Strickland def. Chimaev
Dec
Chimaev vs Strickland — Middleweight Title Fight · UFC 328
What happened
Sean Strickland reclaimed the middleweight title by surviving Khamzat Chimaev's early wrestling pressure and dragging the bout into the close, jab-heavy, attritional main event he handles best. Over five rounds his takedown defense held up often enough to keep it standing, and he edged a split decision — the first professional loss of Chimaev's career.
- Chimaev created the usual early takedown questions, but Strickland stayed upright and kept the pace from snowballing.
- Strickland's jab and durability carried the back half to end Chimaev's title reign in its first defense window.
Watch
More from this fight.
More videos · 6 clips
Signature moments
Signature moments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Caller scorecard: The MMA Guru missed; We Want Picks missed; TheWeasle missed; Bedtime MMA missed; HopperoMMA missed; Lucas Tracy missed; Michael Bisping missed; Demetrious Johnson missed; Kyle Anthony missed; DFS By The Numbers missed; MMAPREDICTIONGURU called it.
Only 1 of 11 called the upset.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
MMAPREDICTIONGURU AnalystBetting desk called 5 of 7 MMAPREDICTIONGURU: predicted Strickland · KO/TKO · R4. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Hit.
Makes Strickland the value upset pick, arguing he has a clear striking edge, can punish Chimaev if the fight gets extended, and could finish late if Chimaev gets desperate.
Track record: winner called in 5 of 7 resolved picks, 3 a perfect call.
The MMA Guru Analyst called 25 of 36 The MMA Guru: predicted Chimaev · to win. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
Backs Chimaev despite openly wanting Strickland to win — doesn't trust Strickland's takedown defence to keep him off the mat.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 36 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
We Want Picks Betting desk called 22 of 37 We Want Picks: predicted Chimaev · to win. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
Chimaev's wrestling is just too dominant; sees Strickland losing on control time.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 37 resolved picks.
TheWeasle Analyst called 25 of 37 TheWeasle: predicted Chimaev · to win. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
Goes with the heavy favourite — Strickland's upright stance invites the takedowns Chimaev lives on.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 37 resolved picks, 9 a perfect call.
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: predicted Chimaev · Sub · R3. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
Chimaev's grappling is too much for Strickland to stop — a round-three submission, in the mould of Khabib–McGregor.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
HopperoMMA Analyst called 20 of 33 HopperoMMA: predicted Chimaev · Sub · R1. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
Chimaev shoots immediately, gets it to the floor and submits Strickland in the first.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Lucas Tracy Analyst called 20 of 31 Lucas Tracy: predicted Chimaev · Decision. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
Chimaev's wrestling controls all five rounds for a 50-45 decision, à la the Du Plessis fight.
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Michael Bisping AnalystFighter called 11 of 19 Michael Bisping: predicted Chimaev · to win. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
Bisping has leaned Chimaev all week and, despite growing respect for Strickland's elite cardio, strength and ability to get back up, his gut still says Chimaev gets it done. He concedes he could be wrong and that the longer it goes the more it favours Strickland.
- A gut pick — admits he could be wrong
- Chimaev's one-shot power vs Strickland's five-round cardio
- Strickland's big weight cut flagged as a late-fight factor
“I think Khamzat Chimaev gets the job done.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 19 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call.
Demetrious Johnson AnalystFighter called 9 of 15 Demetrious Johnson: predicted Chimaev · to win. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
DJ predicts a dominant Chimaev finish: Chimaev takes everybody down, and while Strickland has never been manhandled or out-grappled, DJ believes Chimaev can be the one to do it — via the submission game from dominant position rather than ground-and-pound.
- Predicts a dominant finish (method left unspecified)
- Chimaev out-grapples and takes everyone down
- Must manage his gas tank or fade late
“I am going to predict a finish for Khamzat Chimaev, and he's going to be dominant.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 15 resolved picks.
Kyle Anthony Betting desk track record building — 3 resolved Kyle Anthony: predicted Chimaev · Sub. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss. Note: A betting handicap on WagerTalk's UFC 328 show.
Kyle Anthony sees Chimaev's elite, top-notch wrestling, explosiveness and physicality as too much: Strickland gets stuck on the back foot defending takedowns instead of working his jab and volume, then takes risks getting up and gives up his back, where Chimaev finds the finish.
- Off the -590 moneyline, likes Chimaev by submission at +110
- Strickland has no power to scare Chimaev — death by accumulation
- Lost both Du Plessis fights where wrestling was a factor
“Getting off the minus-590 number, I do like Chimaev by submission, which is sitting at plus 110.”
* A betting handicap on WagerTalk's UFC 328 show.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Chimaev · Sub · R1. Actual Strickland · Dec. Result: Miss.
He expects Chimaev to wrestle immediately, force Strickland into defensive scrambles, and find the back before the fight can settle into a long striking match.
“So I'm going Hamzat Chimaev. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission.”
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
Archive
Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.
Tale of the Tape
Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
- 4.01 5.98
- 52% 61%
- 2.98 4.53
- 88% 69%
- 80% 52%
- 15-0-0
- Record
- 31-7-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 9:52
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 16:16
- Russia
- Nationality
- United States
- TKMMA Fit, Akhmat MMA
- Team
- Millennia MMA · Rancho Cucamonga, California
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Chimaev
Chimaev's championship route was the same one that carried him through the division: immediate level changes, mauling top pressure and enough front-foot offense to force Strickland into reactive defense. If he could win the first wrestling exchanges cleanly, the fight would tilt toward his pace and physicality.
Case for Strickland
Strickland's answer was attrition. He needed to stay upright often enough to drag Chimaev into long striking stretches, touch him with the jab for five rounds and force the champion to keep shooting without getting easy control time in return.
What We Were Watching For
- How much early control does Chimaev get from his first takedown sequences?
- Can Strickland's jab and stance discipline make the fight feel long instead of frantic?
- Which man is dictating the fence minutes: Chimaev with mat returns or Strickland with stubborn escapes?
Fighters
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