UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Round 3 · 5:00
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Aliev started fast and had Dawson in trouble in the first half of the opening round, but the action was paused and Aliev was deducted a point for strikes to the back of the head.
From there Dawson was the more effective fighter, striking well through the rest of the first and leaning on his grappling over the final two rounds. All three judges scored it 29-27.
UFC lists Grant Dawson versus Nurullo Aliev as a lightweight bout on the UFC 333 preliminary card.
Aliev is the opposing lightweight named by UFC for Abu Dhabi.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
The Cage Doctor expects Aliev to struggle to outgrapple Dawson and probably takes Dawson to win. He values Dawson’s grappling and submission game despite criticising his boxing.
* An early probable selection; he also identifies Dawson as a friend of the channel.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 9 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Grant Dawson for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Bedtime MMA explicitly predicts Grant Dawson to beat Nurullo Aliev.
“I think Grant Dawson will beat Nurullo Aliev.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Jimbo Ortega MMA picks Grant Dawson by Decision.
“Grant Dawson by decision,”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
“grant dawson i am confident is going to beat nurulo ali”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Selects Grant Dawson to win.
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Selects Grant Dawson to win.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
JakeGerberMMA picks Grant Dawson by Decision. Calls it a 50-50 fight
“I'm going to go with Grant Dawson by a”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Fite Feed picks Grant Dawson.
“We're going Grant Dawson because Nurullo Aliev”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
DFS By The Numbers picks Grant Dawson by Decision. Ever so slightly lean; host has no strong take and sees a possible split decision.
“But give me Grant Dawson to win this fight, I'll take him to win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Grant Dawson for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Grant Dawson for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
138 MMA picks Grant Dawson, expecting him to outwork and outgrapple Aliev if he avoids an early knockout.
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Next Fight explicitly selects Grant Dawson; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 5 of 8 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (5 hit, 3 miss, across 8 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 8 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Favours Dawson's scrambling and ground damage over Aliev in a close grappler-versus-grappler fight.
“I'll say Grant Dawson wins it via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Combat Edge Model’s frozen UFC 333 forecast favors Grant Dawson (55%) over Nurullo Aliev (45%); the source publishes winner probabilities, not a method or round. Observation snapshot: 2026-10-17 (not asserted as the original publication or lock date); the source labels this forecast version v0.8-2026-10-04.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Fight Genie Claude explicitly selects f_c35d95 for Dawson–Aliev on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
The Oracle selects Grant Dawson with a 53% win probability.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Sub
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Grant Dawson for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Grant Dawson for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Grant Dawson for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Jon Litterine explicitly selects Grant Dawson; no method or round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Selects Grant Dawson to win.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 56.3% (9 hit, 7 miss, across 16 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 16 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Fight Genie GPT explicitly selects f_c35d95 for Dawson–Aliev on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Grant Dawson by decision; no round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Daniel Vreeland explicitly selects Grant Dawson as the best bet in the UFC 333 prelim slate. The source specifies a moneyline pick, with no method or round prediction.
“UFC 333 Prelim Pick: Grant Dawson ML (-123)”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (17 hit, 14 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
VSiN analyst Lou Finocchiaro names Grant Dawson as the UFC 333 best bet and argues Dawson wins the matchup; no finish method is stated.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 54.5% (6 hit, 5 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 11 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 11 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Schweppe explicitly selects Dawson by decision.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
“so yes give me Grant Dawson by a technical 2928 decision that is pretty fun”
Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (15 hit, 14 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Greedo picks Grant Dawson by decision, favoring his scrambling and damage over Aliev’s control.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
“give me Dawson by decision”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (12 hit, 2 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 41 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Don Smoke selects Grant Dawson to win, but leaves the outcome open between a finish and a decision; method and round are not specified.
“give me a Dawson finish of some sort”
Track record: winner called in 12 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 46.2% (12 hit, 14 miss, across 26 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 26 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 44.4% (20 hit, 25 miss, across 45 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (6 hit, 8 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 45 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Josh Schonwald picks Grant Dawson, per the Doc's Sports pick line.
“Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Grant Dawson (-120)”
Track record: winner called in 6 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
Picked: Grant Dawson
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
FIGHT//AI's UFC 333 predictions page lists Grant Dawson over Nurullo Aliev (52% site-displayed confidence); observed 2026-10-17 as the snapshot date, not an asserted original publication or lock date; no method or round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
FightIQ's snapshot explicitly predicts Nurullo Aliev at site-displayed confidence of 51%; tier TOSS-UP.
“We predict Nurullo Aliev — 51% confident”
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Sherdog prelims preview by Tom Feely names Aliev as the pick, by decision.
“The pick is Aliev by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev · KO/TKO
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
MMA Lock of the Night picks Nurullo Aliev by KO/TKO.
“again, give me Nurola Ali by knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
AJ Devito picks Nurullo Aliev.
“Nulu Aliv to go to 13”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Selects Nurullo Aliev to win.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Livid Larry MMA picks Nurullo Aliev by Decision.
“going to go with Alv here. I I don't”
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Selects Nurullo Aliev to win.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.8% (20 hit, 14 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Nurullo Aliev by Decision. low confidence
“So, in this one I have Nurullo Aliev”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Selects Nurullo Aliev to win.
* A slight lean toward Aliev, partly influenced by location; acknowledges Dawson’s submission advantage.
Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
MMA Intel explicitly selects Nurullo Aliev; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Fight Productions selects Nurullo Aliev by decision.
“So, I'm going to take him to win this one by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev · Dec
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
“so I'm picking Alie to win by decision”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
TonyHasDiedMMA selects Nurullo Aliev in the named Dawson matchup. No method or round is specified.
“I'm going to pick Nurullo Aliev”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
Selects Nurullo Aliev to win.
Track record: winner called in 18 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (18 hit, 17 miss, across 35 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 35 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Grant Dawson · Decision
The Lab Analytics' explicit model pick selects Nurullo Aliev (55.4% model probability; LOW confidence, LOW tier). The page publishes no method or round. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 observed page snapshot; no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).
Analyst picks: The Cage Doctor Hit; UFC Predict — Logistic Core Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Miss; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; Tom Feely Miss; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; Michael Chiesa Hit; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Fite Feed Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; UFC Predict — CatBoost Hit; UFC Predict — Main + Market Hit; 138 MMA Hit; Mate Bersenadze Miss; Livid Larry MMA Miss; Next Fight model Hit; HopperMMA Hit; James Blissett Hit; Combat Edge Model Hit; MMA Mathletes Hit; Fight Genie (Claude) Hit; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Hit; Tim Edwards Miss; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Kunath Hit; Artem MMA Hit; Mike Finch Miss; MMA Intel Miss; UFC Predict — Ensemble Hit; UFC Predict — LightGBM Hit; UFC Predict — XGBoost Hit; Jon Litterine Hit; Sean Zerillo Hit; Fight Productions Miss; Fight Genie (GPT) Hit; MMA.SOCIAL Hit; Daniel Vreeland Hit; Kasper MMA Miss; Lou Finocchiaro Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Aniki MMA Hit; Half The Battle Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; Voice of MMA Miss; Steve Garcia Hit; Andy Lang Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Walk The Line MMA Miss; mmadbm Hit; DON SMOKE MMA Hit; Brandon K Hit; The Lab Analytics Miss; Josh Schonwald Hit; FIGHT//AI Hit.
40 of 58 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Dawson · Decision · R3
Closest probability Claude put 57% on Dawson.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Dawson
Most likely: Aliev by decision, about 36 in 100
Win chance: Dawson 53%, Aliev 46%, draw or no contest 1%.
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Dawson
Most likely: Aliev by decision, about 33 in 100
Win chance: Dawson 57%, Aliev 42%, draw or no contest 1%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Dawson
Most likely: Aliev by decision, about 37 in 100
Win chance: Dawson 51%, Aliev 48%, draw or no contest 2%.
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
3 of 3 models pick Dawson.
ChatGPT
Dawson: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Aliev: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Dawson: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Aliev: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Dawson: 51% (about 51 in 100 fights). Aliev: 48%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Aliev by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).
Claude
Aliev by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
Gemini
Aliev by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Aliev by decision (36%); 2. Dawson by decision (35%); 3. Dawson by submission (14%)
Claude
1. Aliev by decision (33%); 2. Dawson by decision (28%); 3. Dawson by KO/TKO (15%)
Gemini
1. Aliev by decision (37%); 2. Dawson by decision (32%); 3. Dawson by submission (13%)
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Dawson's 53% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Dawson's 57% win chance.
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Dawson's 51% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 28%. Decision: 71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 30%. Decision: 69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Dawson wins 53%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 14%, decision 35%.
Claude
Dawson wins 57%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 14%, decision 28%.
Gemini
Dawson wins 51%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 13%, decision 32%.
ChatGPT
Aliev wins 46%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 36%.
Claude
Aliev wins 42%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 3%, decision 33%.
Gemini
Aliev wins 48%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 37%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Dawson overall in a close wrestling contest, with Aliev threatening to control rounds and Dawson offering the more dangerous submission opportunities.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, grappling-heavy fight where Dawson's pressure and submission threat are matched by Aliev's strong takedown defense and wrestling, likely heading to a tight decision.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Expect a grueling three-round grappling match where Nurullo Aliev's physical strength and heavy top control narrowly test Grant Dawson's relentless chain wrestling and back-taking threats.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 11%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 14%.
Gemini
If it ends early, rounds 2 and 3 are equally likely (34% of finishes each, 10% overall each).
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 53% (from 53%), Aliev 46% (from 46%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Expect repeated takedown attempts and increasingly consequential scrambles. Dawson's submission opportunities could improve as fatigue makes defensive transitions less tidy.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 54% (from 57%), Aliev 45% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, Dawson's early scrambles fade in importance and the fight turns on control time and cardio, with Aliev's wrestling grinding and decision scoring becoming the main factor.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 50% (from 51%), Aliev 48% (from 48%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening frame, Aliev's early explosive power fades slightly while Dawson's relentless chain-wrestling pace and submission hunting in scrambles become increasingly dangerous.
ChatGPT
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (36%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev can deny Dawson's initial entries, reverse the clinch and land short strikes from top position. Keeping Dawson underneath him would limit the submission threat and help secure rounds.
Claude
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (33%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev stuffs most takedowns, wins top control in scrambles, and banks rounds with wrestling and clinch control to take a decision.
Gemini
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (37%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is most likely to win by turning failed takedowns into extended scrambles where he can take Aliev's back to ride out rounds or secure a rear-naked choke.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson should chain takedowns into back control, using strikes to open a choke or bank rounds. Aliev should win the clinch position, force Dawson underneath him and prioritize damage over risky submission attempts.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson: hunt takedowns and back takes early, forcing scrambles to find submissions. Aliev: stay unbeaten by defending takedowns, winning the clinch and controlling top position for rounds.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's best path is stuffing Dawson's initial shots and using his physical strength to pin Dawson against the cage and mat for a decision. Dawson's best path is relentless chain wrestling to force scrambles, take the back, and either rack up control time or sink in a rear-naked choke.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who wins the second wrestling exchange after the first shot is defended, and whether Dawson can turn a scramble into back control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Dawson's first takedown attempts land or get stuffed, and who controls the clinch and cage position.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who wins the first clinch battle along the fence and whether Aliev can cleanly sprawl on Dawson's initial takedown attempts without getting dragged into a prolonged scramble.
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Dawson.
ChatGPT
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (36%).
Claude
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (33%).
Gemini
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (37%).
ChatGPT
35% (about 35 in 100).
Claude
28% (about 28 in 100).
Gemini
32% (about 32 in 100).
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 12%, submission 16%, decision 71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 21%, submission 17%, decision 61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 14%, submission 16%, decision 69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Claude
1%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
Dawson: 18%, against 10% for Aliev.
Claude
Dawson: 29%, against 9% for Aliev.
Gemini
Dawson: 19%, against 11% for Aliev.
ChatGPT
Dawson: 18% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 14%). Aliev: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).
Claude
Dawson: 29% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 14%). Aliev: 9% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 3%).
Gemini
Dawson: 19% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 13%). Aliev: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%).
ChatGPT
Dawson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Aliev is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 14%.
Claude
Dawson is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 3%. Aliev is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 14%.
Gemini
Dawson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%. Aliev is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 13%.
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 51% vs 48%.
ChatGPT
Dawson by decision: 35%. Aliev by decision: 36%.
Claude
Dawson by decision: 28%. Aliev by decision: 33%.
Gemini
Dawson by decision: 32%. Aliev by decision: 37%.
ChatGPT
Aliev wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Claude
Aliev wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Aliev wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 10th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 6th closest, and the 11th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 11th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, especially if you enjoy grappling: the fight should hinge on small positional battles and whether either man can turn a scramble into sustained control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Moderately; it is a clash of an unbeaten wrestler and a veteran grappler, with some finish chance but a real risk of long clinch exchanges.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for fans of technical MMA grappling, as two relentless wrestlers will test who has the superior positional control and scramble instincts.
ChatGPT
8%.
Claude
14%.
Gemini
10%.
ChatGPT
17%.
Claude
27%.
Gemini
20%.
ChatGPT
71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 11%.
Claude
Round 3: 11%.
Gemini
Round 3: 10%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 47%, submission 53%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 49%, submission 51%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 59%. If it goes longer: Dawson 52%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 10%, Aliev 7%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 78%. If it goes longer: even. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 21%, Aliev 6%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 62%. If it goes longer: Aliev 51%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 12%, Aliev 8%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Dawson 49%, Aliev 51%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Dawson 46%, Aliev 54%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Dawson 46%, Aliev 54%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev could run away with the rounds if Dawson cannot reverse or escape his top control. Dawson could dominate if Aliev repeatedly exposes his back while trying to stand.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Dawson gets Aliev down early and takes the back, a submission is possible; if Aliev's wrestling dominates and neutralizes Dawson, he could control all three rounds.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Aliev effortlessly stuffs Dawson's entries and keeps him flattened out on the mat, or if Dawson wins the first scramble and rides Aliev's back for entire rounds, the fight could quickly become a lopsided grinding clinic.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson holds the clearest edge in submission danger. I expect his ability to threaten the back to make otherwise even grappling exchanges more consequential.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson holds the edge in submission threat and scrambling experience, while Aliev's takedown defense is the key counter.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The most important edge is Dawson's opportunistic back-taking and submission skill in scrambles, which gives him the only reliable finishing threat in a closely matched grappling battle.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest uncertainty is whether Aliev can impose his wrestling against an opponent who can punish his transitions with back takes.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's undefeated record against less proven opposition, and how he handles Dawson's pace and experience.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson's chin and composure under fire when forced to strike on the feet if his initial takedown attempts are stuffed by Aliev.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I would move toward Aliev if he repeatedly stuffed Dawson's chained entries and held him down without conceding dangerous scrambles.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Late news of a weight-cut issue or injury for either fighter, or early evidence Aliev is easily taken down, would shift the forecast.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a rough weight cut or lingering injury for Aliev would shift the outlook heavily toward Dawson, as Aliev relies on peak physical strength to deny takedowns and hold top position.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's full injury status or how effectively Aliev can escape sustained back control against a grappler of Dawson's level.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's level against top-tier grapplers, and Dawson's condition and durability after past knockout losses.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how well Aliev's cardio holds up when forced to defend non-stop chain wrestling from a proven veteran, and whether either fighter has developed a sharper striking game to bypass the wrestling stalemate.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean slightly toward Aliev in open-space striking, where Dawson's entries may expose him. Dawson gets a narrow overall grappling edge through submission threats, though Aliev may win the wrestling.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is slightly ahead in striking volume and has the edge in submissions; wrestling control is likely close, with Aliev's takedown defense a strength.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev holds a slight edge on the feet due to his compact power and pressure, while the grappling is a near-even clash between Aliev's suffocating top control and Dawson's superior back-taking scrambles.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson gets a slight late edge because I expect his back-taking opportunities to grow as transitions slow. That advantage disappears if Aliev consistently makes him work from underneath.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Roughly even, with a slight lean to Aliev's wrestling if Dawson's early offense is stifled.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is slightly better placed late because his high-volume chain wrestling and back-taking threats become more dangerous as Aliev's explosive sprawl slows down.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson's biggest danger is having his entries denied and being forced into exposed striking exchanges or prolonged bottom position. Aliev's biggest danger is surrendering his back during a scramble and failing to clear Dawson's hooks.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson: getting stuffed repeatedly and losing rounds to control while risking counters. Aliev: being taken down and submitted or having his back taken by a veteran grappler.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Dawson, the biggest danger is getting outmuscled on the entries and spending three rounds pinned beneath Aliev's heavy top pressure. For Aliev, the biggest danger is giving up his back during a transitional scramble and getting caught in one of Dawson's signature chokes.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Dawson by decision, 35% here against 30% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Dawson by decision, 28% here against 34% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Aliev by decision, 37% here against 35% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (53%).
Claude
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (57%).
Gemini
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (51%).
All models
On Dawson: Claude (57%). On Aliev: Gemini (48%).
All models
Dawson by decision: from 28% (Claude) to 35% (ChatGPT).
All models
Chris Schweppe (Dawson by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Dawson by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Dawson by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Dawson by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Dawson by decision), Artem MMA (Dawson by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Dawson by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Dawson by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Dawson by decision), Brandon K (Dawson by decision), James Blissett (Dawson by decision), The MMA Guru (Dawson by decision), Aniki MMA (Dawson by decision) and mmadbm (Dawson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Dawson, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
All models
ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 35%.
All models
Yes.
Pick
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Aliev by decision, about 36 in 100
Win chance: Dawson 53%, Aliev 46%, draw or no contest 1%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Aliev's strongest route to be winning the clinch and maintaining top position while avoiding risky transitions. That could let him accumulate enough effective offense to take close rounds.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson can win by chaining entries into sustained control and making Aliev defend back takes. I expect his submission threats to create opportunities for scoring offense even without a finish.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson's clearest finishing route is taking the back during a scramble. I expect that opening to become more available if repeated wrestling exchanges tire Aliev.
Draw or no contest: 1%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson KO/TKO | 1% | 1% | 2% | — |
| Dawson Submission | 3% | 5% | 6% | — |
| Dawson Decision | — | — | — | 35% |
| Aliev KO/TKO | 4% | 3% | 2% | — |
| Aliev Submission | <1% | 1% | 1% | — |
| Aliev Decision | — | — | — | 36% |
| Draw or no contest | 1% | |||
ChatGPT
Dawson: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Aliev: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Dawson: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Aliev: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Dawson: 51% (about 51 in 100 fights). Aliev: 48%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Aliev by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).
Claude
Aliev by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
Gemini
Aliev by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Aliev by decision (36%); 2. Dawson by decision (35%); 3. Dawson by submission (14%)
Claude
1. Aliev by decision (33%); 2. Dawson by decision (28%); 3. Dawson by KO/TKO (15%)
Gemini
1. Aliev by decision (37%); 2. Dawson by decision (32%); 3. Dawson by submission (13%)
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Dawson's 53% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Dawson's 57% win chance.
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Dawson's 51% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 28%. Decision: 71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 30%. Decision: 69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Dawson wins 53%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 14%, decision 35%.
Claude
Dawson wins 57%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 14%, decision 28%.
Gemini
Dawson wins 51%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 13%, decision 32%.
ChatGPT
Aliev wins 46%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 36%.
Claude
Aliev wins 42%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 3%, decision 33%.
Gemini
Aliev wins 48%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 37%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Dawson overall in a close wrestling contest, with Aliev threatening to control rounds and Dawson offering the more dangerous submission opportunities.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, grappling-heavy fight where Dawson's pressure and submission threat are matched by Aliev's strong takedown defense and wrestling, likely heading to a tight decision.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Expect a grueling three-round grappling match where Nurullo Aliev's physical strength and heavy top control narrowly test Grant Dawson's relentless chain wrestling and back-taking threats.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 11%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 14%.
Gemini
If it ends early, rounds 2 and 3 are equally likely (34% of finishes each, 10% overall each).
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 53% (from 53%), Aliev 46% (from 46%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Expect repeated takedown attempts and increasingly consequential scrambles. Dawson's submission opportunities could improve as fatigue makes defensive transitions less tidy.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 54% (from 57%), Aliev 45% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, Dawson's early scrambles fade in importance and the fight turns on control time and cardio, with Aliev's wrestling grinding and decision scoring becoming the main factor.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 50% (from 51%), Aliev 48% (from 48%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening frame, Aliev's early explosive power fades slightly while Dawson's relentless chain-wrestling pace and submission hunting in scrambles become increasingly dangerous.
ChatGPT
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (36%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev can deny Dawson's initial entries, reverse the clinch and land short strikes from top position. Keeping Dawson underneath him would limit the submission threat and help secure rounds.
Claude
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (33%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev stuffs most takedowns, wins top control in scrambles, and banks rounds with wrestling and clinch control to take a decision.
Gemini
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (37%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is most likely to win by turning failed takedowns into extended scrambles where he can take Aliev's back to ride out rounds or secure a rear-naked choke.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson should chain takedowns into back control, using strikes to open a choke or bank rounds. Aliev should win the clinch position, force Dawson underneath him and prioritize damage over risky submission attempts.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson: hunt takedowns and back takes early, forcing scrambles to find submissions. Aliev: stay unbeaten by defending takedowns, winning the clinch and controlling top position for rounds.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's best path is stuffing Dawson's initial shots and using his physical strength to pin Dawson against the cage and mat for a decision. Dawson's best path is relentless chain wrestling to force scrambles, take the back, and either rack up control time or sink in a rear-naked choke.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who wins the second wrestling exchange after the first shot is defended, and whether Dawson can turn a scramble into back control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Dawson's first takedown attempts land or get stuffed, and who controls the clinch and cage position.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who wins the first clinch battle along the fence and whether Aliev can cleanly sprawl on Dawson's initial takedown attempts without getting dragged into a prolonged scramble.
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Dawson.
ChatGPT
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (36%).
Claude
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (33%).
Gemini
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (37%).
ChatGPT
35% (about 35 in 100).
Claude
28% (about 28 in 100).
Gemini
32% (about 32 in 100).
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 12%, submission 16%, decision 71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 21%, submission 17%, decision 61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 14%, submission 16%, decision 69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
Dawson: 18%, against 10% for Aliev.
Claude
Dawson: 29%, against 9% for Aliev.
Gemini
Dawson: 19%, against 11% for Aliev.
ChatGPT
Dawson: 18% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 14%). Aliev: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).
Claude
Dawson: 29% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 14%). Aliev: 9% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 3%).
Gemini
Dawson: 19% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 13%). Aliev: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%).
ChatGPT
Dawson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Aliev is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 14%.
Claude
Dawson is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 3%. Aliev is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 14%.
Gemini
Dawson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%. Aliev is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 13%.
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 51% vs 48%.
ChatGPT
Dawson by decision: 35%. Aliev by decision: 36%.
Claude
Dawson by decision: 28%. Aliev by decision: 33%.
Gemini
Dawson by decision: 32%. Aliev by decision: 37%.
ChatGPT
Aliev wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Claude
Aliev wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Aliev wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 10th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 6th closest, and the 11th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 11th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, especially if you enjoy grappling: the fight should hinge on small positional battles and whether either man can turn a scramble into sustained control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Moderately; it is a clash of an unbeaten wrestler and a veteran grappler, with some finish chance but a real risk of long clinch exchanges.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for fans of technical MMA grappling, as two relentless wrestlers will test who has the superior positional control and scramble instincts.
ChatGPT
8%.
Claude
14%.
Gemini
10%.
ChatGPT
17%.
Claude
27%.
Gemini
20%.
ChatGPT
71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 11%.
Gemini
Round 3: 10%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 47%, submission 53%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 49%, submission 51%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 59%. If it goes longer: Dawson 52%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 10%, Aliev 7%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 78%. If it goes longer: even. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 21%, Aliev 6%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 62%. If it goes longer: Aliev 51%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 12%, Aliev 8%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Dawson 49%, Aliev 51%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Dawson 46%, Aliev 54%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Dawson 46%, Aliev 54%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev could run away with the rounds if Dawson cannot reverse or escape his top control. Dawson could dominate if Aliev repeatedly exposes his back while trying to stand.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Dawson gets Aliev down early and takes the back, a submission is possible; if Aliev's wrestling dominates and neutralizes Dawson, he could control all three rounds.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Aliev effortlessly stuffs Dawson's entries and keeps him flattened out on the mat, or if Dawson wins the first scramble and rides Aliev's back for entire rounds, the fight could quickly become a lopsided grinding clinic.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson holds the clearest edge in submission danger. I expect his ability to threaten the back to make otherwise even grappling exchanges more consequential.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson holds the edge in submission threat and scrambling experience, while Aliev's takedown defense is the key counter.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The most important edge is Dawson's opportunistic back-taking and submission skill in scrambles, which gives him the only reliable finishing threat in a closely matched grappling battle.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest uncertainty is whether Aliev can impose his wrestling against an opponent who can punish his transitions with back takes.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's undefeated record against less proven opposition, and how he handles Dawson's pace and experience.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson's chin and composure under fire when forced to strike on the feet if his initial takedown attempts are stuffed by Aliev.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I would move toward Aliev if he repeatedly stuffed Dawson's chained entries and held him down without conceding dangerous scrambles.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Late news of a weight-cut issue or injury for either fighter, or early evidence Aliev is easily taken down, would shift the forecast.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a rough weight cut or lingering injury for Aliev would shift the outlook heavily toward Dawson, as Aliev relies on peak physical strength to deny takedowns and hold top position.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's full injury status or how effectively Aliev can escape sustained back control against a grappler of Dawson's level.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's level against top-tier grapplers, and Dawson's condition and durability after past knockout losses.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how well Aliev's cardio holds up when forced to defend non-stop chain wrestling from a proven veteran, and whether either fighter has developed a sharper striking game to bypass the wrestling stalemate.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean slightly toward Aliev in open-space striking, where Dawson's entries may expose him. Dawson gets a narrow overall grappling edge through submission threats, though Aliev may win the wrestling.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is slightly ahead in striking volume and has the edge in submissions; wrestling control is likely close, with Aliev's takedown defense a strength.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev holds a slight edge on the feet due to his compact power and pressure, while the grappling is a near-even clash between Aliev's suffocating top control and Dawson's superior back-taking scrambles.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson gets a slight late edge because I expect his back-taking opportunities to grow as transitions slow. That advantage disappears if Aliev consistently makes him work from underneath.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Roughly even, with a slight lean to Aliev's wrestling if Dawson's early offense is stifled.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is slightly better placed late because his high-volume chain wrestling and back-taking threats become more dangerous as Aliev's explosive sprawl slows down.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson's biggest danger is having his entries denied and being forced into exposed striking exchanges or prolonged bottom position. Aliev's biggest danger is surrendering his back during a scramble and failing to clear Dawson's hooks.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson: getting stuffed repeatedly and losing rounds to control while risking counters. Aliev: being taken down and submitted or having his back taken by a veteran grappler.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Dawson, the biggest danger is getting outmuscled on the entries and spending three rounds pinned beneath Aliev's heavy top pressure. For Aliev, the biggest danger is giving up his back during a transitional scramble and getting caught in one of Dawson's signature chokes.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Dawson by decision, 35% here against 30% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Dawson by decision, 28% here against 34% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Aliev by decision, 37% here against 35% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (53%).
Claude
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (57%).
Gemini
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (51%).
ChatGPT
On Dawson: Claude (57%). On Aliev: Gemini (48%).
ChatGPT
Dawson by decision: from 28% (Claude) to 35% (ChatGPT).
ChatGPT
Chris Schweppe (Dawson by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Dawson by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Dawson by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Dawson by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Dawson by decision), Artem MMA (Dawson by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Dawson by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Dawson by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Dawson by decision), Brandon K (Dawson by decision), James Blissett (Dawson by decision), The MMA Guru (Dawson by decision), Aniki MMA (Dawson by decision) and mmadbm (Dawson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Dawson, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
ChatGPT
ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 35%.
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Aliev by decision, about 33 in 100
Win chance: Dawson 57%, Aliev 42%, draw or no contest 1%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's strong takedown defense and wrestling could grind out rounds in a tight, grappling-heavy decision.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson's higher volume and takedown pressure can win rounds on the scorecards.
No reason given
Draw or no contest: 1%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson KO/TKO | 6% | 5% | 4% | — |
| Dawson Submission | 5% | 5% | 4% | — |
| Dawson Decision | — | — | — | 28% |
| Aliev KO/TKO | 2% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Aliev Submission | 1% | 1% | 1% | — |
| Aliev Decision | — | — | — | 33% |
| Draw or no contest | 1% | |||
Claude
Dawson: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Aliev: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
Dawson: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Aliev: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Dawson: 51% (about 51 in 100 fights). Aliev: 48%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Aliev by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
ChatGPT
Aliev by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).
Gemini
Aliev by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Claude
1. Aliev by decision (33%); 2. Dawson by decision (28%); 3. Dawson by KO/TKO (15%)
ChatGPT
1. Aliev by decision (36%); 2. Dawson by decision (35%); 3. Dawson by submission (14%)
Gemini
1. Aliev by decision (37%); 2. Dawson by decision (32%); 3. Dawson by submission (13%)
Claude
6 of 10, based on Dawson's 57% win chance.
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Dawson's 53% win chance.
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Dawson's 51% win chance.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 28%. Decision: 71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 30%. Decision: 69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Dawson wins 57%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 14%, decision 28%.
ChatGPT
Dawson wins 53%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 14%, decision 35%.
Gemini
Dawson wins 51%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 13%, decision 32%.
Claude
Aliev wins 42%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 3%, decision 33%.
ChatGPT
Aliev wins 46%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 36%.
Gemini
Aliev wins 48%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 37%.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, grappling-heavy fight where Dawson's pressure and submission threat are matched by Aliev's strong takedown defense and wrestling, likely heading to a tight decision.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Dawson overall in a close wrestling contest, with Aliev threatening to control rounds and Dawson offering the more dangerous submission opportunities.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Expect a grueling three-round grappling match where Nurullo Aliev's physical strength and heavy top control narrowly test Grant Dawson's relentless chain wrestling and back-taking threats.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 14%.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 11%.
Gemini
If it ends early, rounds 2 and 3 are equally likely (34% of finishes each, 10% overall each).
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 54% (from 57%), Aliev 45% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, Dawson's early scrambles fade in importance and the fight turns on control time and cardio, with Aliev's wrestling grinding and decision scoring becoming the main factor.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 53% (from 53%), Aliev 46% (from 46%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Expect repeated takedown attempts and increasingly consequential scrambles. Dawson's submission opportunities could improve as fatigue makes defensive transitions less tidy.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 50% (from 51%), Aliev 48% (from 48%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening frame, Aliev's early explosive power fades slightly while Dawson's relentless chain-wrestling pace and submission hunting in scrambles become increasingly dangerous.
Claude
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (33%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev stuffs most takedowns, wins top control in scrambles, and banks rounds with wrestling and clinch control to take a decision.
ChatGPT
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (36%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev can deny Dawson's initial entries, reverse the clinch and land short strikes from top position. Keeping Dawson underneath him would limit the submission threat and help secure rounds.
Gemini
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (37%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is most likely to win by turning failed takedowns into extended scrambles where he can take Aliev's back to ride out rounds or secure a rear-naked choke.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson: hunt takedowns and back takes early, forcing scrambles to find submissions. Aliev: stay unbeaten by defending takedowns, winning the clinch and controlling top position for rounds.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson should chain takedowns into back control, using strikes to open a choke or bank rounds. Aliev should win the clinch position, force Dawson underneath him and prioritize damage over risky submission attempts.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's best path is stuffing Dawson's initial shots and using his physical strength to pin Dawson against the cage and mat for a decision. Dawson's best path is relentless chain wrestling to force scrambles, take the back, and either rack up control time or sink in a rear-naked choke.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Dawson's first takedown attempts land or get stuffed, and who controls the clinch and cage position.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who wins the second wrestling exchange after the first shot is defended, and whether Dawson can turn a scramble into back control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who wins the first clinch battle along the fence and whether Aliev can cleanly sprawl on Dawson's initial takedown attempts without getting dragged into a prolonged scramble.
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Dawson.
Claude
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (33%).
ChatGPT
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (36%).
Gemini
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (37%).
Claude
28% (about 28 in 100).
ChatGPT
35% (about 35 in 100).
Gemini
32% (about 32 in 100).
Claude
KO/TKO 21%, submission 17%, decision 61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 12%, submission 16%, decision 71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 14%, submission 16%, decision 69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
1%.
Gemini
2%.
Claude
Dawson: 29%, against 9% for Aliev.
ChatGPT
Dawson: 18%, against 10% for Aliev.
Gemini
Dawson: 19%, against 11% for Aliev.
Claude
Dawson: 29% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 14%). Aliev: 9% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 3%).
ChatGPT
Dawson: 18% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 14%). Aliev: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).
Gemini
Dawson: 19% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 13%). Aliev: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%).
Claude
Dawson is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 3%. Aliev is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 14%.
ChatGPT
Dawson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Aliev is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 14%.
Gemini
Dawson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%. Aliev is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 13%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 51% vs 48%.
Claude
Dawson by decision: 28%. Aliev by decision: 33%.
ChatGPT
Dawson by decision: 35%. Aliev by decision: 36%.
Gemini
Dawson by decision: 32%. Aliev by decision: 37%.
Claude
Aliev wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Aliev wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Gemini
Aliev wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 6th closest, and the 11th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 10th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 11th most likely to end early.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Moderately; it is a clash of an unbeaten wrestler and a veteran grappler, with some finish chance but a real risk of long clinch exchanges.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, especially if you enjoy grappling: the fight should hinge on small positional battles and whether either man can turn a scramble into sustained control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for fans of technical MMA grappling, as two relentless wrestlers will test who has the superior positional control and scramble instincts.
Claude
14%.
ChatGPT
8%.
Gemini
10%.
Claude
27%.
ChatGPT
17%.
Gemini
20%.
Claude
61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Round 3: 11%.
Gemini
Round 3: 10%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 47%, submission 53%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 49%, submission 51%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 78%. If it goes longer: even. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 21%, Aliev 6%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 59%. If it goes longer: Dawson 52%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 10%, Aliev 7%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 62%. If it goes longer: Aliev 51%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 12%, Aliev 8%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Dawson 46%, Aliev 54%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Dawson 49%, Aliev 51%.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Dawson gets Aliev down early and takes the back, a submission is possible; if Aliev's wrestling dominates and neutralizes Dawson, he could control all three rounds.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev could run away with the rounds if Dawson cannot reverse or escape his top control. Dawson could dominate if Aliev repeatedly exposes his back while trying to stand.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Aliev effortlessly stuffs Dawson's entries and keeps him flattened out on the mat, or if Dawson wins the first scramble and rides Aliev's back for entire rounds, the fight could quickly become a lopsided grinding clinic.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson holds the edge in submission threat and scrambling experience, while Aliev's takedown defense is the key counter.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson holds the clearest edge in submission danger. I expect his ability to threaten the back to make otherwise even grappling exchanges more consequential.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The most important edge is Dawson's opportunistic back-taking and submission skill in scrambles, which gives him the only reliable finishing threat in a closely matched grappling battle.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's undefeated record against less proven opposition, and how he handles Dawson's pace and experience.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest uncertainty is whether Aliev can impose his wrestling against an opponent who can punish his transitions with back takes.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson's chin and composure under fire when forced to strike on the feet if his initial takedown attempts are stuffed by Aliev.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Late news of a weight-cut issue or injury for either fighter, or early evidence Aliev is easily taken down, would shift the forecast.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I would move toward Aliev if he repeatedly stuffed Dawson's chained entries and held him down without conceding dangerous scrambles.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a rough weight cut or lingering injury for Aliev would shift the outlook heavily toward Dawson, as Aliev relies on peak physical strength to deny takedowns and hold top position.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's level against top-tier grapplers, and Dawson's condition and durability after past knockout losses.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's full injury status or how effectively Aliev can escape sustained back control against a grappler of Dawson's level.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how well Aliev's cardio holds up when forced to defend non-stop chain wrestling from a proven veteran, and whether either fighter has developed a sharper striking game to bypass the wrestling stalemate.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is slightly ahead in striking volume and has the edge in submissions; wrestling control is likely close, with Aliev's takedown defense a strength.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean slightly toward Aliev in open-space striking, where Dawson's entries may expose him. Dawson gets a narrow overall grappling edge through submission threats, though Aliev may win the wrestling.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev holds a slight edge on the feet due to his compact power and pressure, while the grappling is a near-even clash between Aliev's suffocating top control and Dawson's superior back-taking scrambles.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Roughly even, with a slight lean to Aliev's wrestling if Dawson's early offense is stifled.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson gets a slight late edge because I expect his back-taking opportunities to grow as transitions slow. That advantage disappears if Aliev consistently makes him work from underneath.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is slightly better placed late because his high-volume chain wrestling and back-taking threats become more dangerous as Aliev's explosive sprawl slows down.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson: getting stuffed repeatedly and losing rounds to control while risking counters. Aliev: being taken down and submitted or having his back taken by a veteran grappler.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson's biggest danger is having his entries denied and being forced into exposed striking exchanges or prolonged bottom position. Aliev's biggest danger is surrendering his back during a scramble and failing to clear Dawson's hooks.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Dawson, the biggest danger is getting outmuscled on the entries and spending three rounds pinned beneath Aliev's heavy top pressure. For Aliev, the biggest danger is giving up his back during a transitional scramble and getting caught in one of Dawson's signature chokes.
Claude
Biggest difference: Dawson by decision, 28% here against 34% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Dawson by decision, 35% here against 30% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Aliev by decision, 37% here against 35% on average for the others.
Claude
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (57%).
ChatGPT
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (53%).
Gemini
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (51%).
Claude
On Dawson: Claude (57%). On Aliev: Gemini (48%).
Claude
Dawson by decision: from 28% (Claude) to 35% (ChatGPT).
Claude
Chris Schweppe (Dawson by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Dawson by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Dawson by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Dawson by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Dawson by decision), Artem MMA (Dawson by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Dawson by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Dawson by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Dawson by decision), Brandon K (Dawson by decision), James Blissett (Dawson by decision), The MMA Guru (Dawson by decision), Aniki MMA (Dawson by decision) and mmadbm (Dawson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Dawson, most likely by decision.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Claude
ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 35%.
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Aliev by decision, about 37 in 100
Win chance: Dawson 51%, Aliev 48%, draw or no contest 2%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev relies on stout takedown defense, physical strength, and suffocating top control to grind out three-round scorecards while avoiding risky exchanges.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson brings proven experience against ranked lightweights and high-volume chain wrestling that can win scrambles and accumulate control time across three rounds.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is an opportunistic back-taker with dangerous choke threats in transitional scrambles, giving him the clearest finishing path if extended grappling exchanges open up.
Draw or no contest: 2%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson KO/TKO | 2% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Dawson Submission | 4% | 5% | 5% | — |
| Dawson Decision | — | — | — | 32% |
| Aliev KO/TKO | 3% | 3% | 2% | — |
| Aliev Submission | 1% | 1% | 1% | — |
| Aliev Decision | — | — | — | 37% |
| Draw or no contest | 2% | |||
Gemini
Dawson: 51% (about 51 in 100 fights). Aliev: 48%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Dawson: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Aliev: 46%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Dawson: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Aliev: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Aliev by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
ChatGPT
Aliev by decision: 36% (about 36 in 100).
Claude
Aliev by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
Gemini
1. Aliev by decision (37%); 2. Dawson by decision (32%); 3. Dawson by submission (13%)
ChatGPT
1. Aliev by decision (36%); 2. Dawson by decision (35%); 3. Dawson by submission (14%)
Claude
1. Aliev by decision (33%); 2. Dawson by decision (28%); 3. Dawson by KO/TKO (15%)
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Dawson's 51% win chance.
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Dawson's 53% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Dawson's 57% win chance.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 30%. Decision: 69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 28%. Decision: 71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Dawson wins 51%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 13%, decision 32%.
ChatGPT
Dawson wins 53%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 14%, decision 35%.
Claude
Dawson wins 57%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 14%, decision 28%.
Gemini
Aliev wins 48%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%, decision 37%.
ChatGPT
Aliev wins 46%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%, decision 36%.
Claude
Aliev wins 42%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 3%, decision 33%.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Expect a grueling three-round grappling match where Nurullo Aliev's physical strength and heavy top control narrowly test Grant Dawson's relentless chain wrestling and back-taking threats.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Dawson overall in a close wrestling contest, with Aliev threatening to control rounds and Dawson offering the more dangerous submission opportunities.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, grappling-heavy fight where Dawson's pressure and submission threat are matched by Aliev's strong takedown defense and wrestling, likely heading to a tight decision.
Gemini
If it ends early, rounds 2 and 3 are equally likely (34% of finishes each, 10% overall each).
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 11%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 14%.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 50% (from 51%), Aliev 48% (from 48%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening frame, Aliev's early explosive power fades slightly while Dawson's relentless chain-wrestling pace and submission hunting in scrambles become increasingly dangerous.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 53% (from 53%), Aliev 46% (from 46%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Expect repeated takedown attempts and increasingly consequential scrambles. Dawson's submission opportunities could improve as fatigue makes defensive transitions less tidy.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Dawson 54% (from 57%), Aliev 45% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, Dawson's early scrambles fade in importance and the fight turns on control time and cardio, with Aliev's wrestling grinding and decision scoring becoming the main factor.
Gemini
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (37%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is most likely to win by turning failed takedowns into extended scrambles where he can take Aliev's back to ride out rounds or secure a rear-naked choke.
ChatGPT
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (36%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev can deny Dawson's initial entries, reverse the clinch and land short strikes from top position. Keeping Dawson underneath him would limit the submission threat and help secure rounds.
Claude
Aliev's most likely upset: Aliev by decision (33%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev stuffs most takedowns, wins top control in scrambles, and banks rounds with wrestling and clinch control to take a decision.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's best path is stuffing Dawson's initial shots and using his physical strength to pin Dawson against the cage and mat for a decision. Dawson's best path is relentless chain wrestling to force scrambles, take the back, and either rack up control time or sink in a rear-naked choke.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson should chain takedowns into back control, using strikes to open a choke or bank rounds. Aliev should win the clinch position, force Dawson underneath him and prioritize damage over risky submission attempts.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson: hunt takedowns and back takes early, forcing scrambles to find submissions. Aliev: stay unbeaten by defending takedowns, winning the clinch and controlling top position for rounds.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who wins the first clinch battle along the fence and whether Aliev can cleanly sprawl on Dawson's initial takedown attempts without getting dragged into a prolonged scramble.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who wins the second wrestling exchange after the first shot is defended, and whether Dawson can turn a scramble into back control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Dawson's first takedown attempts land or get stuffed, and who controls the clinch and cage position.
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Dawson.
Gemini
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (37%).
ChatGPT
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (36%).
Claude
Result: Dawson by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Aliev by decision (33%).
Gemini
32% (about 32 in 100).
ChatGPT
35% (about 35 in 100).
Claude
28% (about 28 in 100).
Gemini
KO/TKO 14%, submission 16%, decision 69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 12%, submission 16%, decision 71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 21%, submission 17%, decision 61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Claude
1%.
Gemini
Dawson: 19%, against 11% for Aliev.
ChatGPT
Dawson: 18%, against 10% for Aliev.
Claude
Dawson: 29%, against 9% for Aliev.
Gemini
Dawson: 19% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 13%). Aliev: 11% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%).
ChatGPT
Dawson: 18% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 14%). Aliev: 10% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 2%).
Claude
Dawson: 29% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 14%). Aliev: 9% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 3%).
Gemini
Dawson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 3%. Aliev is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 13%.
ChatGPT
Dawson is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 2%. Aliev is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 14%.
Claude
Dawson is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 3%. Aliev is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 14%.
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 51% vs 48%.
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 46%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.
Gemini
Dawson by decision: 32%. Aliev by decision: 37%.
ChatGPT
Dawson by decision: 35%. Aliev by decision: 36%.
Claude
Dawson by decision: 28%. Aliev by decision: 33%.
Gemini
Aliev wins 48% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
ChatGPT
Aliev wins 46% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Claude
Aliev wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 11th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 2nd closest, and the 10th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 6th closest, and the 11th most likely to end early.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for fans of technical MMA grappling, as two relentless wrestlers will test who has the superior positional control and scramble instincts.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, especially if you enjoy grappling: the fight should hinge on small positional battles and whether either man can turn a scramble into sustained control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Moderately; it is a clash of an unbeaten wrestler and a veteran grappler, with some finish chance but a real risk of long clinch exchanges.
Gemini
10%.
ChatGPT
8%.
Claude
14%.
Gemini
20%.
ChatGPT
17%.
Claude
27%.
Gemini
69%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
71%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
61%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Round 3: 10%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 11%.
Claude
Round 3: 11%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 49%, submission 51%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 47%, submission 53%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 62%. If it goes longer: Aliev 51%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 12%, Aliev 8%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 59%. If it goes longer: Dawson 52%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 10%, Aliev 7%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Dawson 78%. If it goes longer: even. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Dawson 21%, Aliev 6%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Dawson 46%, Aliev 54%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Dawson 49%, Aliev 51%.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Aliev effortlessly stuffs Dawson's entries and keeps him flattened out on the mat, or if Dawson wins the first scramble and rides Aliev's back for entire rounds, the fight could quickly become a lopsided grinding clinic.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev could run away with the rounds if Dawson cannot reverse or escape his top control. Dawson could dominate if Aliev repeatedly exposes his back while trying to stand.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Dawson gets Aliev down early and takes the back, a submission is possible; if Aliev's wrestling dominates and neutralizes Dawson, he could control all three rounds.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The most important edge is Dawson's opportunistic back-taking and submission skill in scrambles, which gives him the only reliable finishing threat in a closely matched grappling battle.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson holds the clearest edge in submission danger. I expect his ability to threaten the back to make otherwise even grappling exchanges more consequential.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson holds the edge in submission threat and scrambling experience, while Aliev's takedown defense is the key counter.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson's chin and composure under fire when forced to strike on the feet if his initial takedown attempts are stuffed by Aliev.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest uncertainty is whether Aliev can impose his wrestling against an opponent who can punish his transitions with back takes.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's undefeated record against less proven opposition, and how he handles Dawson's pace and experience.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a rough weight cut or lingering injury for Aliev would shift the outlook heavily toward Dawson, as Aliev relies on peak physical strength to deny takedowns and hold top position.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I would move toward Aliev if he repeatedly stuffed Dawson's chained entries and held him down without conceding dangerous scrambles.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Late news of a weight-cut issue or injury for either fighter, or early evidence Aliev is easily taken down, would shift the forecast.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how well Aliev's cardio holds up when forced to defend non-stop chain wrestling from a proven veteran, and whether either fighter has developed a sharper striking game to bypass the wrestling stalemate.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's full injury status or how effectively Aliev can escape sustained back control against a grappler of Dawson's level.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev's level against top-tier grapplers, and Dawson's condition and durability after past knockout losses.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Aliev holds a slight edge on the feet due to his compact power and pressure, while the grappling is a near-even clash between Aliev's suffocating top control and Dawson's superior back-taking scrambles.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean slightly toward Aliev in open-space striking, where Dawson's entries may expose him. Dawson gets a narrow overall grappling edge through submission threats, though Aliev may win the wrestling.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is slightly ahead in striking volume and has the edge in submissions; wrestling control is likely close, with Aliev's takedown defense a strength.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson is slightly better placed late because his high-volume chain wrestling and back-taking threats become more dangerous as Aliev's explosive sprawl slows down.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson gets a slight late edge because I expect his back-taking opportunities to grow as transitions slow. That advantage disappears if Aliev consistently makes him work from underneath.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Roughly even, with a slight lean to Aliev's wrestling if Dawson's early offense is stifled.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Dawson, the biggest danger is getting outmuscled on the entries and spending three rounds pinned beneath Aliev's heavy top pressure. For Aliev, the biggest danger is giving up his back during a transitional scramble and getting caught in one of Dawson's signature chokes.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson's biggest danger is having his entries denied and being forced into exposed striking exchanges or prolonged bottom position. Aliev's biggest danger is surrendering his back during a scramble and failing to clear Dawson's hooks.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dawson: getting stuffed repeatedly and losing rounds to control while risking counters. Aliev: being taken down and submitted or having his back taken by a veteran grappler.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Aliev by decision, 37% here against 35% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Dawson by decision, 35% here against 30% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Dawson by decision, 28% here against 34% on average for the others.
Gemini
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (51%).
ChatGPT
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (53%).
Claude
Of 58 analyst picks, 40 back Dawson and 18 back Aliev. This model picks Dawson (57%).
Gemini
On Dawson: Claude (57%). On Aliev: Gemini (48%).
Gemini
Dawson by decision: from 28% (Claude) to 35% (ChatGPT).
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Dawson by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Dawson by decision), MMA.SOCIAL (Dawson by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Dawson by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Dawson by decision), Artem MMA (Dawson by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Dawson by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Dawson by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Dawson by decision), Brandon K (Dawson by decision), James Blissett (Dawson by decision), The MMA Guru (Dawson by decision), Aniki MMA (Dawson by decision) and mmadbm (Dawson by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Dawson, most likely by decision.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Gemini
ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 35%.
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 23 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Favoured: Dawson (52%) Called it
Dawson defeats Aliev · Dec
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