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View video on X ↗Ismail Naurdiev defeats Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision
Unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Vettori vs Naurdiev — Middleweight · UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(17) 43%
57% (23)
AI Predictions
50%
50%
Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right nowBook prices available in Market
Checking latest live market odds.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Naurdiev was the more effective fighter in the first round, landing with more force and variety.
He carried that into the start of the second, where he had Vettori in trouble at one point.
Vettori found some success as the fight went on but could not outscore him, and all three judges had it 29-28 for Naurdiev.
- primaryUFC 332 prelim results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Vettori
Vettori brings durable pressure and veteran experience.
Case for Naurdiev
Naurdiev brings movement and a countering route.
What We Were Watching For
- Who controls the pace.
- Whether Vettori can sustain pressure.
Records & career stats
- 4.74 3.66
- 56% 64%
- 4.57 2.22
- 67% 74%
- 58% 73%
- 19-10-1
- Record
- 25-8-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Italy
- Nationality
- Morocco
- 32
- Age
- 30
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 17:02
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 13:18
- Kings MMA - Huntington Beach, CA
- Team
- Team Naurdiev
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(17) 43%
LVettori
57% (23)
NaurdievW
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Jimbo Ortega MMA selects Marvin Vettori in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.9% 38 18
- Method Accuracy 62.1% 18 11
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
Michael Chiesa
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Chiesa thinks Vettori is settling after training changes and injuries. He hopes to see Vettori return to the volume and output that helped him reach a title fight.
“I'm going with Vtori in this one.”
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 50 25
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Leans toward Vettori despite concern about his recent losses. Expects his output over three rounds to be enough and questions Naurdiev’s level of opposition.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Jake picks Marvin Vettori by decision.
“Smith by knockout, Vettori by decision,”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Livid Larry MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Livid Larry MMA selects Marvin Vettori by decision.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.0% 34 20
- Method Accuracy 79.2% 19 5
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
HopperMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
HopperoMMA selects Marvin Vettori.
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
KingofCrackdown5095
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Sub · Round 3
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Marvin Vettori by third-round submission.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.7% 37 26
- Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11
- Round Accuracy 42.1% 8 11
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Angelo Bodetti
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Bodetti favors Vettori’s experience against stronger opposition and expects him to combine his skills more effectively than Naurdiev. He calls a decision but expects a modest fantasy score.
Track record: winner called in 29 of 50 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.0% (29 hit, 21 miss, across 50 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 50 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.0% 29 21
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
BeewolfMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Trusts Vettori’s experience against stronger opposition and sees him as the better striker and grappler. Expects a safe approach and a decision rather than a finish.
Track record: winner called in 13 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (13 hit, 10 miss, across 23 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (7 hit, 0 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 83.3% (5 hit, 1 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 13 10
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 7
- Round Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Litterine selects Marvin Vettori in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Greedo Plays MMA selects Marvin Vettori by decision.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
mmadbm
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Picks Vettori by decision because his durability, cardio and sustained output should outlast Naurdiev’s early explosiveness. He also sees a grappling advantage and wants Vettori to use the clinch and wrestling to slow Naurdiev down.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (12 hit, 2 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 41 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Method Accuracy 85.7% 12 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Gerardo Rivas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Favors Vettori’s durability, volume, experience and ability to mix in wrestling.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
Chris Cross
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Chris Cross picks Marvin Vettori to finally get his 20th professional win by decision.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (8 hit, 12 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Josh Schonwald
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Josh Schonwald selects Marvin Vettori in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 6 9
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Carlos Cano
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Favors Vettori’s pace, durability and punching volume and doubts Naurdiev will knock him out.
Track record: winner called in 3 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 10 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 10 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Andio
Current pick evidence
Picked: Marvin Vettori · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Andio selects Marvin Vettori by decision.
Track record: winner called in 2 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 18.2% (2 hit, 9 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 11 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 18.2% 2 9
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
Hank
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Thinks Vettori can win but expects Naurdiev to edge a decision.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 91.7% (11 hit, 1 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 90.9% (10 hit, 1 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 44.4% (4 hit, 5 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 91.7% 11 1
- Method Accuracy 90.9% 10 1
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Bedtime expects Naurdiev to edge a 29–28 decision because he sees Vettori as too inactive and lacking damaging offense. He doubts Vettori’s takedowns will produce sustained control, while acknowledging that Naurdiev tiring could open a submission opportunity for Vettori.
“I think Nerdy is going to win by decision. 2928.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
TheWeasle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
He describes this as close and says Vettori could win by pressing and wrestling, using his chin to remain in exchanges. Still, he sees Naurdiev as faster, more powerful, and the more technical striker, with the greater damage leading to a decision.
- He identifies Vettori's pressure and takedowns as a plausible opposing route.
“I'm going to go with Ishmail Nardiv getting the win by decision.”
* He calls it very close and says he can see Vettori winning if he pressures and shoots takedowns.
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Ismail Naurdiev as its pick over Marvin Vettori.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Tom Feely
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Feely questions Vettori’s current form and favors Naurdiev’s sharper early work. He predicts Naurdiev takes a decision.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.6% 23 11
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 5 5
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
Matt
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Fades Vettori’s recent performances and expects Naurdiev to win the first two rounds before tiring; doubts he finishes Vettori.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Fite Feed
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Expects Naurdiev to land the bigger, more damaging shots and win the first two rounds, while leaving room for Vettori to rally late.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.9% 24 13
- Method Accuracy 60.9% 14 9
- Round Accuracy 21.4% 3 11
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Mate Bersenadze
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Mate Bersenadze picks Ismail Naurdiev by decision, per his UFC 332 preview.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.5% 33 19
- Method Accuracy 51.5% 17 16
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Picks with the Geek 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Expects Naurdiev to beat Vettori in the striking and grappling exchanges, though he worries about Vettori’s pressure.
Track record: winner called in 5 of 8 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (5 hit, 3 miss, across 8 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 5 3
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
James Lynch
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Lynch picks Naurdiev by decision.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.0% 36 23
- Method Accuracy 45.0% 9 11
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
MMA Mathletes
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
MMA Mathletes selects Ismail Naurdiev by decision.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.3% 32 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Kunath
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Kunath selects Ismail Naurdiev by decision.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.5% 38 27
- Method Accuracy 56.7% 17 13
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
The Octagon Oracle
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Expects Naurdiev’s faster overhands to land against Vettori’s defense, while leaving open the possibility of a finish.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (6 hit, 1 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method Accuracy 85.7% 6 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Expects Naurdiev’s speed, athleticism and wider striking arsenal to outland Vettori, whose recent performances he distrusts. Vettori’s durability leads him to a decision pick.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Fight Productions selects Ismail Naurdiev by decision.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Clenbat
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Clenbat selects Ismail Naurdiev in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 49 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.1% (27 hit, 22 miss, across 49 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 49 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.1% 27 22
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
The Finz Chats
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
The Finz Chats selects Ismail Naurdiev by decision.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 22 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.5% (12 hit, 10 miss, across 22 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 22 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.5% 12 10
- Method Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · Dec
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Schweppe picks Ismail Naurdiev by decision.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
D.Rose
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Favors Naurdiev’s pressure and power against a hittable Vettori who has not been using his wrestling; declines to bet.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 80.0% (4 hit, 1 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.4% 11 10
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
The MMA Yuda selects Ismail Naurdiev.
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Walk The Line MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Walk The Line MMA selects Ismail Naurdiev.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 27 27
- Method Accuracy 57.9% 11 8
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
Vinny
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
Favors Naurdiev’s slicker skills and sees him winning on the feet, while also allowing a ground finish.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (6 hit, 6 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 4 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
- Method Accuracy 16.7% 1 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 4
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
FIGHT//AI
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ismail Naurdiev
Fight result: Ismail Naurdiev · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s selected value bet names Ismail Naurdiev.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Hank Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Miss; Tom Feely Hit; Michael Chiesa Miss; Matt Hit; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; Fite Feed Hit; Mate Bersenadze Hit; Livid Larry MMA Miss; Picks with the Geek 2 Hit; HopperMMA Miss; James Lynch Hit; MMA Mathletes Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Kunath Hit; The Octagon Oracle Hit; Angelo Bodetti Miss; Artem MMA Hit; BeewolfMMA Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Hit; Clenbat Hit; The Finz Chats Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; D.Rose Hit; The MMA Yuda Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; Walk The Line MMA Hit; Vinny Hit; mmadbm Miss; Gerardo Rivas Miss; Chris Cross Miss; Josh Schonwald Miss; FIGHT//AI Hit; Carlos Cano Miss; Andio Miss.
23 of 40 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Naurdiev · Decision · R3
Closest probability Claude put 55% on Naurdiev.
58%
Vettori
42%
Naurdiev
PickVettori · DecisionActualNaurdiev · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
45%
Vettori
55%
Naurdiev
PickNaurdiev · KO/TKO · R2ActualNaurdiev · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing round
47%
Vettori
53%
Naurdiev
PickNaurdiev · DecisionActualNaurdiev · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Vettori
Most likely: Vettori by decision, about 44 in 100
Win chance: Vettori 58%, Naurdiev 42%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Naurdiev
Most likely: Vettori by decision, about 34 in 100
Win chance: Vettori 45%, Naurdiev 55%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Naurdiev
Most likely: Naurdiev by decision, about 46 in 100
Win chance: Vettori 47%, Naurdiev 53%.
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
1 of 3 models pick Vettori; 2 of 3 models pick Naurdiev.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Vettori: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Naurdiev: 42%.
Claude
Naurdiev: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Vettori: 45%.
Gemini
Naurdiev: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Vettori: 47%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Vettori by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
Claude
Vettori by decision: 34% (about 34 in 100).
Gemini
Naurdiev by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Vettori by decision (44%); 2. Naurdiev by decision (33%); 3. Vettori by submission (9%)
Claude
1. Vettori by decision (34%); 2. Naurdiev by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Naurdiev by decision (19%)
Gemini
1. Naurdiev by decision (46%); 2. Vettori by decision (40%); 3. Naurdiev by KO/TKO (5%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vettori's 58% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Naurdiev's 55% win chance.
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Naurdiev's 53% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 23%. Decision: 77%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%.
How does Vettori win?
ChatGPT
Vettori wins 58%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%, decision 44%.
Claude
Vettori wins 45%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%, decision 34%.
Gemini
Vettori wins 47%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
How does Naurdiev win?
ChatGPT
Naurdiev wins 42%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 33%.
Claude
Naurdiev wins 55%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%, decision 19%.
Gemini
Naurdiev wins 53%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 46%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Naurdiev's most likely upset: Naurdiev by decision (33%).
Claude
Vettori's most likely upset: Vettori by decision (34%).
Gemini
Vettori's most likely upset: Vettori by decision (40%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Vettori, Claude: Naurdiev, Gemini: Naurdiev).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vettori by decision (44%).
Claude
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vettori by decision (34%).
Gemini
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
33% (about 33 in 100).
Claude
19% (about 19 in 100).
Gemini
46% (about 46 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 12%, submission 11%, decision 77%.
Claude
KO/TKO 35%, submission 12%, decision 53%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 86%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Vettori: 14%, against 9% for Naurdiev.
Claude
Naurdiev: 36%, against 11% for Vettori.
Gemini
Even: each finishes the other 7% of the time.
Can Vettori get the finish? Can Naurdiev?
ChatGPT
Vettori: 14% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%). Naurdiev: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%).
Claude
Vettori: 11% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%). Naurdiev: 36% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%).
Gemini
Vettori: 7% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%). Naurdiev: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Vettori is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 9%.
Claude
Vettori is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 6%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 6%.
Gemini
Vettori is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 4%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Vettori by decision: 44%. Naurdiev by decision: 33%.
Gemini
Vettori by decision: 40%. Naurdiev by decision: 46%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Naurdiev wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Vettori wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Vettori wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
77%.
Claude
53%.
Gemini
86%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 57%, Naurdiev 43%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 64%, Naurdiev 36%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 47%, Naurdiev 54%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Naurdiev by decision, 46% here against 26% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Vettori (58%).
Claude
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Naurdiev (55%).
Gemini
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Naurdiev (53%).
Which model is most confident on Vettori, and which on Naurdiev?
All models
On Vettori: ChatGPT (58%). On Naurdiev: Claude (55%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Naurdiev by decision: from 19% (Claude) to 46% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Chris Cross (Vettori by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Vettori by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Vettori by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Vettori by decision), Andio (Vettori by decision), Carlos Cano (Vettori by decision), Gerardo Rivas (Vettori by decision), mmadbm (Vettori by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Vettori by decision) and BeewolfMMA (Vettori by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Vettori, most likely by decision.
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Naurdiev by decision), James Lynch (Naurdiev by decision), Tom Feely (Naurdiev by decision), The Finz Chats (Naurdiev by decision), Fight Productions (Naurdiev by decision), MMA Mathletes (Naurdiev by decision), Kunath (Naurdiev by decision), Fite Feed (Naurdiev by decision), The Octagon Oracle (Naurdiev by decision), Hank (Naurdiev by decision), Matt (Naurdiev by decision), Artem MMA (Naurdiev by decision), TheWeasle (Naurdiev by decision), Bedtime MMA (Naurdiev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Naurdiev by decision) and FightIQ (Naurdiev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Naurdiev, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
All models
Gemini, which gave the actual result 46%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Vettori
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Vettori by decision, about 44 in 100
Win chance: Vettori 58%, Naurdiev 42%.
Most likely outcomes
- Vettori by decision44%
- Naurdiev by decision33%
- Vettori by submission9%
- KO/TKO: Vettori 5%, Naurdiev 7%.
- Submission: Vettori 9%, Naurdiev 2%.
- Decision: Vettori 44%, Naurdiev 33%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Vettori: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Naurdiev: 42%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Naurdiev: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Vettori: 45%.
Gemini
Naurdiev: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Vettori: 47%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Vettori by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Vettori by decision: 34% (about 34 in 100).
Gemini
Naurdiev by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Vettori by decision (44%); 2. Naurdiev by decision (33%); 3. Vettori by submission (9%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Vettori by decision (34%); 2. Naurdiev by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Naurdiev by decision (19%)
Gemini
1. Naurdiev by decision (46%); 2. Vettori by decision (40%); 3. Naurdiev by KO/TKO (5%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vettori's 58% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
6 of 10, based on Naurdiev's 55% win chance.
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Naurdiev's 53% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 23%. Decision: 77%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%.
How does Vettori win?
ChatGPT
Vettori wins 58%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%, decision 44%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Vettori wins 45%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%, decision 34%.
Gemini
Vettori wins 47%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
How does Naurdiev win?
ChatGPT
Naurdiev wins 42%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 33%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Naurdiev wins 55%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%, decision 19%.
Gemini
Naurdiev wins 53%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 46%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Naurdiev's most likely upset: Naurdiev by decision (33%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Vettori's most likely upset: Vettori by decision (34%).
Gemini
Vettori's most likely upset: Vettori by decision (40%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Vettori, Claude: Naurdiev, Gemini: Naurdiev).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vettori by decision (44%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vettori by decision (34%).
Gemini
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
33% (about 33 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
19% (about 19 in 100).
Gemini
46% (about 46 in 100).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 12%, submission 11%, decision 77%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 35%, submission 12%, decision 53%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 86%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Vettori: 14%, against 9% for Naurdiev.
Other models' answers
Claude
Naurdiev: 36%, against 11% for Vettori.
Gemini
Even: each finishes the other 7% of the time.
Can Vettori get the finish? Can Naurdiev?
ChatGPT
Vettori: 14% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%). Naurdiev: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Vettori: 11% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%). Naurdiev: 36% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%).
Gemini
Vettori: 7% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%). Naurdiev: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Vettori is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 9%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Vettori is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 6%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 6%.
Gemini
Vettori is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 4%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Other models' answers
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Vettori by decision: 44%. Naurdiev by decision: 33%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Vettori by decision: 40%. Naurdiev by decision: 46%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Naurdiev wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Vettori wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Vettori wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
77%.
Other models' answers
Claude
53%.
Gemini
86%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 57%, Naurdiev 43%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 64%, Naurdiev 36%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 47%, Naurdiev 54%.
Compared with others 4 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Vettori (58%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Naurdiev (55%).
Gemini
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Naurdiev (53%).
Which model is most confident on Vettori, and which on Naurdiev?
ChatGPT
On Vettori: ChatGPT (58%). On Naurdiev: Claude (55%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Naurdiev by decision: from 19% (Claude) to 46% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Chris Cross (Vettori by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Vettori by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Vettori by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Vettori by decision), Andio (Vettori by decision), Carlos Cano (Vettori by decision), Gerardo Rivas (Vettori by decision), mmadbm (Vettori by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Vettori by decision) and BeewolfMMA (Vettori by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Vettori, most likely by decision.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Naurdiev by decision), James Lynch (Naurdiev by decision), Tom Feely (Naurdiev by decision), The Finz Chats (Naurdiev by decision), Fight Productions (Naurdiev by decision), MMA Mathletes (Naurdiev by decision), Kunath (Naurdiev by decision), Fite Feed (Naurdiev by decision), The Octagon Oracle (Naurdiev by decision), Hank (Naurdiev by decision), Matt (Naurdiev by decision), Artem MMA (Naurdiev by decision), TheWeasle (Naurdiev by decision), Bedtime MMA (Naurdiev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Naurdiev by decision) and FightIQ (Naurdiev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Naurdiev, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
ChatGPT
Gemini, which gave the actual result 46%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 27 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Naurdiev
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Vettori by decision, about 34 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Vettori 45%, Naurdiev 55%.
Most likely outcomes
- Vettori by decision34%
- Naurdiev by KO/TKO30%
- Naurdiev by decision19%
- KO/TKO: Vettori 5%, Naurdiev 30%.
- Submission: Vettori 6%, Naurdiev 6%.
- Decision: Vettori 34%, Naurdiev 19%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Naurdiev: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Vettori: 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Naurdiev: 42%.
Gemini
Naurdiev: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Vettori: 47%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Vettori by decision: 34% (about 34 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
Gemini
Naurdiev by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Vettori by decision (34%); 2. Naurdiev by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Naurdiev by decision (19%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Vettori by decision (44%); 2. Naurdiev by decision (33%); 3. Vettori by submission (9%)
Gemini
1. Naurdiev by decision (46%); 2. Vettori by decision (40%); 3. Naurdiev by KO/TKO (5%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
6 of 10, based on Naurdiev's 55% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vettori's 58% win chance.
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Naurdiev's 53% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 23%. Decision: 77%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%.
How does Vettori win?
Claude
Vettori wins 45%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%, decision 34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori wins 58%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%, decision 44%.
Gemini
Vettori wins 47%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
How does Naurdiev win?
Claude
Naurdiev wins 55%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%, decision 19%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Naurdiev wins 42%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 33%.
Gemini
Naurdiev wins 53%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 46%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Vettori's most likely upset: Vettori by decision (34%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Naurdiev's most likely upset: Naurdiev by decision (33%).
Gemini
Vettori's most likely upset: Vettori by decision (40%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Vettori, Claude: Naurdiev, Gemini: Naurdiev).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vettori by decision (34%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vettori by decision (44%).
Gemini
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Claude
19% (about 19 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
33% (about 33 in 100).
Gemini
46% (about 46 in 100).
More questions (17)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 35%, submission 12%, decision 53%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 12%, submission 11%, decision 77%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 86%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Naurdiev: 36%, against 11% for Vettori.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori: 14%, against 9% for Naurdiev.
Gemini
Even: each finishes the other 7% of the time.
Can Vettori get the finish? Can Naurdiev?
Claude
Vettori: 11% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%). Naurdiev: 36% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori: 14% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%). Naurdiev: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%).
Gemini
Vettori: 7% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%). Naurdiev: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Vettori is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 6%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 6%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 9%.
Gemini
Vettori is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 4%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Vettori wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Naurdiev wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Vettori wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
53%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
77%.
Gemini
86%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 64%, Naurdiev 36%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 57%, Naurdiev 43%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 47%, Naurdiev 54%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Naurdiev (55%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Vettori (58%).
Gemini
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Naurdiev (53%).
Which model is most confident on Vettori, and which on Naurdiev?
Claude
On Vettori: ChatGPT (58%). On Naurdiev: Claude (55%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Naurdiev by decision: from 19% (Claude) to 46% (Gemini).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Claude
Gemini, which gave the actual result 46%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 27 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Naurdiev
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Naurdiev by decision, about 46 in 100
Win chance: Vettori 47%, Naurdiev 53%.
Most likely outcomes
- Naurdiev by decision46%
- Vettori by decision40%
- Naurdiev by KO/TKO5%
- KO/TKO: Vettori 3%, Naurdiev 5%.
- Submission: Vettori 4%, Naurdiev 2%.
- Decision: Vettori 40%, Naurdiev 46%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Naurdiev: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Vettori: 47%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Naurdiev: 42%.
Claude
Naurdiev: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Vettori: 45%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Naurdiev by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori by decision: 44% (about 44 in 100).
Claude
Vettori by decision: 34% (about 34 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Naurdiev by decision (46%); 2. Vettori by decision (40%); 3. Naurdiev by KO/TKO (5%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Vettori by decision (44%); 2. Naurdiev by decision (33%); 3. Vettori by submission (9%)
Claude
1. Vettori by decision (34%); 2. Naurdiev by KO/TKO (30%); 3. Naurdiev by decision (19%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Naurdiev's 53% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vettori's 58% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Naurdiev's 55% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 23%. Decision: 77%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 47%. Decision: 53%.
How does Vettori win?
Gemini
Vettori wins 47%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori wins 58%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%, decision 44%.
Claude
Vettori wins 45%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%, decision 34%.
How does Naurdiev win?
Gemini
Naurdiev wins 53%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 46%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Naurdiev wins 42%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 33%.
Claude
Naurdiev wins 55%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%, decision 19%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Vettori's most likely upset: Vettori by decision (40%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Naurdiev's most likely upset: Naurdiev by decision (33%).
Claude
Vettori's most likely upset: Vettori by decision (34%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Vettori, Claude: Naurdiev, Gemini: Naurdiev).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vettori by decision (44%).
Claude
Result: Naurdiev by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vettori by decision (34%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Gemini
46% (about 46 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
33% (about 33 in 100).
Claude
19% (about 19 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 86%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 12%, submission 11%, decision 77%.
Claude
KO/TKO 35%, submission 12%, decision 53%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Even: each finishes the other 7% of the time.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori: 14%, against 9% for Naurdiev.
Claude
Naurdiev: 36%, against 11% for Vettori.
Can Vettori get the finish? Can Naurdiev?
Gemini
Vettori: 7% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%). Naurdiev: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori: 14% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 9%). Naurdiev: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%).
Claude
Vettori: 11% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 6%). Naurdiev: 36% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Vettori is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 4%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 9%.
Claude
Vettori is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 6%. Naurdiev is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 6%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Vettori by decision: 40%. Naurdiev by decision: 46%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vettori by decision: 44%. Naurdiev by decision: 33%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Vettori wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Naurdiev wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Vettori wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
86%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
77%.
Claude
53%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 47%, Naurdiev 54%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 57%, Naurdiev 43%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vettori 64%, Naurdiev 36%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Naurdiev by decision, 46% here against 26% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Naurdiev (53%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Vettori (58%).
Claude
Of 40 analyst picks, 17 back Vettori and 23 back Naurdiev. This model picks Naurdiev (55%).
Which model is most confident on Vettori, and which on Naurdiev?
Gemini
On Vettori: ChatGPT (58%). On Naurdiev: Claude (55%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Naurdiev by decision: from 19% (Claude) to 46% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Naurdiev by decision), James Lynch (Naurdiev by decision), Tom Feely (Naurdiev by decision), The Finz Chats (Naurdiev by decision), Fight Productions (Naurdiev by decision), MMA Mathletes (Naurdiev by decision), Kunath (Naurdiev by decision), Fite Feed (Naurdiev by decision), The Octagon Oracle (Naurdiev by decision), Hank (Naurdiev by decision), Matt (Naurdiev by decision), Artem MMA (Naurdiev by decision), TheWeasle (Naurdiev by decision), Bedtime MMA (Naurdiev by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Naurdiev by decision) and FightIQ (Naurdiev by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Naurdiev, most likely by decision.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Chris Cross (Vettori by decision), Livid Larry MMA (Vettori by decision), JakeGerberMMA (Vettori by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Vettori by decision), Andio (Vettori by decision), Carlos Cano (Vettori by decision), Gerardo Rivas (Vettori by decision), mmadbm (Vettori by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Vettori by decision) and BeewolfMMA (Vettori by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Vettori, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Gemini
Gemini, which gave the actual result 46%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 29 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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