UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev  24 Oct 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Dominick Reyes defeats Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO

Loss Azamat Murzakanov 16-2-0
Win Dominick Reyes 17-5-0
KO/TKO · head kick and punches

Round 1 · 2:40

Murzakanov vs Reyes · UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Murzakanov landed a clean left hand that sent Reyes circling away. When they reset, Reyes went high with a kick that clipped Murzakanov and left him unsteady, then closed the distance with punches for the finish.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Murzakanov

UFC lists Azamat Murzakanov versus Dominick Reyes as a light heavyweight bout on the UFC 333 preliminary card.

Case for Reyes

Reyes is the opposing light heavyweight named by UFC for the Abu Dhabi matchup.

What We Were Watching For

  • Who claims the center of the Octagon first.
  • Whether Murzakanov can make his pressure count.
  • How Reyes manages the range and tempo.
  • Which fighter creates the cleaner moments at light heavyweight distance.
Records & career stats
Murzakanov vs Reyes
Russia
Nationality
United States
37
Age
36
5′10″178 cm
Height — Reyes leads
6′4″193 cm
72″182 cm
Reach — Reyes leads
77″196 cm
Not published
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Not published
4.4
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Reyes leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.99
3.2
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.4
56%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Murzakanov leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
89%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Murzakanov leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
83%
08:17
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
07:51
K Dojo Warrior Tribe
Team
Cobra Kai Victorville

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

The Cage Doctor
Hear it — 17:38 The Cage Doctor on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

The Cage Doctor picks Azamat Murzakanov by knockout; the caption garbles his name as “Oz Makonov,” but the adjacent segment identifies Dominick Reyes and Murzakanov.

“I’m taking [ASR] Murzakanov probably by brutal knockout”

* ASR renders Azamat Murzakanov as “Oz Makonov”; the adjacent Dominick Reyes/Murzakanov context resolves the canonical bout.

Track record: winner called in 7 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 9 resolved calls).

View full track record (9 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

FightIQ's snapshot explicitly predicts Azamat Murzakanov at site-displayed confidence of 63%; tier MED.

“We predict Azamat Murzakanov — 63% confident”

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 21:48 Jimbo Ortega MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Jimbo Ortega MMA picks Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO. Says the KO probably comes early

“I'm going to go Makanov by KO probably”

Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).

View full track record (56 calls)
Lucas Tracy
Hear it — 20:44 Gemini YouTube analysisLucas Tracy on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

“azamat murzano is going to knock dominic reyes out”

Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Tom Feely
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Tom Feely's Sherdog preview explicitly picks Murzakanov by first-round knockout.

“the pick is Murzakanov by first-round knockout”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).

View full track record (34 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 51:10 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

MMA Lock of the Night picks Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO.

“So, I'm going to go as the Matt Makonov”

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 2:23 Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Selects Azamat Murzakanov to win.

Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).

View full track record (75 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 53:38 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

AJ Devito picks Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1.

“I like it. Makanov KO round one. I'm”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 13:50 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

The MMA Guru predicts Azamat Murzakanov will knock out Dominick Reyes. He separately says he is rooting for Reyes, without changing the prediction.

* An early prediction in a card-announcement reaction.

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 39:59 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

JakeGerberMMA picks Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1.

“Dvalishvili. So, give me Azamat to get”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
Fite Feed
Hear it — 21:05 Fite Feed on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Fite Feed picks Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1. Says the finish could come in the first or second round, then settles on KO in round one.

“I'm going to go with Azamat, guys.”

Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).

View full track record (37 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 21:40 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

DFS By The Numbers picks Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1.

“So I'm going Murzakanov to win this fight, I'll go Murzakanov to win this fight by first round brutal knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
UFC Predict — Main + Market
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Azamat Murzakanov for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
138 MMA
Hear it — 24:00 138 MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

138 MMA picks Azamat Murzakanov and considers a knockout the probable outcome.

* The knockout is a probable outcome, not a guarantee; no round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Mate Bersenadze
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Selects Azamat Murzakanov to win.

Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).

View full track record (52 calls)
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 21:58 Livid Larry MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Livid Larry MMA picks Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO. Official lean; says it is a close matchup

“towards Makanov by KO here. But I do”

Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 19:29 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

MMA JOEY predicts Dominick Reyes will be beaten badly by Azamat Murzakanov; no method or round is stated.

“Dominic Reyes is going to get starched badly.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
HopperMMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisHopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 41:23 James Blissett on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Expects Murzakanov to stay on the outside, counter, and land a big shot on a defensively poor Reyes.

“that's why I have to pick Azamat Murzakanov via knockout here.”

Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).

View full track record (79 calls)
Garrett Kerman
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Selects Azamat Murzakanov to win.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.6% (20 hit, 13 miss, across 33 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 33 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 33 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 33 resolved calls).

View full track record (33 calls)
FightChoice AI ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · Round 1

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

FightChoice's AI ensemble selects Azamat Murzakanov at 55.8%. Its projected duration is based on a survival-curve midpoint, so no round or method is recorded.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (5 calls)
Fight Genie (Claude)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Fight Genie Claude explicitly selects f_2870cf for Murzakanov–Reyes on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.

Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (8 hit, 8 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
The Oracle (Blueprint MMA)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

The Oracle selects Azamat Murzakanov with a 62% win probability.

Track record: winner called in 16 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 59.3% (16 hit, 11 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Tim Edwards
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Selects Azamat Murzakanov to win.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.8% (20 hit, 14 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).

View full track record (34 calls)
KingofCrackdown5095
Hear it — 20:07 KingofCrackdown5095 on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

KingofCrackdown5095 picks Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 2. low confidence

“So, in this one I got Azamat Merzikanov”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).

View full track record (63 calls)
Kunath
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisKunath on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
Danny Howard
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Selects Azamat Murzakanov to win.

Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 12 resolved calls).

View full track record (12 calls)
Artem MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisArtem MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

* Analyst stated a lean

Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).

View full track record (95 calls)
Mike Finch
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisMike Finch on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · Round 1

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
MMA Intel
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

MMA Intel explicitly selects Azamat Murzakanov; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Fight Society
Hear it — 18:40 Fight Society on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Fight Society picks Azamat Murzakanov because he is more willing to push, throw big shots, and take risks against Dominick Reyes.

“I'm going to go with Murzakanov.”

* A later sentence says Murzakanov will chin Reyes badly, but this row preserves the explicit winner call at cue 1120 without adding a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 4 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (4 hit, 3 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).

View full track record (7 calls)
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Jon Litterine explicitly selects Azamat Murzakanov; no method or round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).

View full track record (124 calls)
Fight Productions
Hear it — 29:43 Fight Productions on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Fight Productions selects Azamat Murzakanov by round-1 knockout.

“So I'm going to take Osam Makonov to win this one by round one KO.”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Fight Genie (GPT)
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Fight Genie GPT explicitly selects f_2870cf for Murzakanov–Reyes on the live UFC 333 card. The page exposes no original publication or lock time; 2026-10-21 is the observed snapshot date only.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.3% (8 hit, 7 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
MMA.SOCIAL
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Azamat Murzakanov by ko/tko; no round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Kasper MMA
Hear it — 7:40 Gemini YouTube analysisKasper MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

“so I'm picking Merc to win by KO/TKO”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 54.8% (23 hit, 19 miss, across 42 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 42 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 42 resolved calls).

View full track record (42 calls)
Aniki MMA
Hear it — 24:01 Gemini YouTube analysisAniki MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

“so yeah just give me Azam Makana by first round KO or TKO”

Track record: winner called in 16 of 30 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.3% (16 hit, 14 miss, across 30 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 30 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 6 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 30 resolved calls).

View full track record (30 calls)
Half The Battle
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisHalf The Battle on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).

View full track record (109 calls)
TonyHasDiedMMA
Hear it — 23:13 Gemini YouTube analysisTonyHasDiedMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

“give me um Azimat to knock him out”

Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).

View full track record (53 calls)
Voice of MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisVoice of MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).

View full track record (21 calls)
Steve Garcia
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisSteve Garcia on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.7% (15 hit, 14 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).

View full track record (29 calls)
Walk The Line MMA
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisWalk The Line MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
mmadbm
Hear it — 0:45 Gemini YouTube analysismmadbm on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

“left-handed Makanov puts him out”

Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (12 hit, 2 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 41 resolved calls).

View full track record (41 calls)
DON SMOKE MMA
Hear it — 14:54 DON SMOKE MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Don Smoke says he is rooting for Reyes but will not trust his chin and goes with the other fighter, who he says just lost his zero to Paulo Costa.

Track record: winner called in 12 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 46.2% (12 hit, 14 miss, across 26 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 26 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 26 resolved calls).

View full track record (26 calls)
Andrew Sumian
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Combat Press preview by Andrew Sumian leans Murzakanov; no method is stated.

“Yes, Murzakanov just lost, but he will be hungry to get a win, and it will be at Reyes’ expense.”

Track record: winner called in 18 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 45.0% (18 hit, 22 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).

View full track record (40 calls)
Brandon K
Open video source Gemini YouTube analysisBrandon K on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

No reasoning or quote is available for this pick.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 44.4% (20 hit, 25 miss, across 45 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (6 hit, 8 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 45 resolved calls).

View full track record (45 calls)
The Lab Analytics
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

The Lab Analytics' explicit model pick selects Azamat Murzakanov (55.2% model probability; LOW confidence, LEAN tier). The page publishes no method or round. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 observed page snapshot; no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 25 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (10 hit, 15 miss, across 25 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 25 resolved calls).

View full track record (25 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

FIGHT//AI's UFC 333 predictions page lists Azamat Murzakanov over Dominick Reyes (55% site-displayed confidence); observed 2026-10-17 as the snapshot date, not an asserted original publication or lock date; no method or round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Chris Faria
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Azamat Murzakanov

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Selects Azamat Murzakanov to win.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).

View full track record (10 calls)
UFC Predict — Logistic Core
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dominick Reyes

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Dominick Reyes for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 23:42 Gemini YouTube analysisBedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dominick Reyes

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

“Taxi manov your time has come Reyes army's fucking on top dude”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
UFC Predict — CatBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dominick Reyes

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Dominick Reyes for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dominick Reyes

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Dominick Reyes for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — LightGBM
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dominick Reyes

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Dominick Reyes for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — XGBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dominick Reyes

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Dominick Reyes for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Schweppe explicitly selects Reyes by round 2 knockout.

Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).

View full track record (99 calls)
Andy Lang
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dominick Reyes

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Selects Dominick Reyes to win.

Track record: winner called in 18 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.4% (18 hit, 17 miss, across 35 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 35 resolved calls).

View full track record (35 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 45:27 Greedo Plays MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dominick Reyes · Dec

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Greedo picks Dominick Reyes by decision, expecting him to maintain distance.

Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).

View full track record (72 calls)
Josh Schonwald
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dominick Reyes

Fight result: Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO

Josh Schonwald picks Dominick Reyes, per the Doc's Sports pick line.

“Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Dominick Reyes (+185)”

Track record: winner called in 6 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).

View full track record (15 calls)

Analyst picks: The Cage Doctor Miss; UFC Predict — Logistic Core Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Miss; Jimbo Ortega MMA Miss; Lucas Tracy Miss; Tom Feely Miss; MMA Lock of the Night Miss; Michael Chiesa Miss; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; Fite Feed Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; UFC Predict — CatBoost Hit; UFC Predict — Main + Market Miss; 138 MMA Miss; Mate Bersenadze Miss; Livid Larry MMA Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; HopperMMA Miss; James Blissett Miss; Garrett Kerman Miss; FightChoice AI ensemble Miss; Fight Genie (Claude) Miss; The Oracle (Blueprint MMA) Miss; Tim Edwards Miss; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Kunath Miss; Danny Howard Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Mike Finch Miss; MMA Intel Miss; UFC Predict — Ensemble Hit; UFC Predict — LightGBM Hit; UFC Predict — XGBoost Hit; Fight Society Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Miss; Fight Genie (GPT) Miss; MMA.SOCIAL Miss; Kasper MMA Miss; Chris Schweppe Hit; Aniki MMA Miss; Half The Battle Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; Voice of MMA Miss; Steve Garcia Miss; Andy Lang Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Walk The Line MMA Miss; mmadbm Miss; DON SMOKE MMA Miss; Andrew Sumian Miss; Brandon K Miss; The Lab Analytics Miss; Josh Schonwald Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss; Chris Faria Miss.

Only 10 of 59 called the upset.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Reyes · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability ChatGPT and Gemini put 37% on Reyes.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
62% Murzakanov
37% Reyes
PickMurzakanov · KO/TKO · R1ActualReyes · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
64% Murzakanov
34% Reyes
PickMurzakanov · KO/TKO · R1ActualReyes · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
62% Murzakanov
37% Reyes
PickMurzakanov · KO/TKO · R1ActualReyes · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Murzakanov

    Most likely: Murzakanov by KO/TKO, about 46 in 100

    Win chance: Murzakanov 62%, Reyes 37%, draw or no contest 1%.

    gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Murzakanov

    Most likely: Murzakanov by KO/TKO, about 40 in 100

    Win chance: Murzakanov 64%, Reyes 34%, draw or no contest 2%.

    claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Murzakanov

    Most likely: Murzakanov by KO/TKO, about 44 in 100

    Win chance: Murzakanov 62%, Reyes 37%, draw or no contest 2%.

    Version not reported · 23 Oct

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

3 of 3 models pick Murzakanov.

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Reyes: 37%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Reyes: 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Reyes: 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

  • Claude

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 44% (about 44 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (15%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov's explosive, accurate punching matches up well against Reyes' vulnerability to clean counters. Reyes must repeatedly manage distance without giving him a decisive opening.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes has the length, kicking variety and power to hurt Murzakanov before he reaches punching range. Murzakanov's recent stoppage loss makes that threat harder to dismiss.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Reyes fights cautiously, Murzakanov can win rounds with selective damaging bursts. Three rounds give him a workable route without needing sustained high output.

  • Claude

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (22%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov has heavy hands and Reyes has been stopped before, so a clean early shot is the most likely single ending.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Murzakanov survives the early exchanges and keeps his pace, he can take a close decision on power shots and damage.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes' counter left hand and head kick can stop a tiring or aggressive Murzakanov, as Costa did.

  • Gemini

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (44%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (21%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (16%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov possesses fast hands and explosive counter-punching power in the pocket, which poses a major threat to Reyes and his historically vulnerable chin in early exchanges.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes holds a substantial height and reach advantage and uses dangerous straight lefts and high kicks that can stop Murzakanov, especially if the pace slows down later.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Reyes survives the early power shots, Murzakanov can still win rounds by consistently landing the cleaner, heavier counters and mixing in timely takedowns.
How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Murzakanov's 62% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Murzakanov's 64% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Murzakanov's 62% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 70%. Decision: 29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 69%. Decision: 30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Murzakanov win?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov wins 62%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 2%, decision 15%.

  • Claude

    Murzakanov wins 64%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov wins 62%: KO/TKO 44%, submission 2%, decision 16%.

How does Reyes win?

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes wins 37%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 1%, decision 13%.

  • Claude

    Reyes wins 34%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 2%, decision 7%.

  • Gemini

    Reyes wins 37%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%, decision 14%.

The fight in one sentence

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Murzakanov's sharp punching bursts to overcome Reyes' reach, with a stoppage more likely than a comfortable fight.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Two power-punching light heavyweights trade early, and I expect Murzakanov's heavier hands to produce a stoppage or a narrow edge before cardio becomes a factor.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov is likely to catch Dominick Reyes with fast, heavy counters in the pocket for an early stoppage, or outscore him on the cards with cleaner power shots.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (50% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 36%.

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (42% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 29%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (49% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 33%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 57% (from 62%), Reyes 42% (from 37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes gains opportunities to establish his kicks and make Murzakanov work across distance. Murzakanov remains dangerous, but prolonged inactivity could let Reyes collect rounds.

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 66% (from 64%), Reyes 32% (from 34%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, Murzakanov's pace tends to fade, and Reyes' movement and counters plus occasional takedowns can even the fight. Murzakanov still keeps a one-shot threat.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 57% (from 62%), Reyes 41% (from 37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Dominick Reyes survives the opening frame, the bout shifts into a more measured striking battle where his reach advantage and straight lefts become much more effective as Azamat Murzakanov's early explosiveness fades.

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by decision (13%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes can keep the fight long with kicks and straight punches, then catch Murzakanov entering. Sustained body attacks could also expose the vulnerabilities shown against Costa.

  • Claude

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1 (11%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes wins by staying mobile, countering with the left hand and head kick, then outworking a slowing Murzakanov or mixing in wrestling to drain him.

  • Gemini

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by decision (14%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes is most likely to win by surviving the early blitz, using his substantial height and reach advantage to keep Azamat Murzakanov at bay, and landing straight lefts or high kicks as the pace slows.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov should pressure patiently, draw a committed strike and counter with compact combinations. Reyes should maintain distance, vary his kicks and exit sideways before Murzakanov can extend exchanges.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov: land heavy power shots early and finish before his cardio dips. Reyes: use distance and counters, avoid early exchanges, and win the later rounds on volume and takedowns.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov should close the distance behind tight defense to land explosive counter hooks in the pocket and mix in timely takedowns. Dominick Reyes should use his height and reach to keep the fight at kicking range, picking Murzakanov apart with straight lefts and high kicks.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Reyes can land kicks without being countered, and whether Murzakanov closes distance while keeping his feet underneath him.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Murzakanov pressures and lands his right hand cleanly, and whether Reyes uses movement and counters or stands and trades.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Dominick Reyes can establish his jab and front kicks to maintain distance, or if Azamat Murzakanov easily slips inside to land heavy left hooks in the pocket.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Murzakanov.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (46%).

  • Claude

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (40%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (44%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    10% (about 10 in 100).

  • Claude

    11% (about 11 in 100).

  • Gemini

    9% (about 9 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 69%, submission 3%, decision 28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 65%, submission 5%, decision 29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 65%, submission 4%, decision 30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

  • Claude

    2%.

  • Gemini

    2%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 48%, against 24% for Reyes.

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 43%, against 27% for Reyes.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 46%, against 23% for Reyes.

Can Murzakanov get the finish? Can Reyes?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 48% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 2%). Reyes: 24% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 1%).

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 43% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%). Reyes: 27% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 2%).

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 46% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 2%). Reyes: 23% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 1%. Reyes is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 2%.

  • Claude

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 2%. Reyes is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 3%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 2%. Reyes is knocked out in 44% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 62% vs 37%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 34%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 62% vs 37%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: 25%. Reyes by decision: 13%.

  • Claude

    Murzakanov by decision: 22%. Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1: 11%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: 23%. Reyes by decision: 14%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Reyes wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Reyes wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 3rd most likely to end early.

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 12th closest, and the most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 2nd most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their contrasting ranges and dangerous counterpunching make even quiet exchanges feel consequential.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, both men carry real knockout power and neither is shy about exchanging, so the fight has a high chance of a sudden ending.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • ChatGPT

    36%.

  • Claude

    29%.

  • Gemini

    33%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • ChatGPT

    59%.

  • Claude

    54%.

  • Gemini

    56%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • ChatGPT

    Round 3: 13%.

  • Claude

    Round 3: 16%.

  • Gemini

    Round 3: 13%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 97%, submission 3%.

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 94%, submission 6%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 96%, submission 5%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 68%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 40%, Reyes 19%.

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 61%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 70%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 33%, Reyes 21%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 69%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 38%, Reyes 18%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Murzakanov 53%, Reyes 47%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Murzakanov 76%, Reyes 24%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Murzakanov 53%, Reyes 47%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov could dominate if Reyes retreats straight toward the fence and becomes reluctant to throw. That would let Murzakanov choose when to enter without facing enough return fire.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov could finish Reyes early if he lands clean and Reyes' chin fails again. Reyes could dominate if he controls the pace and Murzakanov tires.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov could make this look effortless if he immediately slips past Dominick Reyes's jab and lands a fight-ending counter in the opening exchanges. Conversely, Reyes could cruise from the outside if he keeps Murzakanov at the end of his long reach.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov holds the edge in compact punching exchanges, where his speed and accuracy can exploit Reyes' vulnerability to clean power shots.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov has the power edge, while Reyes has the more varied game and better cardio. The power edge is slightly more likely to decide the bout.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov holds the most important edge with his hand speed and counter-punching power in the pocket against Dominick Reyes's historically vulnerable chin.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov's response to his first stoppage loss is the biggest uncertainty, especially if Reyes lands meaningful kicks early.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov's arm health and his recovery from the Costa head-kick knockout, which affect both his durability and his output.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes's chin and defensive composure under fire is the biggest X-factor, as his ability to absorb or evade early counter hooks will dictate whether the fight extends into a competitive battle.

What would change the model's mind?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Murzakanov has not recovered physically from the Costa loss would shift my forecast toward Reyes. His ability to absorb kicks and maintain pressure matters most.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of an injury or visible signs of slowing, or Reyes beating him badly in early exchanges, would move me toward Reyes.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a compromised weight cut or camp injury for Azamat Murzakanov, or evidence that Dominick Reyes plans a wrestling-heavy game plan to tire out his shorter opponent, would significantly shift this outlook.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's current injury status or detailed adjustments made during this training camp.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The state of Murzakanov's arm injury, and whether Reyes' chin and durability have held up after his previous knockout losses.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how much durability Dominick Reyes retains when absorbing clean power shots, and how well Azamat Murzakanov's cardio will hold up if forced to chase a taller mover for three full rounds.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean Murzakanov in striking because of his sharper close-range counters, despite Reyes' reach. I give Murzakanov a tentative wrestling edge, but Reyes' takedown defense should limit its influence.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov should win the striking on raw power. Reyes should have the grappling edge, since Murzakanov's wrestling and cardio are weaker.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov should win the striking due to his superior hand speed and counter power in close, and he also holds the grappling edge through his compact wrestling base and timely takedowns.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes has a slight conditional edge late if he preserves distance and avoids early damage. His varied kicks offer a sustainable scoring route, though neither fighter has a secure endurance advantage here.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes is better placed late because he has the better cardio and a steadier pace, while Murzakanov tends to fade after the first round.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes becomes more competitive in the later rounds if he maintains distance and Murzakanov slows down, though Murzakanov can still steal late frames with heavier counters and takedowns.

Biggest danger for Murzakanov, and for Reyes

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov risks absorbing kicks while waiting for a punching opening, particularly after his stoppage loss to Costa. Reyes risks being caught during an exchange or retreat by Murzakanov's sudden combinations.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov: tiring and getting countered or taken down if he fails to finish early. Reyes: walking onto a heavy right hand early, since his chin has been tested before.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Azamat Murzakanov, the biggest danger is getting stuck at the end of Dominick Reyes's long straight lefts and high kicks while tiring in the later rounds. For Dominick Reyes, the biggest danger is trading in the pocket early against Murzakanov's fast hands and explosive counter power.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1, 25% here against 20% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1, 17% here against 24% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Reyes by decision, 14% here against 10% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 59 analyst picks, 49 back Murzakanov and 10 back Reyes. This model picks Murzakanov (62%).

  • Claude

    Of 59 analyst picks, 49 back Murzakanov and 10 back Reyes. This model picks Murzakanov (64%).

  • Gemini

    Of 59 analyst picks, 49 back Murzakanov and 10 back Reyes. This model picks Murzakanov (62%).

Which model is most confident on Murzakanov, and which on Reyes?

  • All models

    On Murzakanov: Claude (64%). On Reyes: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: from 17% (Claude) to 25% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • All models

    Tom Feely (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), AJ Devito (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), DFS By The Numbers (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), Fite Feed (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), JakeGerberMMA (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1) and Aniki MMA (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Murzakanov, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 1).

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • All models

    Claude, which gave the actual result 11%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • All models

    Yes.

ChatGPT

Pick

Murzakanov

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Murzakanov by KO/TKO, about 46 in 100

Win chance: Murzakanov 62%, Reyes 37%, draw or no contest 1%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO46%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov's explosive, accurate punching matches up well against Reyes' vulnerability to clean counters. Reyes must repeatedly manage distance without giving him a decisive opening.

  2. Reyes by KO/TKO23%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes has the length, kicking variety and power to hurt Murzakanov before he reaches punching range. Murzakanov's recent stoppage loss makes that threat harder to dismiss.

  3. Murzakanov by decision15%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Reyes fights cautiously, Murzakanov can win rounds with selective damaging bursts. Three rounds give him a workable route without needing sustained high output.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Murzakanov KO/TKO 25%, submission <1%; Reyes KO/TKO 10%, submission <1%.
  2. Round 2: Murzakanov KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%; Reyes KO/TKO 8%, submission <1%.
  3. Round 3: Murzakanov KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%; Reyes KO/TKO 5%, submission <1%.
  4. Decision: Murzakanov 15%; Reyes 13%.

Draw or no contest: 1%

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in ChatGPT's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3Decision
Murzakanov KO/TKO25%14%7%—
Murzakanov Submission<1%1%1%—
Murzakanov Decision———15%
Reyes KO/TKO10%8%5%—
Reyes Submission<1%<1%<1%—
Reyes Decision———13%
Draw or no contest1%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Reyes: 37%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Reyes: 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Reyes: 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 44% (about 44 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (15%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov's explosive, accurate punching matches up well against Reyes' vulnerability to clean counters. Reyes must repeatedly manage distance without giving him a decisive opening.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes has the length, kicking variety and power to hurt Murzakanov before he reaches punching range. Murzakanov's recent stoppage loss makes that threat harder to dismiss.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Reyes fights cautiously, Murzakanov can win rounds with selective damaging bursts. Three rounds give him a workable route without needing sustained high output.
Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (22%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov has heavy hands and Reyes has been stopped before, so a clean early shot is the most likely single ending.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Murzakanov survives the early exchanges and keeps his pace, he can take a close decision on power shots and damage.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes' counter left hand and head kick can stop a tiring or aggressive Murzakanov, as Costa did.

  • Gemini

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (44%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (21%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (16%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov possesses fast hands and explosive counter-punching power in the pocket, which poses a major threat to Reyes and his historically vulnerable chin in early exchanges.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes holds a substantial height and reach advantage and uses dangerous straight lefts and high kicks that can stop Murzakanov, especially if the pace slows down later.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Reyes survives the early power shots, Murzakanov can still win rounds by consistently landing the cleaner, heavier counters and mixing in timely takedowns.
How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Murzakanov's 62% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Murzakanov's 64% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 70%. Decision: 29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 69%. Decision: 30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Murzakanov win?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov wins 62%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 2%, decision 15%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Murzakanov wins 64%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%, decision 22%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov wins 62%: KO/TKO 44%, submission 2%, decision 16%.

How does Reyes win?

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes wins 37%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 1%, decision 13%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Reyes wins 34%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 2%, decision 7%.

  • Gemini

    Reyes wins 37%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%, decision 14%.

The fight in one sentence

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Murzakanov's sharp punching bursts to overcome Reyes' reach, with a stoppage more likely than a comfortable fight.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Two power-punching light heavyweights trade early, and I expect Murzakanov's heavier hands to produce a stoppage or a narrow edge before cardio becomes a factor.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov is likely to catch Dominick Reyes with fast, heavy counters in the pocket for an early stoppage, or outscore him on the cards with cleaner power shots.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (50% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 36%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (42% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 29%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (49% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 33%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 57% (from 62%), Reyes 42% (from 37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes gains opportunities to establish his kicks and make Murzakanov work across distance. Murzakanov remains dangerous, but prolonged inactivity could let Reyes collect rounds.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 66% (from 64%), Reyes 32% (from 34%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, Murzakanov's pace tends to fade, and Reyes' movement and counters plus occasional takedowns can even the fight. Murzakanov still keeps a one-shot threat.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 57% (from 62%), Reyes 41% (from 37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Dominick Reyes survives the opening frame, the bout shifts into a more measured striking battle where his reach advantage and straight lefts become much more effective as Azamat Murzakanov's early explosiveness fades.

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by decision (13%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes can keep the fight long with kicks and straight punches, then catch Murzakanov entering. Sustained body attacks could also expose the vulnerabilities shown against Costa.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1 (11%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes wins by staying mobile, countering with the left hand and head kick, then outworking a slowing Murzakanov or mixing in wrestling to drain him.

  • Gemini

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by decision (14%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes is most likely to win by surviving the early blitz, using his substantial height and reach advantage to keep Azamat Murzakanov at bay, and landing straight lefts or high kicks as the pace slows.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov should pressure patiently, draw a committed strike and counter with compact combinations. Reyes should maintain distance, vary his kicks and exit sideways before Murzakanov can extend exchanges.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov: land heavy power shots early and finish before his cardio dips. Reyes: use distance and counters, avoid early exchanges, and win the later rounds on volume and takedowns.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov should close the distance behind tight defense to land explosive counter hooks in the pocket and mix in timely takedowns. Dominick Reyes should use his height and reach to keep the fight at kicking range, picking Murzakanov apart with straight lefts and high kicks.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Reyes can land kicks without being countered, and whether Murzakanov closes distance while keeping his feet underneath him.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Murzakanov pressures and lands his right hand cleanly, and whether Reyes uses movement and counters or stands and trades.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Dominick Reyes can establish his jab and front kicks to maintain distance, or if Azamat Murzakanov easily slips inside to land heavy left hooks in the pocket.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Murzakanov.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (46%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (40%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (44%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • ChatGPT

    10% (about 10 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    11% (about 11 in 100).

  • Gemini

    9% (about 9 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 69%, submission 3%, decision 28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 65%, submission 5%, decision 29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 65%, submission 4%, decision 30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    2%.

  • Gemini

    2%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 48%, against 24% for Reyes.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 43%, against 27% for Reyes.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 46%, against 23% for Reyes.

Can Murzakanov get the finish? Can Reyes?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 48% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 2%). Reyes: 24% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 1%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 43% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%). Reyes: 27% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 2%).

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 46% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 2%). Reyes: 23% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 1%. Reyes is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 2%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 2%. Reyes is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 3%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 2%. Reyes is knocked out in 44% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 62% vs 37%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 34%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 62% vs 37%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: 25%. Reyes by decision: 13%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Murzakanov by decision: 22%. Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1: 11%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: 23%. Reyes by decision: 14%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Reyes wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Reyes wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 3rd most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 12th closest, and the most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 2nd most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their contrasting ranges and dangerous counterpunching make even quiet exchanges feel consequential.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, both men carry real knockout power and neither is shy about exchanging, so the fight has a high chance of a sudden ending.

  • Gemini

    Not answered in this forecast.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • ChatGPT

    36%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    29%.

  • Gemini

    33%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • ChatGPT

    59%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    54%.

  • Gemini

    56%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

  • Gemini

    30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • ChatGPT

    Round 3: 13%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Round 3: 16%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 97%, submission 3%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 94%, submission 6%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 96%, submission 5%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 68%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 40%, Reyes 19%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 61%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 70%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 33%, Reyes 21%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 69%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 38%, Reyes 18%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Murzakanov 53%, Reyes 47%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Murzakanov 76%, Reyes 24%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov could dominate if Reyes retreats straight toward the fence and becomes reluctant to throw. That would let Murzakanov choose when to enter without facing enough return fire.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov could finish Reyes early if he lands clean and Reyes' chin fails again. Reyes could dominate if he controls the pace and Murzakanov tires.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov could make this look effortless if he immediately slips past Dominick Reyes's jab and lands a fight-ending counter in the opening exchanges. Conversely, Reyes could cruise from the outside if he keeps Murzakanov at the end of his long reach.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov holds the edge in compact punching exchanges, where his speed and accuracy can exploit Reyes' vulnerability to clean power shots.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov has the power edge, while Reyes has the more varied game and better cardio. The power edge is slightly more likely to decide the bout.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov holds the most important edge with his hand speed and counter-punching power in the pocket against Dominick Reyes's historically vulnerable chin.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov's response to his first stoppage loss is the biggest uncertainty, especially if Reyes lands meaningful kicks early.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov's arm health and his recovery from the Costa head-kick knockout, which affect both his durability and his output.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes's chin and defensive composure under fire is the biggest X-factor, as his ability to absorb or evade early counter hooks will dictate whether the fight extends into a competitive battle.

What would change the model's mind?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Murzakanov has not recovered physically from the Costa loss would shift my forecast toward Reyes. His ability to absorb kicks and maintain pressure matters most.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of an injury or visible signs of slowing, or Reyes beating him badly in early exchanges, would move me toward Reyes.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a compromised weight cut or camp injury for Azamat Murzakanov, or evidence that Dominick Reyes plans a wrestling-heavy game plan to tire out his shorter opponent, would significantly shift this outlook.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's current injury status or detailed adjustments made during this training camp.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The state of Murzakanov's arm injury, and whether Reyes' chin and durability have held up after his previous knockout losses.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how much durability Dominick Reyes retains when absorbing clean power shots, and how well Azamat Murzakanov's cardio will hold up if forced to chase a taller mover for three full rounds.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean Murzakanov in striking because of his sharper close-range counters, despite Reyes' reach. I give Murzakanov a tentative wrestling edge, but Reyes' takedown defense should limit its influence.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov should win the striking on raw power. Reyes should have the grappling edge, since Murzakanov's wrestling and cardio are weaker.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov should win the striking due to his superior hand speed and counter power in close, and he also holds the grappling edge through his compact wrestling base and timely takedowns.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes has a slight conditional edge late if he preserves distance and avoids early damage. His varied kicks offer a sustainable scoring route, though neither fighter has a secure endurance advantage here.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes is better placed late because he has the better cardio and a steadier pace, while Murzakanov tends to fade after the first round.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes becomes more competitive in the later rounds if he maintains distance and Murzakanov slows down, though Murzakanov can still steal late frames with heavier counters and takedowns.

Biggest danger for Murzakanov, and for Reyes

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov risks absorbing kicks while waiting for a punching opening, particularly after his stoppage loss to Costa. Reyes risks being caught during an exchange or retreat by Murzakanov's sudden combinations.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov: tiring and getting countered or taken down if he fails to finish early. Reyes: walking onto a heavy right hand early, since his chin has been tested before.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Azamat Murzakanov, the biggest danger is getting stuck at the end of Dominick Reyes's long straight lefts and high kicks while tiring in the later rounds. For Dominick Reyes, the biggest danger is trading in the pocket early against Murzakanov's fast hands and explosive counter power.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1, 25% here against 20% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1, 17% here against 24% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Reyes by decision, 14% here against 10% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 59 analyst picks, 49 back Murzakanov and 10 back Reyes. This model picks Murzakanov (62%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 59 analyst picks, 49 back Murzakanov and 10 back Reyes. This model picks Murzakanov (64%).

Which model is most confident on Murzakanov, and which on Reyes?

  • ChatGPT

    On Murzakanov: Claude (64%). On Reyes: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: from 17% (Claude) to 25% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    Tom Feely (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), AJ Devito (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), DFS By The Numbers (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), Fite Feed (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), JakeGerberMMA (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1) and Aniki MMA (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Murzakanov, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 1).

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • ChatGPT

    Claude, which gave the actual result 11%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    Yes.

gpt-6-astra · 23 Oct63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Murzakanov

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Murzakanov by KO/TKO, about 40 in 100

Win chance: Murzakanov 64%, Reyes 34%, draw or no contest 2%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO40%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov has heavy hands and Reyes has been stopped before, so a clean early shot is the most likely single ending.

  2. Reyes by KO/TKO26%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes' counter left hand and head kick can stop a tiring or aggressive Murzakanov, as Costa did.

  3. Murzakanov by decision22%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Murzakanov survives the early exchanges and keeps his pace, he can take a close decision on power shots and damage.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Murzakanov KO/TKO 17%, submission 1%; Reyes KO/TKO 11%, submission 1%.
  2. Round 2: Murzakanov KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%; Reyes KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%.
  3. Round 3: Murzakanov KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%; Reyes KO/TKO 6%, submission 1%.
  4. Decision: Murzakanov 22%; Reyes 7%.

Draw or no contest: 2%

Decision columns are drawn cut short so the rounds stay readable; their printed values are exact.

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in Claude's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3Decision
Murzakanov KO/TKO17%14%9%—
Murzakanov Submission1%1%1%—
Murzakanov Decision———22%
Reyes KO/TKO11%9%6%—
Reyes Submission1%1%1%—
Reyes Decision———7%
Draw or no contest2%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Reyes: 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Reyes: 37%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Reyes: 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 44% (about 44 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (22%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov has heavy hands and Reyes has been stopped before, so a clean early shot is the most likely single ending.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Murzakanov survives the early exchanges and keeps his pace, he can take a close decision on power shots and damage.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes' counter left hand and head kick can stop a tiring or aggressive Murzakanov, as Costa did.
Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (15%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov's explosive, accurate punching matches up well against Reyes' vulnerability to clean counters. Reyes must repeatedly manage distance without giving him a decisive opening.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes has the length, kicking variety and power to hurt Murzakanov before he reaches punching range. Murzakanov's recent stoppage loss makes that threat harder to dismiss.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Reyes fights cautiously, Murzakanov can win rounds with selective damaging bursts. Three rounds give him a workable route without needing sustained high output.

  • Gemini

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (44%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (21%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (16%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov possesses fast hands and explosive counter-punching power in the pocket, which poses a major threat to Reyes and his historically vulnerable chin in early exchanges.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes holds a substantial height and reach advantage and uses dangerous straight lefts and high kicks that can stop Murzakanov, especially if the pace slows down later.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Reyes survives the early power shots, Murzakanov can still win rounds by consistently landing the cleaner, heavier counters and mixing in timely takedowns.
How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Murzakanov's 64% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Murzakanov's 62% win chance.

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Murzakanov's 62% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 70%. Decision: 29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 69%. Decision: 30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Murzakanov win?

  • Claude

    Murzakanov wins 64%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%, decision 22%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov wins 62%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 2%, decision 15%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov wins 62%: KO/TKO 44%, submission 2%, decision 16%.

How does Reyes win?

  • Claude

    Reyes wins 34%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 2%, decision 7%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes wins 37%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 1%, decision 13%.

  • Gemini

    Reyes wins 37%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%, decision 14%.

The fight in one sentence

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Two power-punching light heavyweights trade early, and I expect Murzakanov's heavier hands to produce a stoppage or a narrow edge before cardio becomes a factor.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Murzakanov's sharp punching bursts to overcome Reyes' reach, with a stoppage more likely than a comfortable fight.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov is likely to catch Dominick Reyes with fast, heavy counters in the pocket for an early stoppage, or outscore him on the cards with cleaner power shots.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (42% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 29%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (50% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 36%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (49% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 33%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 66% (from 64%), Reyes 32% (from 34%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, Murzakanov's pace tends to fade, and Reyes' movement and counters plus occasional takedowns can even the fight. Murzakanov still keeps a one-shot threat.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 57% (from 62%), Reyes 42% (from 37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes gains opportunities to establish his kicks and make Murzakanov work across distance. Murzakanov remains dangerous, but prolonged inactivity could let Reyes collect rounds.

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 57% (from 62%), Reyes 41% (from 37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Dominick Reyes survives the opening frame, the bout shifts into a more measured striking battle where his reach advantage and straight lefts become much more effective as Azamat Murzakanov's early explosiveness fades.

What is the upset path?

  • Claude

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1 (11%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes wins by staying mobile, countering with the left hand and head kick, then outworking a slowing Murzakanov or mixing in wrestling to drain him.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by decision (13%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes can keep the fight long with kicks and straight punches, then catch Murzakanov entering. Sustained body attacks could also expose the vulnerabilities shown against Costa.

  • Gemini

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by decision (14%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes is most likely to win by surviving the early blitz, using his substantial height and reach advantage to keep Azamat Murzakanov at bay, and landing straight lefts or high kicks as the pace slows.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov: land heavy power shots early and finish before his cardio dips. Reyes: use distance and counters, avoid early exchanges, and win the later rounds on volume and takedowns.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov should pressure patiently, draw a committed strike and counter with compact combinations. Reyes should maintain distance, vary his kicks and exit sideways before Murzakanov can extend exchanges.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov should close the distance behind tight defense to land explosive counter hooks in the pocket and mix in timely takedowns. Dominick Reyes should use his height and reach to keep the fight at kicking range, picking Murzakanov apart with straight lefts and high kicks.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Murzakanov pressures and lands his right hand cleanly, and whether Reyes uses movement and counters or stands and trades.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Reyes can land kicks without being countered, and whether Murzakanov closes distance while keeping his feet underneath him.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Dominick Reyes can establish his jab and front kicks to maintain distance, or if Azamat Murzakanov easily slips inside to land heavy left hooks in the pocket.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Murzakanov.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (40%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (46%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (44%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Claude

    11% (about 11 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    10% (about 10 in 100).

  • Gemini

    9% (about 9 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 65%, submission 5%, decision 29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 69%, submission 3%, decision 28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 65%, submission 4%, decision 30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • Claude

    2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 43%, against 27% for Reyes.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 48%, against 24% for Reyes.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 46%, against 23% for Reyes.

Can Murzakanov get the finish? Can Reyes?

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 43% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%). Reyes: 27% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 48% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 2%). Reyes: 24% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 1%).

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 46% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 2%). Reyes: 23% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 2%. Reyes is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 3%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 1%. Reyes is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 2%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 2%. Reyes is knocked out in 44% and submitted in 2%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 34%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 62% vs 37%.

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 62% vs 37%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Claude

    Murzakanov by decision: 22%. Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1: 11%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: 25%. Reyes by decision: 13%.

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: 23%. Reyes by decision: 14%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Reyes wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Reyes wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 12th closest, and the most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 3rd most likely to end early.

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 2nd most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, both men carry real knockout power and neither is shy about exchanging, so the fight has a high chance of a sudden ending.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their contrasting ranges and dangerous counterpunching make even quiet exchanges feel consequential.

  • Gemini

    Not answered in this forecast.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • Claude

    29%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    36%.

  • Gemini

    33%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • Claude

    54%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    59%.

  • Gemini

    56%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Gemini

    30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • Claude

    Round 3: 16%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Round 3: 13%.

  • Gemini

    Round 3: 13%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 94%, submission 6%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 97%, submission 3%.

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 96%, submission 5%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 61%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 70%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 33%, Reyes 21%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 68%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 40%, Reyes 19%.

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 69%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 38%, Reyes 18%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Murzakanov 76%, Reyes 24%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Murzakanov 53%, Reyes 47%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Murzakanov 53%, Reyes 47%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov could finish Reyes early if he lands clean and Reyes' chin fails again. Reyes could dominate if he controls the pace and Murzakanov tires.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov could dominate if Reyes retreats straight toward the fence and becomes reluctant to throw. That would let Murzakanov choose when to enter without facing enough return fire.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov could make this look effortless if he immediately slips past Dominick Reyes's jab and lands a fight-ending counter in the opening exchanges. Conversely, Reyes could cruise from the outside if he keeps Murzakanov at the end of his long reach.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov has the power edge, while Reyes has the more varied game and better cardio. The power edge is slightly more likely to decide the bout.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov holds the edge in compact punching exchanges, where his speed and accuracy can exploit Reyes' vulnerability to clean power shots.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov holds the most important edge with his hand speed and counter-punching power in the pocket against Dominick Reyes's historically vulnerable chin.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov's arm health and his recovery from the Costa head-kick knockout, which affect both his durability and his output.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov's response to his first stoppage loss is the biggest uncertainty, especially if Reyes lands meaningful kicks early.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes's chin and defensive composure under fire is the biggest X-factor, as his ability to absorb or evade early counter hooks will dictate whether the fight extends into a competitive battle.

What would change the model's mind?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of an injury or visible signs of slowing, or Reyes beating him badly in early exchanges, would move me toward Reyes.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Murzakanov has not recovered physically from the Costa loss would shift my forecast toward Reyes. His ability to absorb kicks and maintain pressure matters most.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a compromised weight cut or camp injury for Azamat Murzakanov, or evidence that Dominick Reyes plans a wrestling-heavy game plan to tire out his shorter opponent, would significantly shift this outlook.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The state of Murzakanov's arm injury, and whether Reyes' chin and durability have held up after his previous knockout losses.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's current injury status or detailed adjustments made during this training camp.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how much durability Dominick Reyes retains when absorbing clean power shots, and how well Azamat Murzakanov's cardio will hold up if forced to chase a taller mover for three full rounds.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov should win the striking on raw power. Reyes should have the grappling edge, since Murzakanov's wrestling and cardio are weaker.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean Murzakanov in striking because of his sharper close-range counters, despite Reyes' reach. I give Murzakanov a tentative wrestling edge, but Reyes' takedown defense should limit its influence.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov should win the striking due to his superior hand speed and counter power in close, and he also holds the grappling edge through his compact wrestling base and timely takedowns.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes is better placed late because he has the better cardio and a steadier pace, while Murzakanov tends to fade after the first round.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes has a slight conditional edge late if he preserves distance and avoids early damage. His varied kicks offer a sustainable scoring route, though neither fighter has a secure endurance advantage here.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes becomes more competitive in the later rounds if he maintains distance and Murzakanov slows down, though Murzakanov can still steal late frames with heavier counters and takedowns.

Biggest danger for Murzakanov, and for Reyes

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov: tiring and getting countered or taken down if he fails to finish early. Reyes: walking onto a heavy right hand early, since his chin has been tested before.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov risks absorbing kicks while waiting for a punching opening, particularly after his stoppage loss to Costa. Reyes risks being caught during an exchange or retreat by Murzakanov's sudden combinations.

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Azamat Murzakanov, the biggest danger is getting stuck at the end of Dominick Reyes's long straight lefts and high kicks while tiring in the later rounds. For Dominick Reyes, the biggest danger is trading in the pocket early against Murzakanov's fast hands and explosive counter power.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1, 17% here against 24% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1, 25% here against 20% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Reyes by decision, 14% here against 10% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 59 analyst picks, 49 back Murzakanov and 10 back Reyes. This model picks Murzakanov (64%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 59 analyst picks, 49 back Murzakanov and 10 back Reyes. This model picks Murzakanov (62%).

  • Gemini

    Of 59 analyst picks, 49 back Murzakanov and 10 back Reyes. This model picks Murzakanov (62%).

Which model is most confident on Murzakanov, and which on Reyes?

  • Claude

    On Murzakanov: Claude (64%). On Reyes: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: from 17% (Claude) to 25% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Claude

    Tom Feely (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), AJ Devito (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), DFS By The Numbers (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), Fite Feed (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), JakeGerberMMA (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1) and Aniki MMA (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Murzakanov, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 1).

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Claude

    Claude, which gave the actual result 11%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

claude-sonnet-5-5 · 23 Oct61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Murzakanov

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Murzakanov by KO/TKO, about 44 in 100

Win chance: Murzakanov 62%, Reyes 37%, draw or no contest 2%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO44%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov possesses fast hands and explosive counter-punching power in the pocket, which poses a major threat to Reyes and his historically vulnerable chin in early exchanges.

  2. Reyes by KO/TKO21%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes holds a substantial height and reach advantage and uses dangerous straight lefts and high kicks that can stop Murzakanov, especially if the pace slows down later.

  3. Murzakanov by decision16%

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Reyes survives the early power shots, Murzakanov can still win rounds by consistently landing the cleaner, heavier counters and mixing in timely takedowns.

When and how it ends
  1. Round 1: Murzakanov KO/TKO 23%, submission 1%; Reyes KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%.
  2. Round 2: Murzakanov KO/TKO 14%, submission 1%; Reyes KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%.
  3. Round 3: Murzakanov KO/TKO 7%, submission 1%; Reyes KO/TKO 5%, submission 1%.
  4. Decision: Murzakanov 16%; Reyes 14%.

Draw or no contest: 2%

Show every outcome as a table
Every outcome in Gemini's forecast, in percent
OutcomeR1R2R3Decision
Murzakanov KO/TKO23%14%7%—
Murzakanov Submission1%1%1%—
Murzakanov Decision———16%
Reyes KO/TKO9%7%5%—
Reyes Submission1%1%1%—
Reyes Decision———14%
Draw or no contest2%

Questions

The result 8 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Reyes: 37%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Reyes: 37%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Reyes: 34%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 44% (about 44 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 46% (about 46 in 100).

  • Claude

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (44%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (21%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (16%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov possesses fast hands and explosive counter-punching power in the pocket, which poses a major threat to Reyes and his historically vulnerable chin in early exchanges.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes holds a substantial height and reach advantage and uses dangerous straight lefts and high kicks that can stop Murzakanov, especially if the pace slows down later.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Reyes survives the early power shots, Murzakanov can still win rounds by consistently landing the cleaner, heavier counters and mixing in timely takedowns.
Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (46%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (15%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov's explosive, accurate punching matches up well against Reyes' vulnerability to clean counters. Reyes must repeatedly manage distance without giving him a decisive opening.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes has the length, kicking variety and power to hurt Murzakanov before he reaches punching range. Murzakanov's recent stoppage loss makes that threat harder to dismiss.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Reyes fights cautiously, Murzakanov can win rounds with selective damaging bursts. Three rounds give him a workable route without needing sustained high output.

  • Claude

    1. Murzakanov by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Reyes by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Murzakanov by decision (22%)

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard
    • Murzakanov by KO/TKO: Murzakanov has heavy hands and Reyes has been stopped before, so a clean early shot is the most likely single ending.
    • Murzakanov by decision: If Murzakanov survives the early exchanges and keeps his pace, he can take a close decision on power shots and damage.
    • Reyes by KO/TKO: Reyes' counter left hand and head kick can stop a tiring or aggressive Murzakanov, as Costa did.
How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    6 of 10, based on Murzakanov's 62% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Murzakanov's 64% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 69%. Decision: 30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 72%. Decision: 28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 70%. Decision: 29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

How does Murzakanov win?

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov wins 62%: KO/TKO 44%, submission 2%, decision 16%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov wins 62%: KO/TKO 46%, submission 2%, decision 15%.

  • Claude

    Murzakanov wins 64%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%, decision 22%.

How does Reyes win?

  • Gemini

    Reyes wins 37%: KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%, decision 14%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes wins 37%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 1%, decision 13%.

  • Claude

    Reyes wins 34%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 2%, decision 7%.

The fight in one sentence

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov is likely to catch Dominick Reyes with fast, heavy counters in the pocket for an early stoppage, or outscore him on the cards with cleaner power shots.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I expect Murzakanov's sharp punching bursts to overcome Reyes' reach, with a stoppage more likely than a comfortable fight.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Two power-punching light heavyweights trade early, and I expect Murzakanov's heavier hands to produce a stoppage or a narrow edge before cardio becomes a factor.

Timing 1 question

Which round is most likely to end it?

  • Gemini

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (49% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 33%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (50% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 36%.

  • Claude

    If it ends early, round 1 is most likely (42% of finishes). Chance of a round-1 finish overall: 29%.

What if 3 questions

If it gets past round 1, what changes?

  • Gemini

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 57% (from 62%), Reyes 41% (from 37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If Dominick Reyes survives the opening frame, the bout shifts into a more measured striking battle where his reach advantage and straight lefts become much more effective as Azamat Murzakanov's early explosiveness fades.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 57% (from 62%), Reyes 42% (from 37%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes gains opportunities to establish his kicks and make Murzakanov work across distance. Murzakanov remains dangerous, but prolonged inactivity could let Reyes collect rounds.

  • Claude

    If it gets past round 1: Murzakanov 66% (from 64%), Reyes 32% (from 34%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard If it survives round 1, Murzakanov's pace tends to fade, and Reyes' movement and counters plus occasional takedowns can even the fight. Murzakanov still keeps a one-shot threat.

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by decision (14%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes is most likely to win by surviving the early blitz, using his substantial height and reach advantage to keep Azamat Murzakanov at bay, and landing straight lefts or high kicks as the pace slows.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by decision (13%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes can keep the fight long with kicks and straight punches, then catch Murzakanov entering. Sustained body attacks could also expose the vulnerabilities shown against Costa.

  • Claude

    Reyes's most likely upset: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1 (11%).

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes wins by staying mobile, countering with the left hand and head kick, then outworking a slowing Murzakanov or mixing in wrestling to drain him.

What is each fighter's best path to victory?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov should close the distance behind tight defense to land explosive counter hooks in the pocket and mix in timely takedowns. Dominick Reyes should use his height and reach to keep the fight at kicking range, picking Murzakanov apart with straight lefts and high kicks.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov should pressure patiently, draw a committed strike and counter with compact combinations. Reyes should maintain distance, vary his kicks and exit sideways before Murzakanov can extend exchanges.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov: land heavy power shots early and finish before his cardio dips. Reyes: use distance and counters, avoid early exchanges, and win the later rounds on volume and takedowns.

What to watch 1 question

What should I watch for early?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Dominick Reyes can establish his jab and front kicks to maintain distance, or if Azamat Murzakanov easily slips inside to land heavy left hooks in the pocket.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Reyes can land kicks without being countered, and whether Murzakanov closes distance while keeping his feet underneath him.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Watch whether Murzakanov pressures and lands his right hand cleanly, and whether Reyes uses movement and counters or stands and trades.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Murzakanov.

After the fight 2 questions

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (44%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (46%).

  • Claude

    Result: Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1. Reyes by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Murzakanov by KO/TKO (40%).

How much chance did it give the actual result?

  • Gemini

    9% (about 9 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    10% (about 10 in 100).

  • Claude

    11% (about 11 in 100).

More questions (37)

The result 10 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 65%, submission 4%, decision 30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 69%, submission 3%, decision 28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 65%, submission 5%, decision 29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a draw or no contest

  • Gemini

    2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 46%, against 23% for Reyes.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 48%, against 24% for Reyes.

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 43%, against 27% for Reyes.

Can Murzakanov get the finish? Can Reyes?

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov: 46% (KO/TKO 44%, submission 2%). Reyes: 23% (KO/TKO 21%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov: 48% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 2%). Reyes: 24% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 1%).

  • Claude

    Murzakanov: 43% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 3%). Reyes: 27% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 21% and submitted in 2%. Reyes is knocked out in 44% and submitted in 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 1%. Reyes is knocked out in 46% and submitted in 2%.

  • Claude

    Murzakanov is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 2%. Reyes is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 3%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    A clear favourite: 62% vs 37%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 62% vs 37%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 34%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: 23%. Reyes by decision: 14%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: 25%. Reyes by decision: 13%.

  • Claude

    Murzakanov by decision: 22%. Reyes by KO/TKO in round 1: 11%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Reyes wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Reyes wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Reyes wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

How does this fight rank on the card (closest, most likely to end early)?

  • Gemini

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 2nd most likely to end early.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 11th closest, and the 3rd most likely to end early.

  • Claude

    Among 14 of 14 fights on the card with a forecast from this model: the 12th closest, and the most likely to end early.

Is this fight worth watching?

  • Gemini

    Not answered in this forecast.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, their contrasting ranges and dangerous counterpunching make even quiet exchanges feel consequential.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Yes, both men carry real knockout power and neither is shy about exchanging, so the fight has a high chance of a sudden ending.

Timing 6 questions

Chance it ends in round 1

  • Gemini

    33%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    36%.

  • Claude

    29%.

Chance it is over by round 2

  • Gemini

    56%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    59%.

  • Claude

    54%.

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    30%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    28%. Draw or no contest: 1%.

  • Claude

    29%. Draw or no contest: 2%.

Chance of a finish in the final round

  • Gemini

    Round 3: 13%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Round 3: 16%.

If it ends early (rounds 1–2), is it more likely a KO or a submission?

  • Gemini

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 96%, submission 5%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 97%, submission 3%.

  • Claude

    Of early finishes: KO/TKO 94%, submission 6%.

Who is favoured in a short fight vs a long one?

  • Gemini

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 69%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 38%, Reyes 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 68%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 55%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 40%, Reyes 19%.

  • Claude

    If it ends in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 61%. If it goes longer: Murzakanov 70%. Chance to win in rounds 1–2: Murzakanov 33%, Reyes 21%.

What if 2 questions

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Murzakanov 53%, Reyes 47%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Murzakanov 76%, Reyes 24%.

What could make this fight one-sided?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov could make this look effortless if he immediately slips past Dominick Reyes's jab and lands a fight-ending counter in the opening exchanges. Conversely, Reyes could cruise from the outside if he keeps Murzakanov at the end of his long reach.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov could dominate if Reyes retreats straight toward the fence and becomes reluctant to throw. That would let Murzakanov choose when to enter without facing enough return fire.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov could finish Reyes early if he lands clean and Reyes' chin fails again. Reyes could dominate if he controls the pace and Murzakanov tires.

What to watch 7 questions

What is the key matchup edge?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov holds the most important edge with his hand speed and counter-punching power in the pocket against Dominick Reyes's historically vulnerable chin.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov holds the edge in compact punching exchanges, where his speed and accuracy can exploit Reyes' vulnerability to clean power shots.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov has the power edge, while Reyes has the more varied game and better cardio. The power edge is slightly more likely to decide the bout.

What is the biggest X-factor?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes's chin and defensive composure under fire is the biggest X-factor, as his ability to absorb or evade early counter hooks will dictate whether the fight extends into a competitive battle.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov's response to his first stoppage loss is the biggest uncertainty, especially if Reyes lands meaningful kicks early.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov's arm health and his recovery from the Costa head-kick knockout, which affect both his durability and his output.

What would change the model's mind?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of a compromised weight cut or camp injury for Azamat Murzakanov, or evidence that Dominick Reyes plans a wrestling-heavy game plan to tire out his shorter opponent, would significantly shift this outlook.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Clear evidence that Murzakanov has not recovered physically from the Costa loss would shift my forecast toward Reyes. His ability to absorb kicks and maintain pressure matters most.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reports of an injury or visible signs of slowing, or Reyes beating him badly in early exchanges, would move me toward Reyes.

What are the biggest unknowns?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard It remains unclear how much durability Dominick Reyes retains when absorbing clean power shots, and how well Azamat Murzakanov's cardio will hold up if forced to chase a taller mover for three full rounds.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I could not establish either fighter's current injury status or detailed adjustments made during this training camp.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard The state of Murzakanov's arm injury, and whether Reyes' chin and durability have held up after his previous knockout losses.

Who wins the striking, and who wins the grappling?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Azamat Murzakanov should win the striking due to his superior hand speed and counter power in close, and he also holds the grappling edge through his compact wrestling base and timely takedowns.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard I lean Murzakanov in striking because of his sharper close-range counters, despite Reyes' reach. I give Murzakanov a tentative wrestling edge, but Reyes' takedown defense should limit its influence.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov should win the striking on raw power. Reyes should have the grappling edge, since Murzakanov's wrestling and cardio are weaker.

Who is better late in the fight?

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Dominick Reyes becomes more competitive in the later rounds if he maintains distance and Murzakanov slows down, though Murzakanov can still steal late frames with heavier counters and takedowns.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes has a slight conditional edge late if he preserves distance and avoids early damage. His varied kicks offer a sustainable scoring route, though neither fighter has a secure endurance advantage here.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Reyes is better placed late because he has the better cardio and a steadier pace, while Murzakanov tends to fade after the first round.

Biggest danger for Murzakanov, and for Reyes

  • Gemini

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard For Azamat Murzakanov, the biggest danger is getting stuck at the end of Dominick Reyes's long straight lefts and high kicks while tiring in the later rounds. For Dominick Reyes, the biggest danger is trading in the pocket early against Murzakanov's fast hands and explosive counter power.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov risks absorbing kicks while waiting for a punching opening, particularly after his stoppage loss to Costa. Reyes risks being caught during an exchange or retreat by Murzakanov's sudden combinations.

  • Claude

    AI model's own reasoning — not checked by FightCard Murzakanov: tiring and getting countered or taken down if he fails to finish early. Reyes: walking onto a heavy right hand early, since his chin has been tested before.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Reyes by decision, 14% here against 10% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1, 25% here against 20% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1, 17% here against 24% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 59 analyst picks, 49 back Murzakanov and 10 back Reyes. This model picks Murzakanov (62%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 59 analyst picks, 49 back Murzakanov and 10 back Reyes. This model picks Murzakanov (64%).

Which model is most confident on Murzakanov, and which on Reyes?

  • Gemini

    On Murzakanov: Claude (64%). On Reyes: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1: from 17% (Claude) to 25% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • Gemini

    Tom Feely (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), AJ Devito (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), DFS By The Numbers (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), Fite Feed (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1), JakeGerberMMA (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1) and Aniki MMA (Murzakanov by KO/TKO in round 1): the same winner, method and round as this model, tied; this model favours Murzakanov, most likely by KO/TKO (likeliest round 1).

How sure 5 questions

How good has this model been?

  • Gemini

    It picked the winner in 68 of 108 settled fights (63%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    It picked the winner in 63 of 108 settled fights (58%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

  • Claude

    It picked the winner in 61 of 101 settled fights (60%). Draws, no contests and even forecasts are left out.

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 23 Oct 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 23 Oct 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 23 Oct 2026, by claude-sonnet-5-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 2 questions

Which model was closest?

  • Gemini

    Claude, which gave the actual result 11%.

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    Yes.

Version not reported · 23 Oct68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 6 sportsbooks

64% Azamat Murzakanov
36% Dominick Reyes

Favoured: Murzakanov (64%) Upset

Reyes defeats Murzakanov · KO/TKO R1

Final pre-fight line · as of 24 Oct 13:30 UTC · 6 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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