UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev  24 Oct 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Alexander Volkanovski defeats Movsar Evloev by KO/TKO

Win Alexander Volkanovski 29-4-0
Loss Movsar Evloev 20-1-0
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 2 · 4:54

Volkanovski vs Evloev — Featherweight Title · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Evloev had success in the opening round and was keeping pace with the champion into the second half of the second.

Late in the second, a clean right hand from Volkanovski made Evloev turn away as he backed out. Volkanovski tracked him down, swarmed with strikes, put him on the canvas and finished it there. The win moved Volkanovski past Jose Aldo for the most title-fight wins in featherweight history.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Volkanovski

Volkanovski's 28-4 record, 5.99 significant strikes landed per minute and 57% striking accuracy give the reigning champion a strong case through sustained scoring over five rounds. His 1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes also offer a change of level if Evloev's wrestling pressure makes a striking-only contest difficult.

Case for Evloev

Evloev brings an unbeaten 20-0 record, 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes and 3.91 significant strikes landed per minute, a profile built to mix wrestling attempts with enough output to keep rounds competitive. His latest UFC-listed win was a five-round decision over Lerone Murphy, evidence on the official record of experience at championship distance.

What We Were Watching For

  • How often Evloev turns his 4.78 takedowns-per-15-minute rate into successful entries against Volkanovski's 69% takedown defense.
  • Whether Volkanovski's 5.99 significant strikes per minute land during Evloev's entries and exits.
  • Does Volkanovski use his own 1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes to interrupt Evloev's wrestling rhythm?
  • Which fighter maintains the cleaner scoring pace as the five-round title distance accumulates?
Records & career stats
Volkanovski vs Evloev
28-4-0
Record
20-0-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
Source pending
Australia
Nationality
Russia
37
Age
32
5′6″168 cm
Height — Evloev leads
5′7″170 cm
71″181 cm
Reach — Evloev leads
73″184 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Not published
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
35%
14
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Volkanovski leads
3
3
Wins by submissionSub wins — Evloev leads
4
5.99
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Volkanovski leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.91
3.31
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Evloev leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.8
59%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
61%
69%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Volkanovski leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
61%
16:50
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
16:00
Freestyle Fighting Gym
Team
American Top Team

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Good Fights
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Good Fights expects Volkanovski’s striking volume and takedown defense to carry the later rounds, and predicts a close decision.

  • Calls Volkanovski by unanimous decision.
“Our main-event pick: Volkanovski by unanimous decision”

* The article was updated on October 19; this records its post-update pick.

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 100.0% (3 hit, 0 miss, across 3 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 3 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 3 resolved calls).

View full track record (3 calls)
Klimentijs Konevs
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Konevs backs Alexander Volkanovski to win, conditional on the champion entering in good form and managing Evloev’s grappling.

“We’ll take our chances with the champion here and back Alexander Volkanovski to win.”

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 2 resolved calls).

View full track record (2 calls)
Evan Theoharis
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Evan Theoharis explicitly selects Alexander Volkanovski over Movsar Evloev; no method or round is stated.

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 1 resolved calls).

View full track record (1 calls)
The Cage Doctor
Hear it — 3:24 The Cage Doctor on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

The Cage Doctor picks Alexander Volkanovski to win.

“I’m very confident that Volk is going to win”

Track record: winner called in 7 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 9 resolved calls).

View full track record (9 calls)
UFC Predict — Logistic Core
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Alexander Volkanovski for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 1:28 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Bedtime MMA gives an early UFC 333 main-event prediction of Alexander Volkanovski by decision over Movsar Evloev.

“I think Volkanovski wins this by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
Travis Herrick MMA
Hear it — 7:19 Travis Herrick MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Travis Herrick MMA picks Alexander Volkanovski, with decision as the primary method and a late TKO only as an alternative possibility.

“I have Volk late round TKO or decision.”

Track record: winner called in 7 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (7 hit, 3 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 40:18 Jimbo Ortega MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Jimbo Ortega MMA picks Alexander Volkanovski by Decision. Mediumish low confidence

“I'm going Vulk by decision. A lot of”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).

View full track record (56 calls)
Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 27:50 Lucas Tracy on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Lucas Tracy trusts Volkanovski's wrestling defense, striking, and pace to take over as Evloev tires late.

Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Tom Feely
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Sherdog preview by Tom Feely names Volkanovski as the pick, by decision.

“The pick is Volkanovski by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).

View full track record (34 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 46:00 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Alexander Volkanovski to win.

* Calls himself a Volkanovski fan; says he would still pick Evloev if he believed Evloev would win.

Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).

View full track record (75 calls)
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 6:54 KennyOkoyeMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

KennyOkoyeMMA gives an early UFC 333 prediction for Alexander Volkanovski by decision over Movsar Evloev.

“4-1 decision by Volk's probably going to happen.”

Track record: winner called in 43 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.2% (43 hit, 22 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 5:52 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski by decision, expecting him to be too strong and difficult to hold down; he also allows for a possible late TKO.

* Calls decision as the primary pick but says a late TKO would not surprise him.

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 18:12 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

JakeGerberMMA picks Alexander Volkanovski to beat Movsar Evloev by a convincing decision.

“...win a convincing decision over the course of 25.”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
Brent Brookhouse
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Alexander Volkanovski to win.

Track record: winner called in 28 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.1% (28 hit, 15 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 22.2% (2 hit, 7 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).

View full track record (43 calls)
Fite Feed
Hear it — 34:20 Fite Feed on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Fite Feed picks Alexander Volkanovski by Decision.

“I got Volke by way of decision.”

Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).

View full track record (37 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 33:34 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

DFS By The Numbers picks Alexander Volkanovski by Decision. Slight lean ('slightly let go' is a caption garble of 'lean').

“So, I'm going to slightly let go with Volkanovski here to win the fight.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
UFC Predict — CatBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Alexander Volkanovski for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
138 MMA
Hear it — 46:05 138 MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

138 MMA picks Alexander Volkanovski, doubting Evloev can outwork or hold him down.

* The pick assumes Volkanovski has not declined; the analyst says he does not think that has happened.

Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 39:27 Livid Larry MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Livid Larry MMA picks Alexander Volkanovski by KO/TKO. Leaning towards TKO (40:43)

“picking him to win this fight to defeat”

Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
Michael Iannone
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Alexander Volkanovski to win.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.5% (15 hit, 9 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).

View full track record (24 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 0:49 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

HopperoMMA picks Alexander Volkanovski over Movsar Evloev without committing to a method or round.

“I've got to go with Volk... I think Volkanovski is going to beat Evloev.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
Michael Bisping
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMichael Bisping on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 24 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 61.5% (24 hit, 15 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).

View full track record (39 calls)
James Lynch
Hear it — 8:48 Gemini YouTube analysisJames Lynch on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

“I am going to go with Alex Volkanovski via decision”

* not super confident in this pick like I think eventually we'll see a decline in Volkanovski but I just don't think this is the fight

Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).

View full track record (59 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 13:57 James Blissett on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Lucrative James gives Volkanovski the nod on skill gap and stylistics (elite anti-wrestler, Evloev has no UFC finishes) while warning it will be close.

“I'm taking Alexander Volkanovski to win this fight via decision as my official pick.”

Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).

View full track record (79 calls)
Garrett Kerman
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Alexander Volkanovski to win.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.6% (20 hit, 13 miss, across 33 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 33 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 33 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 33 resolved calls).

View full track record (33 calls)
Tom Taylor
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Alexander Volkanovski to win.

Track record: winner called in 6 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)
MMA Mathletes
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMMA Mathletes on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
Fight Genie (Claude)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Fight Genie Claude explicitly selects f_c69a05 for Volkanovski–Evloev on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.

Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
The Oracle (Blueprint MMA)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

The Oracle's current published forecast selects Alexander Volkanovski at 51.0%. The source notes that an earlier published version selected Movsar Evloev at 51% before the lock. No method or round is selected.

“Alexander Volkanovski · 51.0%”

Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Artem MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisArtem MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).

View full track record (95 calls)
Michael Mormile
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Alexander Volkanovski to win.

Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.9% (22 hit, 16 miss, across 38 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 38 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 38 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 38 resolved calls).

View full track record (38 calls)
MMA Intel
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

MMA Intel explicitly selects Alexander Volkanovski; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Alexander Volkanovski for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Fight Society
Hear it — 6:24 Fight Society on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Fight Society says Volkanovski is the more skilled and dangerous striker, then makes a primary call for him to coast to a 49-46 decision over Evloev.

“I actually could see a late round finish for Volkanovski, but I think it's more likely we see him coast to a 49-46 decision.”

* The source also allows a late-round finish; only the primary decision call is typed.

Track record: winner called in 4 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (4 hit, 3 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).

View full track record (7 calls)
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Jon Litterine explicitly selects Alexander Volkanovski; no method or round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).

View full track record (124 calls)
Fight Productions
Hear it — 49:35 Fight Productions on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Fight Productions selects Alexander Volkanovski by decision.

“I still think round for round Vulk is the best guy in this weight class, and so I am going to take him to win this one uh by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Fight Genie (GPT)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Fight Genie GPT explicitly selects f_c69a05 for Volkanovski–Evloev on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
MMA.SOCIAL
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

MMA.SOCIAL Staff explicitly picks Alexander Volkanovski by decision; no round is stated.

“MMA.SOCIAL's pick: Volkanovski by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Shakiel Mahjouri
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Alexander Volkanovski to win.

Track record: winner called in 25 of 46 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 54.3% (25 hit, 21 miss, across 46 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (10 hit, 10 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 9 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 46 resolved calls).

View full track record (46 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Schweppe explicitly selects Volkanovski by decision.

Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).

View full track record (99 calls)
Jeff Fox
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Jeff Fox explicitly backs Alexander Volkanovski to retain the UFC featherweight title and labels him the UFC 333 main-card pick. No method or round is selected.

“UFC 333 Main Card Pick: Alexander Volkanovski ML (+100)”

Track record: winner called in 9 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 17 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).

View full track record (17 calls)
TonyHasDiedMMA
Hear it — 3:15 TonyHasDiedMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

TonyHasDiedMMA picks Alexander Volkanovski without committing to a method or round.

“I think Volkanovski is going to dog walk Movsar.”

Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).

View full track record (53 calls)
Steve Garcia
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisSteve Garcia on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.7% (15 hit, 14 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).

View full track record (29 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 78:17 Greedo Plays MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Greedo picks Alexander Volkanovski by decision and forecasts a 50–45 score.

Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).

View full track record (72 calls)
Sean Sheehan
Hear it — 13:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Sheehan picks Volkanovski, saying his control from the outside will be a bit too much, though he believes Volkanovski is no longer the fighter he was.

“I'm picking Volkanovski to win it.”

Track record: winner called in 4 of 8 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 8 resolved calls).

View full track record (8 calls)
Guy Bruhn
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Guy Bruhn picks Alexander Volkanovski, per the Doc's Sports pick line.

“Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Alexander Volkanovski (-109)”

Track record: winner called in 10 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 47.6% (10 hit, 11 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).

View full track record (21 calls)
DON SMOKE MMA
Hear it — 3:22 DON SMOKE MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Don Smoke MMA picks Alexander Volkanovski while allowing for either a late finish or a decision, so method and round remain unspecified.

“Volkanovski is going to be my prediction here… I can see a late finish here, or just great decision”

Track record: winner called in 12 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 46.2% (12 hit, 14 miss, across 26 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 26 resolved calls).

View full track record (26 calls)
Ryan Wohl
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Alexander Volkanovski to win.

Track record: winner called in 6 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 13 resolved calls).

View full track record (13 calls)
Chris Olson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Alexander Volkanovski to win.

Track record: winner called in 32 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 45.1% (32 hit, 39 miss, across 71 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 71 resolved calls).

View full track record (71 calls)
Andrew Sumian
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Combat Press preview by Andrew Sumian leans Volkanovski and foresees a split decision; recorded as a decision win.

“Whatever happens, it is going to be close, and I am foreseeing a split decision.”

Track record: winner called in 18 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 45.0% (18 hit, 22 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).

View full track record (40 calls)
Matthew Petela
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Combat Press preview by Matthew Petela names Volkanovski as the pick, by decision.

“With all that being said, I am going against my typical approach, and I am going to say that Volkanovski wins this fight by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 18 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 45.0% (18 hit, 22 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).

View full track record (40 calls)
Blind Bear MMA
Hear it — 15:05 Blind Bear MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Blind Bear MMA gives an early UFC 333 read favoring Alexander Volkanovski over Movsar Evloev; the source does not state a standard method or round.

“I think Vulcanowski by domination.”

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 3 resolved calls).

View full track record (3 calls)
Chris Faria
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexander Volkanovski

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Alexander Volkanovski to win.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

FightIQ's snapshot explicitly predicts Movsar Evloev at site-displayed confidence of 63%; tier MED.

“We predict Movsar Evloev — 63% confident”

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 86:46 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

AJ Devito picks Movsar Evloev by Decision.

“I'm going with Mozar Avoy to beat him by”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
UFC Predict — Main + Market
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Movsar Evloev for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Mate Bersenadze
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).

View full track record (52 calls)
Next Fight model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Next Fight explicitly selects Movsar Evloev; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 5 of 8 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.5% (5 hit, 3 miss, across 8 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 8 resolved calls).

View full track record (8 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 10:27 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

MMA Joey makes an early UFC 333 prediction for Movsar Evloev, without committing to a method or round.

“I'm almost definitely picking Movsar Evloev.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
Jake Letarski
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

Track record: winner called in 42 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.9% (42 hit, 27 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
Combat Edge Model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Combat Edge Model’s frozen UFC 333 forecast favors Movsar Evloev (65%) over Alexander Volkanovski (35%); the source publishes winner probabilities, not a method or round. Observation snapshot: 2026-10-17 (not asserted as the original publication or lock date); the source labels this forecast version v0.8-2026-10-04.

Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).

View full track record (20 calls)
FightChoice AI ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

FightChoice's AI ensemble selects Movsar Evloev at 57.0% and predicts a decision. Its page cites Evloev's takedown advantage and Elo rating as key drivers.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (5 calls)
Tim Edwards
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.8% (20 hit, 14 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).

View full track record (34 calls)
KingofCrackdown5095
Hear it — 37:26 KingofCrackdown5095 on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

KingofCrackdown5095 picks Movsar Evloev by Decision. low confidence

“got Movsar Evloev via decision. And so,”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).

View full track record (63 calls)
Kunath
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisKunath on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Danny Howard
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 12 resolved calls).

View full track record (12 calls)
Mike Finch
Hear it — 39:10 Mike Finch on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

* Leans toward Evloev while acknowledging Volkanovski’s path to victory and how close the fight could be.

Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
LF MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisLF MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — LightGBM
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Movsar Evloev for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — XGBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Movsar Evloev for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Brian Campbell
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

Track record: winner called in 24 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.8% (24 hit, 19 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.0% (13 hit, 7 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 7.1% (1 hit, 13 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).

View full track record (43 calls)
Ian Undery
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

Track record: winner called in 5 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 9 resolved calls).

View full track record (9 calls)
Kasper MMA
Hear it — 12:15 Gemini YouTube analysisKasper MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

“so I'm picking Evo to win by decision”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).

View full track record (42 calls)
Lou Finocchiaro
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

VSiN analyst Lou Finocchiaro predicts Movsar Evloev to win the title fight; no finish method is stated.

Track record: winner called in 6 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 54.5% (6 hit, 5 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 11 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 11 resolved calls).

View full track record (11 calls)
Aniki MMA
Hear it — 40:33 Gemini YouTube analysisAniki MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

“I will be picking Mavsar Evolv to win this fight via a close 4847 decision”

Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).

View full track record (30 calls)
Half The Battle
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisHalf The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
Voice of MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisVoice of MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).

View full track record (21 calls)
Walk The Line MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisWalk The Line MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
Brandon Wise
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

Track record: winner called in 21 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 48.8% (21 hit, 22 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 8.3% (1 hit, 11 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).

View full track record (43 calls)
Brandon K
Hear it — 5:32 Brandon K on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Brandon K picks Movsar Evloev by decision over Alexander Volkanovski.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 44.4% (20 hit, 25 miss, across 45 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (6 hit, 8 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 45 resolved calls).

View full track record (45 calls)
The Lab Analytics
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

The Lab Analytics' explicit model pick selects Movsar Evloev (61% model probability; MED confidence, VALUE tier). The page publishes no method or round. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 observed page snapshot; no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).

View full track record (25 calls)
Lyle Fitzsimmons
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

Track record: winner called in 4 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)
Ethan Diamandas
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev · Dec

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).

View full track record (5 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

FIGHT//AI's UFC 333 predictions page lists Movsar Evloev over Alexander Volkanovski (51% site-displayed confidence); observed 2026-10-17 as the snapshot date, not an asserted original publication or lock date; no method or round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Geoffrey Ejiga
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win.

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 4 resolved calls).

View full track record (4 calls)
Dalius Mikalauskas
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Selects Movsar Evloev to win the main event; winner only, no method stated as a pick.

“Movsar Evloev to win at 1.90 is the preferred main-event selection.”

Track record: winner called in 1 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).

View full track record (5 calls)
Islam Makhachev
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Movsar Evloev

Fight result: Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO

Islam Makhachev backs Movsar Evloev to dethrone Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 333, citing Evloev’s youth and Volkanovski being past his peak; no method or round is stated.

“I think Movsar will manage with his youth … I hope Movsar will do his job.”

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (2 calls)

Analyst picks: Good Fights Hit; Klimentijs Konevs Hit; Evan Theoharis Hit; The Cage Doctor Hit; UFC Predict — Logistic Core Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Miss; Travis Herrick MMA Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; Tom Feely Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; AJ Devito Miss; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Brent Brookhouse Hit; Fite Feed Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; UFC Predict — CatBoost Hit; UFC Predict — Main + Market Miss; 138 MMA Hit; Mate Bersenadze Miss; Livid Larry MMA Hit; Michael Iannone Hit; Next Fight model Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; HopperMMA Hit; Michael Bisping Hit; James Lynch Hit; Jake Letarski Miss; James Blissett Hit; Garrett Kerman Hit; Combat Edge Model Miss; Tom Taylor Hit; FightChoice AI ensemble Miss; MMA Mathletes Hit; Fight Genie (Claude) Hit; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Hit; Tim Edwards Miss; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Kunath Miss; Danny Howard Miss; Artem MMA Hit; Michael Mormile Hit; Mike Finch Miss; LF MMA Miss; MMA Intel Hit; UFC Predict — Ensemble Hit; UFC Predict — LightGBM Miss; UFC Predict — XGBoost Miss; Fight Society Hit; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Productions Hit; Brian Campbell Miss; Fight Genie (GPT) Hit; MMA.SOCIAL Hit; Ian Undery Miss; Kasper MMA Miss; Lou Finocchiaro Miss; Shakiel Mahjouri Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Aniki MMA Miss; Half The Battle Miss; Jeff Fox Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; Voice of MMA Miss; Steve Garcia Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Walk The Line MMA Miss; Sean Sheehan Hit; Brandon Wise Miss; Guy Bruhn Hit; DON SMOKE MMA Hit; Ryan Wohl Hit; Chris Olson Hit; Andrew Sumian Hit; Matthew Petela Hit; Brandon K Miss; The Lab Analytics Miss; Lyle Fitzsimmons Miss; Ethan Diamandas Miss; Blind Bear MMA Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss; Chris Faria Hit; Geoffrey Ejiga Miss; Dalius Mikalauskas Miss; Islam Makhachev Miss.

55 of 89 called the winner.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Volkanovski · KO/TKO · R2

Closest probability Gemini put 55% on Volkanovski.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
46% Volkanovski
53% Evloev
PickEvloev · DecisionActualVolkanovski · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
51% Volkanovski
48% Evloev
PickVolkanovski · DecisionActualVolkanovski · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook underdogHitSportsbook underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a hit.Sportsbook underdog: underdog call, hit
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
55% Volkanovski
44% Evloev
PickVolkanovski · DecisionActualVolkanovski · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook underdogHitSportsbook underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a hit.Sportsbook underdog: underdog call, hit
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Evloev

    Most likely: Evloev by decision, about 45 in 100

    Win chance: Volkanovski 46%, Evloev 53%, draw or no contest 1%.

    gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct

    Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Volkanovski

    Most likely: Evloev by decision, about 38 in 100

    Win chance: Volkanovski 51%, Evloev 48%, draw or no contest 1%.

    claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct

    Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Volkanovski

    Most likely: Volkanovski by decision, about 43 in 100

    Win chance: Volkanovski 55%, Evloev 44%, draw or no contest 2%.

    Version not reported · 23 Oct

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

2 of 3 models pick Volkanovski; 1 of 3 models pick Evloev.

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Volkanovski: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 51% (about 51 in 100 fights). Evloev: 48%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Evloev: 44%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

  • Claude

    Evloev by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Evloev by decision (45%); 2. Volkanovski by decision (35%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (9%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Evloev by decision: Wins over Murphy, Sterling and Allen support Evloev's ability to win difficult rounds; I expect his wrestling to produce another close decision.
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski's recent clear decision over Lopes supports his remaining championship quality; clean striking and quick escapes offer a strong route.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski has the more plausible striking finish if he repeatedly catches entries or forces Evloev into prolonged exchanges at distance.

  • Claude

    1. Evloev by decision (38%); 2. Volkanovski by decision (37%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (13%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Evloev by decision: Evloev is unbeaten at 20-0, relies on pressure and control, and rarely finishes opponents, so a wrestling-based scorecard win is plausible.
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski's accurate striking and strong takedown defense could win rounds on the feet over five rounds.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski has the power and counter timing to hurt Evloev as he enters range, though Evloev has never been stopped.

  • Gemini

    1. Volkanovski by decision (43%); 2. Evloev by decision (38%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (10%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski combines elite footwork, crisp striking volume, and proven scrambling ability to defend prolonged wrestling exchanges across five rounds.
    • Evloev by decision: Evloev relies on relentless chain wrestling, physical youth, and top control to grind out rounds, having exclusively won on the scorecards in the promotion.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski possesses superior striking mechanics and championship pace to accumulate damage and find a stoppage if Evloev tires from failed takedown entries.
How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    5 of 10, based on Evloev's 53% win chance.

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Volkanovski's 51% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Volkanovski's 55% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 19%. Decision: 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 24%. Decision: 75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 18%. Decision: 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Volkanovski win?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski wins 46%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 35%.

  • Claude

    Volkanovski wins 51%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 37%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski wins 55%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 43%.

How does Evloev win?

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev wins 53%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 4%, decision 45%.

  • Claude

    Evloev wins 48%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%, decision 38%.

  • Gemini

    Evloev wins 44%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 3%, decision 38%.

The fight in one sentence

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favour Evloev to win a competitive decision by making Volkanovski repeatedly defend takedowns and fight through prolonged grappling exchanges.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, tactical five-round contest where Evloev's pressure and control battle Volkanovski's sharper striking, most likely going the distance.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski uses his footwork, scrambling, and crisp striking volume to fend off Evloev's relentless chain wrestling and edge out a competitive five-round decision.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, rounds 4 and 5 are equally likely (24% of finishes each, 5% overall each).

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (23% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 6%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (22% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 4%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 45% (from 46%), Evloev 54% (from 53%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The cost of defending repeated takedowns becomes more important. Volkanovski needs clean breaks that let him resume scoring, while Evloev needs to turn each escape into another wrestling exchange.

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 51% (from 51%), Evloev 48% (from 48%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it gets past round 1, the fight becomes a cumulative-output battle where Evloev's pace and takedown tries are weighed against Volkanovski's accurate counter striking and cage craft.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 55% (from 55%), Evloev 44% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, the bout settles into a high-paced battle of attrition where Volkanovski's calf kicks and jab test whether Evloev can maintain his taxing chain-wrestling tempo.

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski's most likely upset: Volkanovski by decision (35%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski can win by controlling the centre, disrupting entries with his jab and escaping before Evloev establishes damaging positions. Cleaner striking could then decide close rounds.

  • Claude

    Evloev's most likely upset: Evloev by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev wins by repeatedly getting Volkanovski to the fence, banking takedowns and control time, and avoiding big exchanges to take rounds on the scorecards.

  • Gemini

    Evloev's most likely upset: Evloev by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev is most likely to win by relentlessly chaining takedowns against the cage, securing top position, and controlling Volkanovski long enough to take at least three rounds on the scorecards.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski should use feints, straight punches and lateral exits to score while making takedown attempts expensive. Evloev should pressure behind his hands, chain takedowns and add damage whenever he secures top position.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski: use range, leg kicks and counters, stuff takedowns and win the striking rounds. Evloev: pressure to the fence, chain wrestling and control time, and frustrate Volkanovski into a low-output fight.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's best path is using constant lateral movement and jabs to deny takedown entries and outstrike Evloev across five rounds. Evloev's best path is chaining single-leg entries along the fence to secure top control and ride out rounds on the mat.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Volkanovski escapes completely after defending the first takedown, and whether Evloev can approach without absorbing clean punches.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Evloev's first takedown attempts get stuffed or converted, and who controls range and lands the cleaner strikes in the opening exchanges.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Evloev can close the distance to lock his hands on takedowns and how quickly Volkanovski can scramble back to his feet when put against the fence.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Evloev, Claude: Volkanovski, Gemini: Volkanovski).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Evloev by decision (45%).

  • Claude

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Evloev by decision (38%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Volkanovski by decision (43%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    2% (about 2 in 100).

  • Claude

    3% (about 3 in 100).

  • Gemini

    2% (about 2 in 100).

More questions (38)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%, decision 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%, decision 75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

  • Claude

    1%.

  • Gemini

    2%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski: 11%, against 8% for Evloev.

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 14%, against 10% for Evloev.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 12%, against 6% for Evloev.

Can Volkanovski get the finish? Can Evloev?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Evloev: 8% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 4%).

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Evloev: 10% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%).

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Evloev: 6% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 3%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 4%. Evloev is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.

  • Claude

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 4%. Evloev is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 3%. Evloev is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 51% vs 48%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski by decision: 35%. Evloev by decision: 45%.

  • Claude

    Volkanovski by decision: 37%. Evloev by decision: 38%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski by decision: 43%. Evloev by decision: 38%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Claude

    Evloev wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Gemini

    Evloev wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is a compelling tactical contest between an exceptionally adaptable champion and a persistent wrestler who can test every escape.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, an undefeated grinder against an all-time featherweight great is a real style clash with a title at stake, though it may be tactical rather than explosive.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is well worth watching as a high-level clash of elite technical striking and defensive scrambling against relentless, unbeaten chain wrestling.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • ChatGPT

    3%.

  • Claude

    4%.

  • Gemini

    4%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • ChatGPT

    6%.

  • Claude

    10%.

  • Gemini

    7%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • ChatGPT

    Round 5: 5%.

  • Claude

    Round 5: 4%.

  • Gemini

    Round 5: 3%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 75%, submission 25%.

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 81%, submission 19%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 73%, submission 27%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 67%. If it goes longer: Evloev 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 4%, Evloev 2%.

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 62%. If it goes longer: Volkanovski 51%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 6%, Evloev 4%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 62%. If it goes longer: Volkanovski 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 5%, Evloev 3%.

What if 3 questions

If it reaches round 4, who is favoured?

  • ChatGPT

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 44% (from 46%), Evloev 55% (from 53%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favour Evloev if he has forced sustained wrestling beforehand. Volkanovski's pacing and adjustments could reverse that advantage if he keeps exchanges mostly at striking range.

  • Claude

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 50% (from 51%), Evloev 49% (from 48%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev is slightly better placed in rounds 4 and 5 because he is younger and has a steady pace, though Volkanovski's conditioning and experience in five-round fights keep it close.

  • Gemini

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 54% (from 55%), Evloev 45% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the edge in rounds four and five due to his deep championship experience and proven cardio, whereas Evloev's wrestling-heavy style taxes the gas tank heavily over twenty-five minutes.

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 44%, Evloev 56%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 50%, Evloev 50%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 53%, Evloev 47%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev could pull away if he repeatedly traps Volkanovski against the fence and makes every escape exhausting. Volkanovski could dominate if he consistently breaks contact and forces long striking exchanges.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev could dominate if he gets takedowns early and holds control; Volkanovski could dominate if he stuffs wrestling and out-lands him cleanly, with a knockdown possible.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski could make the fight one-sided if he cleanly stuffs early takedowns and picks Evloev apart at range, while Evloev could dominate if he pins Volkanovski down for long stretches.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev's ability to connect successive takedown attempts is the central edge. Defending his first entry may still leave Volkanovski dealing with prolonged clinches and further attempts.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the striking edge in power, accuracy and variety, while Evloev holds the control-wrestling edge; whether takedowns land decides who benefits.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the most important edge with his striking volume and footwork, which allow him to score cleanly from the outside while forcing Evloev to shoot from too far out.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's ability to maintain his movement and explosive escapes through sustained wrestling is the biggest variable.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's age and the wear from past knockout losses against Evloev's unbeaten, durable and relentless approach, plus how judges score control against cleaner striking.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is how much age and accumulated damage have affected Volkanovski's reflexes and scrambling stamina against a younger, physically strong wrestler.

What would change the model's mind?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Volkanovski can repeatedly escape without sacrificing his striking output would move me toward him. Credible evidence of compromised conditioning for either fighter would also materially change the forecast.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence of a weight-cut problem or injury for either fighter, or Volkanovski visibly beating takedowns early or Evloev winning early grappling exchanges, would shift my view.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing signs of physical decline in Volkanovski's speed or takedown defense, or Evloev showing a much more damaging top game over five rounds, would shift the expectation toward Evloev.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's complete injury status or how well Volkanovski's conditioning will hold up under this particular wrestling workload.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not confirm either fighter's camp condition or health, and how Volkanovski's chin and reflexes hold up at age 38.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The main unknowns are how well Volkanovski's athleticism and durability hold up at this stage of his career, and how Evloev's cardio handles a hard five-round championship pace.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Volkanovski to lead the striking through sharper distance management and combinations. I expect Evloev to lead the grappling through chained takedowns and persistent positional pressure.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski should win the striking thanks to better accuracy and power; Evloev should win the grappling through persistent chain wrestling and control.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski wins the striking behind superior speed, feints, and leg kicks, while Evloev wins the grappling through relentless chain wrestling and heavy top rides.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev has a slight projected advantage late if his wrestling has accumulated fatigue. Volkanovski remains dangerous through his pacing and ability to adjust between rounds.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Slightly Evloev, because of his youth and steady pace, but Volkanovski's experience and conditioning in five-round fights mean it is only a small edge.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski is better placed late because his championship five-round conditioning and accumulating calf kicks can slow Evloev's wrestling entries as the fight wears on.

Biggest danger for Volkanovski, and for Evloev

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's biggest danger is spending so much energy escaping that his striking output and movement decline. Evloev's biggest danger is failing to establish useful positions while conceding the cleaner, more damaging punches.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski: being worn down by cage control and takedowns that sway the judges. Evloev: eating clean counters and power shots when he enters range, which could lead to a knockdown.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Volkanovski, the biggest danger is getting trapped against the cage in repetitive wrestling cycles that drain the clock without letting him get his striking going. For Evloev, the biggest danger is tiring from stuffed takedowns and being forced to stand at range with a faster, cleaner striker.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Evloev by decision, 45% here against 38% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Evloev by decision, 38% here against 42% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Volkanovski by decision, 43% here against 36% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Evloev (53%).

  • Claude

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Volkanovski (51%).

  • Gemini

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Volkanovski (55%).

Which model is most confident on Volkanovski, and which on Evloev?

  • All models

    On Volkanovski: Gemini (55%). On Evloev: ChatGPT (53%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Volkanovski by decision: from 35% (ChatGPT) to 43% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Brandon K (Evloev by decision), AJ Devito (Evloev by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Evloev by decision), Walk The Line MMA (Evloev by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Evloev by decision), Brian Campbell (Evloev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Evloev by decision), Danny Howard (Evloev by decision), Ethan Diamandas (Evloev by decision), Ian Undery (Evloev by decision), Brandon Wise (Evloev by decision), Lyle Fitzsimmons (Evloev by decision), Kasper MMA (Evloev by decision) and Aniki MMA (Evloev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Evloev, most likely by decision.

  • Claude

    KennyOkoyeMMA (Volkanovski by decision), The MMA Guru (Volkanovski by decision), Bedtime MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Travis Herrick MMA (Volkanovski by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Society (Volkanovski by decision), Good Fights (Volkanovski by decision), Chris Schweppe (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Productions (Volkanovski by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Volkanovski by decision), James Lynch (Volkanovski by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Volkanovski by decision), Artem MMA (Volkanovski by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Volkanovski by decision), Fite Feed (Volkanovski by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Volkanovski by decision), James Blissett (Volkanovski by decision), Tom Feely (Volkanovski by decision), Andrew Sumian (Volkanovski by decision), Matthew Petela (Volkanovski by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Volkanovski by decision), Michael Mormile (Volkanovski by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Volkanovski by decision) and Garrett Kerman (Volkanovski by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Volkanovski, most likely by decision.

  • Gemini

    KennyOkoyeMMA (Volkanovski by decision), The MMA Guru (Volkanovski by decision), Bedtime MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Travis Herrick MMA (Volkanovski by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Society (Volkanovski by decision), Good Fights (Volkanovski by decision), Chris Schweppe (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Productions (Volkanovski by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Volkanovski by decision), James Lynch (Volkanovski by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Volkanovski by decision), Artem MMA (Volkanovski by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Volkanovski by decision), Fite Feed (Volkanovski by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Volkanovski by decision), James Blissett (Volkanovski by decision), Tom Feely (Volkanovski by decision), Andrew Sumian (Volkanovski by decision), Matthew Petela (Volkanovski by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Volkanovski by decision), Michael Mormile (Volkanovski by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Volkanovski by decision) and Garrett Kerman (Volkanovski by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Volkanovski, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    Claude, which gave the actual result 3%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Evloev

Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Evloev by decision, about 45 in 100

Win chance: Volkanovski 46%, Evloev 53%, draw or no contest 1%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Evloev by decision45%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Wins over Murphy, Sterling and Allen support Evloev's ability to win difficult rounds; I expect his wrestling to produce another close decision.

  2. Volkanovski by decision35%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's recent clear decision over Lopes supports his remaining championship quality; clean striking and quick escapes offer a strong route.

  3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO9%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski has the more plausible striking finish if he repeatedly catches entries or forces Evloev into prolonged exchanges at distance.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO <1%, submission <1%.
  2. Round 2: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  3. Round 3: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  4. Round 4: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission 1%; Evloev KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  5. Round 5: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission 1%; Evloev KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  6. Decision: Volkanovski 35%; Evloev 45%.

Draw or no contest: 1%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in ChatGPT's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3R4R5Decision
Volkanovski KO/TKO2%2%2%2%2%—
Volkanovski Submission<1%<1%<1%1%1%—
Volkanovski Decision—————35%
Evloev KO/TKO<1%1%1%1%1%—
Evloev Submission<1%1%1%1%1%—
Evloev Decision—————45%
Draw or no contest1%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Volkanovski: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 51% (about 51 in 100 fights). Evloev: 48%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Evloev: 44%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Evloev by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Evloev by decision (45%); 2. Volkanovski by decision (35%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (9%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Evloev by decision: Wins over Murphy, Sterling and Allen support Evloev's ability to win difficult rounds; I expect his wrestling to produce another close decision.
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski's recent clear decision over Lopes supports his remaining championship quality; clean striking and quick escapes offer a strong route.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski has the more plausible striking finish if he repeatedly catches entries or forces Evloev into prolonged exchanges at distance.
Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Evloev by decision (38%); 2. Volkanovski by decision (37%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (13%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Evloev by decision: Evloev is unbeaten at 20-0, relies on pressure and control, and rarely finishes opponents, so a wrestling-based scorecard win is plausible.
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski's accurate striking and strong takedown defense could win rounds on the feet over five rounds.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski has the power and counter timing to hurt Evloev as he enters range, though Evloev has never been stopped.

  • Gemini

    1. Volkanovski by decision (43%); 2. Evloev by decision (38%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (10%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski combines elite footwork, crisp striking volume, and proven scrambling ability to defend prolonged wrestling exchanges across five rounds.
    • Evloev by decision: Evloev relies on relentless chain wrestling, physical youth, and top control to grind out rounds, having exclusively won on the scorecards in the promotion.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski possesses superior striking mechanics and championship pace to accumulate damage and find a stoppage if Evloev tires from failed takedown entries.
How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    5 of 10, based on Evloev's 53% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Volkanovski's 51% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Volkanovski's 55% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 19%. Decision: 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 24%. Decision: 75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 18%. Decision: 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Volkanovski win?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski wins 46%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 35%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Volkanovski wins 51%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 37%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski wins 55%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 43%.

How does Evloev win?

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev wins 53%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 4%, decision 45%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Evloev wins 48%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%, decision 38%.

  • Gemini

    Evloev wins 44%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 3%, decision 38%.

The fight in one sentence

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favour Evloev to win a competitive decision by making Volkanovski repeatedly defend takedowns and fight through prolonged grappling exchanges.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, tactical five-round contest where Evloev's pressure and control battle Volkanovski's sharper striking, most likely going the distance.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski uses his footwork, scrambling, and crisp striking volume to fend off Evloev's relentless chain wrestling and edge out a competitive five-round decision.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, rounds 4 and 5 are equally likely (24% of finishes each, 5% overall each).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (23% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 6%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (22% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 4%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 45% (from 46%), Evloev 54% (from 53%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The cost of defending repeated takedowns becomes more important. Volkanovski needs clean breaks that let him resume scoring, while Evloev needs to turn each escape into another wrestling exchange.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 51% (from 51%), Evloev 48% (from 48%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it gets past round 1, the fight becomes a cumulative-output battle where Evloev's pace and takedown tries are weighed against Volkanovski's accurate counter striking and cage craft.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 55% (from 55%), Evloev 44% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, the bout settles into a high-paced battle of attrition where Volkanovski's calf kicks and jab test whether Evloev can maintain his taxing chain-wrestling tempo.

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski's most likely upset: Volkanovski by decision (35%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski can win by controlling the centre, disrupting entries with his jab and escaping before Evloev establishes damaging positions. Cleaner striking could then decide close rounds.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Evloev's most likely upset: Evloev by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev wins by repeatedly getting Volkanovski to the fence, banking takedowns and control time, and avoiding big exchanges to take rounds on the scorecards.

  • Gemini

    Evloev's most likely upset: Evloev by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev is most likely to win by relentlessly chaining takedowns against the cage, securing top position, and controlling Volkanovski long enough to take at least three rounds on the scorecards.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski should use feints, straight punches and lateral exits to score while making takedown attempts expensive. Evloev should pressure behind his hands, chain takedowns and add damage whenever he secures top position.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski: use range, leg kicks and counters, stuff takedowns and win the striking rounds. Evloev: pressure to the fence, chain wrestling and control time, and frustrate Volkanovski into a low-output fight.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's best path is using constant lateral movement and jabs to deny takedown entries and outstrike Evloev across five rounds. Evloev's best path is chaining single-leg entries along the fence to secure top control and ride out rounds on the mat.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Volkanovski escapes completely after defending the first takedown, and whether Evloev can approach without absorbing clean punches.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Evloev's first takedown attempts get stuffed or converted, and who controls range and lands the cleaner strikes in the opening exchanges.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Evloev can close the distance to lock his hands on takedowns and how quickly Volkanovski can scramble back to his feet when put against the fence.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Evloev, Claude: Volkanovski, Gemini: Volkanovski).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Evloev by decision (45%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Evloev by decision (38%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Volkanovski by decision (43%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    2% (about 2 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    3% (about 3 in 100).

More questions (38)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%, decision 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%, decision 75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    2%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski: 11%, against 8% for Evloev.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 14%, against 10% for Evloev.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 12%, against 6% for Evloev.

Can Volkanovski get the finish? Can Evloev?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Evloev: 8% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 4%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Evloev: 10% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%).

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Evloev: 6% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 3%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 4%. Evloev is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 4%. Evloev is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 3%. Evloev is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 51% vs 48%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski by decision: 35%. Evloev by decision: 45%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Volkanovski by decision: 37%. Evloev by decision: 38%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski by decision: 43%. Evloev by decision: 38%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Evloev wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Gemini

    Evloev wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is a compelling tactical contest between an exceptionally adaptable champion and a persistent wrestler who can test every escape.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, an undefeated grinder against an all-time featherweight great is a real style clash with a title at stake, though it may be tactical rather than explosive.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is well worth watching as a high-level clash of elite technical striking and defensive scrambling against relentless, unbeaten chain wrestling.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • ChatGPT

    3%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    4%.

  • Gemini

    4%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • ChatGPT

    6%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    10%.

  • Gemini

    7%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • ChatGPT

    Round 5: 5%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Round 5: 4%.

  • Gemini

    Round 5: 3%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 75%, submission 25%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 81%, submission 19%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 73%, submission 27%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 67%. If it goes longer: Evloev 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 4%, Evloev 2%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 62%. If it goes longer: Volkanovski 51%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 6%, Evloev 4%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 62%. If it goes longer: Volkanovski 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 5%, Evloev 3%.

What if 3 questions

If it reaches round 4, who is favoured?

  • ChatGPT

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 44% (from 46%), Evloev 55% (from 53%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favour Evloev if he has forced sustained wrestling beforehand. Volkanovski's pacing and adjustments could reverse that advantage if he keeps exchanges mostly at striking range.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 50% (from 51%), Evloev 49% (from 48%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev is slightly better placed in rounds 4 and 5 because he is younger and has a steady pace, though Volkanovski's conditioning and experience in five-round fights keep it close.

  • Gemini

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 54% (from 55%), Evloev 45% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the edge in rounds four and five due to his deep championship experience and proven cardio, whereas Evloev's wrestling-heavy style taxes the gas tank heavily over twenty-five minutes.

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 44%, Evloev 56%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 50%, Evloev 50%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 53%, Evloev 47%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev could pull away if he repeatedly traps Volkanovski against the fence and makes every escape exhausting. Volkanovski could dominate if he consistently breaks contact and forces long striking exchanges.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev could dominate if he gets takedowns early and holds control; Volkanovski could dominate if he stuffs wrestling and out-lands him cleanly, with a knockdown possible.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski could make the fight one-sided if he cleanly stuffs early takedowns and picks Evloev apart at range, while Evloev could dominate if he pins Volkanovski down for long stretches.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev's ability to connect successive takedown attempts is the central edge. Defending his first entry may still leave Volkanovski dealing with prolonged clinches and further attempts.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the striking edge in power, accuracy and variety, while Evloev holds the control-wrestling edge; whether takedowns land decides who benefits.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the most important edge with his striking volume and footwork, which allow him to score cleanly from the outside while forcing Evloev to shoot from too far out.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's ability to maintain his movement and explosive escapes through sustained wrestling is the biggest variable.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's age and the wear from past knockout losses against Evloev's unbeaten, durable and relentless approach, plus how judges score control against cleaner striking.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is how much age and accumulated damage have affected Volkanovski's reflexes and scrambling stamina against a younger, physically strong wrestler.

What would change the model's mind?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Volkanovski can repeatedly escape without sacrificing his striking output would move me toward him. Credible evidence of compromised conditioning for either fighter would also materially change the forecast.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence of a weight-cut problem or injury for either fighter, or Volkanovski visibly beating takedowns early or Evloev winning early grappling exchanges, would shift my view.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing signs of physical decline in Volkanovski's speed or takedown defense, or Evloev showing a much more damaging top game over five rounds, would shift the expectation toward Evloev.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's complete injury status or how well Volkanovski's conditioning will hold up under this particular wrestling workload.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not confirm either fighter's camp condition or health, and how Volkanovski's chin and reflexes hold up at age 38.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The main unknowns are how well Volkanovski's athleticism and durability hold up at this stage of his career, and how Evloev's cardio handles a hard five-round championship pace.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Volkanovski to lead the striking through sharper distance management and combinations. I expect Evloev to lead the grappling through chained takedowns and persistent positional pressure.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski should win the striking thanks to better accuracy and power; Evloev should win the grappling through persistent chain wrestling and control.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski wins the striking behind superior speed, feints, and leg kicks, while Evloev wins the grappling through relentless chain wrestling and heavy top rides.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev has a slight projected advantage late if his wrestling has accumulated fatigue. Volkanovski remains dangerous through his pacing and ability to adjust between rounds.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Slightly Evloev, because of his youth and steady pace, but Volkanovski's experience and conditioning in five-round fights mean it is only a small edge.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski is better placed late because his championship five-round conditioning and accumulating calf kicks can slow Evloev's wrestling entries as the fight wears on.

Biggest danger for Volkanovski, and for Evloev

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's biggest danger is spending so much energy escaping that his striking output and movement decline. Evloev's biggest danger is failing to establish useful positions while conceding the cleaner, more damaging punches.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski: being worn down by cage control and takedowns that sway the judges. Evloev: eating clean counters and power shots when he enters range, which could lead to a knockdown.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Volkanovski, the biggest danger is getting trapped against the cage in repetitive wrestling cycles that drain the clock without letting him get his striking going. For Evloev, the biggest danger is tiring from stuffed takedowns and being forced to stand at range with a faster, cleaner striker.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Evloev by decision, 45% here against 38% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Evloev by decision, 38% here against 42% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Volkanovski by decision, 43% here against 36% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Evloev (53%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Volkanovski (51%).

  • Gemini

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Volkanovski (55%).

Which model is most confident on Volkanovski, and which on Evloev?

  • ChatGPT

    On Volkanovski: Gemini (55%). On Evloev: ChatGPT (53%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski by decision: from 35% (ChatGPT) to 43% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Brandon K (Evloev by decision), AJ Devito (Evloev by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Evloev by decision), Walk The Line MMA (Evloev by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Evloev by decision), Brian Campbell (Evloev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Evloev by decision), Danny Howard (Evloev by decision), Ethan Diamandas (Evloev by decision), Ian Undery (Evloev by decision), Brandon Wise (Evloev by decision), Lyle Fitzsimmons (Evloev by decision), Kasper MMA (Evloev by decision) and Aniki MMA (Evloev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Evloev, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KennyOkoyeMMA (Volkanovski by decision), The MMA Guru (Volkanovski by decision), Bedtime MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Travis Herrick MMA (Volkanovski by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Society (Volkanovski by decision), Good Fights (Volkanovski by decision), Chris Schweppe (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Productions (Volkanovski by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Volkanovski by decision), James Lynch (Volkanovski by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Volkanovski by decision), Artem MMA (Volkanovski by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Volkanovski by decision), Fite Feed (Volkanovski by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Volkanovski by decision), James Blissett (Volkanovski by decision), Tom Feely (Volkanovski by decision), Andrew Sumian (Volkanovski by decision), Matthew Petela (Volkanovski by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Volkanovski by decision), Michael Mormile (Volkanovski by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Volkanovski by decision) and Garrett Kerman (Volkanovski by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Volkanovski, most likely by decision.

  • Gemini

    KennyOkoyeMMA (Volkanovski by decision), The MMA Guru (Volkanovski by decision), Bedtime MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Travis Herrick MMA (Volkanovski by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Society (Volkanovski by decision), Good Fights (Volkanovski by decision), Chris Schweppe (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Productions (Volkanovski by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Volkanovski by decision), James Lynch (Volkanovski by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Volkanovski by decision), Artem MMA (Volkanovski by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Volkanovski by decision), Fite Feed (Volkanovski by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Volkanovski by decision), James Blissett (Volkanovski by decision), Tom Feely (Volkanovski by decision), Andrew Sumian (Volkanovski by decision), Matthew Petela (Volkanovski by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Volkanovski by decision), Michael Mormile (Volkanovski by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Volkanovski by decision) and Garrett Kerman (Volkanovski by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Volkanovski, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    Claude, which gave the actual result 3%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Volkanovski

Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Evloev by decision, about 38 in 100

Win chance: Volkanovski 51%, Evloev 48%, draw or no contest 1%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Evloev by decision38%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev is unbeaten at 20-0, relies on pressure and control, and rarely finishes opponents, so a wrestling-based scorecard win is plausible.

  2. Volkanovski by decision37%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's accurate striking and strong takedown defense could win rounds on the feet over five rounds.

  3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO13%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski has the power and counter timing to hurt Evloev as he enters range, though Evloev has never been stopped.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  2. Round 2: Volkanovski KO/TKO 3%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 2%, submission 1%.
  3. Round 3: Volkanovski KO/TKO 3%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 2%, submission 1%.
  4. Round 4: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 2%, submission 1%.
  5. Round 5: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  6. Decision: Volkanovski 37%; Evloev 38%.

Draw or no contest: 1%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in Claude's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3R4R5Decision
Volkanovski KO/TKO2%3%3%2%2%—
Volkanovski Submission<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%—
Volkanovski Decision—————37%
Evloev KO/TKO1%2%2%2%1%—
Evloev Submission1%1%1%1%1%—
Evloev Decision—————38%
Draw or no contest1%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 51% (about 51 in 100 fights). Evloev: 48%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Volkanovski: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Evloev: 44%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Evloev by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Evloev by decision (38%); 2. Volkanovski by decision (37%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (13%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Evloev by decision: Evloev is unbeaten at 20-0, relies on pressure and control, and rarely finishes opponents, so a wrestling-based scorecard win is plausible.
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski's accurate striking and strong takedown defense could win rounds on the feet over five rounds.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski has the power and counter timing to hurt Evloev as he enters range, though Evloev has never been stopped.
Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Evloev by decision (45%); 2. Volkanovski by decision (35%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (9%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Evloev by decision: Wins over Murphy, Sterling and Allen support Evloev's ability to win difficult rounds; I expect his wrestling to produce another close decision.
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski's recent clear decision over Lopes supports his remaining championship quality; clean striking and quick escapes offer a strong route.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski has the more plausible striking finish if he repeatedly catches entries or forces Evloev into prolonged exchanges at distance.

  • Gemini

    1. Volkanovski by decision (43%); 2. Evloev by decision (38%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (10%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski combines elite footwork, crisp striking volume, and proven scrambling ability to defend prolonged wrestling exchanges across five rounds.
    • Evloev by decision: Evloev relies on relentless chain wrestling, physical youth, and top control to grind out rounds, having exclusively won on the scorecards in the promotion.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski possesses superior striking mechanics and championship pace to accumulate damage and find a stoppage if Evloev tires from failed takedown entries.
How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Volkanovski's 51% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    5 of 10, based on Evloev's 53% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Volkanovski's 55% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 24%. Decision: 75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 19%. Decision: 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 18%. Decision: 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Volkanovski win?

  • Claude

    Volkanovski wins 51%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 37%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski wins 46%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 35%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski wins 55%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 43%.

How does Evloev win?

  • Claude

    Evloev wins 48%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%, decision 38%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev wins 53%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 4%, decision 45%.

  • Gemini

    Evloev wins 44%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 3%, decision 38%.

The fight in one sentence

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, tactical five-round contest where Evloev's pressure and control battle Volkanovski's sharper striking, most likely going the distance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favour Evloev to win a competitive decision by making Volkanovski repeatedly defend takedowns and fight through prolonged grappling exchanges.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski uses his footwork, scrambling, and crisp striking volume to fend off Evloev's relentless chain wrestling and edge out a competitive five-round decision.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (23% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 6%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, rounds 4 and 5 are equally likely (24% of finishes each, 5% overall each).

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (22% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 4%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 51% (from 51%), Evloev 48% (from 48%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it gets past round 1, the fight becomes a cumulative-output battle where Evloev's pace and takedown tries are weighed against Volkanovski's accurate counter striking and cage craft.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 45% (from 46%), Evloev 54% (from 53%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The cost of defending repeated takedowns becomes more important. Volkanovski needs clean breaks that let him resume scoring, while Evloev needs to turn each escape into another wrestling exchange.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 55% (from 55%), Evloev 44% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, the bout settles into a high-paced battle of attrition where Volkanovski's calf kicks and jab test whether Evloev can maintain his taxing chain-wrestling tempo.

What is the upset path?

  • Claude

    Evloev's most likely upset: Evloev by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev wins by repeatedly getting Volkanovski to the fence, banking takedowns and control time, and avoiding big exchanges to take rounds on the scorecards.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski's most likely upset: Volkanovski by decision (35%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski can win by controlling the centre, disrupting entries with his jab and escaping before Evloev establishes damaging positions. Cleaner striking could then decide close rounds.

  • Gemini

    Evloev's most likely upset: Evloev by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev is most likely to win by relentlessly chaining takedowns against the cage, securing top position, and controlling Volkanovski long enough to take at least three rounds on the scorecards.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski: use range, leg kicks and counters, stuff takedowns and win the striking rounds. Evloev: pressure to the fence, chain wrestling and control time, and frustrate Volkanovski into a low-output fight.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski should use feints, straight punches and lateral exits to score while making takedown attempts expensive. Evloev should pressure behind his hands, chain takedowns and add damage whenever he secures top position.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's best path is using constant lateral movement and jabs to deny takedown entries and outstrike Evloev across five rounds. Evloev's best path is chaining single-leg entries along the fence to secure top control and ride out rounds on the mat.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Evloev's first takedown attempts get stuffed or converted, and who controls range and lands the cleaner strikes in the opening exchanges.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Volkanovski escapes completely after defending the first takedown, and whether Evloev can approach without absorbing clean punches.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Evloev can close the distance to lock his hands on takedowns and how quickly Volkanovski can scramble back to his feet when put against the fence.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Evloev, Claude: Volkanovski, Gemini: Volkanovski).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Evloev by decision (38%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Evloev by decision (45%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Volkanovski by decision (43%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    3% (about 3 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    2% (about 2 in 100).

  • Gemini

    2% (about 2 in 100).

More questions (38)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%, decision 75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%, decision 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • Claude

    1%.

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    2%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 14%, against 10% for Evloev.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski: 11%, against 8% for Evloev.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 12%, against 6% for Evloev.

Can Volkanovski get the finish? Can Evloev?

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Evloev: 10% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Evloev: 8% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 4%).

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Evloev: 6% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 3%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 4%. Evloev is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 4%. Evloev is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 3%. Evloev is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 51% vs 48%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Claude

    Volkanovski by decision: 37%. Evloev by decision: 38%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski by decision: 35%. Evloev by decision: 45%.

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski by decision: 43%. Evloev by decision: 38%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Evloev wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Gemini

    Evloev wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, an undefeated grinder against an all-time featherweight great is a real style clash with a title at stake, though it may be tactical rather than explosive.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is a compelling tactical contest between an exceptionally adaptable champion and a persistent wrestler who can test every escape.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is well worth watching as a high-level clash of elite technical striking and defensive scrambling against relentless, unbeaten chain wrestling.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • Claude

    4%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    3%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • Claude

    10%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6%.

  • Gemini

    7%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • Claude

    Round 5: 4%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Round 5: 5%.

  • Gemini

    Round 5: 3%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 81%, submission 19%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 75%, submission 25%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 73%, submission 27%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 62%. If it goes longer: Volkanovski 51%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 6%, Evloev 4%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 67%. If it goes longer: Evloev 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 4%, Evloev 2%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 62%. If it goes longer: Volkanovski 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 5%, Evloev 3%.

What if 3 questions

If it reaches round 4, who is favoured?

  • Claude

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 50% (from 51%), Evloev 49% (from 48%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev is slightly better placed in rounds 4 and 5 because he is younger and has a steady pace, though Volkanovski's conditioning and experience in five-round fights keep it close.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 44% (from 46%), Evloev 55% (from 53%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favour Evloev if he has forced sustained wrestling beforehand. Volkanovski's pacing and adjustments could reverse that advantage if he keeps exchanges mostly at striking range.

  • Gemini

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 54% (from 55%), Evloev 45% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the edge in rounds four and five due to his deep championship experience and proven cardio, whereas Evloev's wrestling-heavy style taxes the gas tank heavily over twenty-five minutes.

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 50%, Evloev 50%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 44%, Evloev 56%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 53%, Evloev 47%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev could dominate if he gets takedowns early and holds control; Volkanovski could dominate if he stuffs wrestling and out-lands him cleanly, with a knockdown possible.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev could pull away if he repeatedly traps Volkanovski against the fence and makes every escape exhausting. Volkanovski could dominate if he consistently breaks contact and forces long striking exchanges.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski could make the fight one-sided if he cleanly stuffs early takedowns and picks Evloev apart at range, while Evloev could dominate if he pins Volkanovski down for long stretches.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the striking edge in power, accuracy and variety, while Evloev holds the control-wrestling edge; whether takedowns land decides who benefits.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev's ability to connect successive takedown attempts is the central edge. Defending his first entry may still leave Volkanovski dealing with prolonged clinches and further attempts.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the most important edge with his striking volume and footwork, which allow him to score cleanly from the outside while forcing Evloev to shoot from too far out.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's age and the wear from past knockout losses against Evloev's unbeaten, durable and relentless approach, plus how judges score control against cleaner striking.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's ability to maintain his movement and explosive escapes through sustained wrestling is the biggest variable.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is how much age and accumulated damage have affected Volkanovski's reflexes and scrambling stamina against a younger, physically strong wrestler.

What would change the model's mind?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence of a weight-cut problem or injury for either fighter, or Volkanovski visibly beating takedowns early or Evloev winning early grappling exchanges, would shift my view.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Volkanovski can repeatedly escape without sacrificing his striking output would move me toward him. Credible evidence of compromised conditioning for either fighter would also materially change the forecast.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing signs of physical decline in Volkanovski's speed or takedown defense, or Evloev showing a much more damaging top game over five rounds, would shift the expectation toward Evloev.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not confirm either fighter's camp condition or health, and how Volkanovski's chin and reflexes hold up at age 38.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's complete injury status or how well Volkanovski's conditioning will hold up under this particular wrestling workload.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The main unknowns are how well Volkanovski's athleticism and durability hold up at this stage of his career, and how Evloev's cardio handles a hard five-round championship pace.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski should win the striking thanks to better accuracy and power; Evloev should win the grappling through persistent chain wrestling and control.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Volkanovski to lead the striking through sharper distance management and combinations. I expect Evloev to lead the grappling through chained takedowns and persistent positional pressure.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski wins the striking behind superior speed, feints, and leg kicks, while Evloev wins the grappling through relentless chain wrestling and heavy top rides.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Slightly Evloev, because of his youth and steady pace, but Volkanovski's experience and conditioning in five-round fights mean it is only a small edge.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev has a slight projected advantage late if his wrestling has accumulated fatigue. Volkanovski remains dangerous through his pacing and ability to adjust between rounds.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski is better placed late because his championship five-round conditioning and accumulating calf kicks can slow Evloev's wrestling entries as the fight wears on.

Biggest danger for Volkanovski, and for Evloev

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski: being worn down by cage control and takedowns that sway the judges. Evloev: eating clean counters and power shots when he enters range, which could lead to a knockdown.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's biggest danger is spending so much energy escaping that his striking output and movement decline. Evloev's biggest danger is failing to establish useful positions while conceding the cleaner, more damaging punches.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Volkanovski, the biggest danger is getting trapped against the cage in repetitive wrestling cycles that drain the clock without letting him get his striking going. For Evloev, the biggest danger is tiring from stuffed takedowns and being forced to stand at range with a faster, cleaner striker.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Evloev by decision, 38% here against 42% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Evloev by decision, 45% here against 38% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Volkanovski by decision, 43% here against 36% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Volkanovski (51%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Evloev (53%).

  • Gemini

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Volkanovski (55%).

Which model is most confident on Volkanovski, and which on Evloev?

  • Claude

    On Volkanovski: Gemini (55%). On Evloev: ChatGPT (53%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Volkanovski by decision: from 35% (ChatGPT) to 43% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    KennyOkoyeMMA (Volkanovski by decision), The MMA Guru (Volkanovski by decision), Bedtime MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Travis Herrick MMA (Volkanovski by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Society (Volkanovski by decision), Good Fights (Volkanovski by decision), Chris Schweppe (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Productions (Volkanovski by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Volkanovski by decision), James Lynch (Volkanovski by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Volkanovski by decision), Artem MMA (Volkanovski by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Volkanovski by decision), Fite Feed (Volkanovski by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Volkanovski by decision), James Blissett (Volkanovski by decision), Tom Feely (Volkanovski by decision), Andrew Sumian (Volkanovski by decision), Matthew Petela (Volkanovski by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Volkanovski by decision), Michael Mormile (Volkanovski by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Volkanovski by decision) and Garrett Kerman (Volkanovski by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Volkanovski, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Brandon K (Evloev by decision), AJ Devito (Evloev by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Evloev by decision), Walk The Line MMA (Evloev by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Evloev by decision), Brian Campbell (Evloev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Evloev by decision), Danny Howard (Evloev by decision), Ethan Diamandas (Evloev by decision), Ian Undery (Evloev by decision), Brandon Wise (Evloev by decision), Lyle Fitzsimmons (Evloev by decision), Kasper MMA (Evloev by decision) and Aniki MMA (Evloev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Evloev, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    Claude, which gave the actual result 3%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Volkanovski

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Volkanovski by decision, about 43 in 100

Win chance: Volkanovski 55%, Evloev 44%, draw or no contest 2%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Volkanovski by decision43%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski combines elite footwork, crisp striking volume, and proven scrambling ability to defend prolonged wrestling exchanges across five rounds.

  2. Evloev by decision38%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev relies on relentless chain wrestling, physical youth, and top control to grind out rounds, having exclusively won on the scorecards in the promotion.

  3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO10%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski possesses superior striking mechanics and championship pace to accumulate damage and find a stoppage if Evloev tires from failed takedown entries.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  2. Round 2: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  3. Round 3: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  4. Round 4: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO 1%, submission <1%.
  5. Round 5: Volkanovski KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Evloev KO/TKO <1%, submission <1%.
  6. Decision: Volkanovski 43%; Evloev 38%.

Draw or no contest: 2%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in Gemini's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3R4R5Decision
Volkanovski KO/TKO2%2%2%2%2%—
Volkanovski Submission<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%—
Volkanovski Decision—————43%
Evloev KO/TKO1%1%1%1%<1%—
Evloev Submission1%1%1%<1%<1%—
Evloev Decision—————38%
Draw or no contest2%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Evloev: 44%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Volkanovski: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 51% (about 51 in 100 fights). Evloev: 48%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski by decision: 43% (about 43 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

  • Claude

    Evloev by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Volkanovski by decision (43%); 2. Evloev by decision (38%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (10%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski combines elite footwork, crisp striking volume, and proven scrambling ability to defend prolonged wrestling exchanges across five rounds.
    • Evloev by decision: Evloev relies on relentless chain wrestling, physical youth, and top control to grind out rounds, having exclusively won on the scorecards in the promotion.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski possesses superior striking mechanics and championship pace to accumulate damage and find a stoppage if Evloev tires from failed takedown entries.
Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Evloev by decision (45%); 2. Volkanovski by decision (35%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (9%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Evloev by decision: Wins over Murphy, Sterling and Allen support Evloev's ability to win difficult rounds; I expect his wrestling to produce another close decision.
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski's recent clear decision over Lopes supports his remaining championship quality; clean striking and quick escapes offer a strong route.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski has the more plausible striking finish if he repeatedly catches entries or forces Evloev into prolonged exchanges at distance.

  • Claude

    1. Evloev by decision (38%); 2. Volkanovski by decision (37%); 3. Volkanovski by KO/TKO (13%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Evloev by decision: Evloev is unbeaten at 20-0, relies on pressure and control, and rarely finishes opponents, so a wrestling-based scorecard win is plausible.
    • Volkanovski by decision: Volkanovski's accurate striking and strong takedown defense could win rounds on the feet over five rounds.
    • Volkanovski by KO/TKO: Volkanovski has the power and counter timing to hurt Evloev as he enters range, though Evloev has never been stopped.
How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Volkanovski's 55% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    5 of 10, based on Evloev's 53% win chance.

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Volkanovski's 51% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 18%. Decision: 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 19%. Decision: 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 24%. Decision: 75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

How does Volkanovski win?

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski wins 55%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 43%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski wins 46%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%, decision 35%.

  • Claude

    Volkanovski wins 51%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%, decision 37%.

How does Evloev win?

  • Gemini

    Evloev wins 44%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 3%, decision 38%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Evloev wins 53%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 4%, decision 45%.

  • Claude

    Evloev wins 48%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%, decision 38%.

The fight in one sentence

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski uses his footwork, scrambling, and crisp striking volume to fend off Evloev's relentless chain wrestling and edge out a competitive five-round decision.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favour Evloev to win a competitive decision by making Volkanovski repeatedly defend takedowns and fight through prolonged grappling exchanges.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, tactical five-round contest where Evloev's pressure and control battle Volkanovski's sharper striking, most likely going the distance.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (22% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 4%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, rounds 4 and 5 are equally likely (24% of finishes each, 5% overall each).

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (23% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 6%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 55% (from 55%), Evloev 44% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, the bout settles into a high-paced battle of attrition where Volkanovski's calf kicks and jab test whether Evloev can maintain his taxing chain-wrestling tempo.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 45% (from 46%), Evloev 54% (from 53%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The cost of defending repeated takedowns becomes more important. Volkanovski needs clean breaks that let him resume scoring, while Evloev needs to turn each escape into another wrestling exchange.

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Volkanovski 51% (from 51%), Evloev 48% (from 48%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it gets past round 1, the fight becomes a cumulative-output battle where Evloev's pace and takedown tries are weighed against Volkanovski's accurate counter striking and cage craft.

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Evloev's most likely upset: Evloev by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev is most likely to win by relentlessly chaining takedowns against the cage, securing top position, and controlling Volkanovski long enough to take at least three rounds on the scorecards.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski's most likely upset: Volkanovski by decision (35%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski can win by controlling the centre, disrupting entries with his jab and escaping before Evloev establishes damaging positions. Cleaner striking could then decide close rounds.

  • Claude

    Evloev's most likely upset: Evloev by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev wins by repeatedly getting Volkanovski to the fence, banking takedowns and control time, and avoiding big exchanges to take rounds on the scorecards.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's best path is using constant lateral movement and jabs to deny takedown entries and outstrike Evloev across five rounds. Evloev's best path is chaining single-leg entries along the fence to secure top control and ride out rounds on the mat.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski should use feints, straight punches and lateral exits to score while making takedown attempts expensive. Evloev should pressure behind his hands, chain takedowns and add damage whenever he secures top position.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski: use range, leg kicks and counters, stuff takedowns and win the striking rounds. Evloev: pressure to the fence, chain wrestling and control time, and frustrate Volkanovski into a low-output fight.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Evloev can close the distance to lock his hands on takedowns and how quickly Volkanovski can scramble back to his feet when put against the fence.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Volkanovski escapes completely after defending the first takedown, and whether Evloev can approach without absorbing clean punches.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Evloev's first takedown attempts get stuffed or converted, and who controls range and lands the cleaner strikes in the opening exchanges.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Evloev, Claude: Volkanovski, Gemini: Volkanovski).

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Volkanovski by decision (43%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Evloev by decision (45%).

  • Claude

    Result: Volkanovski by KO/TKO in round 2. Volkanovski by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Evloev by decision (38%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    2% (about 2 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    3% (about 3 in 100).

More questions (38)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%, decision 80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%, decision 75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • Gemini

    2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

  • Claude

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 12%, against 6% for Evloev.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski: 11%, against 8% for Evloev.

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 14%, against 10% for Evloev.

Can Volkanovski get the finish? Can Evloev?

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Evloev: 6% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 3%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski: 11% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%). Evloev: 8% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 4%).

  • Claude

    Volkanovski: 14% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 1%). Evloev: 10% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 4%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 3%. Evloev is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 4%. Evloev is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 2%.

  • Claude

    Volkanovski is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 4%. Evloev is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 51% vs 48%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski by decision: 43%. Evloev by decision: 38%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski by decision: 35%. Evloev by decision: 45%.

  • Claude

    Volkanovski by decision: 37%. Evloev by decision: 38%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Evloev wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Volkanovski wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Claude

    Evloev wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 12th most likely to end early.

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 13th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is well worth watching as a high-level clash of elite technical striking and defensive scrambling against relentless, unbeaten chain wrestling.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is a compelling tactical contest between an exceptionally adaptable champion and a persistent wrestler who can test every escape.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, an undefeated grinder against an all-time featherweight great is a real style clash with a title at stake, though it may be tactical rather than explosive.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • Gemini

    4%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    3%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • Gemini

    7%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6%.

  • Claude

    10%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    81%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    80%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    75%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • Gemini

    Round 5: 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Round 5: 5%.

  • Claude

    Round 5: 4%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 73%, submission 27%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 75%, submission 25%.

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 81%, submission 19%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 62%. If it goes longer: Volkanovski 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 5%, Evloev 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 67%. If it goes longer: Evloev 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 4%, Evloev 2%.

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 62%. If it goes longer: Volkanovski 51%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Volkanovski 6%, Evloev 4%.

What if 3 questions

If it reaches round 4, who is favoured?

  • Gemini

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 54% (from 55%), Evloev 45% (from 44%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the edge in rounds four and five due to his deep championship experience and proven cardio, whereas Evloev's wrestling-heavy style taxes the gas tank heavily over twenty-five minutes.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 44% (from 46%), Evloev 55% (from 53%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favour Evloev if he has forced sustained wrestling beforehand. Volkanovski's pacing and adjustments could reverse that advantage if he keeps exchanges mostly at striking range.

  • Claude

    If it reaches round 4: Volkanovski 50% (from 51%), Evloev 49% (from 48%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev is slightly better placed in rounds 4 and 5 because he is younger and has a steady pace, though Volkanovski's conditioning and experience in five-round fights keep it close.

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 53%, Evloev 47%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 44%, Evloev 56%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Volkanovski 50%, Evloev 50%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski could make the fight one-sided if he cleanly stuffs early takedowns and picks Evloev apart at range, while Evloev could dominate if he pins Volkanovski down for long stretches.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev could pull away if he repeatedly traps Volkanovski against the fence and makes every escape exhausting. Volkanovski could dominate if he consistently breaks contact and forces long striking exchanges.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev could dominate if he gets takedowns early and holds control; Volkanovski could dominate if he stuffs wrestling and out-lands him cleanly, with a knockdown possible.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the most important edge with his striking volume and footwork, which allow him to score cleanly from the outside while forcing Evloev to shoot from too far out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev's ability to connect successive takedown attempts is the central edge. Defending his first entry may still leave Volkanovski dealing with prolonged clinches and further attempts.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski holds the striking edge in power, accuracy and variety, while Evloev holds the control-wrestling edge; whether takedowns land decides who benefits.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is how much age and accumulated damage have affected Volkanovski's reflexes and scrambling stamina against a younger, physically strong wrestler.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's ability to maintain his movement and explosive escapes through sustained wrestling is the biggest variable.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's age and the wear from past knockout losses against Evloev's unbeaten, durable and relentless approach, plus how judges score control against cleaner striking.

What would change the model's mind?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing signs of physical decline in Volkanovski's speed or takedown defense, or Evloev showing a much more damaging top game over five rounds, would shift the expectation toward Evloev.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Volkanovski can repeatedly escape without sacrificing his striking output would move me toward him. Credible evidence of compromised conditioning for either fighter would also materially change the forecast.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence of a weight-cut problem or injury for either fighter, or Volkanovski visibly beating takedowns early or Evloev winning early grappling exchanges, would shift my view.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The main unknowns are how well Volkanovski's athleticism and durability hold up at this stage of his career, and how Evloev's cardio handles a hard five-round championship pace.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's complete injury status or how well Volkanovski's conditioning will hold up under this particular wrestling workload.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not confirm either fighter's camp condition or health, and how Volkanovski's chin and reflexes hold up at age 38.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski wins the striking behind superior speed, feints, and leg kicks, while Evloev wins the grappling through relentless chain wrestling and heavy top rides.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Volkanovski to lead the striking through sharper distance management and combinations. I expect Evloev to lead the grappling through chained takedowns and persistent positional pressure.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski should win the striking thanks to better accuracy and power; Evloev should win the grappling through persistent chain wrestling and control.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski is better placed late because his championship five-round conditioning and accumulating calf kicks can slow Evloev's wrestling entries as the fight wears on.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evloev has a slight projected advantage late if his wrestling has accumulated fatigue. Volkanovski remains dangerous through his pacing and ability to adjust between rounds.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Slightly Evloev, because of his youth and steady pace, but Volkanovski's experience and conditioning in five-round fights mean it is only a small edge.

Biggest danger for Volkanovski, and for Evloev

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Volkanovski, the biggest danger is getting trapped against the cage in repetitive wrestling cycles that drain the clock without letting him get his striking going. For Evloev, the biggest danger is tiring from stuffed takedowns and being forced to stand at range with a faster, cleaner striker.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski's biggest danger is spending so much energy escaping that his striking output and movement decline. Evloev's biggest danger is failing to establish useful positions while conceding the cleaner, more damaging punches.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Volkanovski: being worn down by cage control and takedowns that sway the judges. Evloev: eating clean counters and power shots when he enters range, which could lead to a knockdown.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Volkanovski by decision, 43% here against 36% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Evloev by decision, 45% here against 38% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Evloev by decision, 38% here against 42% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Volkanovski (55%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Evloev (53%).

  • Claude

    Of 89 analyst picks, 55 back Volkanovski and 34 back Evloev. This model picks Volkanovski (51%).

Which model is most confident on Volkanovski, and which on Evloev?

  • Gemini

    On Volkanovski: Gemini (55%). On Evloev: ChatGPT (53%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Volkanovski by decision: from 35% (ChatGPT) to 43% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    KennyOkoyeMMA (Volkanovski by decision), The MMA Guru (Volkanovski by decision), Bedtime MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Travis Herrick MMA (Volkanovski by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Society (Volkanovski by decision), Good Fights (Volkanovski by decision), Chris Schweppe (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Productions (Volkanovski by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Volkanovski by decision), James Lynch (Volkanovski by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Volkanovski by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Volkanovski by decision), Artem MMA (Volkanovski by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Volkanovski by decision), Fite Feed (Volkanovski by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Volkanovski by decision), James Blissett (Volkanovski by decision), Tom Feely (Volkanovski by decision), Andrew Sumian (Volkanovski by decision), Matthew Petela (Volkanovski by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Volkanovski by decision), Michael Mormile (Volkanovski by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Volkanovski by decision) and Garrett Kerman (Volkanovski by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Volkanovski, most likely by decision.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Brandon K (Evloev by decision), AJ Devito (Evloev by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Evloev by decision), Walk The Line MMA (Evloev by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Evloev by decision), Brian Campbell (Evloev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Evloev by decision), Danny Howard (Evloev by decision), Ethan Diamandas (Evloev by decision), Ian Undery (Evloev by decision), Brandon Wise (Evloev by decision), Lyle Fitzsimmons (Evloev by decision), Kasper MMA (Evloev by decision) and Aniki MMA (Evloev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Evloev, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    Claude, which gave the actual result 3%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

Version not reported · 23 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 6 sportsbooks

50% Alexander Volkanovski
50% Movsar Evloev

Market had it a coin-flip

Volkanovski defeats Evloev · KO/TKO R2

Final pre-fight line · as of 24 Oct 17:29 UTC · 6 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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