UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev  24 Oct 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Petr Yan defeats Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision

Win Petr Yan 21-5-0
Loss Merab Dvalishvili 21-6-0
Unanimous decision

Round 5 · 5:00

Yan vs Dvalishvili — Bantamweight Title · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Dvalishvili set a torrid pace from the opening bell, chaining takedown attempts that kept Yan defending and limited his offence through the first two rounds.

Yan found his rhythm in the third, landing more often and hurting Dvalishvili to the body, then had even more success on the feet in the fourth.

The champion dictated the fifth round and kept landing the better shots while Dvalishvili kept pressing. All three judges scored it 48-47 for Yan.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Yan

Yan's 20-5 record, 5.16 significant strikes landed per minute and 55% striking accuracy give him a clear scoring route if he can keep exchanges in his preferred striking range. UFC also lists 86% takedown defense and seven knockout wins, pairing a strong first line against Dvalishvili's wrestling with a meaningful counter threat.

Case for Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's 21-5 record comes with 5.97 takedowns per 15 minutes and 4.42 significant strikes landed per minute, a pace that can make opponents defend repeated wrestling threats while still managing his striking output. UFC's latest listed result for both men is Yan's unanimous-decision win over Dvalishvili in December 2025, so this title rematch tests whether Dvalishvili can reverse that outcome over five rounds.

What We Were Watching For

  • Can Yan's 86% takedown defense blunt Dvalishvili's 5.97 takedowns-per-15-minute pressure?
  • Whether Yan lands his 5.16 significant strikes per minute while Dvalishvili is entering or resetting.
  • How Dvalishvili balances repeated takedown attempts with his own 4.42-per-minute striking output.
  • What adjustments Dvalishvili makes after his UFC-listed decision loss to Yan as the title fight reaches later rounds.
Records & career stats
Yan vs Dvalishvili
20-5-0
Record
21-5-0
Source pending
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
Source pending
Russia
Nationality
Georgia
33
Age
35
5′8″171 cm
Height — Yan leads
5′6″168 cm
67″170 cm
Reach — Dvalishvili leads
68″173 cm
Not published
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Not published
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
24%
7
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Yan leads
3
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Dvalishvili leads
2
5.16
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Yan leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.42
4.24
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Dvalishvili leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.8
60%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Yan leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
54%
86%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Yan leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
76%
17:38
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
17:36

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight clip▶ PETR YAN AND STILL #ufc333
Before the fight (2)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Klimentijs Konevs
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Konevs conditionally backs Petr Yan to keep the belt if Yan enters UFC 333 healthy and well prepared.

“If Yan enters UFC 333 healthy and well prepared, we expect him to keep the belt.”

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 2 resolved calls).

View full track record (2 calls)
The Cage Doctor
Hear it — 11:05 Gemini YouTube analysisThe Cage Doctor on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

“i'm gonna lean Por Yan right now”

* Analyst stated a lean

Track record: winner called in 7 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 9 resolved calls).

View full track record (9 calls)
UFC Predict — Logistic Core
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Petr Yan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 36:45 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Bedtime MMA picks Petr Yan by decision.

“I'm going to go with Petr Yan by decision”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

FightIQ's snapshot explicitly predicts Petr Yan at site-displayed confidence of 60%; tier MED.

“We predict Petr Yan — 60% confident”

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Travis Herrick MMA
Hear it — 12:21 Travis Herrick MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

In this early prediction, Travis Herrick MMA leans Petr Yan and names decision as the primary result, with a late finish as an alternative.

“I think he will get this one done. Probably by a decision.”

Track record: winner called in 7 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (7 hit, 3 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 35:03 Jimbo Ortega MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Jimbo Ortega MMA picks Petr Yan by Decision. Leans Yan; calls it a tough fight

“Yan by decision. I just said a bunch of”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).

View full track record (56 calls)
Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 29:51 Lucas Tracy on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Lucas Tracy picks Petr Yan, trusting his striking and body work while acknowledging the challenge of Merab Dvalishvili's pressure.

Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Tom Feely
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Sherdog preview by Tom Feely names Yan as the pick, by decision.

“The pick is Yan by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).

View full track record (34 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 34:20 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

* Says he has trained with Dvalishvili at Syndicate and is friends with his coach; still selects Yan.

Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).

View full track record (75 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 86:15 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

AJ Devito picks Petr Yan. Sticking with Yan despite back-surgery news

“still gonna stick with Pota”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 9:25 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, citing his damage and body work and a healthier matchup profile, with a 49-46 score expectation.

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 22:06 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · KO/TKO

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

JakeGerberMMA picks Petr Yan to dominate Merab Dvalishvili and finish the trilogy by late TKO.

“I think he dominates Merab in the trilogy... and gets a late TKO stoppage via going to the body.”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
Brent Brookhouse
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 28 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.1% (28 hit, 15 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 22.2% (2 hit, 7 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).

View full track record (43 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 30:38 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

DFS By The Numbers picks Petr Yan by Decision. Hedged: 'we'll see, I've been wrong twice'.

“So, yeah, maybe Merab can go out there and attempt another 50/60 takedowns, but, um, I'm going Yan here.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
UFC Predict — CatBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Petr Yan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Main + Market
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Petr Yan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 38:06 Livid Larry MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · KO/TKO

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Livid Larry MMA picks Petr Yan by KO/TKO. Close; "I might officially lean TKO" before settling

“Yan by TKO officially. Bit unpopular”

Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 16:46 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

MMA JOEY picks Petr Yan to win the trilogy bout, favoring Yan’s striking and believing the blueprint is out for Merab Dvalishvili.

“I'm picking Pyotr Yan to win this fight.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 2:14 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

HopperoMMA picks Petr Yan to beat Merab Dvalishvili again without committing to a method or round.

“I'm going to go with Yan to beat Merab again... I think he beats Merab Dvalishvili.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
Michael Bisping
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMichael Bisping on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 24 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 61.5% (24 hit, 15 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).

View full track record (39 calls)
James Lynch
Hear it — 7:05 Gemini YouTube analysisJames Lynch on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

“overall though I got to go with the odds here and I'm going to go with Petr Yan winning a decision here”

Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).

View full track record (59 calls)
Jake Letarski
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 42 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.9% (42 hit, 27 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).

View full track record (69 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 23:33 James Blissett on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Picks Yan as too skilled for Merab; decision named as the official prediction, KO only mentioned as a possibility.

“Petr Yan via decision is my official prediction.”

Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).

View full track record (79 calls)
Garrett Kerman
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.6% (20 hit, 13 miss, across 33 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 33 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 33 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 33 resolved calls).

View full track record (33 calls)
Tom Taylor
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 6 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)
FightChoice AI ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

FightChoice's AI ensemble narrowly selects Petr Yan at 51.8% and predicts a decision, despite a split among its individual models.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (5 calls)
MMA Mathletes
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMMA Mathletes on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
Fight Genie (Claude)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Fight Genie Claude explicitly selects f_91ab95 for Yan–Dvalishvili on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.

Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
The Oracle (Blueprint MMA)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

The Oracle selects Petr Yan with a 59% win probability.

Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
KingofCrackdown5095
Hear it — 32:30 KingofCrackdown5095 on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

KingofCrackdown5095 picks Petr Yan by Decision. average confidence

“one, I got Petr Yan”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).

View full track record (63 calls)
Kunath
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisKunath on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · KO/TKO

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Danny Howard
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 12 resolved calls).

View full track record (12 calls)
Artem MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisArtem MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).

View full track record (95 calls)
Michael Mormile
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.9% (22 hit, 16 miss, across 38 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 38 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 38 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 38 resolved calls).

View full track record (38 calls)
Mike Finch
Hear it — 33:33 Mike Finch on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

* Selects Yan by decision assuming he is ready to defend takedowns after back surgery; says Merab could win if Yan is not himself.

Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
UFC Predict — LightGBM
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Petr Yan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — XGBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Petr Yan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Fight Society
Hear it — 13:03 Fight Society on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Fight Society favors Petr Yan after comparing the fighters' recent form and injury context, and later summarizes the card with Yan as the pick.

“I'm going to go Volk, Yan, Temirov.”

* The earlier discussion mentions a possible late-round finish, but this row preserves the requested explicit summary winner call only; no method or round is carried over.

Track record: winner called in 4 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (4 hit, 3 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).

View full track record (7 calls)
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Jon Litterine explicitly selects Petr Yan; no method or round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).

View full track record (124 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Fight Productions
Hear it — 47:25 Fight Productions on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Fight Productions selects Petr Yan by decision.

“So I'm going to take Pota Yan to win this one by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Brian Campbell
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · KO/TKO · Round 4

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 24 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.8% (24 hit, 19 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.0% (13 hit, 7 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 7.1% (1 hit, 13 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).

View full track record (43 calls)
Fight Genie (GPT)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Fight Genie GPT explicitly selects f_91ab95 for Yan–Dvalishvili on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Ian Undery
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 5 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 9 resolved calls).

View full track record (9 calls)
Kasper MMA
Hear it — 11:12 Gemini YouTube analysisKasper MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

“so I'm picking Yan to win by decision”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).

View full track record (42 calls)
Shakiel Mahjouri
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 25 of 46 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 54.3% (25 hit, 21 miss, across 46 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (10 hit, 10 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 9 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 46 resolved calls).

View full track record (46 calls)
Aniki MMA
Hear it — 37:09 Gemini YouTube analysisAniki MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · KO/TKO · Round 4

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

“that is my official prediction peran by fourth round KO or TKO due to doctor stoppage”

Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).

View full track record (30 calls)
Half The Battle
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisHalf The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
TonyHasDiedMMA
Hear it — 15:37 TonyHasDiedMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

TonyHasDiedMMA picks Petr Yan without committing to a method or round.

“So, give me Petr Yan to win this.”

Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).

View full track record (53 calls)
Voice of MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisVoice of MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).

View full track record (21 calls)
Steve Garcia
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisSteve Garcia on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.7% (15 hit, 14 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).

View full track record (29 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 68:33 Greedo Plays MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Greedo picks Petr Yan by decision.

* He is very split on the pick, is rooting for Merab and hopes his Yan prediction is wrong.

Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).

View full track record (72 calls)
Walk The Line MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisWalk The Line MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
Sean Sheehan
Hear it — 16:12

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

In his closing main-card recap Sheehan says he will pick Yan for the trilogy.

“I'm going to pick Yan.”

Track record: winner called in 4 of 8 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 8 resolved calls).

View full track record (8 calls)
Brandon Wise
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 21 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 48.8% (21 hit, 22 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 8.3% (1 hit, 11 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).

View full track record (43 calls)
mmadbm
Hear it — 1:05 Gemini YouTube analysismmadbm on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

“is going to batter Morab Devalish Villi”

Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (12 hit, 2 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 41 resolved calls).

View full track record (41 calls)
DON SMOKE MMA
Hear it — 6:09 DON SMOKE MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Don Smoke MMA picks Petr Yan by decision.

“I’m going to go with Petr Yan decision.”

Track record: winner called in 12 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 46.2% (12 hit, 14 miss, across 26 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 26 resolved calls).

View full track record (26 calls)
Andrew Sumian
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · KO/TKO

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Combat Press preview by Andrew Sumian names Yan, who will finish Dvalishvili with strikes before the third round; the round is not stated.

“The champion is going to make it two in a row, and this time, he will finish Dvalishvili with strikes before the third round.”

Track record: winner called in 18 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 45.0% (18 hit, 22 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).

View full track record (40 calls)
Ethan Diamandas
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).

View full track record (5 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

FIGHT//AI's UFC 333 predictions page lists Petr Yan over Merab Dvalishvili (55% site-displayed confidence); observed 2026-10-17 as the snapshot date, not an asserted original publication or lock date; no method or round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Chris Faria
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Petr Yan to win.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)
Fite Feed
Hear it — 29:49 Fite Feed on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Fite Feed picks Merab Dvalishvili by Decision.

“I'm going Merab by way of decision.”

Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).

View full track record (37 calls)
Tony Sink
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Tony Sink picks Merab Dvalishvili, per the Doc's Sports pick line.

“Tony Sink's Pick: Take Merab Dvalishvili (+139)”

Track record: winner called in 11 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (11 hit, 6 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).

View full track record (17 calls)
138 MMA
Hear it — 41:01 138 MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

138 MMA picks Merab Dvalishvili, expecting renewed takedown volume to frustrate Yan.

* He describes the matchup as extremely close to a coin flip.

Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Mate Bersenadze
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Merab Dvalishvili to win.

Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).

View full track record (52 calls)
Michael Iannone
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Merab Dvalishvili to win.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.5% (15 hit, 9 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).

View full track record (24 calls)
Combat Edge Model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Combat Edge Model’s frozen UFC 333 forecast favors Merab Dvalishvili (59%) over Petr Yan (41%); the source publishes winner probabilities, not a method or round. Observation snapshot: 2026-10-17 (not asserted as the original publication or lock date); the source labels this forecast version v0.8-2026-10-04.

Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).

View full track record (20 calls)
Tim Edwards
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Merab Dvalishvili to win.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.8% (20 hit, 14 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).

View full track record (34 calls)
Angelo Bodetti
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Merab Dvalishvili to win.

Track record: winner called in 29 of 50 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.0% (29 hit, 21 miss, across 50 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 50 resolved calls).

View full track record (50 calls)
MMA Intel
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

MMA Intel explicitly selects Merab Dvalishvili; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Merab Dvalishvili for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
MMA.SOCIAL
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

MMA.SOCIAL Staff explicitly picks Merab Dvalishvili by decision; its article gives a 60% site pick and states no round.

“MMA.SOCIAL’s pick: Dvalishvili by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Schweppe explicitly selects Dvalishvili by decision.

Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).

View full track record (99 calls)
Andy Lang
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Merab Dvalishvili to win.

Track record: winner called in 18 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.4% (18 hit, 17 miss, across 35 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 35 resolved calls).

View full track record (35 calls)
Ryan Wohl
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Merab Dvalishvili to win.

Track record: winner called in 6 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 13 resolved calls).

View full track record (13 calls)
Matthew Petela
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Combat Press preview by Matthew Petela names Dvalishvili as the pick, by unanimous decision.

“This one ends with a unanimous decision for Dvalishvili.”

Track record: winner called in 18 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 45.0% (18 hit, 22 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).

View full track record (40 calls)
Brandon K
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisBrandon K on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 44.4% (20 hit, 25 miss, across 45 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (6 hit, 8 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 45 resolved calls).

View full track record (45 calls)
The Lab Analytics
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

The Lab Analytics' explicit model pick selects Merab Dvalishvili (52% model probability; LOW confidence, LEAN tier). The page publishes no method or round. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 observed page snapshot; no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).

View full track record (25 calls)
Lyle Fitzsimmons
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Merab Dvalishvili · Dec

Fight result: Petr Yan · Decision

Selects Merab Dvalishvili to win.

Track record: winner called in 4 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)

Analyst picks: Klimentijs Konevs Hit; The Cage Doctor Hit; UFC Predict — Logistic Core Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; Travis Herrick MMA Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Lucas Tracy Hit; Tom Feely Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Michael Chiesa Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Brent Brookhouse Hit; Fite Feed Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Tony Sink Miss; UFC Predict — CatBoost Hit; UFC Predict — Main + Market Hit; 138 MMA Miss; Mate Bersenadze Miss; Livid Larry MMA Hit; Michael Iannone Miss; MMA JOEY Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Michael Bisping Hit; James Lynch Hit; Jake Letarski Hit; James Blissett Hit; Garrett Kerman Hit; Combat Edge Model Miss; Tom Taylor Hit; FightChoice AI ensemble Hit; MMA Mathletes Hit; Fight Genie (Claude) Hit; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Hit; Tim Edwards Miss; KingofCrackdown5095 Hit; Kunath Hit; Danny Howard Hit; Angelo Bodetti Miss; Artem MMA Hit; Michael Mormile Hit; Mike Finch Hit; MMA Intel Miss; UFC Predict — Ensemble Miss; UFC Predict — LightGBM Hit; UFC Predict — XGBoost Hit; Fight Society Hit; Jon Litterine Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Fight Productions Hit; Brian Campbell Hit; Fight Genie (GPT) Hit; MMA.SOCIAL Miss; Ian Undery Hit; Kasper MMA Hit; Shakiel Mahjouri Hit; Chris Schweppe Miss; Aniki MMA Hit; Half The Battle Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; Voice of MMA Hit; Steve Garcia Hit; Andy Lang Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Walk The Line MMA Hit; Sean Sheehan Hit; Brandon Wise Hit; mmadbm Hit; DON SMOKE MMA Hit; Ryan Wohl Miss; Andrew Sumian Hit; Matthew Petela Miss; Brandon K Miss; The Lab Analytics Miss; Lyle Fitzsimmons Miss; Ethan Diamandas Hit; FIGHT//AI Hit; Chris Faria Hit.

63 of 81 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Yan · Decision · R5

Closest probability Gemini put 57% on Yan.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
56% Yan
43% Dvalishvili
PickYan · DecisionActualYan · Decision · R5
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
52% Yan
47% Dvalishvili
PickYan · DecisionActualYan · Decision · R5
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
57% Yan
42% Dvalishvili
PickYan · DecisionActualYan · Decision · R5
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Yan

    Most likely: Yan by decision, about 44 in 100

    Win chance: Yan 56%, Dvalishvili 43%, draw or no contest 1%.

    gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Yan

    Most likely: Yan by decision, about 44 in 100

    Win chance: Yan 52%, Dvalishvili 47%, draw or no contest 1%.

    claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct

    Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Yan

    Most likely: Yan by decision, about 47 in 100

    Win chance: Yan 57%, Dvalishvili 42%, draw or no contest 1%.

    Version not reported · 23 Oct

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

3 of 3 models pick Yan.

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 43%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Yan: 52% (about 52 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 47%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Yan: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Claude

    Yan by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Yan by decision: 47% (about 47 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Yan by decision (44%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (38%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (10%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan demonstrated a workable answer in the rematch: defend repeated shots and land more damaging strikes. Both previous meetings lasted five rounds.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling already overwhelmed Yan once, and victories over elite opposition establish that his pressure can work across five rounds.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan's body attacks and accurate combinations offer the clearest finishing route, particularly if failed takedowns leave Dvalishvili increasingly exposed.

  • Claude

    1. Yan by decision (44%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (42%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (7%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan won the rematch on the cards, and his striking and takedown defense should edge a close, competitive five-rounder.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume can win rounds on control and output across five rounds.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan has the power to hurt Merab when he closes distance, though Merab has rarely been stopped.

  • Gemini

    1. Yan by decision (47%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (37%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (9%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan solved Dvalishvili's wrestling in their rematch by stuffing nearly every takedown and landing cleaner counters across five rounds. His technical boxing and superior efficiency make another decision win the most likely result.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Dvalishvili dominated their first meeting with relentless chain-wrestling and unmatched cardio over five rounds. If he adjusts his entries and re-establishes cage control, he can outwork Yan on volume to take the scorecards.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan builds momentum in championship rounds and targets the head and body with crisp combinations as opponents tire. Forcing Dvalishvili into extended striking exchanges creates late stoppage opportunities.
How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Yan's 56% win chance.

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Yan's 52% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Yan's 57% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 17%. Decision: 82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 16%. Decision: 84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

How does Yan win?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan wins 56%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 44%.

  • Claude

    Yan wins 52%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 44%.

  • Gemini

    Yan wins 57%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%, decision 47%.

How does Dvalishvili win?

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili wins 43%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 38%.

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili wins 47%: KO/TKO 2%, submission 3%, decision 42%.

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili wins 42%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 37%.

The fight in one sentence

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Yan to defend enough takedowns and land the cleaner, heavier strikes over five competitive rounds.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A tight, high-pace five-round fight where Merab's pressure and takedowns are met by Yan's sharper striking and takedown defense, likely going the distance.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Petr Yan is expected to stuff Merab Dvalishvili's takedown attempts and outland him with crisp, efficient boxing counters to win a five-round decision.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, rounds 4 and 5 are equally likely (25% of finishes each, 4% overall each).

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (22% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 3%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 4 is most likely (25% of finishes). Chance of a round-4 finish overall: 4%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 56% (from 56%), Dvalishvili 43% (from 43%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Repeated wrestling exchanges will test whether Yan can defend without sacrificing his offense. If he keeps space to punch, his reads and body attacks should become more influential.

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 52% (from 52%), Dvalishvili 47% (from 47%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab's pace and wrestling usually accumulate as rounds go on, but Yan has had time to adjust and land cleaner shots, so the middle rounds decide who controls the pace.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 57% (from 57%), Dvalishvili 42% (from 42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, Petr Yan typically finishes his reads and begins firing sharper combinations to the head and body while Dvalishvili increases his wrestling pace.

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili can regain control by disguising his entries with strikes, chaining attempts and making Yan defend repeatedly before he can set his feet.

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab wins by constant forward pressure, chain wrestling and clinch work, banking rounds on control time and wearing Yan down.

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab Dvalishvili is most likely to win by chaining takedown attempts relentlessly and pinning Yan against the fence to win the volume battle on the judges' scorecards.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should hold the center, punish entries with body shots and resume striking immediately after defending takedowns. Dvalishvili should mix striking into relentless wrestling and turn completed takedowns into sustained offense.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan: use his jab, counters and strong takedown defense to win the striking exchanges and stuff the shots. Merab: force a relentless pace, chain takedowns and fight on the fence to drain Yan.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Petr Yan's best path to victory is defending takedowns in open space and punishing Dvalishvili's entries with clean boxing combinations across five rounds. Merab Dvalishvili's best path to victory is mixing strikes into constant chain-wrestling to smother Yan's offense along the cage and win on volume.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Yan gets back to striking immediately after defending shots, and whether Dvalishvili can connect his first entry to productive follow-up attempts.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Merab's first takedown attempts succeed and whether Yan's counter punches land cleanly as Merab closes the distance.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Yan can deny Dvalishvili's initial takedown entries in the center of the cage and avoid getting pinned against the fence for extended stretches.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Yan.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • All models

    Result: Yan by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Claude

    44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Gemini

    47% (about 47 in 100).

More questions (38)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 4%, decision 82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 9%, submission 5%, decision 86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 12%, submission 4%, decision 84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • All models

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 12%, against 5% for Dvalishvili.

  • Claude

    Yan: 8%, against 6% for Dvalishvili.

  • Gemini

    Yan: 10%, against 6% for Dvalishvili.

Can Yan get the finish? Can Dvalishvili?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Dvalishvili: 5% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%).

  • Claude

    Yan: 8% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%). Dvalishvili: 6% (KO/TKO 2%, submission 3%).

  • Gemini

    Yan: 10% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%). Dvalishvili: 6% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.

  • Claude

    Yan is knocked out in 2% and submitted in 3%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%.

  • Gemini

    Yan is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 52% vs 47%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Yan by decision: 44%. Dvalishvili by decision: 38%.

  • Claude

    Yan by decision: 44%. Dvalishvili by decision: 42%.

  • Gemini

    Yan by decision: 47%. Dvalishvili by decision: 37%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 5th closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their contrasting styles and dramatically different previous meetings make this a compelling tactical trilogy.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a trilogy between two elite bantamweights with a real stylistic clash of pressure wrestling against crisp boxing, and the series is tied.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This trilogy fight is well worth watching because it pits two elite bantamweights with contrasting styles and deep familiarity against each other over five high-paced rounds.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • ChatGPT

    2%.

  • Claude

    3%.

  • Gemini

    2%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • ChatGPT

    5%.

  • Claude

    6%.

  • Gemini

    4%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • ChatGPT

    Round 5: 4%.

  • Claude

    Round 5: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Round 5: 4%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 78%, submission 22%.

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 70%, submission 30%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 78%, submission 22%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 73%. If it goes longer: Yan 56%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 3%, Dvalishvili 1%.

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 63%. If it goes longer: Yan 52%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 4%, Dvalishvili 2%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 61%. If it goes longer: Yan 57%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 3%, Dvalishvili 2%.

What if 3 questions

If it reaches round 4, who is favoured?

  • ChatGPT

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 55% (from 56%), Dvalishvili 44% (from 43%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan has a slight conditional edge if his takedown defense holds, having finished their rematch strongly. Dvalishvili is better placed if sustained wrestling has kept Yan reacting.

  • Claude

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 51% (from 52%), Dvalishvili 48% (from 47%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab is slightly better placed on cardio, but Yan showed he can stay sharp late, so it is close with a small edge to Merab if his nose is not a problem.

  • Gemini

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 56% (from 57%), Dvalishvili 43% (from 42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Both fighters excel late, but Yan holds a slight edge in the championship rounds if he keeps the fight standing, as his cumulative body work and counter accuracy build momentum as opponents tire.

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 54%, Dvalishvili 46%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 52%, Dvalishvili 49%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 56%, Dvalishvili 44%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili could dominate if his pressure again suppresses Yan's output. Yan could pull away if he repeatedly denies entries and makes Dvalishvili absorb damaging counters.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Yan reads Merab's entries and hurts him early, or if Merab's takedowns land repeatedly and keep Yan pinned, either man could take most rounds.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The fight could turn one-sided for Yan if he effortlessly stuffs every takedown and picks Dvalishvili apart at range, or for Dvalishvili if he traps Yan on the fence with nonstop wrestling pressure.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan holds the cleaner striking edge, especially when he can attack the body without being trapped in prolonged wrestling exchanges.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The key edge is Yan's takedown defense and counter striking against Merab's pace and volume, and it slightly favors the champion.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan holds the most important edge with his superior striking efficiency and takedown defense, which allowed him to neutralize Dvalishvili's grappling in their second meeting.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili's adjustments after a long preparation period are the biggest variable: better entries could change how much energy his pressure costs Yan.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab's reported broken nose and how it affects his breathing and cardio, along with Yan's tendency to start slowly.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is what tactical adjustments Dvalishvili makes to his wrestling setups after having nearly all of his takedown attempts stuffed in their rematch.

What would change the model's mind?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reliable evidence that Dvalishvili has resolved his reported knee issues and substantially improved his entries would move me toward him. A compromised weight cut would move me toward Yan.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Signs of Merab's nose hurting his cardio or Yan being taken down early and often would shift my view toward the other side.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Knowing that Yan was dealing with a physical injury that compromises his mobility or takedown defense would shift the forecast toward Dvalishvili's relentless grappling pace.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not independently establish Dvalishvili's current knee condition or how well he will recover from his weight cut.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How well Merab's nose has healed, and how much Yan has improved his starts since the second fight.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Neither fighter's exact physical condition coming out of training camp nor any undisclosed nagging injuries could be established ahead of fight night.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should win the striking through accuracy, combinations and body work. Dvalishvili should lead the grappling through repeated entries, although Yan can limit their payoff.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should win the striking thanks to sharper, more powerful boxing, while Merab should win the grappling through volume and persistent chain wrestling.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan will win the striking due to his tighter boxing defense and cleaner counter combinations, while Dvalishvili holds the grappling advantage through sheer wrestling volume and top pressure.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly prefer Yan late if he keeps the wrestling exchanges brief, because his body work and adjustments can accumulate. Dvalishvili's endurance makes that advantage fragile.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab is slightly better placed in later rounds because of his pace and conditioning, though Yan has shown he can keep pace deep.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan is slightly better placed in the later rounds because his defensive footwork and counter-striking become increasingly accurate after he downloads his opponent's timing.

Biggest danger for Yan, and for Dvalishvili

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan risks spending entire rounds defending wrestling and producing too little meaningful offense. Dvalishvili risks repeating unsuccessful entries while absorbing body shots and cleaner combinations.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan: falling behind early by being pushed to the fence and taken down while he is still reading Merab. Merab: walking into Yan's counter left hook or straight punches while closing distance.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest danger for Yan is getting backed into the fence and overwhelmed by Dvalishvili's exhausting chain-wrestling pace without finding space to counter. The biggest danger for Dvalishvili is getting his takedowns stuffed repeatedly and absorbing clean, damaging combinations in extended striking exchanges.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Yan by decision, 44% here against 46% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Dvalishvili by decision, 42% here against 37% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Dvalishvili by decision, 37% here against 40% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (56%).

  • Claude

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (52%).

  • Gemini

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (57%).

Which model is most confident on Yan, and which on Dvalishvili?

  • All models

    On Yan: Gemini (57%). On Dvalishvili: Claude (47%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Dvalishvili by decision: from 37% (Gemini) to 42% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • All models

    The MMA Guru (Yan by decision), DON SMOKE MMA (Yan by decision), Fight Productions (Yan by decision), James Lynch (Yan by decision), Bedtime MMA (Yan by decision), Travis Herrick MMA (Yan by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Yan by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Yan by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Yan by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Yan by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Yan by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Yan by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Yan by decision), James Blissett (Yan by decision), Tom Feely (Yan by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Yan by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Yan by decision), Michael Mormile (Yan by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Yan by decision), Andrew Richardson (Yan by decision), Ethan Diamandas (Yan by decision), Brandon Wise (Yan by decision), Garrett Kerman (Yan by decision), Danny Howard (Yan by decision), Mike Finch (Yan by decision) and Kasper MMA (Yan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Yan, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 47%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Yan

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Yan by decision, about 44 in 100

Win chance: Yan 56%, Dvalishvili 43%, draw or no contest 1%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Yan by decision44%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan demonstrated a workable answer in the rematch: defend repeated shots and land more damaging strikes. Both previous meetings lasted five rounds.

  2. Dvalishvili by decision38%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling already overwhelmed Yan once, and victories over elite opposition establish that his pressure can work across five rounds.

  3. Yan by KO/TKO10%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan's body attacks and accurate combinations offer the clearest finishing route, particularly if failed takedowns leave Dvalishvili increasingly exposed.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Yan KO/TKO 1%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO <1%, submission <1%.
  2. Round 2: Yan KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO <1%, submission <1%.
  3. Round 3: Yan KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  4. Round 4: Yan KO/TKO 3%, submission 1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  5. Round 5: Yan KO/TKO 2%, submission 1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  6. Decision: Yan 44%; Dvalishvili 38%.

Draw or no contest: 1%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in ChatGPT's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3R4R5Decision
Yan KO/TKO1%2%2%3%2%—
Yan Submission<1%<1%<1%1%1%—
Yan Decision—————44%
Dvalishvili KO/TKO<1%<1%1%1%1%—
Dvalishvili Submission<1%<1%1%1%1%—
Dvalishvili Decision—————38%
Draw or no contest1%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 43%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yan: 52% (about 52 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 47%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Yan: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Yan by decision: 47% (about 47 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Yan by decision (44%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (38%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (10%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan demonstrated a workable answer in the rematch: defend repeated shots and land more damaging strikes. Both previous meetings lasted five rounds.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling already overwhelmed Yan once, and victories over elite opposition establish that his pressure can work across five rounds.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan's body attacks and accurate combinations offer the clearest finishing route, particularly if failed takedowns leave Dvalishvili increasingly exposed.
Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Yan by decision (44%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (42%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (7%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan won the rematch on the cards, and his striking and takedown defense should edge a close, competitive five-rounder.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume can win rounds on control and output across five rounds.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan has the power to hurt Merab when he closes distance, though Merab has rarely been stopped.

  • Gemini

    1. Yan by decision (47%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (37%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (9%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan solved Dvalishvili's wrestling in their rematch by stuffing nearly every takedown and landing cleaner counters across five rounds. His technical boxing and superior efficiency make another decision win the most likely result.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Dvalishvili dominated their first meeting with relentless chain-wrestling and unmatched cardio over five rounds. If he adjusts his entries and re-establishes cage control, he can outwork Yan on volume to take the scorecards.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan builds momentum in championship rounds and targets the head and body with crisp combinations as opponents tire. Forcing Dvalishvili into extended striking exchanges creates late stoppage opportunities.
How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Yan's 56% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Yan's 52% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Yan's 57% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 17%. Decision: 82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 16%. Decision: 84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

How does Yan win?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan wins 56%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 44%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yan wins 52%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 44%.

  • Gemini

    Yan wins 57%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%, decision 47%.

How does Dvalishvili win?

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili wins 43%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 38%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili wins 47%: KO/TKO 2%, submission 3%, decision 42%.

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili wins 42%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 37%.

The fight in one sentence

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Yan to defend enough takedowns and land the cleaner, heavier strikes over five competitive rounds.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A tight, high-pace five-round fight where Merab's pressure and takedowns are met by Yan's sharper striking and takedown defense, likely going the distance.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Petr Yan is expected to stuff Merab Dvalishvili's takedown attempts and outland him with crisp, efficient boxing counters to win a five-round decision.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, rounds 4 and 5 are equally likely (25% of finishes each, 4% overall each).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (22% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 3%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 4 is most likely (25% of finishes). Chance of a round-4 finish overall: 4%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 56% (from 56%), Dvalishvili 43% (from 43%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Repeated wrestling exchanges will test whether Yan can defend without sacrificing his offense. If he keeps space to punch, his reads and body attacks should become more influential.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 52% (from 52%), Dvalishvili 47% (from 47%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab's pace and wrestling usually accumulate as rounds go on, but Yan has had time to adjust and land cleaner shots, so the middle rounds decide who controls the pace.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 57% (from 57%), Dvalishvili 42% (from 42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, Petr Yan typically finishes his reads and begins firing sharper combinations to the head and body while Dvalishvili increases his wrestling pace.

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili can regain control by disguising his entries with strikes, chaining attempts and making Yan defend repeatedly before he can set his feet.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab wins by constant forward pressure, chain wrestling and clinch work, banking rounds on control time and wearing Yan down.

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab Dvalishvili is most likely to win by chaining takedown attempts relentlessly and pinning Yan against the fence to win the volume battle on the judges' scorecards.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should hold the center, punish entries with body shots and resume striking immediately after defending takedowns. Dvalishvili should mix striking into relentless wrestling and turn completed takedowns into sustained offense.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan: use his jab, counters and strong takedown defense to win the striking exchanges and stuff the shots. Merab: force a relentless pace, chain takedowns and fight on the fence to drain Yan.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Petr Yan's best path to victory is defending takedowns in open space and punishing Dvalishvili's entries with clean boxing combinations across five rounds. Merab Dvalishvili's best path to victory is mixing strikes into constant chain-wrestling to smother Yan's offense along the cage and win on volume.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Yan gets back to striking immediately after defending shots, and whether Dvalishvili can connect his first entry to productive follow-up attempts.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Merab's first takedown attempts succeed and whether Yan's counter punches land cleanly as Merab closes the distance.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Yan can deny Dvalishvili's initial takedown entries in the center of the cage and avoid getting pinned against the fence for extended stretches.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Yan.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Yan by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    44% (about 44 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    47% (about 47 in 100).

More questions (38)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 4%, decision 82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 9%, submission 5%, decision 86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 12%, submission 4%, decision 84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 12%, against 5% for Dvalishvili.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yan: 8%, against 6% for Dvalishvili.

  • Gemini

    Yan: 10%, against 6% for Dvalishvili.

Can Yan get the finish? Can Dvalishvili?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Dvalishvili: 5% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yan: 8% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%). Dvalishvili: 6% (KO/TKO 2%, submission 3%).

  • Gemini

    Yan: 10% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%). Dvalishvili: 6% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Yan is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yan is knocked out in 2% and submitted in 3%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%.

  • Gemini

    Yan is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 52% vs 47%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Yan by decision: 44%. Dvalishvili by decision: 38%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yan by decision: 44%. Dvalishvili by decision: 42%.

  • Gemini

    Yan by decision: 47%. Dvalishvili by decision: 37%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 5th closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their contrasting styles and dramatically different previous meetings make this a compelling tactical trilogy.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a trilogy between two elite bantamweights with a real stylistic clash of pressure wrestling against crisp boxing, and the series is tied.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This trilogy fight is well worth watching because it pits two elite bantamweights with contrasting styles and deep familiarity against each other over five high-paced rounds.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • ChatGPT

    2%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    3%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • ChatGPT

    5%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    6%.

  • Gemini

    4%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • ChatGPT

    Round 5: 4%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Round 5: 2%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 78%, submission 22%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 70%, submission 30%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 73%. If it goes longer: Yan 56%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 3%, Dvalishvili 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 63%. If it goes longer: Yan 52%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 4%, Dvalishvili 2%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 61%. If it goes longer: Yan 57%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 3%, Dvalishvili 2%.

What if 3 questions

If it reaches round 4, who is favoured?

  • ChatGPT

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 55% (from 56%), Dvalishvili 44% (from 43%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan has a slight conditional edge if his takedown defense holds, having finished their rematch strongly. Dvalishvili is better placed if sustained wrestling has kept Yan reacting.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 51% (from 52%), Dvalishvili 48% (from 47%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab is slightly better placed on cardio, but Yan showed he can stay sharp late, so it is close with a small edge to Merab if his nose is not a problem.

  • Gemini

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 56% (from 57%), Dvalishvili 43% (from 42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Both fighters excel late, but Yan holds a slight edge in the championship rounds if he keeps the fight standing, as his cumulative body work and counter accuracy build momentum as opponents tire.

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 54%, Dvalishvili 46%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 52%, Dvalishvili 49%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 56%, Dvalishvili 44%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili could dominate if his pressure again suppresses Yan's output. Yan could pull away if he repeatedly denies entries and makes Dvalishvili absorb damaging counters.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Yan reads Merab's entries and hurts him early, or if Merab's takedowns land repeatedly and keep Yan pinned, either man could take most rounds.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The fight could turn one-sided for Yan if he effortlessly stuffs every takedown and picks Dvalishvili apart at range, or for Dvalishvili if he traps Yan on the fence with nonstop wrestling pressure.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan holds the cleaner striking edge, especially when he can attack the body without being trapped in prolonged wrestling exchanges.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The key edge is Yan's takedown defense and counter striking against Merab's pace and volume, and it slightly favors the champion.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan holds the most important edge with his superior striking efficiency and takedown defense, which allowed him to neutralize Dvalishvili's grappling in their second meeting.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili's adjustments after a long preparation period are the biggest variable: better entries could change how much energy his pressure costs Yan.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab's reported broken nose and how it affects his breathing and cardio, along with Yan's tendency to start slowly.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is what tactical adjustments Dvalishvili makes to his wrestling setups after having nearly all of his takedown attempts stuffed in their rematch.

What would change the model's mind?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reliable evidence that Dvalishvili has resolved his reported knee issues and substantially improved his entries would move me toward him. A compromised weight cut would move me toward Yan.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Signs of Merab's nose hurting his cardio or Yan being taken down early and often would shift my view toward the other side.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Knowing that Yan was dealing with a physical injury that compromises his mobility or takedown defense would shift the forecast toward Dvalishvili's relentless grappling pace.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not independently establish Dvalishvili's current knee condition or how well he will recover from his weight cut.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How well Merab's nose has healed, and how much Yan has improved his starts since the second fight.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Neither fighter's exact physical condition coming out of training camp nor any undisclosed nagging injuries could be established ahead of fight night.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should win the striking through accuracy, combinations and body work. Dvalishvili should lead the grappling through repeated entries, although Yan can limit their payoff.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should win the striking thanks to sharper, more powerful boxing, while Merab should win the grappling through volume and persistent chain wrestling.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan will win the striking due to his tighter boxing defense and cleaner counter combinations, while Dvalishvili holds the grappling advantage through sheer wrestling volume and top pressure.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly prefer Yan late if he keeps the wrestling exchanges brief, because his body work and adjustments can accumulate. Dvalishvili's endurance makes that advantage fragile.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab is slightly better placed in later rounds because of his pace and conditioning, though Yan has shown he can keep pace deep.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan is slightly better placed in the later rounds because his defensive footwork and counter-striking become increasingly accurate after he downloads his opponent's timing.

Biggest danger for Yan, and for Dvalishvili

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan risks spending entire rounds defending wrestling and producing too little meaningful offense. Dvalishvili risks repeating unsuccessful entries while absorbing body shots and cleaner combinations.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan: falling behind early by being pushed to the fence and taken down while he is still reading Merab. Merab: walking into Yan's counter left hook or straight punches while closing distance.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest danger for Yan is getting backed into the fence and overwhelmed by Dvalishvili's exhausting chain-wrestling pace without finding space to counter. The biggest danger for Dvalishvili is getting his takedowns stuffed repeatedly and absorbing clean, damaging combinations in extended striking exchanges.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Yan by decision, 44% here against 46% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Dvalishvili by decision, 42% here against 37% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Dvalishvili by decision, 37% here against 40% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (56%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (52%).

  • Gemini

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (57%).

Which model is most confident on Yan, and which on Dvalishvili?

  • ChatGPT

    On Yan: Gemini (57%). On Dvalishvili: Claude (47%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili by decision: from 37% (Gemini) to 42% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    The MMA Guru (Yan by decision), DON SMOKE MMA (Yan by decision), Fight Productions (Yan by decision), James Lynch (Yan by decision), Bedtime MMA (Yan by decision), Travis Herrick MMA (Yan by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Yan by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Yan by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Yan by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Yan by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Yan by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Yan by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Yan by decision), James Blissett (Yan by decision), Tom Feely (Yan by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Yan by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Yan by decision), Michael Mormile (Yan by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Yan by decision), Andrew Richardson (Yan by decision), Ethan Diamandas (Yan by decision), Brandon Wise (Yan by decision), Garrett Kerman (Yan by decision), Danny Howard (Yan by decision), Mike Finch (Yan by decision) and Kasper MMA (Yan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Yan, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 47%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Yan

Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Yan by decision, about 44 in 100

Win chance: Yan 52%, Dvalishvili 47%, draw or no contest 1%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Yan by decision44%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan won the rematch on the cards, and his striking and takedown defense should edge a close, competitive five-rounder.

  2. Dvalishvili by decision42%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume can win rounds on control and output across five rounds.

  3. Yan by KO/TKO7%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan has the power to hurt Merab when he closes distance, though Merab has rarely been stopped.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Yan KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  2. Round 2: Yan KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  3. Round 3: Yan KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  4. Round 4: Yan KO/TKO 1%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO <1%, submission 1%.
  5. Round 5: Yan KO/TKO 1%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO <1%, submission 1%.
  6. Decision: Yan 44%; Dvalishvili 42%.

Draw or no contest: 1%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in Claude's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3R4R5Decision
Yan KO/TKO2%2%2%1%1%—
Yan Submission<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%—
Yan Decision—————44%
Dvalishvili KO/TKO1%1%1%<1%<1%—
Dvalishvili Submission1%1%1%1%1%—
Dvalishvili Decision—————42%
Draw or no contest1%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Yan: 52% (about 52 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 47%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 43%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Yan: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Yan by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Yan by decision: 47% (about 47 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Yan by decision (44%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (42%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (7%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan won the rematch on the cards, and his striking and takedown defense should edge a close, competitive five-rounder.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume can win rounds on control and output across five rounds.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan has the power to hurt Merab when he closes distance, though Merab has rarely been stopped.
Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Yan by decision (44%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (38%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (10%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan demonstrated a workable answer in the rematch: defend repeated shots and land more damaging strikes. Both previous meetings lasted five rounds.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling already overwhelmed Yan once, and victories over elite opposition establish that his pressure can work across five rounds.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan's body attacks and accurate combinations offer the clearest finishing route, particularly if failed takedowns leave Dvalishvili increasingly exposed.

  • Gemini

    1. Yan by decision (47%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (37%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (9%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan solved Dvalishvili's wrestling in their rematch by stuffing nearly every takedown and landing cleaner counters across five rounds. His technical boxing and superior efficiency make another decision win the most likely result.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Dvalishvili dominated their first meeting with relentless chain-wrestling and unmatched cardio over five rounds. If he adjusts his entries and re-establishes cage control, he can outwork Yan on volume to take the scorecards.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan builds momentum in championship rounds and targets the head and body with crisp combinations as opponents tire. Forcing Dvalishvili into extended striking exchanges creates late stoppage opportunities.
How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Yan's 52% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Yan's 56% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Yan's 57% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 17%. Decision: 82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 16%. Decision: 84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

How does Yan win?

  • Claude

    Yan wins 52%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 44%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan wins 56%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 44%.

  • Gemini

    Yan wins 57%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%, decision 47%.

How does Dvalishvili win?

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili wins 47%: KO/TKO 2%, submission 3%, decision 42%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili wins 43%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 38%.

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili wins 42%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 37%.

The fight in one sentence

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A tight, high-pace five-round fight where Merab's pressure and takedowns are met by Yan's sharper striking and takedown defense, likely going the distance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Yan to defend enough takedowns and land the cleaner, heavier strikes over five competitive rounds.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Petr Yan is expected to stuff Merab Dvalishvili's takedown attempts and outland him with crisp, efficient boxing counters to win a five-round decision.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (22% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, rounds 4 and 5 are equally likely (25% of finishes each, 4% overall each).

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 4 is most likely (25% of finishes). Chance of a round-4 finish overall: 4%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 52% (from 52%), Dvalishvili 47% (from 47%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab's pace and wrestling usually accumulate as rounds go on, but Yan has had time to adjust and land cleaner shots, so the middle rounds decide who controls the pace.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 56% (from 56%), Dvalishvili 43% (from 43%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Repeated wrestling exchanges will test whether Yan can defend without sacrificing his offense. If he keeps space to punch, his reads and body attacks should become more influential.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 57% (from 57%), Dvalishvili 42% (from 42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, Petr Yan typically finishes his reads and begins firing sharper combinations to the head and body while Dvalishvili increases his wrestling pace.

What is the upset path?

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab wins by constant forward pressure, chain wrestling and clinch work, banking rounds on control time and wearing Yan down.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili can regain control by disguising his entries with strikes, chaining attempts and making Yan defend repeatedly before he can set his feet.

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab Dvalishvili is most likely to win by chaining takedown attempts relentlessly and pinning Yan against the fence to win the volume battle on the judges' scorecards.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan: use his jab, counters and strong takedown defense to win the striking exchanges and stuff the shots. Merab: force a relentless pace, chain takedowns and fight on the fence to drain Yan.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should hold the center, punish entries with body shots and resume striking immediately after defending takedowns. Dvalishvili should mix striking into relentless wrestling and turn completed takedowns into sustained offense.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Petr Yan's best path to victory is defending takedowns in open space and punishing Dvalishvili's entries with clean boxing combinations across five rounds. Merab Dvalishvili's best path to victory is mixing strikes into constant chain-wrestling to smother Yan's offense along the cage and win on volume.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Merab's first takedown attempts succeed and whether Yan's counter punches land cleanly as Merab closes the distance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Yan gets back to striking immediately after defending shots, and whether Dvalishvili can connect his first entry to productive follow-up attempts.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Yan can deny Dvalishvili's initial takedown entries in the center of the cage and avoid getting pinned against the fence for extended stretches.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Yan.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Yan by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    44% (about 44 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    47% (about 47 in 100).

More questions (38)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 9%, submission 5%, decision 86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 4%, decision 82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 12%, submission 4%, decision 84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • Claude

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Yan: 8%, against 6% for Dvalishvili.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 12%, against 5% for Dvalishvili.

  • Gemini

    Yan: 10%, against 6% for Dvalishvili.

Can Yan get the finish? Can Dvalishvili?

  • Claude

    Yan: 8% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%). Dvalishvili: 6% (KO/TKO 2%, submission 3%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Dvalishvili: 5% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%).

  • Gemini

    Yan: 10% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%). Dvalishvili: 6% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Yan is knocked out in 2% and submitted in 3%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.

  • Gemini

    Yan is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 1%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 52% vs 47%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Claude

    Yan by decision: 44%. Dvalishvili by decision: 42%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan by decision: 44%. Dvalishvili by decision: 38%.

  • Gemini

    Yan by decision: 47%. Dvalishvili by decision: 37%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 5th closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a trilogy between two elite bantamweights with a real stylistic clash of pressure wrestling against crisp boxing, and the series is tied.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their contrasting styles and dramatically different previous meetings make this a compelling tactical trilogy.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This trilogy fight is well worth watching because it pits two elite bantamweights with contrasting styles and deep familiarity against each other over five high-paced rounds.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • Claude

    3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    2%.

  • Gemini

    2%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • Claude

    6%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    5%.

  • Gemini

    4%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • Claude

    Round 5: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Round 5: 4%.

  • Gemini

    Round 5: 4%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 70%, submission 30%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 78%, submission 22%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 78%, submission 22%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 63%. If it goes longer: Yan 52%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 4%, Dvalishvili 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 73%. If it goes longer: Yan 56%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 3%, Dvalishvili 1%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 61%. If it goes longer: Yan 57%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 3%, Dvalishvili 2%.

What if 3 questions

If it reaches round 4, who is favoured?

  • Claude

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 51% (from 52%), Dvalishvili 48% (from 47%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab is slightly better placed on cardio, but Yan showed he can stay sharp late, so it is close with a small edge to Merab if his nose is not a problem.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 55% (from 56%), Dvalishvili 44% (from 43%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan has a slight conditional edge if his takedown defense holds, having finished their rematch strongly. Dvalishvili is better placed if sustained wrestling has kept Yan reacting.

  • Gemini

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 56% (from 57%), Dvalishvili 43% (from 42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Both fighters excel late, but Yan holds a slight edge in the championship rounds if he keeps the fight standing, as his cumulative body work and counter accuracy build momentum as opponents tire.

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 52%, Dvalishvili 49%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 54%, Dvalishvili 46%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 56%, Dvalishvili 44%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Yan reads Merab's entries and hurts him early, or if Merab's takedowns land repeatedly and keep Yan pinned, either man could take most rounds.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili could dominate if his pressure again suppresses Yan's output. Yan could pull away if he repeatedly denies entries and makes Dvalishvili absorb damaging counters.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The fight could turn one-sided for Yan if he effortlessly stuffs every takedown and picks Dvalishvili apart at range, or for Dvalishvili if he traps Yan on the fence with nonstop wrestling pressure.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The key edge is Yan's takedown defense and counter striking against Merab's pace and volume, and it slightly favors the champion.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan holds the cleaner striking edge, especially when he can attack the body without being trapped in prolonged wrestling exchanges.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan holds the most important edge with his superior striking efficiency and takedown defense, which allowed him to neutralize Dvalishvili's grappling in their second meeting.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab's reported broken nose and how it affects his breathing and cardio, along with Yan's tendency to start slowly.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili's adjustments after a long preparation period are the biggest variable: better entries could change how much energy his pressure costs Yan.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is what tactical adjustments Dvalishvili makes to his wrestling setups after having nearly all of his takedown attempts stuffed in their rematch.

What would change the model's mind?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Signs of Merab's nose hurting his cardio or Yan being taken down early and often would shift my view toward the other side.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reliable evidence that Dvalishvili has resolved his reported knee issues and substantially improved his entries would move me toward him. A compromised weight cut would move me toward Yan.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Knowing that Yan was dealing with a physical injury that compromises his mobility or takedown defense would shift the forecast toward Dvalishvili's relentless grappling pace.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How well Merab's nose has healed, and how much Yan has improved his starts since the second fight.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not independently establish Dvalishvili's current knee condition or how well he will recover from his weight cut.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Neither fighter's exact physical condition coming out of training camp nor any undisclosed nagging injuries could be established ahead of fight night.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should win the striking thanks to sharper, more powerful boxing, while Merab should win the grappling through volume and persistent chain wrestling.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should win the striking through accuracy, combinations and body work. Dvalishvili should lead the grappling through repeated entries, although Yan can limit their payoff.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan will win the striking due to his tighter boxing defense and cleaner counter combinations, while Dvalishvili holds the grappling advantage through sheer wrestling volume and top pressure.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab is slightly better placed in later rounds because of his pace and conditioning, though Yan has shown he can keep pace deep.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly prefer Yan late if he keeps the wrestling exchanges brief, because his body work and adjustments can accumulate. Dvalishvili's endurance makes that advantage fragile.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan is slightly better placed in the later rounds because his defensive footwork and counter-striking become increasingly accurate after he downloads his opponent's timing.

Biggest danger for Yan, and for Dvalishvili

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan: falling behind early by being pushed to the fence and taken down while he is still reading Merab. Merab: walking into Yan's counter left hook or straight punches while closing distance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan risks spending entire rounds defending wrestling and producing too little meaningful offense. Dvalishvili risks repeating unsuccessful entries while absorbing body shots and cleaner combinations.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest danger for Yan is getting backed into the fence and overwhelmed by Dvalishvili's exhausting chain-wrestling pace without finding space to counter. The biggest danger for Dvalishvili is getting his takedowns stuffed repeatedly and absorbing clean, damaging combinations in extended striking exchanges.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Dvalishvili by decision, 42% here against 37% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Yan by decision, 44% here against 46% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Dvalishvili by decision, 37% here against 40% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (52%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (56%).

  • Gemini

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (57%).

Which model is most confident on Yan, and which on Dvalishvili?

  • Claude

    On Yan: Gemini (57%). On Dvalishvili: Claude (47%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili by decision: from 37% (Gemini) to 42% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    The MMA Guru (Yan by decision), DON SMOKE MMA (Yan by decision), Fight Productions (Yan by decision), James Lynch (Yan by decision), Bedtime MMA (Yan by decision), Travis Herrick MMA (Yan by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Yan by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Yan by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Yan by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Yan by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Yan by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Yan by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Yan by decision), James Blissett (Yan by decision), Tom Feely (Yan by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Yan by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Yan by decision), Michael Mormile (Yan by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Yan by decision), Andrew Richardson (Yan by decision), Ethan Diamandas (Yan by decision), Brandon Wise (Yan by decision), Garrett Kerman (Yan by decision), Danny Howard (Yan by decision), Mike Finch (Yan by decision) and Kasper MMA (Yan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Yan, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 47%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Yan

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Yan by decision, about 47 in 100

Win chance: Yan 57%, Dvalishvili 42%, draw or no contest 1%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Yan by decision47%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan solved Dvalishvili's wrestling in their rematch by stuffing nearly every takedown and landing cleaner counters across five rounds. His technical boxing and superior efficiency make another decision win the most likely result.

  2. Dvalishvili by decision37%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili dominated their first meeting with relentless chain-wrestling and unmatched cardio over five rounds. If he adjusts his entries and re-establishes cage control, he can outwork Yan on volume to take the scorecards.

  3. Yan by KO/TKO9%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan builds momentum in championship rounds and targets the head and body with crisp combinations as opponents tire. Forcing Dvalishvili into extended striking exchanges creates late stoppage opportunities.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Yan KO/TKO 1%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO <1%, submission <1%.
  2. Round 2: Yan KO/TKO 1%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO 1%, submission <1%.
  3. Round 3: Yan KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  4. Round 4: Yan KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  5. Round 5: Yan KO/TKO 2%, submission <1%; Dvalishvili KO/TKO 1%, submission 1%.
  6. Decision: Yan 47%; Dvalishvili 37%.

Draw or no contest: 1%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in Gemini's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3R4R5Decision
Yan KO/TKO1%1%2%2%2%—
Yan Submission<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%—
Yan Decision—————47%
Dvalishvili KO/TKO<1%1%1%1%1%—
Dvalishvili Submission<1%<1%1%1%1%—
Dvalishvili Decision—————37%
Draw or no contest1%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Yan: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 42%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 43%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Yan: 52% (about 52 in 100 fights). Dvalishvili: 47%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Yan by decision: 47% (about 47 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Claude

    Yan by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Yan by decision (47%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (37%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (9%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan solved Dvalishvili's wrestling in their rematch by stuffing nearly every takedown and landing cleaner counters across five rounds. His technical boxing and superior efficiency make another decision win the most likely result.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Dvalishvili dominated their first meeting with relentless chain-wrestling and unmatched cardio over five rounds. If he adjusts his entries and re-establishes cage control, he can outwork Yan on volume to take the scorecards.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan builds momentum in championship rounds and targets the head and body with crisp combinations as opponents tire. Forcing Dvalishvili into extended striking exchanges creates late stoppage opportunities.
Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Yan by decision (44%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (38%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (10%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan demonstrated a workable answer in the rematch: defend repeated shots and land more damaging strikes. Both previous meetings lasted five rounds.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling already overwhelmed Yan once, and victories over elite opposition establish that his pressure can work across five rounds.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan's body attacks and accurate combinations offer the clearest finishing route, particularly if failed takedowns leave Dvalishvili increasingly exposed.

  • Claude

    1. Yan by decision (44%); 2. Dvalishvili by decision (42%); 3. Yan by KO/TKO (7%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Yan by decision: Yan won the rematch on the cards, and his striking and takedown defense should edge a close, competitive five-rounder.
    • Dvalishvili by decision: Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume can win rounds on control and output across five rounds.
    • Yan by KO/TKO: Yan has the power to hurt Merab when he closes distance, though Merab has rarely been stopped.
How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Yan's 57% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Yan's 56% win chance.

  • Claude

    5 of 10, based on Yan's 52% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 16%. Decision: 84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 17%. Decision: 82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

How does Yan win?

  • Gemini

    Yan wins 57%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%, decision 47%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan wins 56%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%, decision 44%.

  • Claude

    Yan wins 52%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 44%.

How does Dvalishvili win?

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili wins 42%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 37%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili wins 43%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%, decision 38%.

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili wins 47%: KO/TKO 2%, submission 3%, decision 42%.

The fight in one sentence

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Petr Yan is expected to stuff Merab Dvalishvili's takedown attempts and outland him with crisp, efficient boxing counters to win a five-round decision.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I narrowly favor Yan to defend enough takedowns and land the cleaner, heavier strikes over five competitive rounds.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard A tight, high-pace five-round fight where Merab's pressure and takedowns are met by Yan's sharper striking and takedown defense, likely going the distance.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 4 is most likely (25% of finishes). Chance of a round-4 finish overall: 4%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, rounds 4 and 5 are equally likely (25% of finishes each, 4% overall each).

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 3 is most likely (22% of finishes). Chance of a round-3 finish overall: 3%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 57% (from 57%), Dvalishvili 42% (from 42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Once past the opening round, Petr Yan typically finishes his reads and begins firing sharper combinations to the head and body while Dvalishvili increases his wrestling pace.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 56% (from 56%), Dvalishvili 43% (from 43%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Repeated wrestling exchanges will test whether Yan can defend without sacrificing his offense. If he keeps space to punch, his reads and body attacks should become more influential.

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Yan 52% (from 52%), Dvalishvili 47% (from 47%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab's pace and wrestling usually accumulate as rounds go on, but Yan has had time to adjust and land cleaner shots, so the middle rounds decide who controls the pace.

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab Dvalishvili is most likely to win by chaining takedown attempts relentlessly and pinning Yan against the fence to win the volume battle on the judges' scorecards.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (38%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili can regain control by disguising his entries with strikes, chaining attempts and making Yan defend repeatedly before he can set his feet.

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili's most likely upset: Dvalishvili by decision (42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab wins by constant forward pressure, chain wrestling and clinch work, banking rounds on control time and wearing Yan down.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Petr Yan's best path to victory is defending takedowns in open space and punishing Dvalishvili's entries with clean boxing combinations across five rounds. Merab Dvalishvili's best path to victory is mixing strikes into constant chain-wrestling to smother Yan's offense along the cage and win on volume.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should hold the center, punish entries with body shots and resume striking immediately after defending takedowns. Dvalishvili should mix striking into relentless wrestling and turn completed takedowns into sustained offense.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan: use his jab, counters and strong takedown defense to win the striking exchanges and stuff the shots. Merab: force a relentless pace, chain takedowns and fight on the fence to drain Yan.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Yan can deny Dvalishvili's initial takedown entries in the center of the cage and avoid getting pinned against the fence for extended stretches.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Yan gets back to striking immediately after defending shots, and whether Dvalishvili can connect his first entry to productive follow-up attempts.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Merab's first takedown attempts succeed and whether Yan's counter punches land cleanly as Merab closes the distance.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Yan.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Yan by decision, the model's most likely outcome.

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    47% (about 47 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    44% (about 44 in 100).

  • Claude

    44% (about 44 in 100).

More questions (38)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 12%, submission 4%, decision 84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 13%, submission 4%, decision 82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 9%, submission 5%, decision 86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • Gemini

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Yan: 10%, against 6% for Dvalishvili.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 12%, against 5% for Dvalishvili.

  • Claude

    Yan: 8%, against 6% for Dvalishvili.

Can Yan get the finish? Can Dvalishvili?

  • Gemini

    Yan: 10% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%). Dvalishvili: 6% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan: 12% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 2%). Dvalishvili: 5% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 2%).

  • Claude

    Yan: 8% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%). Dvalishvili: 6% (KO/TKO 2%, submission 3%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Yan is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 2%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 2%.

  • Claude

    Yan is knocked out in 2% and submitted in 3%. Dvalishvili is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 57% vs 42%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 43%.

  • Claude

    Close to a coin flip: 52% vs 47%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Gemini

    Yan by decision: 47%. Dvalishvili by decision: 37%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Yan by decision: 44%. Dvalishvili by decision: 38%.

  • Claude

    Yan by decision: 44%. Dvalishvili by decision: 42%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Dvalishvili wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Dvalishvili wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 7th closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 5th closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 3rd closest, and the 14th most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard This trilogy fight is well worth watching because it pits two elite bantamweights with contrasting styles and deep familiarity against each other over five high-paced rounds.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their contrasting styles and dramatically different previous meetings make this a compelling tactical trilogy.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, it is a trilogy between two elite bantamweights with a real stylistic clash of pressure wrestling against crisp boxing, and the series is tied.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • Gemini

    2%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    3%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • Gemini

    4%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    5%.

  • Claude

    6%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    84%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    82%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    86%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • Gemini

    Round 5: 4%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Round 5: 2%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 78%, submission 22%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 70%, submission 30%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 61%. If it goes longer: Yan 57%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 3%, Dvalishvili 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 73%. If it goes longer: Yan 56%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 3%, Dvalishvili 1%.

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Yan 63%. If it goes longer: Yan 52%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Yan 4%, Dvalishvili 2%.

What if 3 questions

If it reaches round 4, who is favoured?

  • Gemini

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 56% (from 57%), Dvalishvili 43% (from 42%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Both fighters excel late, but Yan holds a slight edge in the championship rounds if he keeps the fight standing, as his cumulative body work and counter accuracy build momentum as opponents tire.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 55% (from 56%), Dvalishvili 44% (from 43%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan has a slight conditional edge if his takedown defense holds, having finished their rematch strongly. Dvalishvili is better placed if sustained wrestling has kept Yan reacting.

  • Claude

    If it reaches round 4: Yan 51% (from 52%), Dvalishvili 48% (from 47%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab is slightly better placed on cardio, but Yan showed he can stay sharp late, so it is close with a small edge to Merab if his nose is not a problem.

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 56%, Dvalishvili 44%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 54%, Dvalishvili 46%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Yan 52%, Dvalishvili 49%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The fight could turn one-sided for Yan if he effortlessly stuffs every takedown and picks Dvalishvili apart at range, or for Dvalishvili if he traps Yan on the fence with nonstop wrestling pressure.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili could dominate if his pressure again suppresses Yan's output. Yan could pull away if he repeatedly denies entries and makes Dvalishvili absorb damaging counters.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Yan reads Merab's entries and hurts him early, or if Merab's takedowns land repeatedly and keep Yan pinned, either man could take most rounds.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan holds the most important edge with his superior striking efficiency and takedown defense, which allowed him to neutralize Dvalishvili's grappling in their second meeting.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan holds the cleaner striking edge, especially when he can attack the body without being trapped in prolonged wrestling exchanges.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The key edge is Yan's takedown defense and counter striking against Merab's pace and volume, and it slightly favors the champion.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest X-factor is what tactical adjustments Dvalishvili makes to his wrestling setups after having nearly all of his takedown attempts stuffed in their rematch.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dvalishvili's adjustments after a long preparation period are the biggest variable: better entries could change how much energy his pressure costs Yan.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab's reported broken nose and how it affects his breathing and cardio, along with Yan's tendency to start slowly.

What would change the model's mind?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Knowing that Yan was dealing with a physical injury that compromises his mobility or takedown defense would shift the forecast toward Dvalishvili's relentless grappling pace.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reliable evidence that Dvalishvili has resolved his reported knee issues and substantially improved his entries would move me toward him. A compromised weight cut would move me toward Yan.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Signs of Merab's nose hurting his cardio or Yan being taken down early and often would shift my view toward the other side.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Neither fighter's exact physical condition coming out of training camp nor any undisclosed nagging injuries could be established ahead of fight night.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not independently establish Dvalishvili's current knee condition or how well he will recover from his weight cut.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard How well Merab's nose has healed, and how much Yan has improved his starts since the second fight.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan will win the striking due to his tighter boxing defense and cleaner counter combinations, while Dvalishvili holds the grappling advantage through sheer wrestling volume and top pressure.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should win the striking through accuracy, combinations and body work. Dvalishvili should lead the grappling through repeated entries, although Yan can limit their payoff.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan should win the striking thanks to sharper, more powerful boxing, while Merab should win the grappling through volume and persistent chain wrestling.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan is slightly better placed in the later rounds because his defensive footwork and counter-striking become increasingly accurate after he downloads his opponent's timing.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I slightly prefer Yan late if he keeps the wrestling exchanges brief, because his body work and adjustments can accumulate. Dvalishvili's endurance makes that advantage fragile.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Merab is slightly better placed in later rounds because of his pace and conditioning, though Yan has shown he can keep pace deep.

Biggest danger for Yan, and for Dvalishvili

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The biggest danger for Yan is getting backed into the fence and overwhelmed by Dvalishvili's exhausting chain-wrestling pace without finding space to counter. The biggest danger for Dvalishvili is getting his takedowns stuffed repeatedly and absorbing clean, damaging combinations in extended striking exchanges.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan risks spending entire rounds defending wrestling and producing too little meaningful offense. Dvalishvili risks repeating unsuccessful entries while absorbing body shots and cleaner combinations.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yan: falling behind early by being pushed to the fence and taken down while he is still reading Merab. Merab: walking into Yan's counter left hook or straight punches while closing distance.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Dvalishvili by decision, 37% here against 40% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Yan by decision, 44% here against 46% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Dvalishvili by decision, 42% here against 37% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (57%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (56%).

  • Claude

    Of 81 analyst picks, 63 back Yan and 18 back Dvalishvili. This model picks Yan (52%).

Which model is most confident on Yan, and which on Dvalishvili?

  • Gemini

    On Yan: Gemini (57%). On Dvalishvili: Claude (47%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Dvalishvili by decision: from 37% (Gemini) to 42% (Claude).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    The MMA Guru (Yan by decision), DON SMOKE MMA (Yan by decision), Fight Productions (Yan by decision), James Lynch (Yan by decision), Bedtime MMA (Yan by decision), Travis Herrick MMA (Yan by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Yan by decision), Fight Genie (Claude) (Yan by decision), Fight Genie (GPT) (Yan by decision), MMA Lock of the Night (Yan by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Yan by decision), Jimbo Ortega MMA (Yan by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Yan by decision), James Blissett (Yan by decision), Tom Feely (Yan by decision), FightChoice AI ensemble (Yan by decision), Brent Brookhouse (Yan by decision), Michael Mormile (Yan by decision), Shakiel Mahjouri (Yan by decision), Andrew Richardson (Yan by decision), Ethan Diamandas (Yan by decision), Brandon Wise (Yan by decision), Garrett Kerman (Yan by decision), Danny Howard (Yan by decision), Mike Finch (Yan by decision) and Kasper MMA (Yan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Yan, most likely by decision.

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    Gemini, which gave the actual result 47%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

Version not reported · 23 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 6 sportsbooks

58% Petr Yan
42% Merab Dvalishvili

Favoured: Yan (58%) Called it

Yan defeats Dvalishvili · Dec

Final pre-fight line · as of 24 Oct 17:29 UTC · 6 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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