UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Round 1 · 3:54
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
The lightweights traded on the feet throughout, both landing good shots. Near the fence in the final minute of the round, Steele landed an overhand right to the side of Gugnon's head that dropped him to the canvas.
Steele is listed at 8-1 overall and 2-1 in the UFC, giving him more recorded Octagon experience than Gugnon. His 3.85 significant strikes per minute and 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes offer two measurable ways to build a three-round performance.
Gugnon’s 10-2 record gives him a strong overall mark, while his UFC profile lists one Octagon appearance. The matchup asks whether that broader record can carry into a deeper level of competition against a more experienced UFC opponent.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
FightIQ's model explicitly backs Kody Steele at 55% on its picks page.
“The model backs Kody Steele at 55%”
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Jimbo Ortega MMA picks Kody Steele by KO/TKO. Slight lean, very low confidence
“by KO round one or two. I think Goon's”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Sherdog prelims preview by Tom Feely names Steele as the pick, by first-round submission.
“The pick is Steele by first-round submission.”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · Sub
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Selects Kody Steele to win.
* The submission is a separately suggested small prop bet alongside his Steele winner pick.
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
AJ Devito picks Kody Steele.
“the Cody Steel pick for us both here as”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · Dec
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Selects Kody Steele to win.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
JakeGerberMMA picks Kody Steele by Submission in round 2.
“Give me Give me Cody Steel to find a sub”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Fite Feed picks Kody Steele by Submission in round 2.
“I'm going to go with Kody Steele by way of submission.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
DFS By The Numbers picks Kody Steele by KO/TKO in round 2.
“But in terms of picking a winner, I'm going to go with Kody Steele.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Kody Steele for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
138 MMA picks Kody Steele.
“to take him here. Let's go Cody Steel to”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · Sub
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Selects Kody Steele to win.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Livid Larry MMA picks Kody Steele. Lean; calls it a close one
“with Cody Steel to win this one. I think”
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Lucrative James explicitly selects Kody Steele by knockout as his official prediction.
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · Dec
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Fight Genie Claude explicitly selects f_efc2bf for Steele–Gugnon on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
The Oracle by Blueprint MMA selects Kody Steele at 56%; winner only.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Selects Kody Steele to win.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.8% (20 hit, 14 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Kody Steele by Submission in round 2. low confidence
“via second round submission.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · Sub
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Kunath picks Kody Steele by Submission. Ever so slightly leans Steele.
“Kody Steele by submission. And this is the”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
MMA Intel explicitly selects Kody Steele; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Kody Steele for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Kody Steele for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Jon Litterine explicitly selects Kody Steele; no method or round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Fight Genie GPT explicitly selects f_efc2bf for Steele–Gugnon on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Kody Steele
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI selects Kody Steele; the event forecast states a winner probability but no method or round.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Noah Gugnon for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Bedtime MMA picks Noah Gugnon. Method hedged: 'maybe decision'; also floats a body-shot TKO; picked as the underdog
“good. I'm going to go with Noah Guinyon”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon · KO/TKO
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
MMA Lock of the Night picks Noah Gugnon by KO/TKO.
“Noah Gun by knockout. Next up, a”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Noah Gugnon for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Next Fight explicitly selects Noah Gugnon; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 5 of 8 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (5 hit, 3 miss, across 8 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 8 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
HopperMMA picks Noah Gugnon by KO/TKO in round 1. low confidence
“Guggnon to win this one by TKO. Then”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon · KO/TKO
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Selects Noah Gugnon to win.
* Expects Gugnon to win by knockout while acknowledging Steele’s submission grappling and heel-hook threat.
Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Noah Gugnon for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon · Dec
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Noah Gugnon by decision; no round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Chris Schweppe picks Noah Gugnon by second-round knockout over Kody Steele.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Selects Noah Gugnon to win.
Track record: winner called in 18 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (18 hit, 17 miss, across 35 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 35 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
The Lab Analytics' explicit model pick selects Noah Gugnon (60.1% model probability; MED confidence, LEAN tier). The page publishes no method or round. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 observed page snapshot; no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).
Picked: Noah Gugnon
Fight result: Kody Steele · KO/TKO
Doc's Sports — Josh Schonwald explicitly selects Noah Gugnon; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
Analyst picks: UFC Predict — Logistic Core Miss; Bedtime MMA Miss; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Tom Feely Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; Michael Chiesa Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Fite Feed Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; UFC Predict — CatBoost Miss; UFC Predict — Main + Market Hit; 138 MMA Hit; Mate Bersenadze Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; Next Fight model Miss; HopperMMA Miss; James Blissett Hit; Fight Genie (Claude) Hit; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Hit; Tim Edwards Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Hit; Kunath Hit; Mike Finch Miss; MMA Intel Hit; UFC Predict — Ensemble Hit; UFC Predict — LightGBM Miss; UFC Predict — XGBoost Hit; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Genie (GPT) Hit; MMA.SOCIAL Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Andy Lang Miss; The Lab Analytics Miss; Josh Schonwald Miss; FIGHT//AI Hit.
25 of 38 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Steele · KO/TKO · R1
Closest probability ChatGPT put 60% on Steele.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Steele
Most likely: Steele by submission, about 25 in 100
Win chance: Steele 60%, Gugnon 39%, draw or no contest 1%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Steele
Most likely: Steele by decision, about 26 in 100
Win chance: Steele 58%, Gugnon 42%, draw or no contest 1%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Steele
Most likely: Steele by decision, about 21 in 100
Win chance: Steele 58%, Gugnon 41%, draw or no contest 2%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
3 of 3 models pick Steele.
ChatGPT
Steele: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 39%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Steele: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Steele: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Steele by submission: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Claude
Steele by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
Gemini
Steele by decision: 21% (about 21 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Steele by submission (25%); 2. Gugnon by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Steele by KO/TKO (20%)
Claude
1. Steele by decision (26%); 2. Steele by submission (17%); 3. Gugnon by submission (17%)
Gemini
1. Steele by decision (21%); 2. Steele by submission (19%); 3. Steele by KO/TKO (18%)
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Steele's 60% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Steele's 58% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Steele's 58% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 75%. Decision: 24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Steele wins 60%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 25%, decision 15%.
Claude
Steele wins 58%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 17%, decision 26%.
Gemini
Steele wins 58%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 19%, decision 21%.
ChatGPT
Gugnon wins 39%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 7%, decision 9%.
Claude
Gugnon wins 42%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 17%, decision 15%.
Gemini
Gugnon wins 41%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 13%, decision 13%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele has a modest edge through his grappling, but Gugnon can punish his defensive openings before he establishes control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close lightweight scrap between two grapplers, with Steele slightly ahead and a real chance of a submission from either side.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele is expected to wear Noah Gugnon down with relentless forward pressure, heavy close-range volume, and dangerous submission grappling to take a decision or find a finish.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (45% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 34%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 24%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (51% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 33%.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Steele 62% (from 60%), Gugnon 36% (from 39%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele gets more opportunities to connect his striking with grappling as the initial exchanges settle. Gugnon remains dangerous, but his ability to sustain effective offense deep into fights is less established.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Steele 59% (from 58%), Gugnon 40% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives the first round, it likely turns into a grind decided by positional control and cardio. Steele's size and steady pressure give him a modest edge.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Steele 59% (from 58%), Gugnon 39% (from 41%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If the fight gets past the opening round, Kody Steele's grinding pace and grappling pressure should increasingly sap Noah Gugnon's explosiveness and finishing threat.
ChatGPT
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by KO/TKO in round 1 (11%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Gugnon needs to deny sustained grappling and punish Steele's forward entries with hard strikes. Hurting him first could also create an opening to take his back.
Claude
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by decision (15%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Gugnon wins by catching a scramble early and finishing with a rear-naked choke, or by staying sharp on the feet and outworking Steele over three rounds.
Gemini
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by decision (13%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Noah Gugnon is most likely to win by keeping the fight at distance to outpoint Kody Steele on the feet or catching an aggressive entry with a fast first-round finish.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele should use strikes to enter clinches, force scrambles and attack submissions. Gugnon should maintain striking distance, punish predictable entries and follow damage with controlled finishing attacks.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele: use his strength to win grappling exchanges, threaten leg locks, and take a decision or submission. Gugnon: capitalise on scrambles and take the back for a choke, as he has in the UFC.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele's best path is pressuring Noah Gugnon against the fence, dragging him into mat scrambles, and hunting submissions or ground control. Noah Gugnon's best path is using movement and distance management to keep the fight at kicking range while countering Steele's aggressive entries.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Steele can turn his first clinch or takedown attempt into sustained grappling, and whether Gugnon lands cleanly as Steele closes distance.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who dictates where the fight happens, and who wins the first scramble. Early leg-lock attempts and back-take chances will show the direction.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Noah Gugnon can use footwork and counters to halt Kody Steele's forward march, and how easily Steele can force clinches and mat scrambles.
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Steele.
ChatGPT
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by submission (25%).
Claude
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by decision (26%).
Gemini
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by decision (21%).
ChatGPT
6% (about 6 in 100).
Claude
6% (about 6 in 100).
Gemini
8% (about 8 in 100).
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 43%, submission 32%, decision 24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 25%, submission 33%, decision 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 33%, submission 32%, decision 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Claude
1%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
Steele: 45%, against 30% for Gugnon.
Claude
Steele: 32%, against 27% for Gugnon.
Gemini
Steele: 37%, against 28% for Gugnon.
ChatGPT
Steele: 45% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 25%). Gugnon: 30% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 7%).
Claude
Steele: 32% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 17%). Gugnon: 27% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 17%).
Gemini
Steele: 37% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 19%). Gugnon: 28% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 13%).
ChatGPT
Steele is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 7%. Gugnon is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 25%.
Claude
Steele is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 17%. Gugnon is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 17%.
Gemini
Steele is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 13%. Gugnon is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 19%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 60% vs 39%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 58% vs 41%.
ChatGPT
Steele by decision: 15%. Gugnon by KO/TKO in round 1: 11%.
Claude
Steele by decision: 26%. Gugnon by decision: 15%.
Gemini
Steele by decision: 21%. Gugnon by decision: 13%.
ChatGPT
Gugnon wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Gugnon wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Gugnon wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 10th closest, and the 2nd most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 9th closest, and the 3rd most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, both offer dangerous finishing threats, and the struggle to control where exchanges happen should make this compelling.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Worth a look on the prelims: both are young finishers with submission skill, so the fight should be active and may end early.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This is a fun preliminary action fight worth watching to see Kody Steele's relentless pace and elite submission hunting tested against Noah Gugnon's dangerous early opportunism.
ChatGPT
34%.
Claude
24%.
Gemini
33%.
ChatGPT
61%.
Claude
45%.
Gemini
54%.
ChatGPT
24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 14%.
Claude
Round 3: 14%.
Gemini
Round 3: 11%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 42%, submission 58%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 50%, submission 51%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 59%. If it goes longer: Steele 63%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 36%, Gugnon 25%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 54%. If it goes longer: Steele 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 24%, Gugnon 20%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 56%. If it goes longer: Steele 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 30%, Gugnon 24%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Steele 63%, Gugnon 38%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Steele 64%, Gugnon 36%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Steele 62%, Gugnon 38%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele could dominate if he repeatedly forces grappling exchanges without absorbing damage on entry. If those entries fail, Gugnon could instead take over with cleaner, heavier strikes.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It could turn one-sided if either fighter gets the back or traps a leg early. I see that as slightly more likely for Steele, whose control has been more consistent.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight could become one-sided for Kody Steele if he secures early takedowns and dominates the mat positional battles without allowing Noah Gugnon space to reset on the feet.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele holds the more established technical grappling edge. Whether he can reliably bring that advantage into play is the central matchup question.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The scramble and submission game is the biggest edge, and I give it slightly to Steele because of his leg-lock threat. Gugnon's back-taking is a close match.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele holds the most important edge with his high-level submission grappling, which gives him a clear technical advantage whenever the fight hits the canvas.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's willingness and ability to initiate grappling is the biggest variable; his specialist background does not automatically translate into reliable takedowns.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's leg-lock game against Gugnon's scramble defence and back-taking is the biggest wild card, since either can end the fight suddenly.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Noah Gugnon's composure and scrambling defense when forced onto his back against Kody Steele's leg lock and choke chains will be the biggest X-factor.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Credible evidence that Steele's movement remains limited by injury, or that Gugnon has substantially improved his defensive wrestling, would shift my forecast toward Gugnon.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence of an injury or a weight-cut problem, or a clear size and speed edge on the scale or in the first minutes, would shift the forecast.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a compromised weight cut or nagging injury affecting Kody Steele's cardio and grappling explosiveness would shift the outlook significantly toward Noah Gugnon.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's full preparation timeline or independently confirm their final weigh-in condition.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not verify recent camp details or full UFC-level striking numbers for either fighter, and the sources conflicted on some record details.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how much Noah Gugnon has improved his takedown defense and submission awareness against elite grapplers, as well as how both fighters will adjust to UFC-level pacing.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Gugnon in damaging striking exchanges because Steele leaves openings when advancing. Steele has the grappling edge through his deeper specialist experience.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Striking looks about even, with perhaps a small edge to Gugnon for length. Grappling goes to Steele for his heel-hook threat and control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The striking should be closely contested with Kody Steele edging close-range volume, while Steele clearly wins the grappling thanks to his elite submission credentials and mat control.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele has a slight late-round edge through broader experience beyond the opening rounds and more ways to manage exchanges. That is not firm evidence of superior conditioning.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele is slightly better placed late because of his strength and steady pace. Both have finished early, so late-round data is thin.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele is better placed in the later rounds because his relentless forward pressure, superior grappling conditioning, and top control are built to wear opponents down.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's biggest danger is absorbing hard counters while advancing without securing grappling contact. Gugnon's biggest danger is committing to an attacking scramble that exposes him to Steele's submissions.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele: getting caught in a scramble and giving up the back to Gugnon's choke. Gugnon: being dragged into leg-lock exchanges where one mistake can end the fight.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele's biggest danger is walking recklessly into a clean counter strike or opportunistic submission while forcing close-range exchanges early. Noah Gugnon's biggest danger is getting trapped on the canvas against an elite submission grappler who relentlessly chains chokes and leg locks.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Steele by decision, 15% here against 24% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Steele by decision, 26% here against 18% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1, 8% here against 6% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 25 back Steele and 13 back Gugnon. This model picks Steele (60%).
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 25 back Steele and 13 back Gugnon. This model picks Steele (58%).
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 25 back Steele and 13 back Gugnon. This model picks Steele (58%).
All models
On Steele: ChatGPT (60%). On Gugnon: Claude (42%).
All models
Steele by decision: from 15% (ChatGPT) to 26% (Claude).
ChatGPT
Tom Feely (Steele by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Steele, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).
Claude
Fight Genie (Claude) (Steele by decision) and The MMA Guru (Steele by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Steele, most likely by decision.
Gemini
Fight Genie (Claude) (Steele by decision) and The MMA Guru (Steele by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Steele, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
All models
Gemini, which gave the actual result 8%.
ChatGPT
Yes.
Claude
No.
Gemini
Yes.
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Steele by submission, about 25 in 100
Win chance: Steele 60%, Gugnon 39%, draw or no contest 1%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's specialist grappling and recent heel-hook win make submission his clearest route if he forces sustained exchanges on the mat.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I see Gugnon's power as the main threat to Steele's open defensive entries; six knockout wins support that concern.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele can also finish with strikes, especially if grappling threats disrupt Gugnon's defense; four career knockout wins support this route.
Draw or no contest: 1%
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steele KO/TKO | 6% | 9% | 5% | — |
| Steele Submission | 13% | 8% | 4% | — |
| Steele Decision | — | — | — | 15% |
| Gugnon KO/TKO | 11% | 8% | 4% | — |
| Gugnon Submission | 4% | 2% | 1% | — |
| Gugnon Decision | — | — | — | 9% |
| Draw or no contest | 1% | |||
ChatGPT
Steele: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 39%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Steele: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Steele: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Steele by submission: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Claude
Steele by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
Gemini
Steele by decision: 21% (about 21 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Steele by submission (25%); 2. Gugnon by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Steele by KO/TKO (20%)
Claude
1. Steele by decision (26%); 2. Steele by submission (17%); 3. Gugnon by submission (17%)
Gemini
1. Steele by decision (21%); 2. Steele by submission (19%); 3. Steele by KO/TKO (18%)
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Steele's 60% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Steele's 58% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Steele's 58% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 75%. Decision: 24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Steele wins 60%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 25%, decision 15%.
Claude
Steele wins 58%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 17%, decision 26%.
Gemini
Steele wins 58%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 19%, decision 21%.
ChatGPT
Gugnon wins 39%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 7%, decision 9%.
Claude
Gugnon wins 42%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 17%, decision 15%.
Gemini
Gugnon wins 41%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 13%, decision 13%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele has a modest edge through his grappling, but Gugnon can punish his defensive openings before he establishes control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close lightweight scrap between two grapplers, with Steele slightly ahead and a real chance of a submission from either side.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele is expected to wear Noah Gugnon down with relentless forward pressure, heavy close-range volume, and dangerous submission grappling to take a decision or find a finish.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (45% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 34%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 24%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (51% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 33%.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Steele 62% (from 60%), Gugnon 36% (from 39%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele gets more opportunities to connect his striking with grappling as the initial exchanges settle. Gugnon remains dangerous, but his ability to sustain effective offense deep into fights is less established.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Steele 59% (from 58%), Gugnon 40% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives the first round, it likely turns into a grind decided by positional control and cardio. Steele's size and steady pressure give him a modest edge.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Steele 59% (from 58%), Gugnon 39% (from 41%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If the fight gets past the opening round, Kody Steele's grinding pace and grappling pressure should increasingly sap Noah Gugnon's explosiveness and finishing threat.
ChatGPT
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by KO/TKO in round 1 (11%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Gugnon needs to deny sustained grappling and punish Steele's forward entries with hard strikes. Hurting him first could also create an opening to take his back.
Claude
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by decision (15%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Gugnon wins by catching a scramble early and finishing with a rear-naked choke, or by staying sharp on the feet and outworking Steele over three rounds.
Gemini
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by decision (13%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Noah Gugnon is most likely to win by keeping the fight at distance to outpoint Kody Steele on the feet or catching an aggressive entry with a fast first-round finish.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele should use strikes to enter clinches, force scrambles and attack submissions. Gugnon should maintain striking distance, punish predictable entries and follow damage with controlled finishing attacks.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele: use his strength to win grappling exchanges, threaten leg locks, and take a decision or submission. Gugnon: capitalise on scrambles and take the back for a choke, as he has in the UFC.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele's best path is pressuring Noah Gugnon against the fence, dragging him into mat scrambles, and hunting submissions or ground control. Noah Gugnon's best path is using movement and distance management to keep the fight at kicking range while countering Steele's aggressive entries.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Steele can turn his first clinch or takedown attempt into sustained grappling, and whether Gugnon lands cleanly as Steele closes distance.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who dictates where the fight happens, and who wins the first scramble. Early leg-lock attempts and back-take chances will show the direction.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Noah Gugnon can use footwork and counters to halt Kody Steele's forward march, and how easily Steele can force clinches and mat scrambles.
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Steele.
ChatGPT
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by submission (25%).
Claude
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by decision (26%).
Gemini
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by decision (21%).
ChatGPT
6% (about 6 in 100).
Gemini
8% (about 8 in 100).
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 43%, submission 32%, decision 24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 25%, submission 33%, decision 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 33%, submission 32%, decision 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
Steele: 45%, against 30% for Gugnon.
Claude
Steele: 32%, against 27% for Gugnon.
Gemini
Steele: 37%, against 28% for Gugnon.
ChatGPT
Steele: 45% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 25%). Gugnon: 30% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 7%).
Claude
Steele: 32% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 17%). Gugnon: 27% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 17%).
Gemini
Steele: 37% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 19%). Gugnon: 28% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 13%).
ChatGPT
Steele is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 7%. Gugnon is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 25%.
Claude
Steele is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 17%. Gugnon is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 17%.
Gemini
Steele is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 13%. Gugnon is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 19%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 60% vs 39%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 58% vs 41%.
ChatGPT
Steele by decision: 15%. Gugnon by KO/TKO in round 1: 11%.
Claude
Steele by decision: 26%. Gugnon by decision: 15%.
Gemini
Steele by decision: 21%. Gugnon by decision: 13%.
ChatGPT
Gugnon wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Gugnon wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Gugnon wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 10th closest, and the 2nd most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 9th closest, and the 3rd most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, both offer dangerous finishing threats, and the struggle to control where exchanges happen should make this compelling.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Worth a look on the prelims: both are young finishers with submission skill, so the fight should be active and may end early.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This is a fun preliminary action fight worth watching to see Kody Steele's relentless pace and elite submission hunting tested against Noah Gugnon's dangerous early opportunism.
ChatGPT
34%.
Claude
24%.
Gemini
33%.
ChatGPT
61%.
Claude
45%.
Gemini
54%.
ChatGPT
24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 14%.
Gemini
Round 3: 11%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 42%, submission 58%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 50%, submission 51%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 59%. If it goes longer: Steele 63%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 36%, Gugnon 25%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 54%. If it goes longer: Steele 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 24%, Gugnon 20%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 56%. If it goes longer: Steele 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 30%, Gugnon 24%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Steele 63%, Gugnon 38%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Steele 64%, Gugnon 36%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Steele 62%, Gugnon 38%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele could dominate if he repeatedly forces grappling exchanges without absorbing damage on entry. If those entries fail, Gugnon could instead take over with cleaner, heavier strikes.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It could turn one-sided if either fighter gets the back or traps a leg early. I see that as slightly more likely for Steele, whose control has been more consistent.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight could become one-sided for Kody Steele if he secures early takedowns and dominates the mat positional battles without allowing Noah Gugnon space to reset on the feet.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele holds the more established technical grappling edge. Whether he can reliably bring that advantage into play is the central matchup question.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The scramble and submission game is the biggest edge, and I give it slightly to Steele because of his leg-lock threat. Gugnon's back-taking is a close match.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele holds the most important edge with his high-level submission grappling, which gives him a clear technical advantage whenever the fight hits the canvas.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's willingness and ability to initiate grappling is the biggest variable; his specialist background does not automatically translate into reliable takedowns.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's leg-lock game against Gugnon's scramble defence and back-taking is the biggest wild card, since either can end the fight suddenly.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Noah Gugnon's composure and scrambling defense when forced onto his back against Kody Steele's leg lock and choke chains will be the biggest X-factor.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Credible evidence that Steele's movement remains limited by injury, or that Gugnon has substantially improved his defensive wrestling, would shift my forecast toward Gugnon.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence of an injury or a weight-cut problem, or a clear size and speed edge on the scale or in the first minutes, would shift the forecast.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a compromised weight cut or nagging injury affecting Kody Steele's cardio and grappling explosiveness would shift the outlook significantly toward Noah Gugnon.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's full preparation timeline or independently confirm their final weigh-in condition.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not verify recent camp details or full UFC-level striking numbers for either fighter, and the sources conflicted on some record details.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how much Noah Gugnon has improved his takedown defense and submission awareness against elite grapplers, as well as how both fighters will adjust to UFC-level pacing.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Gugnon in damaging striking exchanges because Steele leaves openings when advancing. Steele has the grappling edge through his deeper specialist experience.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Striking looks about even, with perhaps a small edge to Gugnon for length. Grappling goes to Steele for his heel-hook threat and control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The striking should be closely contested with Kody Steele edging close-range volume, while Steele clearly wins the grappling thanks to his elite submission credentials and mat control.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele has a slight late-round edge through broader experience beyond the opening rounds and more ways to manage exchanges. That is not firm evidence of superior conditioning.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele is slightly better placed late because of his strength and steady pace. Both have finished early, so late-round data is thin.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele is better placed in the later rounds because his relentless forward pressure, superior grappling conditioning, and top control are built to wear opponents down.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's biggest danger is absorbing hard counters while advancing without securing grappling contact. Gugnon's biggest danger is committing to an attacking scramble that exposes him to Steele's submissions.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele: getting caught in a scramble and giving up the back to Gugnon's choke. Gugnon: being dragged into leg-lock exchanges where one mistake can end the fight.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele's biggest danger is walking recklessly into a clean counter strike or opportunistic submission while forcing close-range exchanges early. Noah Gugnon's biggest danger is getting trapped on the canvas against an elite submission grappler who relentlessly chains chokes and leg locks.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Steele by decision, 15% here against 24% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Steele by decision, 26% here against 18% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1, 8% here against 6% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 25 back Steele and 13 back Gugnon. This model picks Steele (60%).
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 25 back Steele and 13 back Gugnon. This model picks Steele (58%).
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 25 back Steele and 13 back Gugnon. This model picks Steele (58%).
ChatGPT
On Steele: ChatGPT (60%). On Gugnon: Claude (42%).
ChatGPT
Steele by decision: from 15% (ChatGPT) to 26% (Claude).
ChatGPT
Tom Feely (Steele by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Steele, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).
Claude
Fight Genie (Claude) (Steele by decision) and The MMA Guru (Steele by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Steele, most likely by decision.
Gemini
Fight Genie (Claude) (Steele by decision) and The MMA Guru (Steele by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Steele, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
ChatGPT
Gemini, which gave the actual result 8%.
ChatGPT
Yes.
Claude
No.
gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Steele by decision, about 26 in 100
Win chance: Steele 58%, Gugnon 42%, draw or no contest 1%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evenly matched grapplers who may cancel each other out; Steele's size and control give him a slight edge on the scorecards.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's heel hook and control game give him a real chance to finish.
No reason given
Draw or no contest: 1%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steele KO/TKO | 6% | 6% | 4% | — |
| Steele Submission | 7% | 6% | 4% | — |
| Steele Decision | — | — | — | 26% |
| Gugnon KO/TKO | 4% | 4% | 3% | — |
| Gugnon Submission | 7% | 6% | 4% | — |
| Gugnon Decision | — | — | — | 15% |
| Draw or no contest | 1% | |||
Claude
Steele: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
Steele: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 39%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Steele: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Steele by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
ChatGPT
Steele by submission: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Gemini
Steele by decision: 21% (about 21 in 100).
Claude
1. Steele by decision (26%); 2. Steele by submission (17%); 3. Gugnon by submission (17%)
ChatGPT
1. Steele by submission (25%); 2. Gugnon by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Steele by KO/TKO (20%)
Gemini
1. Steele by decision (21%); 2. Steele by submission (19%); 3. Steele by KO/TKO (18%)
Claude
6 of 10, based on Steele's 58% win chance.
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Steele's 60% win chance.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 75%. Decision: 24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Steele wins 58%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 17%, decision 26%.
ChatGPT
Steele wins 60%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 25%, decision 15%.
Gemini
Steele wins 58%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 19%, decision 21%.
Claude
Gugnon wins 42%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 17%, decision 15%.
ChatGPT
Gugnon wins 39%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 7%, decision 9%.
Gemini
Gugnon wins 41%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 13%, decision 13%.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close lightweight scrap between two grapplers, with Steele slightly ahead and a real chance of a submission from either side.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele has a modest edge through his grappling, but Gugnon can punish his defensive openings before he establishes control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele is expected to wear Noah Gugnon down with relentless forward pressure, heavy close-range volume, and dangerous submission grappling to take a decision or find a finish.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 24%.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (45% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 34%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (51% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 33%.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Steele 59% (from 58%), Gugnon 40% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives the first round, it likely turns into a grind decided by positional control and cardio. Steele's size and steady pressure give him a modest edge.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Steele 62% (from 60%), Gugnon 36% (from 39%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele gets more opportunities to connect his striking with grappling as the initial exchanges settle. Gugnon remains dangerous, but his ability to sustain effective offense deep into fights is less established.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Steele 59% (from 58%), Gugnon 39% (from 41%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If the fight gets past the opening round, Kody Steele's grinding pace and grappling pressure should increasingly sap Noah Gugnon's explosiveness and finishing threat.
Claude
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by decision (15%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Gugnon wins by catching a scramble early and finishing with a rear-naked choke, or by staying sharp on the feet and outworking Steele over three rounds.
ChatGPT
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by KO/TKO in round 1 (11%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Gugnon needs to deny sustained grappling and punish Steele's forward entries with hard strikes. Hurting him first could also create an opening to take his back.
Gemini
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by decision (13%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Noah Gugnon is most likely to win by keeping the fight at distance to outpoint Kody Steele on the feet or catching an aggressive entry with a fast first-round finish.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele: use his strength to win grappling exchanges, threaten leg locks, and take a decision or submission. Gugnon: capitalise on scrambles and take the back for a choke, as he has in the UFC.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele should use strikes to enter clinches, force scrambles and attack submissions. Gugnon should maintain striking distance, punish predictable entries and follow damage with controlled finishing attacks.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele's best path is pressuring Noah Gugnon against the fence, dragging him into mat scrambles, and hunting submissions or ground control. Noah Gugnon's best path is using movement and distance management to keep the fight at kicking range while countering Steele's aggressive entries.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who dictates where the fight happens, and who wins the first scramble. Early leg-lock attempts and back-take chances will show the direction.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Steele can turn his first clinch or takedown attempt into sustained grappling, and whether Gugnon lands cleanly as Steele closes distance.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Noah Gugnon can use footwork and counters to halt Kody Steele's forward march, and how easily Steele can force clinches and mat scrambles.
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Steele.
Claude
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by decision (26%).
ChatGPT
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by submission (25%).
Gemini
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by decision (21%).
Claude
6% (about 6 in 100).
Gemini
8% (about 8 in 100).
Claude
KO/TKO 25%, submission 33%, decision 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 43%, submission 32%, decision 24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 33%, submission 32%, decision 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
1%.
Gemini
2%.
Claude
Steele: 32%, against 27% for Gugnon.
ChatGPT
Steele: 45%, against 30% for Gugnon.
Gemini
Steele: 37%, against 28% for Gugnon.
Claude
Steele: 32% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 17%). Gugnon: 27% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 17%).
ChatGPT
Steele: 45% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 25%). Gugnon: 30% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 7%).
Gemini
Steele: 37% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 19%). Gugnon: 28% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 13%).
Claude
Steele is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 17%. Gugnon is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 17%.
ChatGPT
Steele is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 7%. Gugnon is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 25%.
Gemini
Steele is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 13%. Gugnon is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 19%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 60% vs 39%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 58% vs 41%.
Claude
Steele by decision: 26%. Gugnon by decision: 15%.
ChatGPT
Steele by decision: 15%. Gugnon by KO/TKO in round 1: 11%.
Gemini
Steele by decision: 21%. Gugnon by decision: 13%.
Claude
Gugnon wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Gugnon wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Gugnon wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 10th closest, and the 2nd most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 9th closest, and the 3rd most likely to end early.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Worth a look on the prelims: both are young finishers with submission skill, so the fight should be active and may end early.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, both offer dangerous finishing threats, and the struggle to control where exchanges happen should make this compelling.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This is a fun preliminary action fight worth watching to see Kody Steele's relentless pace and elite submission hunting tested against Noah Gugnon's dangerous early opportunism.
Claude
24%.
ChatGPT
34%.
Gemini
33%.
Claude
45%.
ChatGPT
61%.
Gemini
54%.
Claude
41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
ChatGPT
24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Round 3: 14%.
Gemini
Round 3: 11%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 42%, submission 58%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 50%, submission 51%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 54%. If it goes longer: Steele 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 24%, Gugnon 20%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 59%. If it goes longer: Steele 63%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 36%, Gugnon 25%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 56%. If it goes longer: Steele 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 30%, Gugnon 24%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Steele 64%, Gugnon 36%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Steele 63%, Gugnon 38%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Steele 62%, Gugnon 38%.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It could turn one-sided if either fighter gets the back or traps a leg early. I see that as slightly more likely for Steele, whose control has been more consistent.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele could dominate if he repeatedly forces grappling exchanges without absorbing damage on entry. If those entries fail, Gugnon could instead take over with cleaner, heavier strikes.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight could become one-sided for Kody Steele if he secures early takedowns and dominates the mat positional battles without allowing Noah Gugnon space to reset on the feet.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The scramble and submission game is the biggest edge, and I give it slightly to Steele because of his leg-lock threat. Gugnon's back-taking is a close match.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele holds the more established technical grappling edge. Whether he can reliably bring that advantage into play is the central matchup question.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele holds the most important edge with his high-level submission grappling, which gives him a clear technical advantage whenever the fight hits the canvas.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's leg-lock game against Gugnon's scramble defence and back-taking is the biggest wild card, since either can end the fight suddenly.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's willingness and ability to initiate grappling is the biggest variable; his specialist background does not automatically translate into reliable takedowns.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Noah Gugnon's composure and scrambling defense when forced onto his back against Kody Steele's leg lock and choke chains will be the biggest X-factor.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence of an injury or a weight-cut problem, or a clear size and speed edge on the scale or in the first minutes, would shift the forecast.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Credible evidence that Steele's movement remains limited by injury, or that Gugnon has substantially improved his defensive wrestling, would shift my forecast toward Gugnon.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a compromised weight cut or nagging injury affecting Kody Steele's cardio and grappling explosiveness would shift the outlook significantly toward Noah Gugnon.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not verify recent camp details or full UFC-level striking numbers for either fighter, and the sources conflicted on some record details.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's full preparation timeline or independently confirm their final weigh-in condition.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how much Noah Gugnon has improved his takedown defense and submission awareness against elite grapplers, as well as how both fighters will adjust to UFC-level pacing.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Striking looks about even, with perhaps a small edge to Gugnon for length. Grappling goes to Steele for his heel-hook threat and control.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Gugnon in damaging striking exchanges because Steele leaves openings when advancing. Steele has the grappling edge through his deeper specialist experience.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The striking should be closely contested with Kody Steele edging close-range volume, while Steele clearly wins the grappling thanks to his elite submission credentials and mat control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele is slightly better placed late because of his strength and steady pace. Both have finished early, so late-round data is thin.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele has a slight late-round edge through broader experience beyond the opening rounds and more ways to manage exchanges. That is not firm evidence of superior conditioning.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele is better placed in the later rounds because his relentless forward pressure, superior grappling conditioning, and top control are built to wear opponents down.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele: getting caught in a scramble and giving up the back to Gugnon's choke. Gugnon: being dragged into leg-lock exchanges where one mistake can end the fight.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's biggest danger is absorbing hard counters while advancing without securing grappling contact. Gugnon's biggest danger is committing to an attacking scramble that exposes him to Steele's submissions.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele's biggest danger is walking recklessly into a clean counter strike or opportunistic submission while forcing close-range exchanges early. Noah Gugnon's biggest danger is getting trapped on the canvas against an elite submission grappler who relentlessly chains chokes and leg locks.
Claude
Biggest difference: Steele by decision, 26% here against 18% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Steele by decision, 15% here against 24% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1, 8% here against 6% on average for the others.
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 25 back Steele and 13 back Gugnon. This model picks Steele (58%).
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 25 back Steele and 13 back Gugnon. This model picks Steele (60%).
Claude
On Steele: ChatGPT (60%). On Gugnon: Claude (42%).
Claude
Steele by decision: from 15% (ChatGPT) to 26% (Claude).
Claude
Fight Genie (Claude) (Steele by decision) and The MMA Guru (Steele by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Steele, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
Tom Feely (Steele by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Steele, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Claude
Gemini, which gave the actual result 8%.
Claude
No.
ChatGPT
Yes.
Gemini
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Steele by decision, about 21 in 100
Win chance: Steele 58%, Gugnon 41%, draw or no contest 2%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele pushes a relentless forward pace backed by strong durability and grappling control that can wear Gugnon down over three rounds.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard An accomplished submission grappler, Steele threatens with dangerous leg locks and chokes whenever scrambles hit the mat.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele throws heavy volume in close-range exchanges and can overwhelm Gugnon with strikes against the cage or on the ground.
Draw or no contest: 2%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steele KO/TKO | 8% | 6% | 4% | — |
| Steele Submission | 10% | 6% | 3% | — |
| Steele Decision | — | — | — | 21% |
| Gugnon KO/TKO | 8% | 5% | 3% | — |
| Gugnon Submission | 7% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Gugnon Decision | — | — | — | 13% |
| Draw or no contest | 2% | |||
Gemini
Steele: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Steele: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 39%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Steele: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Gugnon: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Steele by decision: 21% (about 21 in 100).
ChatGPT
Steele by submission: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Claude
Steele by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
Gemini
1. Steele by decision (21%); 2. Steele by submission (19%); 3. Steele by KO/TKO (18%)
ChatGPT
1. Steele by submission (25%); 2. Gugnon by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Steele by KO/TKO (20%)
Claude
1. Steele by decision (26%); 2. Steele by submission (17%); 3. Gugnon by submission (17%)
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Steele's 58% win chance.
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Steele's 60% win chance.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 65%. Decision: 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 75%. Decision: 24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Steele wins 58%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 19%, decision 21%.
ChatGPT
Steele wins 60%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 25%, decision 15%.
Claude
Steele wins 58%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 17%, decision 26%.
Gemini
Gugnon wins 41%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 13%, decision 13%.
ChatGPT
Gugnon wins 39%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 7%, decision 9%.
Claude
Gugnon wins 42%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 17%, decision 15%.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele is expected to wear Noah Gugnon down with relentless forward pressure, heavy close-range volume, and dangerous submission grappling to take a decision or find a finish.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele has a modest edge through his grappling, but Gugnon can punish his defensive openings before he establishes control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A close lightweight scrap between two grapplers, with Steele slightly ahead and a real chance of a submission from either side.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (51% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 33%.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (45% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 34%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 24%.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Steele 59% (from 58%), Gugnon 39% (from 41%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If the fight gets past the opening round, Kody Steele's grinding pace and grappling pressure should increasingly sap Noah Gugnon's explosiveness and finishing threat.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Steele 62% (from 60%), Gugnon 36% (from 39%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele gets more opportunities to connect his striking with grappling as the initial exchanges settle. Gugnon remains dangerous, but his ability to sustain effective offense deep into fights is less established.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Steele 59% (from 58%), Gugnon 40% (from 42%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives the first round, it likely turns into a grind decided by positional control and cardio. Steele's size and steady pressure give him a modest edge.
Gemini
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by decision (13%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Noah Gugnon is most likely to win by keeping the fight at distance to outpoint Kody Steele on the feet or catching an aggressive entry with a fast first-round finish.
ChatGPT
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by KO/TKO in round 1 (11%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Gugnon needs to deny sustained grappling and punish Steele's forward entries with hard strikes. Hurting him first could also create an opening to take his back.
Claude
Gugnon's most likely upset: Gugnon by decision (15%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Gugnon wins by catching a scramble early and finishing with a rear-naked choke, or by staying sharp on the feet and outworking Steele over three rounds.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele's best path is pressuring Noah Gugnon against the fence, dragging him into mat scrambles, and hunting submissions or ground control. Noah Gugnon's best path is using movement and distance management to keep the fight at kicking range while countering Steele's aggressive entries.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele should use strikes to enter clinches, force scrambles and attack submissions. Gugnon should maintain striking distance, punish predictable entries and follow damage with controlled finishing attacks.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele: use his strength to win grappling exchanges, threaten leg locks, and take a decision or submission. Gugnon: capitalise on scrambles and take the back for a choke, as he has in the UFC.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Noah Gugnon can use footwork and counters to halt Kody Steele's forward march, and how easily Steele can force clinches and mat scrambles.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Steele can turn his first clinch or takedown attempt into sustained grappling, and whether Gugnon lands cleanly as Steele closes distance.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch who dictates where the fight happens, and who wins the first scramble. Early leg-lock attempts and back-take chances will show the direction.
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Steele.
Gemini
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by decision (21%).
ChatGPT
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by submission (25%).
Claude
Result: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1. Steele by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Steele by decision (26%).
Gemini
8% (about 8 in 100).
ChatGPT
6% (about 6 in 100).
Claude
6% (about 6 in 100).
Gemini
KO/TKO 33%, submission 32%, decision 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 43%, submission 32%, decision 24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 25%, submission 33%, decision 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Claude
1%.
Gemini
Steele: 37%, against 28% for Gugnon.
ChatGPT
Steele: 45%, against 30% for Gugnon.
Claude
Steele: 32%, against 27% for Gugnon.
Gemini
Steele: 37% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 19%). Gugnon: 28% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 13%).
ChatGPT
Steele: 45% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 25%). Gugnon: 30% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 7%).
Claude
Steele: 32% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 17%). Gugnon: 27% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 17%).
Gemini
Steele is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 13%. Gugnon is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 19%.
ChatGPT
Steele is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 7%. Gugnon is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 25%.
Claude
Steele is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 17%. Gugnon is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 17%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 58% vs 41%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 60% vs 39%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Gemini
Steele by decision: 21%. Gugnon by decision: 13%.
ChatGPT
Steele by decision: 15%. Gugnon by KO/TKO in round 1: 11%.
Claude
Steele by decision: 26%. Gugnon by decision: 15%.
Gemini
Gugnon wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Gugnon wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Gugnon wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 9th closest, and the 3rd most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 10th closest, and the 2nd most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 6th most likely to end early.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This is a fun preliminary action fight worth watching to see Kody Steele's relentless pace and elite submission hunting tested against Noah Gugnon's dangerous early opportunism.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, both offer dangerous finishing threats, and the struggle to control where exchanges happen should make this compelling.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Worth a look on the prelims: both are young finishers with submission skill, so the fight should be active and may end early.
Gemini
33%.
ChatGPT
34%.
Claude
24%.
Gemini
54%.
ChatGPT
61%.
Claude
45%.
Gemini
34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
24%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Round 3: 11%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 14%.
Claude
Round 3: 14%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 50%, submission 51%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 42%, submission 58%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 56%. If it goes longer: Steele 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 30%, Gugnon 24%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 59%. If it goes longer: Steele 63%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 36%, Gugnon 25%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Steele 54%. If it goes longer: Steele 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Steele 24%, Gugnon 20%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Steele 62%, Gugnon 38%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Steele 63%, Gugnon 38%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Steele 64%, Gugnon 36%.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight could become one-sided for Kody Steele if he secures early takedowns and dominates the mat positional battles without allowing Noah Gugnon space to reset on the feet.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele could dominate if he repeatedly forces grappling exchanges without absorbing damage on entry. If those entries fail, Gugnon could instead take over with cleaner, heavier strikes.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It could turn one-sided if either fighter gets the back or traps a leg early. I see that as slightly more likely for Steele, whose control has been more consistent.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele holds the most important edge with his high-level submission grappling, which gives him a clear technical advantage whenever the fight hits the canvas.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele holds the more established technical grappling edge. Whether he can reliably bring that advantage into play is the central matchup question.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The scramble and submission game is the biggest edge, and I give it slightly to Steele because of his leg-lock threat. Gugnon's back-taking is a close match.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Noah Gugnon's composure and scrambling defense when forced onto his back against Kody Steele's leg lock and choke chains will be the biggest X-factor.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's willingness and ability to initiate grappling is the biggest variable; his specialist background does not automatically translate into reliable takedowns.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's leg-lock game against Gugnon's scramble defence and back-taking is the biggest wild card, since either can end the fight suddenly.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a compromised weight cut or nagging injury affecting Kody Steele's cardio and grappling explosiveness would shift the outlook significantly toward Noah Gugnon.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Credible evidence that Steele's movement remains limited by injury, or that Gugnon has substantially improved his defensive wrestling, would shift my forecast toward Gugnon.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Evidence of an injury or a weight-cut problem, or a clear size and speed edge on the scale or in the first minutes, would shift the forecast.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how much Noah Gugnon has improved his takedown defense and submission awareness against elite grapplers, as well as how both fighters will adjust to UFC-level pacing.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's full preparation timeline or independently confirm their final weigh-in condition.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not verify recent camp details or full UFC-level striking numbers for either fighter, and the sources conflicted on some record details.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The striking should be closely contested with Kody Steele edging close-range volume, while Steele clearly wins the grappling thanks to his elite submission credentials and mat control.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Gugnon in damaging striking exchanges because Steele leaves openings when advancing. Steele has the grappling edge through his deeper specialist experience.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Striking looks about even, with perhaps a small edge to Gugnon for length. Grappling goes to Steele for his heel-hook threat and control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele is better placed in the later rounds because his relentless forward pressure, superior grappling conditioning, and top control are built to wear opponents down.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele has a slight late-round edge through broader experience beyond the opening rounds and more ways to manage exchanges. That is not firm evidence of superior conditioning.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele is slightly better placed late because of his strength and steady pace. Both have finished early, so late-round data is thin.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Kody Steele's biggest danger is walking recklessly into a clean counter strike or opportunistic submission while forcing close-range exchanges early. Noah Gugnon's biggest danger is getting trapped on the canvas against an elite submission grappler who relentlessly chains chokes and leg locks.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele's biggest danger is absorbing hard counters while advancing without securing grappling contact. Gugnon's biggest danger is committing to an attacking scramble that exposes him to Steele's submissions.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Steele: getting caught in a scramble and giving up the back to Gugnon's choke. Gugnon: being dragged into leg-lock exchanges where one mistake can end the fight.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Steele by KO/TKO in round 1, 8% here against 6% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Steele by decision, 15% here against 24% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Steele by decision, 26% here against 18% on average for the others.
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 25 back Steele and 13 back Gugnon. This model picks Steele (58%).
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 25 back Steele and 13 back Gugnon. This model picks Steele (60%).
Gemini
On Steele: ChatGPT (60%). On Gugnon: Claude (42%).
Gemini
Steele by decision: from 15% (ChatGPT) to 26% (Claude).
Gemini
Fight Genie (Claude) (Steele by decision) and The MMA Guru (Steele by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Steele, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
Tom Feely (Steele by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Steele, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Gemini
Gemini, which gave the actual result 8%.
Gemini
Yes.
Claude
No.
Version not reported · 23 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Favoured: Steele (59%) Called it
Steele defeats Gugnon · KO/TKO R1
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