UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Islam Makhachev defeats Arman Tsarukyan by Decision (unanimous)
Round 3 · 5:00
Makhachev vs Tsarukyan · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Tsarukyan initiated the clinch and first takedown, then worked free after Makhachev answered with a foot sweep and mount.
Tsarukyan remained patient after working free and continued to go shot-for-shot with Makhachev in the opening exchanges.
Makhachev pulled away in the final round by pushing a relentless pace and swarming Tsarukyan to secure the decision.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Saint Petersburg results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Makhachev
Makhachev brings superior submission depth and a more seasoned UFC track record — five wins from six fights, including finishes over Tibau and Kajan Johnson. His ability to control position and threaten submissions from every angle should neutralise Tsarukyan's athleticism over three rounds.
Case for Tsarukyan
Tsarukyan arrives on a 14-fight unbeaten run with elite wrestling credentials for the weight class. A UFC debut removes any crowd-psychology disadvantage, and a partisan Russian crowd in Saint Petersburg could energise both men. His aggressiveness and output could disrupt Makhachev's patient, methodical game.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Tsarukyan can survive Makhachev's submission attempts — he is one of the few debut prospects with realistic physical tools to muscle out of them.
- Who wins the wrestling scrambles: both fighters have elite takedown credentials and neither gives the mat up easily.
- Whether Tsarukyan's gas tank holds in the championship rounds — Makhachev's pace tends to punish opponents late when they tire.
Records & career stats
- 16-1-0
- Record
- 13-1-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- Russia
- Nationality
- Armenia
- 34
- Age
- 29
- Southpaw
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 67%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- Source pending
- 5
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- —
- 11:45
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 11:42
- AKA (American Kickboxing Academy) San Jose
- Team
- Syndicate MMA - Las Vegas, NV
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Islam Makhachev
Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)
TheWeasle transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Islam Makhachev
Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)
MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Islam Makhachev
Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)
The MMA Guru transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Islam Makhachev
Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Analyst picks: TheWeasle Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit.
4 of 4 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
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