Erceg vs Temirov — Flyweight · UFC Fight Night
Red corner
- 14-4-0
- Record
- 19-3-0
- Wins
- 19
- Losses
- 3
- Draws
- 0
Blue corner
Expectations
- 3
- Analyst picksAnalysts — blue corner favoredAnalyst picksCounts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. A side label appears only when at least three picks are logged.
- 6
Full Tale of the Tape · +11 more stats · radar
- 14-4-0
- Record
- 19-3-0
- 2-3 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Southpaw
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Australia
- Nationality
- Uzbekistan
- Wilkes MMA
- Team
- Muradov Legion Team
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for Erceg
Erceg wins on level and craft. 'Astro Boy' has shared the cage with the division's best — a five-round loss to former champion Brandon Moreno and a flyweight title shot against Alexandre Pantoja — and he has rebuilt with decisions over Tim Elliott and Ode' Osbourne. His well-rounded game and six career submissions give him more ways to win than Temirov has yet had to solve in the UFC.
Case for Temirov
Temirov wins if his hands land clean. He is a perfect 5-0 across his last five with eleven career knockouts, and he introduced himself to the UFC by out-pointing Charles Johnson and stopping C.J. Vergara inside a round. The southpaw pressure and one-shot power are real; if he turns it into a firefight, Erceg has been hurt before — Kai Kara-France stopped him in a single round.
What to Watch
- Experience vs momentum: Erceg has fought for a title, while Temirov is a perfect 2-0 inside the UFC — does the jump in level tell?
- Erceg's grappling: can he take the power out of the fight by getting Temirov to the mat, where he holds a clear submission edge?
- Temirov's left hand: eleven KOs from a southpaw stance — the moment it lands flush is the moment the fight can end.
- The Kara-France echo: Erceg's one clean knockout loss came to a pressure puncher — does Temirov fit that same profile?
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
2 of 9 see a finish — 2 by KO/TKO, 1 by decision.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: picks Erceg — Decision
Takes Erceg as the better minute-winner through striking, grappling and cardio if he avoids Temirov's early power.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 20 of 33 HopperoMMA: picks Erceg — to win
Picks Steve Erceg, citing the more proven and well-rounded fighter after Temirov's long layoff.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: picks Erceg — to win
Picks Steve Erceg for his cleaner striking, size and reach against Temirov.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
Keith Shillan Analyst called 8 of 10 Keith Shillan: picks Temirov — KO/TKO · R1
Calls Erceg a composed boxer but vulnerable defensively, and backs Temirov's explosive right hand to find a late first-round knockout.
- Calls the matchup close but predicts Temirov's power is decisive.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
Ben Duffy Analyst called 9 of 10 Ben Duffy: picks Temirov — KO/TKO · R1
Acknowledges Erceg's encouraging win over Tim Elliott, but favors Temirov because Erceg's defensive lapses should give the heavier hitter a clean first-round finishing chance.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 10 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: picks Temirov — to win
Favors Temirov's explosive pressure, power and defensive wrestling over Erceg, while noting Erceg's toughness and grappling ability.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter track record building Michael Chiesa: picks Temirov — to win
Calls it close but favors Temirov's explosiveness and more meaningful shots; he explicitly leaves finish versus decision open.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 8 of 10 JakeGerberMMA: picks Temirov — to win
Names Ramazan Temirov as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 22 of 37 We Want Picks: picks Temirov — to win
Names Ramazan Temirov as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 37 resolved picks.
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