Eric Nolan defeats Court McGee by KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:26
McGee vs Nolan — Welterweight · UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
McGee started sharply and did well for much of the first round.
Nolan landed an elbow on the break just before the horn that wobbled McGee, and he landed the bigger blows over the next two rounds.
He hurt McGee in the back half of the third and chased down the finish, ending McGee's UFC career.
- primaryUFC 332 prelim results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for McGee
McGee brings veteran welterweight composure and pressure.
Case for Nolan
Nolan brings a developing game and pace challenge.
What We Were Watching For
- Who dictates the tempo.
- How Nolan handles McGee's pressure.
Records & career stats
- 22-14-0
- Record
- 8-5-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- United States
- 41
- Age
- 28
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- Source pending
- 5
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- —
- 12:40
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 11:49
- Agema Jiu-Jitsu
- Team
- Dante Rivera BJJ
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Court McGee · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Feely acknowledges Nolan may be the more sensible pick, but sees an early opening for hometown veteran McGee. He makes the sentimental pick for McGee by submission in the first round.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 34 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.6% (23 hit, 11 miss, across 34 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 method-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (5 hit, 5 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 34 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 34 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.6% 23 11
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 5 5
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Court McGee
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Chiesa expects McGee to bring pressure and notes Nolan's struggles with wrestling. He sees Nolan as a less dangerous finishing threat than the opponents who previously stopped McGee, and does not see Nolan winning a decision.
“I'm taking Court McGee over Eric Nolan.”
Track record: winner called in 50 of 75 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (50 hit, 25 miss, across 75 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 75 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 75 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 50 25
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Court McGee · Sub
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Kunath selects Court McGee by submission.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.5% (38 hit, 27 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 56.7% (17 hit, 13 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.5% 38 27
- Method Accuracy 56.7% 17 13
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Court McGee
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Vreeland backs McGee on the moneyline without naming a method.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (17 hit, 14 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Court McGee · Dec
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
The Finz Chats selects Court McGee by decision.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 22 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.5% (12 hit, 10 miss, across 22 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 22 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.5% 12 10
- Method Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Court McGee · Dec
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Favors McGee’s veteran trips, pace and cardio in his home state at elevation to drag the fight to a decision.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.4% (11 hit, 10 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 80.0% (4 hit, 1 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.4% 11 10
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Court McGee
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Picks Court McGee to win, but hedges between a decision and a possible KO; the method is therefore left unset.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (8 hit, 12 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Court McGee · Dec
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Marley picks Court McGee by split decision.
Track record: winner called in 2 of 5 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 5 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Court McGee
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s selected value bet names Court McGee.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Expects Nolan’s speed and punching to overwhelm the older McGee.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 91.7% (11 hit, 1 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 90.9% (10 hit, 1 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 44.4% (4 hit, 5 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 91.7% 11 1
- Method Accuracy 90.9% 10 1
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Bedtime backs Nolan’s boxing, speed and damaging strikes, expecting him to see and stop McGee’s takedown attempts. He acknowledges McGee’s grappling threat but expects Nolan to win by knockout.
- Calls a knockout in the first or second round; no single round is selected.
“Jesus I'm going to go with Eric Nolan by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
He expects Nolan to be more athletic, powerful, and fast, with stronger boxing combinations and knees. He thinks Nolan can make McGee react to hand pressure with a takedown and time a knee, while McGee's toughness may keep the fight competitive; his pick is Nolan by third-round knockout.
- He specifically expects Nolan to time a knee when McGee reacts to pressure with a takedown.
“So, Eric Nolan knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · Dec
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Eric Nolan as its pick over Court McGee.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Jimbo Ortega MMA selects Eric Nolan by ko/tko.
Track record: winner called in 38 of 56 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.9% (38 hit, 18 miss, across 56 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.1% (18 hit, 11 miss, across 29 method-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 56 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (4 hit, 4 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 56 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.9% 38 18
- Method Accuracy 62.1% 18 11
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Expects Nolan’s youth and power to exploit McGee’s aging chin for a first-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 14 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.7% (14 hit, 7 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 66.7% (6 hit, 3 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 21 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 14 7
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Favors Nolan’s power and finishing ability over McGee’s recent vulnerability on the feet. Thinks Nolan’s work on his grappling helps address the gaps in his overall game.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Jake picks Eric Nolan by knockout.
“prelims, we're going Nolan by knockout,”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Expects Nolan’s boxing and youth to take over the striking exchanges as the fight reaches round two.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 37 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.9% (24 hit, 13 miss, across 37 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.9% (14 hit, 9 miss, across 23 method-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 21.4% (3 hit, 11 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 37 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 37 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.9% 24 13
- Method Accuracy 60.9% 14 9
- Round Accuracy 21.4% 3 11
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · Dec
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Mate Bersenadze picks Eric Nolan by decision, per his UFC 332 preview.
Track record: winner called in 33 of 52 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.5% (33 hit, 19 miss, across 52 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 51.5% (17 hit, 16 miss, across 33 method-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 52 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 52 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.5% 33 19
- Method Accuracy 51.5% 17 16
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Livid Larry MMA selects Eric Nolan by ko/tko.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.0% (34 hit, 20 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 79.2% (19 hit, 5 miss, across 24 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.5% (5 hit, 8 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.0% 34 20
- Method Accuracy 79.2% 19 5
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
HopperoMMA selects Eric Nolan by ko/tko in round 1.
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · Dec
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Lynch picks Nolan by decision, expecting McGee to be difficult to finish.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.0% 36 23
- Method Accuracy 45.0% 9 11
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
MMA Mathletes selects Eric Nolan.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.3% (32 hit, 22 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.3% 32 22
- Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Eric Nolan by second-round TKO.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.7% 37 26
- Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11
- Round Accuracy 42.1% 8 11
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Favors Nolan against an aging McGee but is cautious because Nolan has struggled against wrestling.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (6 hit, 1 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method Accuracy 85.7% 6 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · Dec
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Bodetti favors Nolan’s youth and expects McGee’s toughness and wrestling to slow the fight. He picks Nolan but avoids the matchup for DraftKings because he does not expect a finish.
Track record: winner called in 29 of 50 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.0% (29 hit, 21 miss, across 50 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 50 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 50 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.0% 29 21
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Expects Nolan’s speed and power to overwhelm McGee if he defends the takedowns. Doubts McGee can control him as effectively as Hassanov did, but dislikes Nolan’s price.
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Expects Nolan’s boxing and power to find a finish against a McGee he considers past his best. Sees this matchup as a chance for Nolan to show his skills after difficult UFC assignments.
Track record: winner called in 13 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (13 hit, 10 miss, across 23 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (7 hit, 0 miss, across 7 method-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 83.3% (5 hit, 1 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 23 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 13 10
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 7
- Round Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Litterine selects Eric Nolan in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Fight Productions selects Eric Nolan by ko/tko in round 2.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Clenbat selects Eric Nolan in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 49 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.1% (27 hit, 22 miss, across 49 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 49 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.1% 27 22
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Schweppe picks Eric Nolan to win by second-round knockout.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
The MMA Yuda selects Eric Nolan.
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Greedo Plays MMA selects Eric Nolan in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Walk The Line MMA selects Eric Nolan.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (27 hit, 27 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.9% (11 hit, 8 miss, across 19 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 27 27
- Method Accuracy 57.9% 11 8
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Changes his initial decision lean to a second-round knockout in the discussion, then confirms it in the final recap.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 50.0% (6 hit, 6 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 16.7% (1 hit, 5 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 4 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
- Method Accuracy 16.7% 1 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 4
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Picks Nolan by knockout for his size, power and speed advantage and more damaging strikes. He expects Nolan to stop early takedowns, while acknowledging that McGee could make the fight scrappy and force a decision.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 85.7% (12 hit, 2 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 41 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 41 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Method Accuracy 85.7% 12 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Eric Nolan
Fight result: Eric Nolan · KO/TKO
Bruhn selects Eric Nolan in a winner-only call.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.6% (10 hit, 11 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.6% 10 11
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Analyst picks: Hank Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; FightIQ Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Tom Feely Miss; Michael Chiesa Miss; Matt Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; Fite Feed Hit; Mate Bersenadze Hit; Livid Larry MMA Hit; HopperMMA Hit; James Lynch Hit; MMA Mathletes Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Hit; Kunath Miss; The Octagon Oracle Hit; Angelo Bodetti Hit; Artem MMA Hit; BeewolfMMA Hit; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Productions Hit; Clenbat Hit; Daniel Vreeland Miss; The Finz Chats Miss; Chris Schweppe Hit; D.Rose Miss; The MMA Yuda Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Walk The Line MMA Hit; Vinny Hit; mmadbm Hit; Guy Bruhn Hit; Chris Cross Miss; Kyle Marley Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss.
29 of 38 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Nolan · KO/TKO · R3
Closest probability Gemini put 64% on Nolan.
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick McGee
Most likely: McGee by decision, about 33 in 100
Win chance: McGee 55%, Nolan 45%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick McGee
Most likely: McGee by decision, about 30 in 100
Win chance: McGee 58%, Nolan 42%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Nolan
Most likely: Nolan by decision, about 35 in 100
Win chance: McGee 36%, Nolan 64%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
2 of 3 models pick McGee; 1 of 3 models pick Nolan.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
McGee: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Nolan: 45%.
Claude
McGee: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Nolan: 42%.
Gemini
Nolan: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). McGee: 36%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
McGee by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
Claude
McGee by decision: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Gemini
Nolan by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. McGee by decision (33%); 2. Nolan by decision (22%); 3. Nolan by KO/TKO (20%)
Claude
1. McGee by decision (30%); 2. McGee by submission (18%); 2. Nolan by KO/TKO (18%)
Gemini
1. Nolan by decision (35%); 2. Nolan by KO/TKO (24%); 3. McGee by decision (23%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on McGee's 55% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on McGee's 58% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Nolan's 64% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 55%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 46%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 42%. Decision: 58%.
How does McGee win?
ChatGPT
McGee wins 55%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 17%, decision 33%.
Claude
McGee wins 58%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 18%, decision 30%.
Gemini
McGee wins 36%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%, decision 23%.
How does Nolan win?
ChatGPT
Nolan wins 45%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 3%, decision 22%.
Claude
Nolan wins 42%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 16%.
Gemini
Nolan wins 64%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%, decision 35%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Nolan's most likely upset: Nolan by decision (22%).
Gemini
McGee's most likely upset: McGee by decision (23%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: McGee, Claude: McGee, Gemini: Nolan).
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McGee by decision (33%).
Claude
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McGee by decision (30%).
Gemini
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nolan by decision (35%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 25%, submission 20%, decision 55%.
Claude
KO/TKO 28%, submission 26%, decision 46%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%, decision 58%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Nolan: 23%, against 22% for McGee.
Claude
McGee: 28%, against 26% for Nolan.
Gemini
Nolan: 29%, against 13% for McGee.
Can McGee get the finish? Can Nolan?
ChatGPT
McGee: 22% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 17%). Nolan: 23% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 3%).
Claude
McGee: 28% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 18%). Nolan: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%).
Gemini
McGee: 13% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%). Nolan: 29% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
McGee is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 3%. Nolan is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 17%.
Claude
McGee is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%. Nolan is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 18%.
Gemini
McGee is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 5%. Nolan is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 9%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 64% vs 36%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
McGee by decision: 33%. Nolan by decision: 22%.
Gemini
McGee by decision: 23%. Nolan by decision: 35%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Nolan wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Nolan wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
McGee wins 36% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
55%.
Claude
46%.
Gemini
58%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: McGee 60%, Nolan 40%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: McGee 65%, Nolan 35%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: McGee 40%, Nolan 60%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: McGee by decision, 33% here against 27% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Nolan by decision, 16% here against 29% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Nolan by decision, 35% here against 19% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks McGee (55%).
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks McGee (58%).
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks Nolan (64%).
Which model is most confident on McGee, and which on Nolan?
All models
On McGee: Claude (58%). On Nolan: Gemini (64%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Nolan by decision: from 16% (Claude) to 35% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Kyle Marley (McGee by decision), The Finz Chats (McGee by decision) and D.Rose (McGee by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours McGee, most likely by decision.
Claude
Kyle Marley (McGee by decision), The Finz Chats (McGee by decision) and D.Rose (McGee by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours McGee, most likely by decision.
Gemini
James Lynch (Nolan by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Nolan by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Nolan by decision) and FightIQ (Nolan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Nolan, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
McGee
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: McGee by decision, about 33 in 100
Win chance: McGee 55%, Nolan 45%.
Most likely outcomes
- McGee by decision33%
- Nolan by decision22%
- Nolan by KO/TKO20%
- KO/TKO: McGee 5%, Nolan 20%.
- Submission: McGee 17%, Nolan 3%.
- Decision: McGee 33%, Nolan 22%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
McGee: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Nolan: 45%.
Other models' answers
Claude
McGee: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Nolan: 42%.
Gemini
Nolan: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). McGee: 36%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
McGee by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
McGee by decision: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Gemini
Nolan by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. McGee by decision (33%); 2. Nolan by decision (22%); 3. Nolan by KO/TKO (20%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. McGee by decision (30%); 2. McGee by submission (18%); 2. Nolan by KO/TKO (18%)
Gemini
1. Nolan by decision (35%); 2. Nolan by KO/TKO (24%); 3. McGee by decision (23%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on McGee's 55% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
6 of 10, based on McGee's 58% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Nolan's 64% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 55%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 46%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 42%. Decision: 58%.
How does McGee win?
ChatGPT
McGee wins 55%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 17%, decision 33%.
Other models' answers
Claude
McGee wins 58%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 18%, decision 30%.
Gemini
McGee wins 36%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%, decision 23%.
How does Nolan win?
ChatGPT
Nolan wins 45%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 3%, decision 22%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Nolan wins 42%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 16%.
Gemini
Nolan wins 64%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%, decision 35%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Nolan's most likely upset: Nolan by decision (22%).
Other models' answers
Gemini
McGee's most likely upset: McGee by decision (23%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: McGee, Claude: McGee, Gemini: Nolan).
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McGee by decision (33%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McGee by decision (30%).
Gemini
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nolan by decision (35%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 25%, submission 20%, decision 55%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 28%, submission 26%, decision 46%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%, decision 58%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Nolan: 23%, against 22% for McGee.
Other models' answers
Claude
McGee: 28%, against 26% for Nolan.
Gemini
Nolan: 29%, against 13% for McGee.
Can McGee get the finish? Can Nolan?
ChatGPT
McGee: 22% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 17%). Nolan: 23% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 3%).
Other models' answers
Claude
McGee: 28% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 18%). Nolan: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%).
Gemini
McGee: 13% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%). Nolan: 29% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
McGee is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 3%. Nolan is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 17%.
Other models' answers
Claude
McGee is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%. Nolan is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 18%.
Gemini
McGee is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 5%. Nolan is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 9%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Other models' answers
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 64% vs 36%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
McGee by decision: 33%. Nolan by decision: 22%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
McGee by decision: 23%. Nolan by decision: 35%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Nolan wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Nolan wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
McGee wins 36% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
55%.
Other models' answers
Claude
46%.
Gemini
58%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: McGee 60%, Nolan 40%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: McGee 65%, Nolan 35%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: McGee 40%, Nolan 60%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: McGee by decision, 33% here against 27% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: Nolan by decision, 16% here against 29% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Nolan by decision, 35% here against 19% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks McGee (55%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks McGee (58%).
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks Nolan (64%).
Which model is most confident on McGee, and which on Nolan?
ChatGPT
On McGee: Claude (58%). On Nolan: Gemini (64%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Nolan by decision: from 16% (Claude) to 35% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Kyle Marley (McGee by decision), The Finz Chats (McGee by decision) and D.Rose (McGee by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours McGee, most likely by decision.
Other models' answers
Gemini
James Lynch (Nolan by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Nolan by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Nolan by decision) and FightIQ (Nolan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Nolan, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 27 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
McGee
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: McGee by decision, about 30 in 100
Win chance: McGee 58%, Nolan 42%.
Most likely outcomes
- McGee by decision30%
- McGee by submission, tied for number 218%
- Nolan by KO/TKO, tied for number 218%
- KO/TKO: McGee 10%, Nolan 18%.
- Submission: McGee 18%, Nolan 8%.
- Decision: McGee 30%, Nolan 16%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
McGee: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Nolan: 42%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Nolan: 45%.
Gemini
Nolan: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). McGee: 36%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
McGee by decision: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
Gemini
Nolan by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. McGee by decision (30%); 2. McGee by submission (18%); 2. Nolan by KO/TKO (18%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. McGee by decision (33%); 2. Nolan by decision (22%); 3. Nolan by KO/TKO (20%)
Gemini
1. Nolan by decision (35%); 2. Nolan by KO/TKO (24%); 3. McGee by decision (23%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
6 of 10, based on McGee's 58% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on McGee's 55% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Nolan's 64% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 46%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 55%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 42%. Decision: 58%.
How does McGee win?
Claude
McGee wins 58%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 18%, decision 30%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee wins 55%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 17%, decision 33%.
Gemini
McGee wins 36%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%, decision 23%.
How does Nolan win?
Claude
Nolan wins 42%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 16%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nolan wins 45%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 3%, decision 22%.
Gemini
Nolan wins 64%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%, decision 35%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: McGee, Claude: McGee, Gemini: Nolan).
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McGee by decision (30%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McGee by decision (33%).
Gemini
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nolan by decision (35%).
More questions (18)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 28%, submission 26%, decision 46%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 25%, submission 20%, decision 55%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%, decision 58%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
McGee: 28%, against 26% for Nolan.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nolan: 23%, against 22% for McGee.
Gemini
Nolan: 29%, against 13% for McGee.
Can McGee get the finish? Can Nolan?
Claude
McGee: 28% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 18%). Nolan: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee: 22% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 17%). Nolan: 23% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 3%).
Gemini
McGee: 13% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%). Nolan: 29% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
McGee is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%. Nolan is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 18%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 3%. Nolan is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 17%.
Gemini
McGee is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 5%. Nolan is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 9%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 64% vs 36%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Nolan wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nolan wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
McGee wins 36% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
46%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
55%.
Gemini
58%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: McGee 65%, Nolan 35%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: McGee 60%, Nolan 40%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: McGee 40%, Nolan 60%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Nolan by decision, 16% here against 29% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: McGee by decision, 33% here against 27% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Nolan by decision, 35% here against 19% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks McGee (58%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks McGee (55%).
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks Nolan (64%).
Which model is most confident on McGee, and which on Nolan?
Claude
On McGee: Claude (58%). On Nolan: Gemini (64%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Nolan by decision: from 16% (Claude) to 35% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Claude
Kyle Marley (McGee by decision), The Finz Chats (McGee by decision) and D.Rose (McGee by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours McGee, most likely by decision.
Other models' answers
Gemini
James Lynch (Nolan by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Nolan by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Nolan by decision) and FightIQ (Nolan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Nolan, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 27 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Nolan
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Nolan by decision, about 35 in 100
Win chance: McGee 36%, Nolan 64%.
Most likely outcomes
- Nolan by decision35%
- Nolan by KO/TKO24%
- McGee by decision23%
- KO/TKO: McGee 4%, Nolan 24%.
- Submission: McGee 9%, Nolan 5%.
- Decision: McGee 23%, Nolan 35%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Nolan: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). McGee: 36%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Nolan: 45%.
Claude
McGee: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Nolan: 42%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Nolan by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee by decision: 33% (about 33 in 100).
Claude
McGee by decision: 30% (about 30 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Nolan by decision (35%); 2. Nolan by KO/TKO (24%); 3. McGee by decision (23%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. McGee by decision (33%); 2. Nolan by decision (22%); 3. Nolan by KO/TKO (20%)
Claude
1. McGee by decision (30%); 2. McGee by submission (18%); 2. Nolan by KO/TKO (18%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Nolan's 64% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on McGee's 55% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on McGee's 58% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 42%. Decision: 58%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 45%. Decision: 55%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 54%. Decision: 46%.
How does McGee win?
Gemini
McGee wins 36%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%, decision 23%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee wins 55%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 17%, decision 33%.
Claude
McGee wins 58%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 18%, decision 30%.
How does Nolan win?
Gemini
Nolan wins 64%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%, decision 35%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nolan wins 45%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 3%, decision 22%.
Claude
Nolan wins 42%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 16%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
McGee's most likely upset: McGee by decision (23%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nolan's most likely upset: Nolan by decision (22%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: McGee, Claude: McGee, Gemini: Nolan).
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Nolan by decision (35%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McGee by decision (33%).
Claude
Result: Nolan by KO/TKO in round 3. Nolan by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was McGee by decision (30%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%, decision 58%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 25%, submission 20%, decision 55%.
Claude
KO/TKO 28%, submission 26%, decision 46%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Nolan: 29%, against 13% for McGee.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nolan: 23%, against 22% for McGee.
Claude
McGee: 28%, against 26% for Nolan.
Can McGee get the finish? Can Nolan?
Gemini
McGee: 13% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 9%). Nolan: 29% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 5%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee: 22% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 17%). Nolan: 23% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 3%).
Claude
McGee: 28% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 18%). Nolan: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
McGee is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 5%. Nolan is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 9%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 3%. Nolan is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 17%.
Claude
McGee is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%. Nolan is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 18%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 64% vs 36%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
McGee by decision: 23%. Nolan by decision: 35%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
McGee by decision: 33%. Nolan by decision: 22%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
McGee wins 36% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Nolan wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Nolan wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
58%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
55%.
Claude
46%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: McGee 40%, Nolan 60%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: McGee 60%, Nolan 40%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: McGee 65%, Nolan 35%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Nolan by decision, 35% here against 19% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: McGee by decision, 33% here against 27% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Nolan by decision, 16% here against 29% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks Nolan (64%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks McGee (55%).
Claude
Of 38 analyst picks, 9 back McGee and 29 back Nolan. This model picks McGee (58%).
Which model is most confident on McGee, and which on Nolan?
Gemini
On McGee: Claude (58%). On Nolan: Gemini (64%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Nolan by decision: from 16% (Claude) to 35% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
James Lynch (Nolan by decision), Angelo Bodetti (Nolan by decision), Mate Bersenadze (Nolan by decision) and FightIQ (Nolan by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Nolan, most likely by decision.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Kyle Marley (McGee by decision), The Finz Chats (McGee by decision) and D.Rose (McGee by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours McGee, most likely by decision.
Claude
Kyle Marley (McGee by decision), The Finz Chats (McGee by decision) and D.Rose (McGee by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours McGee, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 29 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 27 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 27 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 29 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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