UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Round 1 · 1:44
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Magomedov attacked Rowston's lead leg from the start, forcing Rowston to change tactics and shoot for a takedown. Magomedov immediately locked up a no-arm guillotine and squeezed until Rowston went unconscious.
UFC lists Abus Magomedov versus Cam Rowston as a middleweight bout on the UFC 333 preliminary card.
Rowston is the opposing middleweight named by UFC for the Abu Dhabi matchup.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Bedtime MMA picks Abus Magomedov by Decision. Calls it 'a tough one'; allows a possible finish
“I'm going to go with Abubakar by”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
FightIQ predicts Abus Magomedov at 50% confidence (TOSS-UP).
“We predict Abus Magomedov — 50% confident”
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · KO/TKO
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Jimbo Ortega MMA picks Abus Magomedov by KO/TKO. Pretty risky pick; says Rowston would likely win if it goes to a decision
“Give me a boost by KO. Pretty risky. I”
Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
“i'm going to go with abus magamedov”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Sherdog prelims preview by Tom Feely names Magomedov as the pick, by first-round submission.
“The pick is Magomedov by first-round submission.”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
MMA Lock of the Night picks Abus Magomedov by KO/TKO in round 1. says it could get sticky if Magomedov does not grapple early in deeper water
“round knockout victory for Maggamedov.”
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · KO/TKO
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Selects Abus Magomedov to win.
* Says he is rooting for Rowston while selecting Magomedov by TKO.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
138 MMA picks Abus Magomedov.
* He expects Magomedov may fade in a third round and is relying on him banking the first two without getting finished.
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Fight Genie Claude explicitly selects f_c6ad9b for Magomedov–Rowston on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
The Oracle selects Abus Magomedov with a 55% win probability.
Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Selects Abus Magomedov to win.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.8% (20 hit, 14 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Abus Magomedov by Submission in round 2. low confidence
“via second round submission.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Selects Abus Magomedov to win.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 12 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Selects Abus Magomedov to win.
* A slight lean toward Magomedov; discusses both knockout and submission possibilities, and suggests considering Rowston live if Magomedov tires in round two.
Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
MMA Intel explicitly selects Abus Magomedov; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Fight Productions selects Abus Magomedov by round-1 knockout.
“I'm going to lean on the side of Aboose getting this one done early. So I doubted him last time. I'm going to take him to win this one by round one knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Fight Genie GPT explicitly selects f_c6ad9b for Magomedov–Rowston on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
“so I'm picking Magameov to win by decision”
Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Schweppe explicitly selects Magomedov by decision.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
“so yeah give me Abus by 2928 decision based on the first and second rounds”
Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
Picked: Abus Magomedov
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
“maybe I'll take Cam Rouse as long as he can get out of the first round”
* as long as he can get out of the first round
Track record: winner called in 7 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 9 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Cam Rowston for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Selects Cam Rowston to win.
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
AJ Devito picks Cam Rowston.
“I'm going with Cam”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
JakeGerberMMA picks Cam Rowston by Decision. Slight lean; calls it 50/50
“to slightly lean in the direction of Cam”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Fite Feed picks Cam Rowston by KO/TKO in round 2.
“I think Cam Rauston's going to KO him in round two.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
DFS By The Numbers picks Cam Rowston by KO/TKO in round 2.
“Give me Cam Rawston, I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Tony Sink picks Cam Rowston, per the Doc's Sports pick line.
“Tony Sink's Pick: Take Cam Rowston (+105)”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (11 hit, 6 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Cam Rowston for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Cam Rowston for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · KO/TKO
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Selects Cam Rowston to win.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Livid Larry MMA picks Cam Rowston by Decision. Lean; says it is 50/50
“lean towards Cam Rston to get it done”
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · KO/TKO
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Backs Rowston to weather Magomedov early and win on durability and cardio; calls it a very tough fight and discloses he is rooting for Rowston.
“So, I'm going with Kam Ralston to win this fight via knockout in round two or round three.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Combat Edge Model’s frozen UFC 333 forecast favors Cam Rowston (68%) over Abus Magomedov (32%); the source publishes winner probabilities, not a method or round. Observation snapshot: 2026-10-17 (not asserted as the original publication or lock date); the source labels this forecast version v0.8-2026-10-04.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · KO/TKO
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · Sub
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Cam Rowston for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Cam Rowston for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Cam Rowston for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · Round 1
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
“I think Cam Rousson's going to chin him late round one”
Track record: winner called in 4 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (4 hit, 3 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Jon Litterine explicitly selects Cam Rowston; no method or round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Cam Rowston by decision; no round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
RotoWire best-bets piece by Cole Shelton names Rowston (+110) as the winner; the method is hedged and not stated.
“For my underdog play at UFC 333, I'm taking Cam Rowston to beat Abus Magomedov on the prelims.”
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Selects Cam Rowston to win.
Track record: winner called in 18 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (18 hit, 17 miss, across 35 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 35 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Greedo picks Cam Rowston by second-round TKO.
* He calls this competitive and says a Magomedov win would not shock him.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston · Dec
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
Early prediction: Don Smoke goes with Rowston, rating his cardio and expecting him to hold his own on the feet and avoid being submitted, by close decision.
“give me Roustan on this one by a close decision, to be honest with you.”
Track record: winner called in 12 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 46.2% (12 hit, 14 miss, across 26 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 26 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
The Lab Analytics' explicit model pick selects Cam Rowston (62.1% model probability; MED confidence, STRONG tier). The page publishes no method or round. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 observed page snapshot; no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).
Picked: Cam Rowston
Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission
FIGHT//AI's UFC 333 predictions page lists Cam Rowston over Abus Magomedov (72% site-displayed confidence); observed 2026-10-17 as the snapshot date, not an asserted original publication or lock date; no method or round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
Analyst picks: The Cage Doctor Miss; UFC Predict — Logistic Core Miss; Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; Tom Feely Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Michael Chiesa Miss; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Miss; Fite Feed Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; Tony Sink Miss; UFC Predict — CatBoost Miss; UFC Predict — Main + Market Miss; 138 MMA Hit; Mate Bersenadze Miss; Livid Larry MMA Miss; HopperMMA Hit; James Blissett Miss; Combat Edge Model Miss; MMA Mathletes Miss; Fight Genie (Claude) Hit; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Hit; Tim Edwards Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Hit; Kunath Miss; Danny Howard Hit; Artem MMA Miss; Mike Finch Hit; MMA Intel Hit; UFC Predict — Ensemble Miss; UFC Predict — LightGBM Miss; UFC Predict — XGBoost Miss; Fight Society Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Hit; Fight Genie (GPT) Hit; MMA.SOCIAL Miss; Kasper MMA Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Cole Shelton Miss; Aniki MMA Hit; Half The Battle Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; Voice of MMA Hit; Andy Lang Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; DON SMOKE MMA Miss; The Lab Analytics Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss.
23 of 53 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Magomedov · Submission · R1
Closest probability ChatGPT put 58% on Magomedov.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Magomedov
Most likely: Magomedov by submission, about 25 in 100
Win chance: Magomedov 58%, Rowston 41%, draw or no contest 1%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Rowston
Most likely: Rowston by decision, about 24 in 100
Win chance: Magomedov 41%, Rowston 57%, draw or no contest 2%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Magomedov
Most likely: Magomedov by decision, about 26 in 100
Win chance: Magomedov 56%, Rowston 43%, draw or no contest 2%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
2 of 3 models pick Magomedov; 1 of 3 models pick Rowston.
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Rowston: 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Rowston: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Magomedov: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Magomedov: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Rowston: 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov by submission: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Claude
Rowston by decision: 24% (about 24 in 100).
Gemini
Magomedov by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Magomedov by submission (25%); 2. Rowston by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Magomedov by decision (20%)
Claude
1. Rowston by decision (24%); 2. Magomedov by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Rowston by submission (21%)
Gemini
1. Magomedov by decision (26%); 2. Rowston by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Magomedov by submission (18%)
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Magomedov's 58% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Rowston's 57% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Magomedov's 56% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 67%. Decision: 32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 60%. Decision: 38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov wins 58%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 25%, decision 20%.
Claude
Magomedov wins 41%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 5%, decision 14%.
Gemini
Magomedov wins 56%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 18%, decision 26%.
ChatGPT
Rowston wins 41%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 6%, decision 12%.
Claude
Rowston wins 57%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 21%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Rowston wins 43%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 8%, decision 15%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov’s wrestling gives him a narrow edge, but Rowston can turn the fight with sustained pressure if he survives the early grappling exchanges.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston likely uses grappling and pressure to control or submit Magomedov, who needs his heavy striking to land early.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should use his measured wrestling and heavy top control to neutralize Rowston's striking pace, winning on the scorecards or finding an early submission if he avoids fading late.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 23%.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 52% (from 58%), Rowston 47% (from 41%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston becomes more dangerous if he makes Magomedov work hard without conceding damaging positions. Magomedov can still win later rounds by pacing himself and maintaining top control.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 39% (from 41%), Rowston 58% (from 57%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Magomedov's early power is absorbed, Rowston's wrestling and positional control should take over, and the fight tilts toward him through takedowns, top control or a submission.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 54% (from 56%), Rowston 45% (from 43%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If the fight gets past the first round, the dynamic shifts toward Rowston as Magomedov's gas tank begins to empty and his explosive threat fades. Rowston builds momentum in the middle rounds with high-volume striking from range, testing Magomedov's durability and stamina.
ChatGPT
Rowston's most likely upset: Rowston by decision (12%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston needs to defend the initial takedowns, escape quickly when grounded and force repeated striking exchanges. Making Magomedov retreat could open a stoppage as his defensive reactions slow.
Claude
Magomedov's most likely upset: Magomedov by decision (14%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov stays upright, lands heavy strikes and punishes Rowston's entries to score a knockout or stoppage, or defends takedowns well enough to win a decision.
Gemini
Rowston's most likely upset: Rowston by decision (15%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is most likely to pull off the win by surviving Magomedov's early grappling, forcing a high-paced striking battle from range, and finishing a tiring Magomedov via strikes in the second or third round.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should use his kicks to set up clinches, establish top position and pursue chokes without exhausting himself. Rowston should keep the fight standing, pressure behind measured combinations and punish tiring entries.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov: keep distance, land heavy counters and finish a hurried takedown attempt. Rowston: close distance, take Magomedov down and grind into back control or a submission.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's best path is using measured wrestling to put Rowston on his back, where he can bank rounds with top control or hunt for opportunistic chokes. Rowston's best path is keeping the fight at striking range and pushing a high pace to wear Magomedov down for a middle-round stoppage or decision.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Rowston can stand up after the first takedown and whether Magomedov stays composed when his initial attacks fail.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Rowston gets his takedown entries without being hurt, and whether Magomedov stuffs them and lands clean power shots.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Magomedov can secure his first takedown attempt and how much energy he expends to keep Rowston on the mat.
All models
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Magomedov, Claude: Rowston, Gemini: Magomedov).
ChatGPT
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's most likely outcome.
Claude
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rowston by decision (24%).
Gemini
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Magomedov by decision (26%).
ChatGPT
12% (about 12 in 100).
Claude
2% (about 2 in 100).
Gemini
8% (about 8 in 100).
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 36%, submission 31%, decision 32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%, decision 38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 32%, submission 26%, decision 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Claude
2%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 38%, against 29% for Rowston.
Claude
Rowston: 33%, against 27% for Magomedov.
Gemini
Magomedov: 30%, against 28% for Rowston.
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 38% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 25%). Rowston: 29% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 6%).
Claude
Magomedov: 27% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 5%). Rowston: 33% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 21%).
Gemini
Magomedov: 30% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 18%). Rowston: 28% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 8%).
ChatGPT
Magomedov is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 6%. Rowston is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 25%.
Claude
Magomedov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 21%. Rowston is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Magomedov is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 8%. Rowston is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 18%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 41%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 41%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov by decision: 20%. Rowston by decision: 12%.
Claude
Magomedov by decision: 14%. Rowston by decision: 24%.
Gemini
Magomedov by decision: 26%. Rowston by decision: 15%.
ChatGPT
Rowston wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Magomedov wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Rowston wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 4th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 6th closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, the clash between Magomedov’s early danger and Rowston’s growing pressure makes this an intriguing fight with several possible momentum swings.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a clear striker-versus-grappler middleweight contest with real finishing potential on both sides.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for the tense clash between Magomedov's dangerous early grappling and Rowston's relentless, momentum-building striking pace.
ChatGPT
25%.
Claude
25%.
Gemini
23%.
ChatGPT
49%.
Claude
47%.
Gemini
43%.
ChatGPT
32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 18%.
Claude
Round 3: 13%.
Gemini
Round 3: 15%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 53%, submission 47%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 57%, submission 43%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 63%. If it goes longer: Magomedov 54%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 31%, Rowston 18%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Rowston 55%. If it goes longer: Rowston 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 21%, Rowston 26%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 56%. If it goes longer: Magomedov 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 24%, Rowston 19%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 63%, Rowston 38%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 38%, Rowston 63%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 63%, Rowston 37%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov could dominate if his first takedowns lead to sustained control and repeated submission threats. Rowston’s ability to regain his feet is the main obstacle to that scenario.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston could dominate if he gets takedowns early and holds top control, but Magomedov's power means a quick one-sided finish for him is also possible.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov could make this fight one-sided by effortlessly securing early takedowns and keeping Rowston pinned to the canvas, completely neutralizing his striking threat.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov holds the more proven offensive wrestling against stronger opposition. That gives him the clearest route to dictate where the fight happens.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston holds the grappling and control edge, which should decide where the fight takes place.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The most important edge is Magomedov's offensive wrestling and heavy top control against Rowston's vulnerable takedown defense, allowing Magomedov to dictate where the fight takes place.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest variable is how much Rowston’s defensive wrestling has improved since his loss to Torrez Finney. His subsequent success does not fully answer that question.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's knockout power against Rowston's willingness to take risks while closing distance.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's cardio management is the biggest X-factor, as his ability to pace himself through wrestling exchanges determines whether he cruises on top or wilts under Rowston's pressure.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Strong evidence that Rowston can repeatedly deny Magomedov’s takedowns without tiring would shift my forecast toward him.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Early takedown defense from Magomedov or Rowston being badly hurt in round one would move me toward Magomedov.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Rowston show dramatically improved takedown defense and scrambling ability would shift the outlook, as would evidence that Magomedov can sustain a high striking pace without fading.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter’s final weight-cut condition or independently verify that both completed camp without meaningful injuries.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not verify full recent form or any camp and weight-cut issues, and the sources I found disagreed on both fighters' records.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How well Rowston's takedown defense has developed against seasoned UFC-level wrestlers and whether Magomedov can preserve his gas tank if forced to work hard for takedowns remain key unknowns.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favor Rowston in prolonged striking exchanges because of his pressure, though Magomedov is dangerous early. Magomedov has the grappling edge through more proven takedowns and top control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should hold the edge in striking because of his power. Rowston should win the grappling because of his takedowns and submission skill.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston should win the extended striking exchanges due to his reach, output, and sustained pace from range, while Magomedov will dominate the grappling thanks to his superior wrestling, heavy top pressure, and opportunistic chokes.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston has a conditional late edge if he forces a hard pace and avoids prolonged bottom position. Magomedov’s three-round wins show that a late collapse is far from inevitable.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is better placed in the later rounds because grappling control and pace usually wear down a power striker.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is better placed in the later rounds because he maintains a high striking volume and builds momentum, while Magomedov has historically fatigued and become vulnerable to cumulative damage.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov risks exhausting himself on unsuccessful attacks and getting stopped under sustained pressure. Rowston risks conceding early top position and exposing his neck while trying to escape.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov: getting taken down and controlled or submitted by Rowston. Rowston: walking into a heavy counter while closing distance.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Magomedov, the biggest danger is gassing out under Rowston's relentless striking pace and getting overwhelmed by accumulation in the middle and late rounds. For Rowston, the biggest danger is failing to stop takedowns and getting trapped underneath Magomedov's heavy top control and opportunistic submission game.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Rowston by decision, 12% here against 19% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Rowston by decision, 24% here against 14% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Magomedov by decision, 26% here against 17% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Magomedov (58%).
Claude
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Rowston (57%).
Gemini
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Magomedov (56%).
All models
On Magomedov: ChatGPT (58%). On Rowston: Claude (57%).
All models
Rowston by decision: from 12% (ChatGPT) to 24% (Claude).
ChatGPT
Tom Feely (Magomedov by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Magomedov, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).
Claude
MMA.SOCIAL (Rowston by decision), Artem MMA (Rowston by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Rowston by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Rowston by decision) and DON SMOKE MMA (Rowston by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Rowston, most likely by decision.
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Magomedov by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Magomedov by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Magomedov by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (Magomedov by decision), HopperMMA (Magomedov by decision), Bedtime MMA (Magomedov by decision), Kasper MMA (Magomedov by decision) and Aniki MMA (Magomedov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Magomedov, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
All models
ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 12%.
ChatGPT
Yes.
Claude
No.
Gemini
Yes.
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Magomedov by submission, about 25 in 100
Win chance: Magomedov 58%, Rowston 41%, draw or no contest 1%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Magomedov’s wrestling to create choke opportunities, particularly during escapes. His recent submission win supports that route.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Rowston’s pressure to threaten a tiring Magomedov. His stoppages of Petroski and Brundage support his finishing threat.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov can conserve energy through top control if a submission does not develop. His wins over Pereira and Alves support this route.
Draw or no contest: 1%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomedov KO/TKO | 7% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Magomedov Submission | 12% | 8% | 5% | — |
| Magomedov Decision | — | — | — | 20% |
| Rowston KO/TKO | 5% | 10% | 8% | — |
| Rowston Submission | 1% | 2% | 3% | — |
| Rowston Decision | — | — | — | 12% |
| Draw or no contest | 1% | |||
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Rowston: 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Rowston: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Magomedov: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Magomedov: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Rowston: 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov by submission: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Claude
Rowston by decision: 24% (about 24 in 100).
Gemini
Magomedov by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Magomedov by submission (25%); 2. Rowston by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Magomedov by decision (20%)
Claude
1. Rowston by decision (24%); 2. Magomedov by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Rowston by submission (21%)
Gemini
1. Magomedov by decision (26%); 2. Rowston by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Magomedov by submission (18%)
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Magomedov's 58% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Rowston's 57% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Magomedov's 56% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 67%. Decision: 32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 60%. Decision: 38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov wins 58%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 25%, decision 20%.
Claude
Magomedov wins 41%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 5%, decision 14%.
Gemini
Magomedov wins 56%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 18%, decision 26%.
ChatGPT
Rowston wins 41%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 6%, decision 12%.
Claude
Rowston wins 57%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 21%, decision 24%.
Gemini
Rowston wins 43%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 8%, decision 15%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov’s wrestling gives him a narrow edge, but Rowston can turn the fight with sustained pressure if he survives the early grappling exchanges.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston likely uses grappling and pressure to control or submit Magomedov, who needs his heavy striking to land early.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should use his measured wrestling and heavy top control to neutralize Rowston's striking pace, winning on the scorecards or finding an early submission if he avoids fading late.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 23%.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 52% (from 58%), Rowston 47% (from 41%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston becomes more dangerous if he makes Magomedov work hard without conceding damaging positions. Magomedov can still win later rounds by pacing himself and maintaining top control.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 39% (from 41%), Rowston 58% (from 57%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Magomedov's early power is absorbed, Rowston's wrestling and positional control should take over, and the fight tilts toward him through takedowns, top control or a submission.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 54% (from 56%), Rowston 45% (from 43%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If the fight gets past the first round, the dynamic shifts toward Rowston as Magomedov's gas tank begins to empty and his explosive threat fades. Rowston builds momentum in the middle rounds with high-volume striking from range, testing Magomedov's durability and stamina.
ChatGPT
Rowston's most likely upset: Rowston by decision (12%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston needs to defend the initial takedowns, escape quickly when grounded and force repeated striking exchanges. Making Magomedov retreat could open a stoppage as his defensive reactions slow.
Claude
Magomedov's most likely upset: Magomedov by decision (14%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov stays upright, lands heavy strikes and punishes Rowston's entries to score a knockout or stoppage, or defends takedowns well enough to win a decision.
Gemini
Rowston's most likely upset: Rowston by decision (15%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is most likely to pull off the win by surviving Magomedov's early grappling, forcing a high-paced striking battle from range, and finishing a tiring Magomedov via strikes in the second or third round.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should use his kicks to set up clinches, establish top position and pursue chokes without exhausting himself. Rowston should keep the fight standing, pressure behind measured combinations and punish tiring entries.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov: keep distance, land heavy counters and finish a hurried takedown attempt. Rowston: close distance, take Magomedov down and grind into back control or a submission.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's best path is using measured wrestling to put Rowston on his back, where he can bank rounds with top control or hunt for opportunistic chokes. Rowston's best path is keeping the fight at striking range and pushing a high pace to wear Magomedov down for a middle-round stoppage or decision.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Rowston can stand up after the first takedown and whether Magomedov stays composed when his initial attacks fail.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Rowston gets his takedown entries without being hurt, and whether Magomedov stuffs them and lands clean power shots.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Magomedov can secure his first takedown attempt and how much energy he expends to keep Rowston on the mat.
ChatGPT
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Magomedov, Claude: Rowston, Gemini: Magomedov).
ChatGPT
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's most likely outcome.
Claude
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rowston by decision (24%).
Gemini
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Magomedov by decision (26%).
ChatGPT
12% (about 12 in 100).
Claude
2% (about 2 in 100).
Gemini
8% (about 8 in 100).
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 36%, submission 31%, decision 32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%, decision 38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 32%, submission 26%, decision 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Claude
2%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 38%, against 29% for Rowston.
Claude
Rowston: 33%, against 27% for Magomedov.
Gemini
Magomedov: 30%, against 28% for Rowston.
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 38% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 25%). Rowston: 29% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 6%).
Claude
Magomedov: 27% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 5%). Rowston: 33% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 21%).
Gemini
Magomedov: 30% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 18%). Rowston: 28% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 8%).
ChatGPT
Magomedov is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 6%. Rowston is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 25%.
Claude
Magomedov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 21%. Rowston is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Magomedov is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 8%. Rowston is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 18%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 41%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 41%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov by decision: 20%. Rowston by decision: 12%.
Claude
Magomedov by decision: 14%. Rowston by decision: 24%.
Gemini
Magomedov by decision: 26%. Rowston by decision: 15%.
ChatGPT
Rowston wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Magomedov wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Rowston wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 4th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 6th closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, the clash between Magomedov’s early danger and Rowston’s growing pressure makes this an intriguing fight with several possible momentum swings.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a clear striker-versus-grappler middleweight contest with real finishing potential on both sides.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for the tense clash between Magomedov's dangerous early grappling and Rowston's relentless, momentum-building striking pace.
ChatGPT
25%.
Gemini
23%.
ChatGPT
49%.
Claude
47%.
Gemini
43%.
ChatGPT
32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 18%.
Claude
Round 3: 13%.
Gemini
Round 3: 15%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 53%, submission 47%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 57%, submission 43%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 63%. If it goes longer: Magomedov 54%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 31%, Rowston 18%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Rowston 55%. If it goes longer: Rowston 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 21%, Rowston 26%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 56%. If it goes longer: Magomedov 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 24%, Rowston 19%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 63%, Rowston 38%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 38%, Rowston 63%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 63%, Rowston 37%.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov could dominate if his first takedowns lead to sustained control and repeated submission threats. Rowston’s ability to regain his feet is the main obstacle to that scenario.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston could dominate if he gets takedowns early and holds top control, but Magomedov's power means a quick one-sided finish for him is also possible.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov could make this fight one-sided by effortlessly securing early takedowns and keeping Rowston pinned to the canvas, completely neutralizing his striking threat.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov holds the more proven offensive wrestling against stronger opposition. That gives him the clearest route to dictate where the fight happens.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston holds the grappling and control edge, which should decide where the fight takes place.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The most important edge is Magomedov's offensive wrestling and heavy top control against Rowston's vulnerable takedown defense, allowing Magomedov to dictate where the fight takes place.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest variable is how much Rowston’s defensive wrestling has improved since his loss to Torrez Finney. His subsequent success does not fully answer that question.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's knockout power against Rowston's willingness to take risks while closing distance.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's cardio management is the biggest X-factor, as his ability to pace himself through wrestling exchanges determines whether he cruises on top or wilts under Rowston's pressure.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Strong evidence that Rowston can repeatedly deny Magomedov’s takedowns without tiring would shift my forecast toward him.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Early takedown defense from Magomedov or Rowston being badly hurt in round one would move me toward Magomedov.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Rowston show dramatically improved takedown defense and scrambling ability would shift the outlook, as would evidence that Magomedov can sustain a high striking pace without fading.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter’s final weight-cut condition or independently verify that both completed camp without meaningful injuries.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not verify full recent form or any camp and weight-cut issues, and the sources I found disagreed on both fighters' records.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How well Rowston's takedown defense has developed against seasoned UFC-level wrestlers and whether Magomedov can preserve his gas tank if forced to work hard for takedowns remain key unknowns.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favor Rowston in prolonged striking exchanges because of his pressure, though Magomedov is dangerous early. Magomedov has the grappling edge through more proven takedowns and top control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should hold the edge in striking because of his power. Rowston should win the grappling because of his takedowns and submission skill.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston should win the extended striking exchanges due to his reach, output, and sustained pace from range, while Magomedov will dominate the grappling thanks to his superior wrestling, heavy top pressure, and opportunistic chokes.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston has a conditional late edge if he forces a hard pace and avoids prolonged bottom position. Magomedov’s three-round wins show that a late collapse is far from inevitable.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is better placed in the later rounds because grappling control and pace usually wear down a power striker.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is better placed in the later rounds because he maintains a high striking volume and builds momentum, while Magomedov has historically fatigued and become vulnerable to cumulative damage.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov risks exhausting himself on unsuccessful attacks and getting stopped under sustained pressure. Rowston risks conceding early top position and exposing his neck while trying to escape.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov: getting taken down and controlled or submitted by Rowston. Rowston: walking into a heavy counter while closing distance.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Magomedov, the biggest danger is gassing out under Rowston's relentless striking pace and getting overwhelmed by accumulation in the middle and late rounds. For Rowston, the biggest danger is failing to stop takedowns and getting trapped underneath Magomedov's heavy top control and opportunistic submission game.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Rowston by decision, 12% here against 19% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Rowston by decision, 24% here against 14% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Magomedov by decision, 26% here against 17% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Magomedov (58%).
Claude
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Rowston (57%).
Gemini
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Magomedov (56%).
ChatGPT
On Magomedov: ChatGPT (58%). On Rowston: Claude (57%).
ChatGPT
Rowston by decision: from 12% (ChatGPT) to 24% (Claude).
ChatGPT
Tom Feely (Magomedov by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Magomedov, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).
Claude
MMA.SOCIAL (Rowston by decision), Artem MMA (Rowston by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Rowston by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Rowston by decision) and DON SMOKE MMA (Rowston by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Rowston, most likely by decision.
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Magomedov by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Magomedov by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Magomedov by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (Magomedov by decision), HopperMMA (Magomedov by decision), Bedtime MMA (Magomedov by decision), Kasper MMA (Magomedov by decision) and Aniki MMA (Magomedov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Magomedov, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
ChatGPT
ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 12%.
ChatGPT
Yes.
Claude
No.
gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Rowston by decision, about 24 in 100
Win chance: Magomedov 41%, Rowston 57%, draw or no contest 2%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston's wrestling and top control should earn rounds if Magomedov survives, though Magomedov's power may stop that.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov has real knockout power and could land it as Rowston enters for takedowns.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is a grappler and may find the back or a choke once he gets Magomedov down.
Draw or no contest: 2%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomedov KO/TKO | 10% | 8% | 5% | — |
| Magomedov Submission | 2% | 2% | 1% | — |
| Magomedov Decision | — | — | — | 14% |
| Rowston KO/TKO | 5% | 5% | 3% | — |
| Rowston Submission | 9% | 8% | 5% | — |
| Rowston Decision | — | — | — | 24% |
| Draw or no contest | 2% | |||
Claude
Rowston: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Magomedov: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Rowston: 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Magomedov: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Rowston: 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Rowston by decision: 24% (about 24 in 100).
ChatGPT
Magomedov by submission: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Gemini
Magomedov by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
Claude
1. Rowston by decision (24%); 2. Magomedov by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Rowston by submission (21%)
ChatGPT
1. Magomedov by submission (25%); 2. Rowston by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Magomedov by decision (20%)
Gemini
1. Magomedov by decision (26%); 2. Rowston by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Magomedov by submission (18%)
Claude
6 of 10, based on Rowston's 57% win chance.
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Magomedov's 58% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Magomedov's 56% win chance.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 60%. Decision: 38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 67%. Decision: 32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Magomedov wins 41%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 5%, decision 14%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov wins 58%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 25%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Magomedov wins 56%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 18%, decision 26%.
Claude
Rowston wins 57%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 21%, decision 24%.
ChatGPT
Rowston wins 41%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 6%, decision 12%.
Gemini
Rowston wins 43%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 8%, decision 15%.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston likely uses grappling and pressure to control or submit Magomedov, who needs his heavy striking to land early.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov’s wrestling gives him a narrow edge, but Rowston can turn the fight with sustained pressure if he survives the early grappling exchanges.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should use his measured wrestling and heavy top control to neutralize Rowston's striking pace, winning on the scorecards or finding an early submission if he avoids fading late.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 23%.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 39% (from 41%), Rowston 58% (from 57%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Magomedov's early power is absorbed, Rowston's wrestling and positional control should take over, and the fight tilts toward him through takedowns, top control or a submission.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 52% (from 58%), Rowston 47% (from 41%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston becomes more dangerous if he makes Magomedov work hard without conceding damaging positions. Magomedov can still win later rounds by pacing himself and maintaining top control.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 54% (from 56%), Rowston 45% (from 43%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If the fight gets past the first round, the dynamic shifts toward Rowston as Magomedov's gas tank begins to empty and his explosive threat fades. Rowston builds momentum in the middle rounds with high-volume striking from range, testing Magomedov's durability and stamina.
Claude
Magomedov's most likely upset: Magomedov by decision (14%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov stays upright, lands heavy strikes and punishes Rowston's entries to score a knockout or stoppage, or defends takedowns well enough to win a decision.
ChatGPT
Rowston's most likely upset: Rowston by decision (12%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston needs to defend the initial takedowns, escape quickly when grounded and force repeated striking exchanges. Making Magomedov retreat could open a stoppage as his defensive reactions slow.
Gemini
Rowston's most likely upset: Rowston by decision (15%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is most likely to pull off the win by surviving Magomedov's early grappling, forcing a high-paced striking battle from range, and finishing a tiring Magomedov via strikes in the second or third round.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov: keep distance, land heavy counters and finish a hurried takedown attempt. Rowston: close distance, take Magomedov down and grind into back control or a submission.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should use his kicks to set up clinches, establish top position and pursue chokes without exhausting himself. Rowston should keep the fight standing, pressure behind measured combinations and punish tiring entries.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's best path is using measured wrestling to put Rowston on his back, where he can bank rounds with top control or hunt for opportunistic chokes. Rowston's best path is keeping the fight at striking range and pushing a high pace to wear Magomedov down for a middle-round stoppage or decision.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Rowston gets his takedown entries without being hurt, and whether Magomedov stuffs them and lands clean power shots.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Rowston can stand up after the first takedown and whether Magomedov stays composed when his initial attacks fail.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Magomedov can secure his first takedown attempt and how much energy he expends to keep Rowston on the mat.
Claude
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Magomedov, Claude: Rowston, Gemini: Magomedov).
Claude
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rowston by decision (24%).
ChatGPT
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Magomedov by decision (26%).
Claude
2% (about 2 in 100).
ChatGPT
12% (about 12 in 100).
Gemini
8% (about 8 in 100).
Claude
KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%, decision 38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 36%, submission 31%, decision 32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 32%, submission 26%, decision 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Claude
Rowston: 33%, against 27% for Magomedov.
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 38%, against 29% for Rowston.
Gemini
Magomedov: 30%, against 28% for Rowston.
Claude
Magomedov: 27% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 5%). Rowston: 33% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 21%).
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 38% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 25%). Rowston: 29% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 6%).
Gemini
Magomedov: 30% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 18%). Rowston: 28% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 8%).
Claude
Magomedov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 21%. Rowston is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 5%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 6%. Rowston is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 25%.
Gemini
Magomedov is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 8%. Rowston is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 18%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 41%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 41%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.
Claude
Magomedov by decision: 14%. Rowston by decision: 24%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov by decision: 20%. Rowston by decision: 12%.
Gemini
Magomedov by decision: 26%. Rowston by decision: 15%.
Claude
Magomedov wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Rowston wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Rowston wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 4th most likely to end early.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 6th closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a clear striker-versus-grappler middleweight contest with real finishing potential on both sides.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, the clash between Magomedov’s early danger and Rowston’s growing pressure makes this an intriguing fight with several possible momentum swings.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for the tense clash between Magomedov's dangerous early grappling and Rowston's relentless, momentum-building striking pace.
Claude
25%.
Gemini
23%.
Claude
47%.
ChatGPT
49%.
Gemini
43%.
Claude
38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Gemini
41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Claude
Round 3: 13%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 18%.
Gemini
Round 3: 15%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 57%, submission 43%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 53%, submission 47%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Rowston 55%. If it goes longer: Rowston 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 21%, Rowston 26%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 63%. If it goes longer: Magomedov 54%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 31%, Rowston 18%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 56%. If it goes longer: Magomedov 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 24%, Rowston 19%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 38%, Rowston 63%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 63%, Rowston 38%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 63%, Rowston 37%.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston could dominate if he gets takedowns early and holds top control, but Magomedov's power means a quick one-sided finish for him is also possible.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov could dominate if his first takedowns lead to sustained control and repeated submission threats. Rowston’s ability to regain his feet is the main obstacle to that scenario.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov could make this fight one-sided by effortlessly securing early takedowns and keeping Rowston pinned to the canvas, completely neutralizing his striking threat.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston holds the grappling and control edge, which should decide where the fight takes place.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov holds the more proven offensive wrestling against stronger opposition. That gives him the clearest route to dictate where the fight happens.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The most important edge is Magomedov's offensive wrestling and heavy top control against Rowston's vulnerable takedown defense, allowing Magomedov to dictate where the fight takes place.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's knockout power against Rowston's willingness to take risks while closing distance.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest variable is how much Rowston’s defensive wrestling has improved since his loss to Torrez Finney. His subsequent success does not fully answer that question.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's cardio management is the biggest X-factor, as his ability to pace himself through wrestling exchanges determines whether he cruises on top or wilts under Rowston's pressure.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Early takedown defense from Magomedov or Rowston being badly hurt in round one would move me toward Magomedov.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Strong evidence that Rowston can repeatedly deny Magomedov’s takedowns without tiring would shift my forecast toward him.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Rowston show dramatically improved takedown defense and scrambling ability would shift the outlook, as would evidence that Magomedov can sustain a high striking pace without fading.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not verify full recent form or any camp and weight-cut issues, and the sources I found disagreed on both fighters' records.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter’s final weight-cut condition or independently verify that both completed camp without meaningful injuries.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How well Rowston's takedown defense has developed against seasoned UFC-level wrestlers and whether Magomedov can preserve his gas tank if forced to work hard for takedowns remain key unknowns.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should hold the edge in striking because of his power. Rowston should win the grappling because of his takedowns and submission skill.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favor Rowston in prolonged striking exchanges because of his pressure, though Magomedov is dangerous early. Magomedov has the grappling edge through more proven takedowns and top control.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston should win the extended striking exchanges due to his reach, output, and sustained pace from range, while Magomedov will dominate the grappling thanks to his superior wrestling, heavy top pressure, and opportunistic chokes.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is better placed in the later rounds because grappling control and pace usually wear down a power striker.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston has a conditional late edge if he forces a hard pace and avoids prolonged bottom position. Magomedov’s three-round wins show that a late collapse is far from inevitable.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is better placed in the later rounds because he maintains a high striking volume and builds momentum, while Magomedov has historically fatigued and become vulnerable to cumulative damage.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov: getting taken down and controlled or submitted by Rowston. Rowston: walking into a heavy counter while closing distance.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov risks exhausting himself on unsuccessful attacks and getting stopped under sustained pressure. Rowston risks conceding early top position and exposing his neck while trying to escape.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Magomedov, the biggest danger is gassing out under Rowston's relentless striking pace and getting overwhelmed by accumulation in the middle and late rounds. For Rowston, the biggest danger is failing to stop takedowns and getting trapped underneath Magomedov's heavy top control and opportunistic submission game.
Claude
Biggest difference: Rowston by decision, 24% here against 14% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Rowston by decision, 12% here against 19% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Magomedov by decision, 26% here against 17% on average for the others.
Claude
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Rowston (57%).
ChatGPT
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Magomedov (58%).
Gemini
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Magomedov (56%).
Claude
On Magomedov: ChatGPT (58%). On Rowston: Claude (57%).
Claude
Rowston by decision: from 12% (ChatGPT) to 24% (Claude).
Claude
MMA.SOCIAL (Rowston by decision), Artem MMA (Rowston by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Rowston by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Rowston by decision) and DON SMOKE MMA (Rowston by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Rowston, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
Tom Feely (Magomedov by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Magomedov, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Magomedov by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Magomedov by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Magomedov by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (Magomedov by decision), HopperMMA (Magomedov by decision), Bedtime MMA (Magomedov by decision), Kasper MMA (Magomedov by decision) and Aniki MMA (Magomedov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Magomedov, most likely by decision.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Claude
ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 12%.
Claude
No.
ChatGPT
Yes.
Gemini
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Magomedov by decision, about 26 in 100
Win chance: Magomedov 56%, Rowston 43%, draw or no contest 2%.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov has leaned heavily on measured wrestling and top control in recent bouts, which matches up well against Rowston's vulnerable takedown defense over three rounds.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston pushes a high striking pace from range and builds momentum into the middle rounds, where Magomedov has historically slowed down and become vulnerable to accumulation.
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov possesses dangerous top pressure and opportunistic chokes in scrambles, giving him strong finishing upside whenever he forces grappling exchanges.
Draw or no contest: 2%
Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.
| Outcome | R1 | R2 | R3 | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomedov KO/TKO | 7% | 4% | 2% | — |
| Magomedov Submission | 8% | 6% | 4% | — |
| Magomedov Decision | — | — | — | 26% |
| Rowston KO/TKO | 6% | 8% | 6% | — |
| Rowston Submission | 2% | 3% | 3% | — |
| Rowston Decision | — | — | — | 15% |
| Draw or no contest | 2% | |||
Gemini
Magomedov: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Rowston: 43%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Rowston: 41%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Rowston: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Magomedov: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Magomedov by decision: 26% (about 26 in 100).
ChatGPT
Magomedov by submission: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Claude
Rowston by decision: 24% (about 24 in 100).
Gemini
1. Magomedov by decision (26%); 2. Rowston by KO/TKO (20%); 3. Magomedov by submission (18%)
ChatGPT
1. Magomedov by submission (25%); 2. Rowston by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Magomedov by decision (20%)
Claude
1. Rowston by decision (24%); 2. Magomedov by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Rowston by submission (21%)
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Magomedov's 56% win chance.
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Magomedov's 58% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Rowston's 57% win chance.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 67%. Decision: 32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 60%. Decision: 38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Magomedov wins 56%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 18%, decision 26%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov wins 58%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 25%, decision 20%.
Claude
Magomedov wins 41%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 5%, decision 14%.
Gemini
Rowston wins 43%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 8%, decision 15%.
ChatGPT
Rowston wins 41%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 6%, decision 12%.
Claude
Rowston wins 57%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 21%, decision 24%.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should use his measured wrestling and heavy top control to neutralize Rowston's striking pace, winning on the scorecards or finding an early submission if he avoids fading late.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov’s wrestling gives him a narrow edge, but Rowston can turn the fight with sustained pressure if he survives the early grappling exchanges.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston likely uses grappling and pressure to control or submit Magomedov, who needs his heavy striking to land early.
Gemini
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (39% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 23%.
ChatGPT
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (37% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.
Claude
If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (41% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 25%.
Gemini
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 54% (from 56%), Rowston 45% (from 43%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If the fight gets past the first round, the dynamic shifts toward Rowston as Magomedov's gas tank begins to empty and his explosive threat fades. Rowston builds momentum in the middle rounds with high-volume striking from range, testing Magomedov's durability and stamina.
ChatGPT
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 52% (from 58%), Rowston 47% (from 41%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston becomes more dangerous if he makes Magomedov work hard without conceding damaging positions. Magomedov can still win later rounds by pacing himself and maintaining top control.
Claude
If it gets past round 1: Magomedov 39% (from 41%), Rowston 58% (from 57%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Magomedov's early power is absorbed, Rowston's wrestling and positional control should take over, and the fight tilts toward him through takedowns, top control or a submission.
Gemini
Rowston's most likely upset: Rowston by decision (15%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is most likely to pull off the win by surviving Magomedov's early grappling, forcing a high-paced striking battle from range, and finishing a tiring Magomedov via strikes in the second or third round.
ChatGPT
Rowston's most likely upset: Rowston by decision (12%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston needs to defend the initial takedowns, escape quickly when grounded and force repeated striking exchanges. Making Magomedov retreat could open a stoppage as his defensive reactions slow.
Claude
Magomedov's most likely upset: Magomedov by decision (14%).
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov stays upright, lands heavy strikes and punishes Rowston's entries to score a knockout or stoppage, or defends takedowns well enough to win a decision.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's best path is using measured wrestling to put Rowston on his back, where he can bank rounds with top control or hunt for opportunistic chokes. Rowston's best path is keeping the fight at striking range and pushing a high pace to wear Magomedov down for a middle-round stoppage or decision.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should use his kicks to set up clinches, establish top position and pursue chokes without exhausting himself. Rowston should keep the fight standing, pressure behind measured combinations and punish tiring entries.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov: keep distance, land heavy counters and finish a hurried takedown attempt. Rowston: close distance, take Magomedov down and grind into back control or a submission.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch how easily Magomedov can secure his first takedown attempt and how much energy he expends to keep Rowston on the mat.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Rowston can stand up after the first takedown and whether Magomedov stays composed when his initial attacks fail.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Rowston gets his takedown entries without being hurt, and whether Magomedov stuffs them and lands clean power shots.
Gemini
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Magomedov, Claude: Rowston, Gemini: Magomedov).
Gemini
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Magomedov by decision (26%).
ChatGPT
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's most likely outcome.
Claude
Result: Magomedov by submission in round 1. Magomedov by submission was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rowston by decision (24%).
Gemini
8% (about 8 in 100).
ChatGPT
12% (about 12 in 100).
Claude
2% (about 2 in 100).
Gemini
KO/TKO 32%, submission 26%, decision 41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 36%, submission 31%, decision 32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%, decision 38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
2%.
ChatGPT
1%.
Gemini
Magomedov: 30%, against 28% for Rowston.
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 38%, against 29% for Rowston.
Claude
Rowston: 33%, against 27% for Magomedov.
Gemini
Magomedov: 30% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 18%). Rowston: 28% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 8%).
ChatGPT
Magomedov: 38% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 25%). Rowston: 29% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 6%).
Claude
Magomedov: 27% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 5%). Rowston: 33% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 21%).
Gemini
Magomedov is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 8%. Rowston is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 18%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 6%. Rowston is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 25%.
Claude
Magomedov is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 21%. Rowston is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 41%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 41%.
Gemini
Magomedov by decision: 26%. Rowston by decision: 15%.
ChatGPT
Magomedov by decision: 20%. Rowston by decision: 12%.
Claude
Magomedov by decision: 14%. Rowston by decision: 24%.
Gemini
Rowston wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
ChatGPT
Rowston wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Magomedov wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 6th closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
ChatGPT
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 4th most likely to end early.
Claude
Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 8th closest, and the 5th most likely to end early.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This fight is worth watching for the tense clash between Magomedov's dangerous early grappling and Rowston's relentless, momentum-building striking pace.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, the clash between Magomedov’s early danger and Rowston’s growing pressure makes this an intriguing fight with several possible momentum swings.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a clear striker-versus-grappler middleweight contest with real finishing potential on both sides.
Gemini
23%.
ChatGPT
25%.
Claude
25%.
Gemini
43%.
ChatGPT
49%.
Claude
47%.
Gemini
41%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
ChatGPT
32%. Draw or no contest: 1%.
Claude
38%. Draw or no contest: 2%.
Gemini
Round 3: 15%.
ChatGPT
Round 3: 18%.
Claude
Round 3: 13%.
Gemini
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 56%, submission 44%.
ChatGPT
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 53%, submission 47%.
Claude
Of early finishes: KO/TKO 57%, submission 43%.
Gemini
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 56%. If it goes longer: Magomedov 58%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 24%, Rowston 19%.
ChatGPT
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 63%. If it goes longer: Magomedov 54%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 31%, Rowston 18%.
Claude
If it ends in rounds 1–2: Rowston 55%. If it goes longer: Rowston 61%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Magomedov 21%, Rowston 26%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 63%, Rowston 37%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 63%, Rowston 38%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Magomedov 38%, Rowston 63%.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov could make this fight one-sided by effortlessly securing early takedowns and keeping Rowston pinned to the canvas, completely neutralizing his striking threat.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov could dominate if his first takedowns lead to sustained control and repeated submission threats. Rowston’s ability to regain his feet is the main obstacle to that scenario.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston could dominate if he gets takedowns early and holds top control, but Magomedov's power means a quick one-sided finish for him is also possible.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The most important edge is Magomedov's offensive wrestling and heavy top control against Rowston's vulnerable takedown defense, allowing Magomedov to dictate where the fight takes place.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov holds the more proven offensive wrestling against stronger opposition. That gives him the clearest route to dictate where the fight happens.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston holds the grappling and control edge, which should decide where the fight takes place.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's cardio management is the biggest X-factor, as his ability to pace himself through wrestling exchanges determines whether he cruises on top or wilts under Rowston's pressure.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest variable is how much Rowston’s defensive wrestling has improved since his loss to Torrez Finney. His subsequent success does not fully answer that question.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov's knockout power against Rowston's willingness to take risks while closing distance.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Seeing Rowston show dramatically improved takedown defense and scrambling ability would shift the outlook, as would evidence that Magomedov can sustain a high striking pace without fading.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Strong evidence that Rowston can repeatedly deny Magomedov’s takedowns without tiring would shift my forecast toward him.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Early takedown defense from Magomedov or Rowston being badly hurt in round one would move me toward Magomedov.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How well Rowston's takedown defense has developed against seasoned UFC-level wrestlers and whether Magomedov can preserve his gas tank if forced to work hard for takedowns remain key unknowns.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter’s final weight-cut condition or independently verify that both completed camp without meaningful injuries.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not verify full recent form or any camp and weight-cut issues, and the sources I found disagreed on both fighters' records.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston should win the extended striking exchanges due to his reach, output, and sustained pace from range, while Magomedov will dominate the grappling thanks to his superior wrestling, heavy top pressure, and opportunistic chokes.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly favor Rowston in prolonged striking exchanges because of his pressure, though Magomedov is dangerous early. Magomedov has the grappling edge through more proven takedowns and top control.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov should hold the edge in striking because of his power. Rowston should win the grappling because of his takedowns and submission skill.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is better placed in the later rounds because he maintains a high striking volume and builds momentum, while Magomedov has historically fatigued and become vulnerable to cumulative damage.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston has a conditional late edge if he forces a hard pace and avoids prolonged bottom position. Magomedov’s three-round wins show that a late collapse is far from inevitable.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Rowston is better placed in the later rounds because grappling control and pace usually wear down a power striker.
Gemini
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Magomedov, the biggest danger is gassing out under Rowston's relentless striking pace and getting overwhelmed by accumulation in the middle and late rounds. For Rowston, the biggest danger is failing to stop takedowns and getting trapped underneath Magomedov's heavy top control and opportunistic submission game.
ChatGPT
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov risks exhausting himself on unsuccessful attacks and getting stopped under sustained pressure. Rowston risks conceding early top position and exposing his neck while trying to escape.
Claude
AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Magomedov: getting taken down and controlled or submitted by Rowston. Rowston: walking into a heavy counter while closing distance.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Magomedov by decision, 26% here against 17% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Rowston by decision, 12% here against 19% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Rowston by decision, 24% here against 14% on average for the others.
Gemini
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Magomedov (56%).
ChatGPT
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Magomedov (58%).
Claude
Of 53 analyst picks, 23 back Magomedov and 30 back Rowston. This model picks Rowston (57%).
Gemini
On Magomedov: ChatGPT (58%). On Rowston: Claude (57%).
Gemini
Rowston by decision: from 12% (ChatGPT) to 24% (Claude).
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Magomedov by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Magomedov by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Magomedov by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (Magomedov by decision), HopperMMA (Magomedov by decision), Bedtime MMA (Magomedov by decision), Kasper MMA (Magomedov by decision) and Aniki MMA (Magomedov by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Magomedov, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
Tom Feely (Magomedov by submission in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model; this model favours Magomedov, most likely by submission (likeliest round 1).
Claude
MMA.SOCIAL (Rowston by decision), Artem MMA (Rowston by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Rowston by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Rowston by decision) and DON SMOKE MMA (Rowston by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Rowston, most likely by decision.
Gemini
It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
ChatGPT
It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Claude
It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.
Gemini
On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
ChatGPT
On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Gemini
ChatGPT, which gave the actual result 12%.
Gemini
Yes.
Claude
No.
Version not reported · 23 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Favoured: Magomedov (52%) Called it
Magomedov defeats Rowston · Sub R1
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