45%
Oki
54%
Santos
PickSantos · KO/TKO · R2ActualSantos · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Daniel Santos defeats Bolaji Oki by unanimous decision
Unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Oki vs Santos — Featherweight · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(12) 31%
69% (27)
AI Predictions
46%
53%
Market Odds
50%
50%
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Both featherweights landed solid shots in every round, with Santos throwing more volume and Oki holding a slight power edge. Neither man took clear control at any point.
Santos's activity proved the difference, and all three judges scored it 29-28 in his favour.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Oki
Oki brings a 10-4 record and lands 6.42 significant strikes per minute on his UFC profile. If he keeps the bout at his preferred striking range, his higher recorded output gives him a route to build rounds.
Case for Santos
Santos enters at 14-3 with a 5.15 significant-strike rate and 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes. Mixing his striking with more frequent takedown attempts gives him a way to vary the exchanges against Oki.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Oki maintains his 6.42 significant strikes per minute as Santos changes levels.
- How often Santos turns his 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes into controlled offense.
- Whether Oki’s recorded 75% takedown defense holds up when Santos initiates grappling.
Records & career stats
- Belgium
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 30
- Age
- 31
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 09:48
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 11:33
- Valon Team
- Team
- Chute Boxe
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(12) 31%
LOki
69% (27)
SantosW
UFC Predict — Logistic Core
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Bolaji Oki for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
MMA Lock of the Night
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
MMA Lock of the Night picks Bolaji Oki by KO/TKO in round 2. round 2 stated as 'probably'
“think it's going to be Bellagio. I think”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
AJ Devito
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
AJ Devito picks Bolaji Oki. For now; hinges on Oki's weight cut and weigh-ins
“am for now. Finch. Sticking with Oi.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Selects Bolaji Oki to win.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Tony Sink
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Doc's Sports — Tony Sink explicitly selects Bolaji Oki; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (11 hit, 6 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 11 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
UFC Predict — CatBoost
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Bolaji Oki for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.3% 9 5
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
KingofCrackdown5095
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Bolaji Oki by KO/TKO in round 2. low confidence
“this one I have Balaji Oki via second”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.7% 37 26
- Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11
- Round Accuracy 42.1% 8 11
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Kunath
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Kunath picks Bolaji Oki. Says Oki gets either a decision or a late knockout; no single method chosen.
“them odds, so give me Bolaji Oki to win.”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.5% 38 27
- Method Accuracy 56.7% 17 13
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
UFC Predict — Ensemble
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Bolaji Oki for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
UFC Predict — LightGBM
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Bolaji Oki for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
UFC Predict — XGBoost
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Bolaji Oki for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Bolaji Oki
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Jon Litterine explicitly selects Bolaji Oki; no method or round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Bedtime MMA picks Daniel Santos by KO/TKO.
“Santos by round two or three TKO. I”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
FightIQ's model explicitly backs Daniel Santos at 55% on its picks page.
“The model backs Daniel Santos at 55%”
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Jimbo Ortega MMA picks Daniel Santos by KO/TKO.
“Give me Santos by KO. Skill for skill.”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.9% 38 18
- Method Accuracy 62.1% 18 11
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
Tom Feely
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · Round 2
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Sherdog prelims preview by Tom Feely names Santos as the pick, by second-round stoppage; the stoppage type is not stated.
“The pick is Santos by second-round stoppage.”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.6% 23 11
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 5 5
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
Michael Chiesa
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Selects Daniel Santos to win.
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 50 25
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
JakeGerberMMA picks Daniel Santos by KO/TKO in round 2. Siding with Santos ever so slightly; says he does not trust either fighter
“up. So, give me Santos here by second”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Fite Feed
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Fite Feed picks Daniel Santos by KO/TKO in round 1.
“I think he'll KO him in round number one actually.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.9% 24 13
- Method Accuracy 60.9% 14 9
- Round Accuracy 21.4% 3 11
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
DFS By The Numbers picks Daniel Santos by KO/TKO in round 2.
“Give me Daniel Santos to win this fight by second round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
UFC Predict — Main + Market
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Daniel Santos for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.3% 9 5
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
138 MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
138 MMA picks Daniel Santos.
“Santos. So, Daniel Santos is my pick.”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 42 24
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 43.8% 7 9
Mate Bersenadze
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Selects Daniel Santos to win.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.5% 33 19
- Method Accuracy 51.5% 17 16
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Livid Larry MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Livid Larry MMA picks Daniel Santos by KO/TKO.
“rounds. But I'm going to go with Santos”
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.0% 34 20
- Method Accuracy 79.2% 19 5
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
HopperMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
HopperMMA picks Daniel Santos by KO/TKO in round 2. high confidence
“go Willie Santos by TKO in the second”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Daniel Santos via knockout is Lucrative James's official prediction.
“So, I'll go with Santos via knockout as my official prediction.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Fight Genie (Claude)
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Fight Genie Claude explicitly selects f_86e805 for Oki–Santos on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.3% 16 11
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 8 8
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
The Oracle (Blueprint MMA)
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
The Oracle by Blueprint MMA selects Daniel Santos at 54%; winner only.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.3% 16 11
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Tim Edwards
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Selects Daniel Santos to win.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.8% (20 hit, 14 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.8% 20 14
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
Mike Finch
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Selects Daniel Santos to win.
* Leans toward Santos with no bet on the fight. His knockout expectation depends on Oki looking poor at Friday’s weigh-ins.
Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.4% 31 23
- Method Accuracy 68.2% 15 7
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
MMA Intel
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
MMA Intel explicitly selects Daniel Santos; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Sean Zerillo
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Selects Daniel Santos to win.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.3% (9 hit, 7 miss, across 16 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 16 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.3% 9 7
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Fight Genie (GPT)
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Fight Genie GPT explicitly selects f_86e805 for Oki–Santos on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Method Accuracy 53.3% 8 7
- Round Accuracy 16.7% 1 5
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
MMA.SOCIAL
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Daniel Santos by ko/tko; no round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Chris Schweppe picks Daniel Santos by first-round knockout over Bolaji Oki.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Jeff Fox
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Selects Daniel Santos to win.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 17 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Andy Lang
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Selects Daniel Santos to win.
Track record: winner called in 18 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (18 hit, 17 miss, across 35 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 35 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 18 17
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
The Lab Analytics
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
The Lab Analytics' explicit model pick selects Daniel Santos (59.8% model probability; LOW confidence, LOW tier). The page publishes no method or round. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 observed page snapshot; no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 10 15
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
FIGHT//AI
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniel Santos
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
FIGHT//AI selects Daniel Santos; the event forecast states a winner probability but no method or round.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
No pick
View full track record (65 calls)
Lucas Tracy
Current pick evidence
No pick has been recorded.
Fight result: Daniel Santos · Decision
Calls it a 50/50 and declines to pick
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 44 21
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Analyst picks: UFC Predict — Logistic Core Miss; Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Tom Feely Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; Michael Chiesa Hit; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Fite Feed Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Tony Sink Miss; UFC Predict — CatBoost Miss; UFC Predict — Main + Market Hit; 138 MMA Hit; Mate Bersenadze Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; HopperMMA Hit; James Blissett Hit; Fight Genie (Claude) Hit; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Hit; Tim Edwards Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Kunath Miss; Mike Finch Hit; MMA Intel Hit; UFC Predict — Ensemble Miss; UFC Predict — LightGBM Miss; UFC Predict — XGBoost Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Sean Zerillo Hit; Fight Genie (GPT) Hit; MMA.SOCIAL Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Jeff Fox Hit; Andy Lang Hit; The Lab Analytics Hit; FIGHT//AI Hit; Lucas Tracy no pick.
27 of 39 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Santos · Decision · R3
Closest probability Gemini put 55% on Santos.
49%
Oki
49%
Santos
PickEven — no pickActualSantos · Decision · R3
Not scored — no pick
44%
Oki
55%
Santos
PickSantos · DecisionActualSantos · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Santos
Most likely: Santos by KO/TKO, about 32 in 100
Win chance: Oki 45%, Santos 54%, draw or no contest 1%.
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Even — no pick
Most likely: Oki by decision, about 24 in 100
Win chance: Oki 49%, Santos 49%, draw or no contest 2%.
No confidence level: the model has it even
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Santos
Most likely: Santos by decision, about 26 in 100
Win chance: Oki 44%, Santos 55%, draw or no contest 2%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
2 of 3 models pick Santos; Claude has it even.
Questions
The result 8 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Santos: 54% (about 54 in 100 fights). Oki: 45%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Even — no pick: Oki and Santos each win 49%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Santos: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Oki: 44%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Santos by KO/TKO: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Claude
Oki by decision: 24% (about 24 in 100).
Gemini
Santos by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Santos by KO/TKO (32%); 2. Oki by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Santos by decision (17%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by KO/TKO: Santos's sustained pressure can expose Oki's defensive openings as exchanges lengthen. Oki enters after consecutive stoppage losses and is making his featherweight debut.
- Oki by KO/TKO: Oki's reach and explosive punching give him a strong countering opportunity against Santos's forward pressure. Santos's recent stoppage loss shows that trading carries real danger.
- Santos by decision: If Oki withstands the exchanges, Santos can still accumulate rounds through pressure, combinations and occasional takedowns. His established featherweight experience supports that route.
Claude
1. Oki by decision (24%); 2. Santos by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Santos by decision (20%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by decision: Santos has steadier output and has been more durable lately, so he likely banks rounds over three.
- Oki by decision: Oki's wrestling and takedown success can win rounds on control if he avoids exchanges.
- Santos by KO/TKO: Oki has been stopped in his last two fights, giving Santos a real chance of an early stoppage.
Gemini
1. Santos by decision (26%); 2. Oki by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Santos by KO/TKO (21%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by decision: Santos pushes a relentless Muay Thai pace and mixes in timely takedowns that can wear Oki down after his cut to featherweight. His superior grappling and second-half output give him a clear edge on the scorecards.
- Oki by KO/TKO: Oki holds a significant reach advantage and carries heavy early punching power moving down from lightweight. Santos absorbs high striking volume and is vulnerable to clean counters in the opening frame.
- Santos by KO/TKO: Oki has been stopped by strikes in recent middle and late rounds when his cardio fades under pressure. Santos excels at forcing chaotic exchanges and accumulating damage with knees, punches, and ground strikes.
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Santos's 54% win chance.
Claude
No confidence level: the model has it even, so it makes no pick.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Santos's 55% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
How does Oki win?
ChatGPT
Oki wins 45%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 2%, decision 16%.
Claude
Oki wins 49%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Oki wins 44%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 2%, decision 20%.
How does Santos win?
ChatGPT
Santos wins 54%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%, decision 17%.
Claude
Santos wins 49%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 8%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Santos wins 55%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 9%, decision 26%.
The fight in one sentence
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki should threaten early with his reach and power, but I narrowly favour Santos to close distance and force a stoppage through sustained pressure.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, competitive featherweight bout where Santos' steadier output edges a decision, with real finish risk both ways.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos should weather Bolaji Oki's dangerous early punching power and take over with relentless Muay Thai pressure and grappling to win a decision or late stoppage.
Timing 1 question
Which round is most likely to end it?
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 26%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 23%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (38% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 21%.
What if 3 questions
If it gets past round 1, what changes?
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Oki 40% (from 45%), Santos 58% (from 54%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos should find more opportunities to sustain close-range exchanges as Oki's initial explosiveness fades. Oki can still win rounds if his jab and movement keep working.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Oki 49% (from 49%), Santos 48% (from 49%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, wrestling from Oki and Santos' volume decide rounds, and fatigue plus cardio becomes a factor. Finish chances stay live but decline.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Oki 39% (from 44%), Santos 59% (from 55%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the first round, the fight shifts heavily in favor of Daniel Santos as Bolaji Oki's explosive power and cardio begin to fade. Santos can then take over with high-volume combinations, knees, and timely takedowns.
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Oki's most likely upset: Oki by decision (16%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki can punish Santos's entries with straight punches, exploit his reach and hurt him before sustained pressure develops. Mixing in takedowns could also interrupt Santos's rhythm.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki lands an early power shot or mixes in takedowns and control to win rounds, avoiding Santos' body work.
Gemini
Oki's most likely upset: Oki by decision (20%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki is most likely to pull off the win by capitalizing on his reach and heavy hands in the first round, catching a hittable Daniel Santos with clean counters for an early knockout.
What is each fighter's best path to victory?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki should establish his jab, counter Santos's entries and use selective clinches or takedowns to reset the pace. Santos should crowd Oki, attack the body and combine extended striking exchanges with opportunistic wrestling.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki: use wrestling and takedowns to grind and avoid trading on the feet. Santos: keep a steady pace, attack the body and head, and bank rounds or find a late stoppage.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos should push a relentless Muay Thai pace and mix in takedowns to wear down his opponent over three rounds. Bolaji Oki needs to use his reach advantage and heavy hands to land clean counter punches early before the pace drains his gas tank.
What to watch 1 question
What should I watch for early?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Oki can land his jab and exit before Santos answers. Also watch whether Santos can make Oki work continuously against the fence.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Oki shoots for takedowns or trades, and how each man handles the first clean power shot and body work.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Bolaji Oki can keep the fight at kicking and boxing range with his jab and counters, and whether Daniel Santos can immediately close the distance to initiate clinches or takedowns without getting clipped.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models that pick agree: 2 of 3 pick Santos. Claude makes no pick.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Santos by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Santos by KO/TKO (32%).
Claude
Result: Santos by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Oki by decision (24%).
Gemini
Result: Santos by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
17% (about 17 in 100).
Claude
20% (about 20 in 100).
Gemini
26% (about 26 in 100).
More questions (37)
The result 10 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 59%, submission 7%, decision 33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 39%, submission 16%, decision 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 44%, submission 10%, decision 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Chance of a draw or no contest
ChatGPT
1%.
Claude
2%.
Gemini
2%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Santos: 37%, against 29% for Oki.
Claude
Santos: 29%, against 26% for Oki.
Gemini
Santos: 30%, against 24% for Oki.
Can Oki get the finish? Can Santos?
ChatGPT
Oki: 29% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 2%). Santos: 37% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%).
Claude
Oki: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%). Santos: 29% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 8%).
Gemini
Oki: 24% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 2%). Santos: 30% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 9%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Oki is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 5%. Santos is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 2%.
Claude
Oki is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 8%. Santos is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%.
Gemini
Oki is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 9%. Santos is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 2%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 54% vs 45%.
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 49% vs 49%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Oki by decision: 16%. Santos by decision: 17%.
Claude
Oki by decision: 24%. Santos by decision: 20%.
Gemini
Oki by decision: 20%. Santos by decision: 26%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Oki wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Gemini
Oki wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 7th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 4th closest, and the 7th most likely to end early.
Is this fight worth watching?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their aggressive striking and defensive openings make this a promising action fight with room for sudden momentum changes.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, as a prelim it should be a fast, eventful scrap between two finishers with questionable durability.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is a highly entertaining clash between Bolaji Oki's explosive early knockout power and Daniel Santos's chaotic, high-pace Muay Thai style.
Timing 6 questions
Chance it ends in round 1
ChatGPT
25%.
Claude
23%.
Gemini
21%.
Chance it is over by round 2
ChatGPT
51%.
Claude
42%.
Gemini
41%.
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Chance of a finish in the final round
ChatGPT
Round 3: 15%.
Claude
Round 3: 13%.
Gemini
Round 3: 13%.
If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 90%, submission 10%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 72%, submission 28%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 83%, submission 17%.
Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 52%. If it goes longer: Santos 57%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 25%, Santos 27%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 53%. If it goes longer: Oki 53%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 20%, Santos 23%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 51%. If it goes longer: Santos 60%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 20%, Santos 21%.
What if 2 questions
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Oki 49%, Santos 52%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Oki 55%, Santos 46%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Oki 43%, Santos 57%.
What could make this fight one-sided?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos could take over if Oki cannot maintain distance or recover between exchanges. Oki could dominate instead if his size lets him consistently stop entries and control clinches.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard An early knockout either way could end it quickly, most likely if Oki's recent durability issues show again or Santos gets taken down and controlled.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki could make this look one-sided with a quick first-round knockout if he catches Daniel Santos coming in recklessly. Alternatively, Santos could dominate from start to finish if he immediately grounds Oki and exhausts him.
What to watch 7 questions
What is the key matchup edge?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos has the edge in sustaining pressure at close range, where Oki's reach matters less and defensive lapses become more costly.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's wrestling against Santos' more consistent striking volume and durability.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos holds the most important edge with his superior cardio and well-rounded Muay Thai and grappling pressure, which directly targets Bolaji Oki's tendency to slow down after the first round.
What is the biggest X-factor?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's first featherweight cut is the biggest variable: his larger frame could bring a physical advantage, but making weight alone does not establish how well he will recover.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's move up to featherweight and how his chin holds after consecutive stoppage losses.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is how Bolaji Oki handles the weight cut down from lightweight to featherweight, as it could either amplify his size and power advantage or severely compromise his already suspect stamina.
What would change the model's mind?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Oki retains his stamina and durability after the cut would move me toward him, especially if his size translates into reliable clinch control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a rough weight cut or injury, or a clear early finish tendency, would shift the pick.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Bolaji Oki look depleted or sluggish on the scale during his cut to featherweight would tilt the outlook further toward Daniel Santos. Conversely, if Oki demonstrates improved takedown defense and pacing early on, his chances of winning a decision rise.
What are the biggest unknowns?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish how well Oki recovered from his first featherweight cut or obtain detailed, reliable information about either fighter's preparation for this matchup.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's condition at the new weight and his chin after recent stoppages; Santos' recovery from his last body-shot loss.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Bolaji Oki's cardio and durability will hold up after cutting down from lightweight to featherweight, and whether he has closed the defensive grappling gaps that troubled him previously.
Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favour Santos in sustained striking exchanges, while Oki has the cleaner route at long range. Santos gets a tentative grappling edge through his more established wrestling output.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos should win the striking with steadier volume; Oki should win the grappling with better takedown success.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki has the edge in early long-range striking due to his reach and punching power, though Daniel Santos can take over the striking late with volume. Santos clearly wins the grappling thanks to his superior takedowns and top control.
Who is better late in the fight?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos is slightly better placed in rounds two and three through sustained pressure. Oki's recent stoppage losses and unfamiliar weight cut make his late-round resilience harder to trust.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos is slightly better placed later because of consistent output and fewer recent damage issues, while Oki's grappling can still steal rounds.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos is much better placed in the later rounds because he thrives on high-volume pressure and second-half output, whereas Bolaji Oki has historically faded and been stopped late under sustained pressure.
Biggest danger for Oki, and for Santos
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's biggest danger is being drawn into prolonged exchanges after Santos gets inside his reach. Santos's biggest danger is absorbing a powerful straight counter from the larger man while advancing.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki: another early knockout loss if he trades with Santos. Santos: being taken down and controlled, or a body shot-style vulnerability resurfacing.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Daniel Santos, the biggest danger is absorbing clean, heavy counter punches in the opening round while pressuring recklessly. For Bolaji Oki, the biggest danger is having his cardio drained by relentless clinching, takedowns, and volume striking in the second and third rounds.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Santos by decision, 17% here against 23% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Oki by decision, 24% here against 18% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Santos by decision, 26% here against 18% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model picks Santos (54%).
Claude
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model has it even — no pick.
Gemini
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model picks Santos (55%).
Which model is most confident on Oki, and which on Santos?
All models
On Oki: Claude (49%). On Santos: Gemini (55%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Santos by decision: from 17% (ChatGPT) to 26% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Fight Genie (Claude) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Fight Genie (GPT) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), DFS By The Numbers (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), HopperMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2) and JakeGerberMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Santos, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 2).
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Santos by KO/TKO in round 1), The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) (Santos), MMA.SOCIAL (Santos by KO/TKO), FIGHT//AI (Santos), MMA Intel (Santos), Fight Genie (Claude) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Fight Genie (GPT) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), The Lab Analytics (Santos), UFC Predict — Main + Market (Santos), FightIQ (Santos), 138 MMA (Santos), Bedtime MMA (Santos by KO/TKO), DFS By The Numbers (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Fite Feed (Santos by KO/TKO in round 1), HopperMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), JakeGerberMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Santos by KO/TKO), Livid Larry MMA (Santos by KO/TKO), James Blissett (Santos by KO/TKO), Tom Feely (Santos), Mate Bersenadze (Santos by KO/TKO), Tim Edwards (Santos), Andy Lang (Santos), Jeff Fox (Santos by KO/TKO), Sean Zerillo (Santos by KO/TKO), Michael Chiesa (Santos) and Mike Finch (Santos): the same winner as this model, tied; this model favours Santos, most likely by decision.
How sure 5 questions
How good has this model been?
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
All models
Gemini, which gave the actual result 26%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Santos
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Santos by KO/TKO, about 32 in 100
Win chance: Oki 45%, Santos 54%, draw or no contest 1%.
Most likely outcomes
- Santos by KO/TKO32%
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos's sustained pressure can expose Oki's defensive openings as exchanges lengthen. Oki enters after consecutive stoppage losses and is making his featherweight debut.
- Oki by KO/TKO27%
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's reach and explosive punching give him a strong countering opportunity against Santos's forward pressure. Santos's recent stoppage loss shows that trading carries real danger.
- Santos by decision17%
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Oki withstands the exchanges, Santos can still accumulate rounds through pressure, combinations and occasional takedowns. His established featherweight experience supports that route.
- Round 1: Oki KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%; Santos KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%.
- Round 2: Oki KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%; Santos KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%.
- Round 3: Oki KO/TKO 4%, submission 1%; Santos KO/TKO 9%, submission 2%.
- Decision: Oki 16%; Santos 17%.
Draw or no contest: 1%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
Show every outcome as a table
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oki KO/TKO | 14% | 9% | 4% | — |
| Oki Submission | 1% | 1% | 1% | — |
| Oki Decision | — | — | — | 16% |
| Santos KO/TKO | 9% | 14% | 9% | — |
| Santos Submission | 2% | 2% | 2% | — |
| Santos Decision | — | — | — | 17% |
| Draw or no contest | 1% | |||
Questions
The result 8 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Santos: 54% (about 54 in 100 fights). Oki: 45%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Even — no pick: Oki and Santos each win 49%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Santos: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Oki: 44%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Santos by KO/TKO: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Oki by decision: 24% (about 24 in 100).
Gemini
Santos by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Santos by KO/TKO (32%); 2. Oki by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Santos by decision (17%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by KO/TKO: Santos's sustained pressure can expose Oki's defensive openings as exchanges lengthen. Oki enters after consecutive stoppage losses and is making his featherweight debut.
- Oki by KO/TKO: Oki's reach and explosive punching give him a strong countering opportunity against Santos's forward pressure. Santos's recent stoppage loss shows that trading carries real danger.
- Santos by decision: If Oki withstands the exchanges, Santos can still accumulate rounds through pressure, combinations and occasional takedowns. His established featherweight experience supports that route.
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Oki by decision (24%); 2. Santos by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Santos by decision (20%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by decision: Santos has steadier output and has been more durable lately, so he likely banks rounds over three.
- Oki by decision: Oki's wrestling and takedown success can win rounds on control if he avoids exchanges.
- Santos by KO/TKO: Oki has been stopped in his last two fights, giving Santos a real chance of an early stoppage.
Gemini
1. Santos by decision (26%); 2. Oki by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Santos by KO/TKO (21%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by decision: Santos pushes a relentless Muay Thai pace and mixes in timely takedowns that can wear Oki down after his cut to featherweight. His superior grappling and second-half output give him a clear edge on the scorecards.
- Oki by KO/TKO: Oki holds a significant reach advantage and carries heavy early punching power moving down from lightweight. Santos absorbs high striking volume and is vulnerable to clean counters in the opening frame.
- Santos by KO/TKO: Oki has been stopped by strikes in recent middle and late rounds when his cardio fades under pressure. Santos excels at forcing chaotic exchanges and accumulating damage with knees, punches, and ground strikes.
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Santos's 54% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
No confidence level: the model has it even, so it makes no pick.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Santos's 55% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
How does Oki win?
ChatGPT
Oki wins 45%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 2%, decision 16%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Oki wins 49%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Oki wins 44%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 2%, decision 20%.
How does Santos win?
ChatGPT
Santos wins 54%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%, decision 17%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Santos wins 49%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 8%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Santos wins 55%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 9%, decision 26%.
The fight in one sentence
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki should threaten early with his reach and power, but I narrowly favour Santos to close distance and force a stoppage through sustained pressure.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, competitive featherweight bout where Santos' steadier output edges a decision, with real finish risk both ways.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos should weather Bolaji Oki's dangerous early punching power and take over with relentless Muay Thai pressure and grappling to win a decision or late stoppage.
Timing 1 question
Which round is most likely to end it?
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 26%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 23%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (38% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 21%.
What if 3 questions
If it gets past round 1, what changes?
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Oki 40% (from 45%), Santos 58% (from 54%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos should find more opportunities to sustain close-range exchanges as Oki's initial explosiveness fades. Oki can still win rounds if his jab and movement keep working.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Oki 49% (from 49%), Santos 48% (from 49%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, wrestling from Oki and Santos' volume decide rounds, and fatigue plus cardio becomes a factor. Finish chances stay live but decline.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Oki 39% (from 44%), Santos 59% (from 55%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the first round, the fight shifts heavily in favor of Daniel Santos as Bolaji Oki's explosive power and cardio begin to fade. Santos can then take over with high-volume combinations, knees, and timely takedowns.
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Oki's most likely upset: Oki by decision (16%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki can punish Santos's entries with straight punches, exploit his reach and hurt him before sustained pressure develops. Mixing in takedowns could also interrupt Santos's rhythm.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki lands an early power shot or mixes in takedowns and control to win rounds, avoiding Santos' body work.
Gemini
Oki's most likely upset: Oki by decision (20%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki is most likely to pull off the win by capitalizing on his reach and heavy hands in the first round, catching a hittable Daniel Santos with clean counters for an early knockout.
What is each fighter's best path to victory?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki should establish his jab, counter Santos's entries and use selective clinches or takedowns to reset the pace. Santos should crowd Oki, attack the body and combine extended striking exchanges with opportunistic wrestling.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki: use wrestling and takedowns to grind and avoid trading on the feet. Santos: keep a steady pace, attack the body and head, and bank rounds or find a late stoppage.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos should push a relentless Muay Thai pace and mix in takedowns to wear down his opponent over three rounds. Bolaji Oki needs to use his reach advantage and heavy hands to land clean counter punches early before the pace drains his gas tank.
What to watch 1 question
What should I watch for early?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Oki can land his jab and exit before Santos answers. Also watch whether Santos can make Oki work continuously against the fence.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Oki shoots for takedowns or trades, and how each man handles the first clean power shot and body work.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Bolaji Oki can keep the fight at kicking and boxing range with his jab and counters, and whether Daniel Santos can immediately close the distance to initiate clinches or takedowns without getting clipped.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models that pick agree: 2 of 3 pick Santos. Claude makes no pick.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Santos by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Santos by KO/TKO (32%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Santos by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Oki by decision (24%).
Gemini
Result: Santos by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
17% (about 17 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
20% (about 20 in 100).
Gemini
26% (about 26 in 100).
More questions (37)
The result 10 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 59%, submission 7%, decision 33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 39%, submission 16%, decision 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 44%, submission 10%, decision 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Chance of a draw or no contest
ChatGPT
1%.
Other models' answers
Claude
2%.
Gemini
2%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Santos: 37%, against 29% for Oki.
Other models' answers
Claude
Santos: 29%, against 26% for Oki.
Gemini
Santos: 30%, against 24% for Oki.
Can Oki get the finish? Can Santos?
ChatGPT
Oki: 29% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 2%). Santos: 37% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Oki: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%). Santos: 29% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 8%).
Gemini
Oki: 24% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 2%). Santos: 30% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 9%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Oki is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 5%. Santos is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 2%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Oki is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 8%. Santos is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%.
Gemini
Oki is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 9%. Santos is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 2%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 54% vs 45%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 49% vs 49%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Oki by decision: 16%. Santos by decision: 17%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Oki by decision: 24%. Santos by decision: 20%.
Gemini
Oki by decision: 20%. Santos by decision: 26%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Oki wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Oki wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
Other models' answers
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 7th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 4th closest, and the 7th most likely to end early.
Is this fight worth watching?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their aggressive striking and defensive openings make this a promising action fight with room for sudden momentum changes.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, as a prelim it should be a fast, eventful scrap between two finishers with questionable durability.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is a highly entertaining clash between Bolaji Oki's explosive early knockout power and Daniel Santos's chaotic, high-pace Muay Thai style.
Timing 6 questions
Chance it ends in round 1
ChatGPT
25%.
Other models' answers
Claude
23%.
Gemini
21%.
Chance it is over by round 2
ChatGPT
51%.
Other models' answers
Claude
42%.
Gemini
41%.
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Other models' answers
Claude
43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Chance of a finish in the final round
ChatGPT
Round 3: 15%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Round 3: 13%.
Gemini
Round 3: 13%.
If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 90%, submission 10%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 72%, submission 28%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 83%, submission 17%.
Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 52%. If it goes longer: Santos 57%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 25%, Santos 27%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 53%. If it goes longer: Oki 53%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 20%, Santos 23%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 51%. If it goes longer: Santos 60%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 20%, Santos 21%.
What if 2 questions
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Oki 49%, Santos 52%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Oki 55%, Santos 46%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Oki 43%, Santos 57%.
What could make this fight one-sided?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos could take over if Oki cannot maintain distance or recover between exchanges. Oki could dominate instead if his size lets him consistently stop entries and control clinches.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard An early knockout either way could end it quickly, most likely if Oki's recent durability issues show again or Santos gets taken down and controlled.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki could make this look one-sided with a quick first-round knockout if he catches Daniel Santos coming in recklessly. Alternatively, Santos could dominate from start to finish if he immediately grounds Oki and exhausts him.
What to watch 7 questions
What is the key matchup edge?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos has the edge in sustaining pressure at close range, where Oki's reach matters less and defensive lapses become more costly.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's wrestling against Santos' more consistent striking volume and durability.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos holds the most important edge with his superior cardio and well-rounded Muay Thai and grappling pressure, which directly targets Bolaji Oki's tendency to slow down after the first round.
What is the biggest X-factor?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's first featherweight cut is the biggest variable: his larger frame could bring a physical advantage, but making weight alone does not establish how well he will recover.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's move up to featherweight and how his chin holds after consecutive stoppage losses.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is how Bolaji Oki handles the weight cut down from lightweight to featherweight, as it could either amplify his size and power advantage or severely compromise his already suspect stamina.
What would change the model's mind?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Oki retains his stamina and durability after the cut would move me toward him, especially if his size translates into reliable clinch control.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a rough weight cut or injury, or a clear early finish tendency, would shift the pick.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Bolaji Oki look depleted or sluggish on the scale during his cut to featherweight would tilt the outlook further toward Daniel Santos. Conversely, if Oki demonstrates improved takedown defense and pacing early on, his chances of winning a decision rise.
What are the biggest unknowns?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish how well Oki recovered from his first featherweight cut or obtain detailed, reliable information about either fighter's preparation for this matchup.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's condition at the new weight and his chin after recent stoppages; Santos' recovery from his last body-shot loss.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Bolaji Oki's cardio and durability will hold up after cutting down from lightweight to featherweight, and whether he has closed the defensive grappling gaps that troubled him previously.
Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favour Santos in sustained striking exchanges, while Oki has the cleaner route at long range. Santos gets a tentative grappling edge through his more established wrestling output.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos should win the striking with steadier volume; Oki should win the grappling with better takedown success.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki has the edge in early long-range striking due to his reach and punching power, though Daniel Santos can take over the striking late with volume. Santos clearly wins the grappling thanks to his superior takedowns and top control.
Who is better late in the fight?
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos is slightly better placed in rounds two and three through sustained pressure. Oki's recent stoppage losses and unfamiliar weight cut make his late-round resilience harder to trust.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos is slightly better placed later because of consistent output and fewer recent damage issues, while Oki's grappling can still steal rounds.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos is much better placed in the later rounds because he thrives on high-volume pressure and second-half output, whereas Bolaji Oki has historically faded and been stopped late under sustained pressure.
Biggest danger for Oki, and for Santos
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's biggest danger is being drawn into prolonged exchanges after Santos gets inside his reach. Santos's biggest danger is absorbing a powerful straight counter from the larger man while advancing.
Other models' answers
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki: another early knockout loss if he trades with Santos. Santos: being taken down and controlled, or a body shot-style vulnerability resurfacing.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Daniel Santos, the biggest danger is absorbing clean, heavy counter punches in the opening round while pressuring recklessly. For Bolaji Oki, the biggest danger is having his cardio drained by relentless clinching, takedowns, and volume striking in the second and third rounds.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Santos by decision, 17% here against 23% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: Oki by decision, 24% here against 18% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Santos by decision, 26% here against 18% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model picks Santos (54%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model has it even — no pick.
Gemini
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model picks Santos (55%).
Which model is most confident on Oki, and which on Santos?
ChatGPT
On Oki: Claude (49%). On Santos: Gemini (55%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Santos by decision: from 17% (ChatGPT) to 26% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Fight Genie (Claude) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Fight Genie (GPT) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), DFS By The Numbers (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), HopperMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2) and JakeGerberMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Santos, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 2).
Other models' answers
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Santos by KO/TKO in round 1), The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) (Santos), MMA.SOCIAL (Santos by KO/TKO), FIGHT//AI (Santos), MMA Intel (Santos), Fight Genie (Claude) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Fight Genie (GPT) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), The Lab Analytics (Santos), UFC Predict — Main + Market (Santos), FightIQ (Santos), 138 MMA (Santos), Bedtime MMA (Santos by KO/TKO), DFS By The Numbers (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Fite Feed (Santos by KO/TKO in round 1), HopperMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), JakeGerberMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Santos by KO/TKO), Livid Larry MMA (Santos by KO/TKO), James Blissett (Santos by KO/TKO), Tom Feely (Santos), Mate Bersenadze (Santos by KO/TKO), Tim Edwards (Santos), Andy Lang (Santos), Jeff Fox (Santos by KO/TKO), Sean Zerillo (Santos by KO/TKO), Michael Chiesa (Santos) and Mike Finch (Santos): the same winner as this model, tied; this model favours Santos, most likely by decision.
How sure 5 questions
How good has this model been?
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Other models' answers
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
ChatGPT
Gemini, which gave the actual result 26%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Even — no pick
No confidence level: the model has it even
Most likely: Oki by decision, about 24 in 100
Win chance: Oki 49%, Santos 49%, draw or no contest 2%.
Most likely outcomes
- Oki by decision24%
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's wrestling and takedown success can win rounds on control if he avoids exchanges.
- Santos by KO/TKO22%
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki has been stopped in his last two fights, giving Santos a real chance of an early stoppage.
- Santos by decision20%
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos has steadier output and has been more durable lately, so he likely banks rounds over three.
- Round 1: Oki KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%; Santos KO/TKO 9%, submission 3%.
- Round 2: Oki KO/TKO 6%, submission 3%; Santos KO/TKO 8%, submission 3%.
- Round 3: Oki KO/TKO 4%, submission 2%; Santos KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%.
- Decision: Oki 24%; Santos 20%.
Draw or no contest: 2%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
Show every outcome as a table
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oki KO/TKO | 8% | 6% | 4% | — |
| Oki Submission | 3% | 3% | 2% | — |
| Oki Decision | — | — | — | 24% |
| Santos KO/TKO | 9% | 8% | 5% | — |
| Santos Submission | 3% | 3% | 2% | — |
| Santos Decision | — | — | — | 20% |
| Draw or no contest | 2% | |||
Questions
The result 8 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Even — no pick: Oki and Santos each win 49%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Santos: 54% (about 54 in 100 fights). Oki: 45%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Santos: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Oki: 44%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Oki by decision: 24% (about 24 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Santos by KO/TKO: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Gemini
Santos by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Oki by decision (24%); 2. Santos by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Santos by decision (20%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by decision: Santos has steadier output and has been more durable lately, so he likely banks rounds over three.
- Oki by decision: Oki's wrestling and takedown success can win rounds on control if he avoids exchanges.
- Santos by KO/TKO: Oki has been stopped in his last two fights, giving Santos a real chance of an early stoppage.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Santos by KO/TKO (32%); 2. Oki by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Santos by decision (17%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by KO/TKO: Santos's sustained pressure can expose Oki's defensive openings as exchanges lengthen. Oki enters after consecutive stoppage losses and is making his featherweight debut.
- Oki by KO/TKO: Oki's reach and explosive punching give him a strong countering opportunity against Santos's forward pressure. Santos's recent stoppage loss shows that trading carries real danger.
- Santos by decision: If Oki withstands the exchanges, Santos can still accumulate rounds through pressure, combinations and occasional takedowns. His established featherweight experience supports that route.
Gemini
1. Santos by decision (26%); 2. Oki by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Santos by KO/TKO (21%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by decision: Santos pushes a relentless Muay Thai pace and mixes in timely takedowns that can wear Oki down after his cut to featherweight. His superior grappling and second-half output give him a clear edge on the scorecards.
- Oki by KO/TKO: Oki holds a significant reach advantage and carries heavy early punching power moving down from lightweight. Santos absorbs high striking volume and is vulnerable to clean counters in the opening frame.
- Santos by KO/TKO: Oki has been stopped by strikes in recent middle and late rounds when his cardio fades under pressure. Santos excels at forcing chaotic exchanges and accumulating damage with knees, punches, and ground strikes.
How confident is the model?
Claude
No confidence level: the model has it even, so it makes no pick.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Santos's 54% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Santos's 55% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
How does Oki win?
Claude
Oki wins 49%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 24%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki wins 45%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 2%, decision 16%.
Gemini
Oki wins 44%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 2%, decision 20%.
How does Santos win?
Claude
Santos wins 49%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 8%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Santos wins 54%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%, decision 17%.
Gemini
Santos wins 55%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 9%, decision 26%.
The fight in one sentence
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, competitive featherweight bout where Santos' steadier output edges a decision, with real finish risk both ways.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki should threaten early with his reach and power, but I narrowly favour Santos to close distance and force a stoppage through sustained pressure.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos should weather Bolaji Oki's dangerous early punching power and take over with relentless Muay Thai pressure and grappling to win a decision or late stoppage.
Timing 1 question
Which round is most likely to end it?
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 23%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 26%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (38% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 21%.
What if 3 questions
If it gets past round 1, what changes?
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Oki 49% (from 49%), Santos 48% (from 49%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, wrestling from Oki and Santos' volume decide rounds, and fatigue plus cardio becomes a factor. Finish chances stay live but decline.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Oki 40% (from 45%), Santos 58% (from 54%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos should find more opportunities to sustain close-range exchanges as Oki's initial explosiveness fades. Oki can still win rounds if his jab and movement keep working.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Oki 39% (from 44%), Santos 59% (from 55%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the first round, the fight shifts heavily in favor of Daniel Santos as Bolaji Oki's explosive power and cardio begin to fade. Santos can then take over with high-volume combinations, knees, and timely takedowns.
What is the upset path?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki lands an early power shot or mixes in takedowns and control to win rounds, avoiding Santos' body work.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki's most likely upset: Oki by decision (16%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki can punish Santos's entries with straight punches, exploit his reach and hurt him before sustained pressure develops. Mixing in takedowns could also interrupt Santos's rhythm.
Gemini
Oki's most likely upset: Oki by decision (20%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki is most likely to pull off the win by capitalizing on his reach and heavy hands in the first round, catching a hittable Daniel Santos with clean counters for an early knockout.
What is each fighter's best path to victory?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki: use wrestling and takedowns to grind and avoid trading on the feet. Santos: keep a steady pace, attack the body and head, and bank rounds or find a late stoppage.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki should establish his jab, counter Santos's entries and use selective clinches or takedowns to reset the pace. Santos should crowd Oki, attack the body and combine extended striking exchanges with opportunistic wrestling.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos should push a relentless Muay Thai pace and mix in takedowns to wear down his opponent over three rounds. Bolaji Oki needs to use his reach advantage and heavy hands to land clean counter punches early before the pace drains his gas tank.
What to watch 1 question
What should I watch for early?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Oki shoots for takedowns or trades, and how each man handles the first clean power shot and body work.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Oki can land his jab and exit before Santos answers. Also watch whether Santos can make Oki work continuously against the fence.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Bolaji Oki can keep the fight at kicking and boxing range with his jab and counters, and whether Daniel Santos can immediately close the distance to initiate clinches or takedowns without getting clipped.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models that pick agree: 2 of 3 pick Santos. Claude makes no pick.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Santos by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Oki by decision (24%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Santos by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Santos by KO/TKO (32%).
Gemini
Result: Santos by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Claude
20% (about 20 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
17% (about 17 in 100).
Gemini
26% (about 26 in 100).
More questions (35)
The result 9 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 39%, submission 16%, decision 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 59%, submission 7%, decision 33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 44%, submission 10%, decision 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Chance of a draw or no contest
Claude
2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Santos: 29%, against 26% for Oki.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Santos: 37%, against 29% for Oki.
Gemini
Santos: 30%, against 24% for Oki.
Can Oki get the finish? Can Santos?
Claude
Oki: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%). Santos: 29% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 8%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki: 29% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 2%). Santos: 37% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Oki: 24% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 2%). Santos: 30% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 9%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Oki is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 8%. Santos is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 5%. Santos is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 2%.
Gemini
Oki is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 9%. Santos is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 2%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 49% vs 49%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 54% vs 45%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Claude
Oki by decision: 24%. Santos by decision: 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki by decision: 16%. Santos by decision: 17%.
Gemini
Oki by decision: 20%. Santos by decision: 26%.
How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 7th most likely to end early.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 4th closest, and the 7th most likely to end early.
Is this fight worth watching?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, as a prelim it should be a fast, eventful scrap between two finishers with questionable durability.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their aggressive striking and defensive openings make this a promising action fight with room for sudden momentum changes.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is a highly entertaining clash between Bolaji Oki's explosive early knockout power and Daniel Santos's chaotic, high-pace Muay Thai style.
Timing 6 questions
Chance it ends in round 1
Claude
23%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
25%.
Gemini
21%.
Chance it is over by round 2
Claude
42%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
51%.
Gemini
41%.
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Chance of a finish in the final round
Claude
Round 3: 13%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Round 3: 15%.
If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 72%, submission 28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 90%, submission 10%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 83%, submission 17%.
Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 53%. If it goes longer: Oki 53%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 20%, Santos 23%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 52%. If it goes longer: Santos 57%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 25%, Santos 27%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 51%. If it goes longer: Santos 60%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 20%, Santos 21%.
What if 2 questions
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Oki 55%, Santos 46%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Oki 49%, Santos 52%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Oki 43%, Santos 57%.
What could make this fight one-sided?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard An early knockout either way could end it quickly, most likely if Oki's recent durability issues show again or Santos gets taken down and controlled.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos could take over if Oki cannot maintain distance or recover between exchanges. Oki could dominate instead if his size lets him consistently stop entries and control clinches.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki could make this look one-sided with a quick first-round knockout if he catches Daniel Santos coming in recklessly. Alternatively, Santos could dominate from start to finish if he immediately grounds Oki and exhausts him.
What to watch 7 questions
What is the key matchup edge?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's wrestling against Santos' more consistent striking volume and durability.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos has the edge in sustaining pressure at close range, where Oki's reach matters less and defensive lapses become more costly.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos holds the most important edge with his superior cardio and well-rounded Muay Thai and grappling pressure, which directly targets Bolaji Oki's tendency to slow down after the first round.
What is the biggest X-factor?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's move up to featherweight and how his chin holds after consecutive stoppage losses.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's first featherweight cut is the biggest variable: his larger frame could bring a physical advantage, but making weight alone does not establish how well he will recover.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is how Bolaji Oki handles the weight cut down from lightweight to featherweight, as it could either amplify his size and power advantage or severely compromise his already suspect stamina.
What would change the model's mind?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a rough weight cut or injury, or a clear early finish tendency, would shift the pick.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Oki retains his stamina and durability after the cut would move me toward him, especially if his size translates into reliable clinch control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Bolaji Oki look depleted or sluggish on the scale during his cut to featherweight would tilt the outlook further toward Daniel Santos. Conversely, if Oki demonstrates improved takedown defense and pacing early on, his chances of winning a decision rise.
What are the biggest unknowns?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's condition at the new weight and his chin after recent stoppages; Santos' recovery from his last body-shot loss.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish how well Oki recovered from his first featherweight cut or obtain detailed, reliable information about either fighter's preparation for this matchup.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Bolaji Oki's cardio and durability will hold up after cutting down from lightweight to featherweight, and whether he has closed the defensive grappling gaps that troubled him previously.
Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos should win the striking with steadier volume; Oki should win the grappling with better takedown success.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favour Santos in sustained striking exchanges, while Oki has the cleaner route at long range. Santos gets a tentative grappling edge through his more established wrestling output.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki has the edge in early long-range striking due to his reach and punching power, though Daniel Santos can take over the striking late with volume. Santos clearly wins the grappling thanks to his superior takedowns and top control.
Who is better late in the fight?
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos is slightly better placed later because of consistent output and fewer recent damage issues, while Oki's grappling can still steal rounds.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos is slightly better placed in rounds two and three through sustained pressure. Oki's recent stoppage losses and unfamiliar weight cut make his late-round resilience harder to trust.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos is much better placed in the later rounds because he thrives on high-volume pressure and second-half output, whereas Bolaji Oki has historically faded and been stopped late under sustained pressure.
Biggest danger for Oki, and for Santos
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki: another early knockout loss if he trades with Santos. Santos: being taken down and controlled, or a body shot-style vulnerability resurfacing.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's biggest danger is being drawn into prolonged exchanges after Santos gets inside his reach. Santos's biggest danger is absorbing a powerful straight counter from the larger man while advancing.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Daniel Santos, the biggest danger is absorbing clean, heavy counter punches in the opening round while pressuring recklessly. For Bolaji Oki, the biggest danger is having his cardio drained by relentless clinching, takedowns, and volume striking in the second and third rounds.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Oki by decision, 24% here against 18% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Santos by decision, 17% here against 23% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Santos by decision, 26% here against 18% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model has it even — no pick.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model picks Santos (54%).
Gemini
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model picks Santos (55%).
Which model is most confident on Oki, and which on Santos?
Claude
On Oki: Claude (49%). On Santos: Gemini (55%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Santos by decision: from 17% (ChatGPT) to 26% (Gemini).
How sure 5 questions
How good has this model been?
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Claude
Gemini, which gave the actual result 26%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Santos
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Santos by decision, about 26 in 100
Win chance: Oki 44%, Santos 55%, draw or no contest 2%.
Most likely outcomes
- Santos by decision26%
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos pushes a relentless Muay Thai pace and mixes in timely takedowns that can wear Oki down after his cut to featherweight. His superior grappling and second-half output give him a clear edge on the scorecards.
- Oki by KO/TKO23%
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki holds a significant reach advantage and carries heavy early punching power moving down from lightweight. Santos absorbs high striking volume and is vulnerable to clean counters in the opening frame.
- Santos by KO/TKO21%
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki has been stopped by strikes in recent middle and late rounds when his cardio fades under pressure. Santos excels at forcing chaotic exchanges and accumulating damage with knees, punches, and ground strikes.
- Round 1: Oki KO/TKO 12%, submission 1%; Santos KO/TKO 6%, submission 3%.
- Round 2: Oki KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%; Santos KO/TKO 9%, submission 4%.
- Round 3: Oki KO/TKO 4%, submission 1%; Santos KO/TKO 7%, submission 3%.
- Decision: Oki 20%; Santos 26%.
Draw or no contest: 2%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
Show every outcome as a table
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oki KO/TKO | 12% | 7% | 4% | — |
| Oki Submission | 1% | 1% | 1% | — |
| Oki Decision | — | — | — | 20% |
| Santos KO/TKO | 6% | 9% | 7% | — |
| Santos Submission | 3% | 4% | 3% | — |
| Santos Decision | — | — | — | 26% |
| Draw or no contest | 2% | |||
Questions
The result 8 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Santos: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Oki: 44%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Santos: 54% (about 54 in 100 fights). Oki: 45%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Even — no pick: Oki and Santos each win 49%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Santos by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Santos by KO/TKO: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Claude
Oki by decision: 24% (about 24 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Santos by decision (26%); 2. Oki by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Santos by KO/TKO (21%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by decision: Santos pushes a relentless Muay Thai pace and mixes in timely takedowns that can wear Oki down after his cut to featherweight. His superior grappling and second-half output give him a clear edge on the scorecards.
- Oki by KO/TKO: Oki holds a significant reach advantage and carries heavy early punching power moving down from lightweight. Santos absorbs high striking volume and is vulnerable to clean counters in the opening frame.
- Santos by KO/TKO: Oki has been stopped by strikes in recent middle and late rounds when his cardio fades under pressure. Santos excels at forcing chaotic exchanges and accumulating damage with knees, punches, and ground strikes.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Santos by KO/TKO (32%); 2. Oki by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Santos by decision (17%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by KO/TKO: Santos's sustained pressure can expose Oki's defensive openings as exchanges lengthen. Oki enters after consecutive stoppage losses and is making his featherweight debut.
- Oki by KO/TKO: Oki's reach and explosive punching give him a strong countering opportunity against Santos's forward pressure. Santos's recent stoppage loss shows that trading carries real danger.
- Santos by decision: If Oki withstands the exchanges, Santos can still accumulate rounds through pressure, combinations and occasional takedowns. His established featherweight experience supports that route.
Claude
1. Oki by decision (24%); 2. Santos by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Santos by decision (20%)
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard- Santos by decision: Santos has steadier output and has been more durable lately, so he likely banks rounds over three.
- Oki by decision: Oki's wrestling and takedown success can win rounds on control if he avoids exchanges.
- Santos by KO/TKO: Oki has been stopped in his last two fights, giving Santos a real chance of an early stoppage.
How confident is the model?
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Santos's 55% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Santos's 54% win chance.
Claude
No confidence level: the model has it even, so it makes no pick.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
How does Oki win?
Gemini
Oki wins 44%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 2%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki wins 45%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 2%, decision 16%.
Claude
Oki wins 49%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 24%.
How does Santos win?
Gemini
Santos wins 55%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 9%, decision 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Santos wins 54%: KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%, decision 17%.
Claude
Santos wins 49%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 8%, decision 20%.
The fight in one sentence
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos should weather Bolaji Oki's dangerous early punching power and take over with relentless Muay Thai pressure and grappling to win a decision or late stoppage.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki should threaten early with his reach and power, but I narrowly favour Santos to close distance and force a stoppage through sustained pressure.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close, competitive featherweight bout where Santos' steadier output edges a decision, with real finish risk both ways.
Timing 1 question
Which round is most likely to end it?
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (38% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 21%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 2 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-2 finish overall: 26%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 23%.
What if 3 questions
If it gets past round 1, what changes?
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Oki 39% (from 44%), Santos 59% (from 55%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the first round, the fight shifts heavily in favor of Daniel Santos as Bolaji Oki's explosive power and cardio begin to fade. Santos can then take over with high-volume combinations, knees, and timely takedowns.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Oki 40% (from 45%), Santos 58% (from 54%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos should find more opportunities to sustain close-range exchanges as Oki's initial explosiveness fades. Oki can still win rounds if his jab and movement keep working.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Oki 49% (from 49%), Santos 48% (from 49%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, wrestling from Oki and Santos' volume decide rounds, and fatigue plus cardio becomes a factor. Finish chances stay live but decline.
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Oki's most likely upset: Oki by decision (20%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki is most likely to pull off the win by capitalizing on his reach and heavy hands in the first round, catching a hittable Daniel Santos with clean counters for an early knockout.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki's most likely upset: Oki by decision (16%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki can punish Santos's entries with straight punches, exploit his reach and hurt him before sustained pressure develops. Mixing in takedowns could also interrupt Santos's rhythm.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki lands an early power shot or mixes in takedowns and control to win rounds, avoiding Santos' body work.
What is each fighter's best path to victory?
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos should push a relentless Muay Thai pace and mix in takedowns to wear down his opponent over three rounds. Bolaji Oki needs to use his reach advantage and heavy hands to land clean counter punches early before the pace drains his gas tank.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki should establish his jab, counter Santos's entries and use selective clinches or takedowns to reset the pace. Santos should crowd Oki, attack the body and combine extended striking exchanges with opportunistic wrestling.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki: use wrestling and takedowns to grind and avoid trading on the feet. Santos: keep a steady pace, attack the body and head, and bank rounds or find a late stoppage.
What to watch 1 question
What should I watch for early?
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Bolaji Oki can keep the fight at kicking and boxing range with his jab and counters, and whether Daniel Santos can immediately close the distance to initiate clinches or takedowns without getting clipped.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Oki can land his jab and exit before Santos answers. Also watch whether Santos can make Oki work continuously against the fence.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Oki shoots for takedowns or trades, and how each man handles the first clean power shot and body work.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models that pick agree: 2 of 3 pick Santos. Claude makes no pick.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Santos by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Santos by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Santos by KO/TKO (32%).
Claude
Result: Santos by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Oki by decision (24%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Gemini
26% (about 26 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
17% (about 17 in 100).
Claude
20% (about 20 in 100).
More questions (37)
The result 10 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 44%, submission 10%, decision 45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 59%, submission 7%, decision 33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 39%, submission 16%, decision 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Chance of a draw or no contest
Gemini
2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Santos: 30%, against 24% for Oki.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Santos: 37%, against 29% for Oki.
Claude
Santos: 29%, against 26% for Oki.
Can Oki get the finish? Can Santos?
Gemini
Oki: 24% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 2%). Santos: 30% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 9%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki: 29% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 2%). Santos: 37% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 5%).
Claude
Oki: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%). Santos: 29% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 8%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Oki is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 9%. Santos is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki is knocked out in 32% and submitted in 5%. Santos is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 2%.
Claude
Oki is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 8%. Santos is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
A clear favourite: 55% vs 44%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 54% vs 45%.
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 49% vs 49%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Oki by decision: 20%. Santos by decision: 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki by decision: 16%. Santos by decision: 17%.
Claude
Oki by decision: 24%. Santos by decision: 20%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Oki wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Oki wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 4th closest, and the 7th most likely to end early.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the closest, and the 7th most likely to end early.
Is this fight worth watching?
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, this is a highly entertaining clash between Bolaji Oki's explosive early knockout power and Daniel Santos's chaotic, high-pace Muay Thai style.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their aggressive striking and defensive openings make this a promising action fight with room for sudden momentum changes.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, as a prelim it should be a fast, eventful scrap between two finishers with questionable durability.
Timing 6 questions
Chance it ends in round 1
Gemini
21%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
25%.
Claude
23%.
Chance it is over by round 2
Gemini
41%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
51%.
Claude
42%.
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
45%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
33%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Chance of a finish in the final round
Gemini
Round 3: 13%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Round 3: 15%.
If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 83%, submission 17%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 90%, submission 10%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 72%, submission 28%.
Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 51%. If it goes longer: Santos 60%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 20%, Santos 21%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 52%. If it goes longer: Santos 57%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 25%, Santos 27%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Santos 53%. If it goes longer: Oki 53%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Oki 20%, Santos 23%.
What if 2 questions
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Oki 43%, Santos 57%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Oki 49%, Santos 52%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Oki 55%, Santos 46%.
What could make this fight one-sided?
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki could make this look one-sided with a quick first-round knockout if he catches Daniel Santos coming in recklessly. Alternatively, Santos could dominate from start to finish if he immediately grounds Oki and exhausts him.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos could take over if Oki cannot maintain distance or recover between exchanges. Oki could dominate instead if his size lets him consistently stop entries and control clinches.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard An early knockout either way could end it quickly, most likely if Oki's recent durability issues show again or Santos gets taken down and controlled.
What to watch 7 questions
What is the key matchup edge?
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos holds the most important edge with his superior cardio and well-rounded Muay Thai and grappling pressure, which directly targets Bolaji Oki's tendency to slow down after the first round.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos has the edge in sustaining pressure at close range, where Oki's reach matters less and defensive lapses become more costly.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's wrestling against Santos' more consistent striking volume and durability.
What is the biggest X-factor?
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is how Bolaji Oki handles the weight cut down from lightweight to featherweight, as it could either amplify his size and power advantage or severely compromise his already suspect stamina.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's first featherweight cut is the biggest variable: his larger frame could bring a physical advantage, but making weight alone does not establish how well he will recover.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's move up to featherweight and how his chin holds after consecutive stoppage losses.
What would change the model's mind?
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Bolaji Oki look depleted or sluggish on the scale during his cut to featherweight would tilt the outlook further toward Daniel Santos. Conversely, if Oki demonstrates improved takedown defense and pacing early on, his chances of winning a decision rise.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Oki retains his stamina and durability after the cut would move me toward him, especially if his size translates into reliable clinch control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a rough weight cut or injury, or a clear early finish tendency, would shift the pick.
What are the biggest unknowns?
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains uncertain how well Bolaji Oki's cardio and durability will hold up after cutting down from lightweight to featherweight, and whether he has closed the defensive grappling gaps that troubled him previously.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish how well Oki recovered from his first featherweight cut or obtain detailed, reliable information about either fighter's preparation for this matchup.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's condition at the new weight and his chin after recent stoppages; Santos' recovery from his last body-shot loss.
Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Bolaji Oki has the edge in early long-range striking due to his reach and punching power, though Daniel Santos can take over the striking late with volume. Santos clearly wins the grappling thanks to his superior takedowns and top control.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favour Santos in sustained striking exchanges, while Oki has the cleaner route at long range. Santos gets a tentative grappling edge through his more established wrestling output.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos should win the striking with steadier volume; Oki should win the grappling with better takedown success.
Who is better late in the fight?
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Daniel Santos is much better placed in the later rounds because he thrives on high-volume pressure and second-half output, whereas Bolaji Oki has historically faded and been stopped late under sustained pressure.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos is slightly better placed in rounds two and three through sustained pressure. Oki's recent stoppage losses and unfamiliar weight cut make his late-round resilience harder to trust.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Santos is slightly better placed later because of consistent output and fewer recent damage issues, while Oki's grappling can still steal rounds.
Biggest danger for Oki, and for Santos
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Daniel Santos, the biggest danger is absorbing clean, heavy counter punches in the opening round while pressuring recklessly. For Bolaji Oki, the biggest danger is having his cardio drained by relentless clinching, takedowns, and volume striking in the second and third rounds.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki's biggest danger is being drawn into prolonged exchanges after Santos gets inside his reach. Santos's biggest danger is absorbing a powerful straight counter from the larger man while advancing.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Oki: another early knockout loss if he trades with Santos. Santos: being taken down and controlled, or a body shot-style vulnerability resurfacing.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Santos by decision, 26% here against 18% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Santos by decision, 17% here against 23% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Oki by decision, 24% here against 18% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model picks Santos (55%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model picks Santos (54%).
Claude
Of 39 analyst picks, 12 back Oki and 27 back Santos. This model has it even — no pick.
Which model is most confident on Oki, and which on Santos?
Gemini
On Oki: Claude (49%). On Santos: Gemini (55%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Santos by decision: from 17% (ChatGPT) to 26% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Santos by KO/TKO in round 1), The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) (Santos), MMA.SOCIAL (Santos by KO/TKO), FIGHT//AI (Santos), MMA Intel (Santos), Fight Genie (Claude) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Fight Genie (GPT) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), The Lab Analytics (Santos), UFC Predict — Main + Market (Santos), FightIQ (Santos), 138 MMA (Santos), Bedtime MMA (Santos by KO/TKO), DFS By The Numbers (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Fite Feed (Santos by KO/TKO in round 1), HopperMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), JakeGerberMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Santos by KO/TKO), Livid Larry MMA (Santos by KO/TKO), James Blissett (Santos by KO/TKO), Tom Feely (Santos), Mate Bersenadze (Santos by KO/TKO), Tim Edwards (Santos), Andy Lang (Santos), Jeff Fox (Santos by KO/TKO), Sean Zerillo (Santos by KO/TKO), Michael Chiesa (Santos) and Mike Finch (Santos): the same winner as this model, tied; this model favours Santos, most likely by decision.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Fight Genie (Claude) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), Fight Genie (GPT) (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), DFS By The Numbers (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2), HopperMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2) and JakeGerberMMA (Santos by KO/TKO in round 2): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Santos, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 2).
How sure 5 questions
How good has this model been?
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Gemini
Gemini, which gave the actual result 26%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 23 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
50%
Bolaji Oki
50%
Daniel Santos
Market had it a coin-flip
Santos defeats Oki · Dec
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.