UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Sean Strickland defeats Khamzat Chimaev by split decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Chimaev vs Strickland — Middleweight Title Fight · UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Chimaev controlled the opening frame with wrestling, but Strickland defended the next two takedown attempts and took top position in the second.
The third and fourth rounds were contested on the feet, with Chimaev landing heavier individual shots and Strickland answering with greater output.
Strickland edged the split decision, handing Chimaev the first professional loss of his career.
- Official UFC resultsUFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Chimaev
Chimaev's championship route was the same one that carried him through the division: immediate level changes, mauling top pressure and enough front-foot offense to force Strickland into reactive defense. If he could win the first wrestling exchanges cleanly, the fight would tilt toward his pace and physicality.
Case for Strickland
Strickland's answer was attrition. He needed to stay upright often enough to drag Chimaev into long striking stretches, touch him with the jab for five rounds and force the champion to keep shooting without getting easy control time in return.
What We Were Watching For
- How much early control does Chimaev get from his first takedown sequences?
- Can Strickland's jab and stance discipline make the fight feel long instead of frantic?
- Which man is dictating the fence minutes: Chimaev with mat returns or Strickland with stubborn escapes?
Records & career stats
- 4.01 5.98
- 52% 61%
- 2.98 4.53
- 88% 69%
- 80% 52%
- 15-0-0
- Record
- 30-7-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- Russia
- Nationality
- United States
- 32
- Age
- 35
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 09:52
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 16:16
- TKMMA Fit, Akhmat MMA
- Team
- Millennia MMA, Rancho, CA
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Sub · Round 3
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Chimaev's grappling is too much for Strickland to stop — a round-three submission, in the mould of Khabib–McGregor.
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Goes with the heavy favourite — Strickland's upright stance invites the takedowns Chimaev lives on.
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Dec
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Chimaev's wrestling controls all five rounds for a 50-45 decision, à la the Du Plessis fight.
Track record: winner called in 44 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.7% (44 hit, 21 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 38.9% (7 hit, 11 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 44 21
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Backs Chimaev despite openly wanting Strickland to win — doesn't trust Strickland's takedown defence to keep him off the mat.
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
CBS Sports' expert-picks table lists Brent Brookhouse on the selected winner by submission in round 1.
Track record: winner called in 28 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.1% (28 hit, 15 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 22.2% (2 hit, 7 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.1% 28 15
- Method Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
- Round Accuracy 22.2% 2 7
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
He expects Chimaev to wrestle immediately, force Strickland into defensive scrambles, and find the back before the fight can settle into a long striking match.
“So I'm going Hamzat Chimaev. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Chimaev's wrestling is just too dominant; sees Strickland losing on control time.
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Transcript-verified winner pick from 138 MMA UFC 328 full-card prediction.
“I have to go with Khamzat Chimaev, unfortunately.”
Track record: winner called in 42 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.6% (42 hit, 24 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 43.8% (7 hit, 9 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 42 24
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 43.8% 7 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
RotoWire's UFC 328 expert-picks table lists Drake Burden on Khamzat Chimaev.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Dec
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Michael Iannone's FantasyAlarm UFC 328 preview picks Khamzat Chimaev by decision.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (15 hit, 9 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 15 9
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Chimaev shoots immediately, gets it to the floor and submits Strickland in the first.
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Bisping has leaned Chimaev all week and, despite growing respect for Strickland's elite cardio, strength and ability to get back up, his gut still says Chimaev gets it done. He concedes he could be wrong and that the longer it goes the more it favours Strickland.
- A gut pick — admits he could be wrong
- Chimaev's one-shot power vs Strickland's five-round cardio
- Strickland's big weight cut flagged as a late-fight factor
“I think Khamzat Chimaev gets the job done.”
Track record: winner called in 24 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.5% (24 hit, 15 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 24 15
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
RotoWire's UFC 328 expert-picks table lists Jake Letarski on Khamzat Chimaev.
Track record: winner called in 42 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.9% (42 hit, 27 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.9% 42 27
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Artem MMA picks Khamzat Chimaev to win.
“I’m going to pick Chimaev to win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Dec
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
CBS Sports' expert-picks table lists Michael Mormile on the selected winner by decision.
Track record: winner called in 22 of 38 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (22 hit, 16 miss, across 38 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 38 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 38 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 38 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 22 16
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
RotoWire's UFC 328 expert-picks table lists Jon Litterine on Khamzat Chimaev.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Dec
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
CBS Sports' expert-picks table lists Brian Campbell on the selected winner by decision.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.8% (24 hit, 19 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.0% (13 hit, 7 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 7.1% (1 hit, 13 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.8% 24 19
- Method Accuracy 65.0% 13 7
- Round Accuracy 7.1% 1 13
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 3 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
DJ predicts a dominant Chimaev finish: Chimaev takes everybody down, and while Strickland has never been manhandled or out-grappled, DJ believes Chimaev can be the one to do it — via the submission game from dominant position rather than ground-and-pound.
- Predicts a dominant finish (method left unspecified)
- Chimaev out-grapples and takes everyone down
- Must manage his gas tank or fade late
“I am going to predict a finish for Khamzat Chimaev, and he's going to be dominant.”
Track record: winner called in 6 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.5% (6 hit, 5 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 11 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Dec
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
CBS Sports' expert-picks table lists Shakiel Mahjouri on the selected winner by decision.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 46 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.3% (25 hit, 21 miss, across 46 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (10 hit, 10 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 9 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 46 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.3% 25 21
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 10 10
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 9
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
RotoWire's UFC 328 expert-picks table lists Cole Shelton on Khamzat Chimaev.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
RotoWire's UFC 328 expert-picks table lists Joe SunTszu on Khamzat Chimaev.
Track record: winner called in 34 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.1% (34 hit, 30 miss, across 64 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (4 hit, 12 miss, across 16 underdog calls on 64 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.1% 34 30
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 4 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Dec
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
MMA Mania's Jesse Holland pre-event prediction selects the listed winner by decision.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 49.1% (27 hit, 28 miss, across 55 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 method-scored calls on 55 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 27.8% (5 hit, 13 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 55 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
CBS Sports' expert-picks table lists Brandon Wise on the selected winner by submission in round 2.
Track record: winner called in 21 of 43 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 48.8% (21 hit, 22 miss, across 43 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 43 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 8.3% (1 hit, 11 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 43 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 21 22
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 6 9
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 8.3% 1 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Khamzat Chimaev · Sub
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Kyle Anthony sees Chimaev's elite, top-notch wrestling, explosiveness and physicality as too much: Strickland gets stuck on the back foot defending takedowns instead of working his jab and volume, then takes risks getting up and gives up his back, where Chimaev finds the finish.
- Off the -590 moneyline, likes Chimaev by submission at +110
- Strickland has no power to scare Chimaev — death by accumulation
- Lost both Du Plessis fights where wrestling was a factor
“Getting off the minus-590 number, I do like Chimaev by submission, which is sitting at plus 110.”
* A betting handicap on WagerTalk's UFC 328 show.
Track record: winner called in 2 of 7 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 7 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 7 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Sean Strickland · KO/TKO · Round 4
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
Makes Strickland the value upset pick, arguing he has a clear striking edge, can punish Chimaev if the fight gets extended, and could finish late if Chimaev gets desperate.
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 59.4% (41 hit, 28 miss, across 69 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 57.7% (15 hit, 11 miss, across 26 method-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 12.5% (1 hit, 7 miss, across 8 round-scored calls on 69 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 69 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Sean Strickland
Fight result: Sean Strickland · Decision
RotoWire's UFC 328 expert-picks table lists Chris Olson on Sean Strickland.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 45.1% (32 hit, 39 miss, across 71 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 71 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 45.1% 32 39
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; TheWeasle Miss; Lucas Tracy Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; Brent Brookhouse Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; 138 MMA Miss; Drake Burden Miss; Michael Iannone Miss; HopperMMA Miss; Michael Bisping Miss; Jake Letarski Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Artem MMA Miss; Michael Mormile Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Brian Campbell Miss; Demetrious Johnson Miss; Shakiel Mahjouri Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; Joe SunTszu Miss; Jesse Holland Miss; Brandon Wise Miss; Chris Olson Hit; Kyle Anthony Miss.
Only 2 of 26 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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