Walker vs Petersen — Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night
Red corner
- 15-1-0
- Record
- 11-4-0
Blue corner
Expectations
- 6
- Analyst picksAnalysts — red corner favoredAnalyst picksCounts all published analyst picks logged for this fight. A side label appears only when at least three picks are logged.
- 1
Full Tale of the Tape · +10 more stats · radar
- 15-1-0
- Record
- 11-4-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
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- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
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- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Brazil
- Nationality
- United States
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
What to expect
Case for Walker
Walker arrives with a remarkable four-fight run of heel-hook submissions, each from a different entry and finishing mechanic according to the UFC's event preview. That repetition makes the early grappling exchanges the central question: he has shown he can find the same finish by several routes.
Case for Petersen
Petersen comes in after an emotional split-decision victory and is trying to build on that result. If he can keep Walker from turning transitions into leg entanglements, he gives himself a path to make this a longer heavyweight fight.
What to Watch
- The first grappling scramble: can Walker find an entry to the legs?
- Petersen's response after the split-decision win: can he carry that momentum into a very different problem?
- Whether Petersen can reset after a takedown or clinch rather than accept a prolonged ground exchange.
- How quickly Walker's submission threat changes the striking and wrestling choices.
Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
2 of 7 see a finish — 2 by submission, 1 by decision.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: picks Walker — Sub · R1
Calls Walker's familiar heel-hook route for a first-round submission.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: picks Walker — Sub
Keeps backing Walker's heel hook until it fails, seeing Petersen as a favorable matchup for another submission.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Michael Chiesa AnalystFighter track record building Michael Chiesa: picks Walker — to win
Names Walker as his preliminary-card pick without a method call.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 8 of 10 JakeGerberMMA: picks Walker — to win
Names Valter Walker as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 20 of 33 HopperoMMA: picks Walker — to win
Names Valter Walker as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 22 of 37 We Want Picks: picks Walker — to win
Names Valter Walker as the full-card pick in this preview.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 37 resolved picks.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: picks Petersen — Decision
Picks Thomas Petersen by decision in a deliberately contrarian call.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
Fan Picks
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Videos
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Before the fight · 1 clip
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