UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Muhammad Saidov defeats Dustin Jacoby by KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:49
Jacoby vs Saidov — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Saidov landed the better strikes and showed speed from the opening round.
He increased the pressure in round two and hurt Jacoby to the body.
A high kick started the sequence that ended with the TKO at 4:49.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Abu Dhabi — Preliminary Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Jacoby
Jacoby makes his second start of 2026 after a second-round finish of Julius Walker in February. The UFC preview says this is his chance for a fourth consecutive win, giving the veteran a straightforward route to keep building momentum.
Case for Saidov
Saidov is unbeaten in nine professional fights with eight finishes and makes a quick return after stopping former UFC fighter Luis Henrique da Silva in 63 seconds in May. He trains at GOR MMA alongside Valter Walker, but this is his first UFC appearance against an established light heavyweight.
What We Were Watching For
- Jacoby's ability to extend a three-fight winning streak against a UFC newcomer.
- Whether Saidov's eight finishes in nine professional bouts translate against an established opponent.
- The opening exchanges after Saidov's quick May turnaround.
- How Jacoby handles the matchup change from Uran Satybaldiev to Saidov.
Records & career stats
- 22-9-1
- Record
- 9-0-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- Russia
- 38
- Age
- 30
- 76″193 cm
- Reach
- Not published
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 62%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 09:57
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 09:49
- Factory X Muay Thai
- Team
- Gor MMA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dustin Jacoby
Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO
Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview.
“when he would KO people. I am going to go with Dustin Jacobe, though. Come on”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO
Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Dustin Jacoby as its pick over Muhammad Said.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dustin Jacoby
Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO
Names Jacoby as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.
“I'm going with Sam Patterson. Next up, my boy Dustin Jacobe. Definitely taking”
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 50 25
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dustin Jacoby · Dec
Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO
Leans on Jacoby's veteran kickboxing and experience to outbox Saidov over three rounds, though he considers the debutant live.
“I'll go Dustin Jacoby by veteran savviness.”
* Says the pick could flip after the weigh-ins and further study.
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO
Favors Jacoby's higher-level experience, kickboxing, kicks, volume and cardio over Saidov's puncher's chance.
“you got to pick Jacobe. So yeah, I'm going Dustin Jacobe to win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dustin Jacoby
Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO
Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview.
“the odds are two to one. So Dustin Jacobe is the pick. Then we have”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dustin Jacoby
Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO
Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview.
“dude. So, I'm going to go with Dustin Jacoby by KO in the first round. Yeah,”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dustin Jacoby
Fight result: Muhammad Saidov · KO/TKO
Backs Jacoby’s kickboxing, improved takedown defense and cardio against a slower opponent whose large striking movements tire him out.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (17 hit, 14 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; FightIQ Miss; Michael Chiesa Miss; AJ Devito Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; HopperMMA Miss; Daniel Vreeland Miss.
Only 0 of 8 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.
Market Odds
No current consensus line is saved on this page.
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.