UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Ramazan Temirov defeats Steve Erceg by KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:21
Erceg vs Temirov — Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Temirov opened aggressively with heavy right hands.
He kept pursuing Erceg whenever Erceg looked for space.
A right hand folded Erceg and sent him to the canvas late in round one.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Abu Dhabi — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Erceg
Erceg wins on level and craft. 'Astro Boy' has shared the cage with the division's best — a five-round loss to former champion Brandon Moreno and a flyweight title shot against Alexandre Pantoja — and he has rebuilt with decisions over Tim Elliott and Ode' Osbourne. His well-rounded game and six career submissions give him more ways to win than Temirov has yet had to solve in the UFC.
Case for Temirov
Temirov wins if his hands land clean. He is a perfect 5-0 across his last five with eleven career knockouts, and he introduced himself to the UFC by out-pointing Charles Johnson and stopping C.J. Vergara inside a round. The southpaw pressure and one-shot power are real; if he turns it into a firefight, Erceg has been hurt before — Kai Kara-France stopped him in a single round.
What We Were Watching For
- Experience vs momentum: Erceg has fought for a title, while Temirov is a perfect 2-0 inside the UFC — does the jump in level tell?
- Erceg's grappling: can he take the power out of the fight by getting Temirov to the mat, where he holds a clear submission edge?
- Temirov's left hand: eleven KOs from a southpaw stance — the moment it lands flush is the moment the fight can end.
- The Kara-France echo: Erceg's one clean knockout loss came to a pressure puncher — does Temirov fit that same profile?
Records & career stats
- 4.56 4.73
- 56% 62%
- 4.14 3.65
- 67% 100%
- 57% 65%
- 14-4-0
- Record
- 19-3-0
- 2-3 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- Australia
- Nationality
- Uzbekistan
- 30
- Age
- 29
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 13:46
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 07:24
- Wilkes Martial Arts & Fitness Academy
- Team
- Legion Fight Club
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Erceg
Fight result: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO
Picks Steve Erceg for his cleaner striking, size and reach against Temirov.
“size and reach advantage. And one reason I'm going to pick Steve is he's not”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Erceg · Dec
Fight result: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Steve Erceg as its pick over Ramazan Temirov.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Erceg · Dec
Fight result: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO
Takes Erceg as the better minute-winner through striking, grappling and cardio if he avoids Temirov's early power.
“favorite in hindsight. But I'm going to go with Ersk here. I think he's even the”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Erceg
Fight result: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO
Picks Steve Erceg, citing the more proven and well-rounded fighter after Temirov's long layoff.
“step down in competition. Doesn't really make much sense.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Erceg · Dec
Fight result: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO
MMA Mania's UFC Abu Dhabi X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Steve Erceg by decision.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Steve Erceg · Dec
Fight result: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO
MMA Mania's UFC Abu Dhabi preview has Jesse Holland picking Steve Erceg by decision.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 49.1% (27 hit, 28 miss, across 55 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 method-scored calls on 55 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 27.8% (5 hit, 13 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 55 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ramazan Temirov
Fight result: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO
Calls it close but favors Temirov's explosiveness and more meaningful shots; he explicitly leaves finish versus decision open.
“be what gives Steve Ursk problems. I I I have to side with Tamarov in this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 50 25
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ramazan Temirov
Fight result: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO
Favors Temirov's explosive pressure, power and defensive wrestling over Erceg, while noting Erceg's toughness and grappling ability.
“I'm going Ramazan Temirov.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ramazan Temirov
Fight result: Ramazan Temirov · KO/TKO
Names Ramazan Temirov as the full-card pick in this preview.
“No, I'm kidding. I pick Raman. I bet on Ramazan.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; FightIQ Miss; Michael Chiesa Hit; AJ Devito Hit; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Jesse Holland Miss.
Only 3 of 9 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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