UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Christian Leroy Duncan defeats Jared Cannonier by unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Cannonier vs Duncan — Middleweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Duncan controlled the range early, beating Cannonier to the punch with faster, more varied striking.
Wrestling entries kept Cannonier from planting his feet and loading up the power he is known for.
Cannonier stayed dangerous into the third but never found the single exchange that would flip the fight.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Oklahoma City results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Cannonier
Cannonier is the harder, more proven hitter, and one-shot power ages more slowly than footwork — 11 of his wins are knockouts. If he can plant Duncan on the fence and turn this into a phone-booth fight, his championship-round miles against Vettori, Strickland and Brunson are a level Duncan hasn't touched.
Case for Duncan
Duncan wins if the fight stays long and at range. He is 12 years younger, riding a 4-1 run built on length, stance switches and spinning offense, and a 42-year-old Cannonier has been stopped by Imavov and out-moved by Michael Page in exactly the kind of track meet Duncan wants.
What We Were Watching For
- Cannonier's power window: at 42 his best chance is early and heavy — does he load up before the pace turns against him?
- Range vs pressure: Duncan's switch-stance, spinning offense against Cannonier trying to close distance and rip the body.
- Duncan's chin under real power: Cannonier hits harder than anyone Duncan has stopped — can CLD eat a clean one and stay composed?
- Miles on the tires: Cannonier is 2-3 in his last five with two knockout losses — is the durability there for a full 15?
Records & career stats
- 4.25 4.45
- 56% 54%
- 4.36 2.36
- 65% 58%
- 72% 73%
- 18-9-0
- Record
- 14-2-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- United Kingdom
- 42
- Age
- 30
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 13:57
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 10:33
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jared Cannonier · Dec
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City preview has Jesse Holland picking Jared Cannonier by unanimous decision.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 49.1% (27 hit, 28 miss, across 55 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 method-scored calls on 55 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 27.8% (5 hit, 13 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 55 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Jared Cannonier
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Jared Cannonier.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · Dec
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Christian Leroy Duncan as its pick over Jared Cannonier.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
Picks Duncan by knockout, expecting his speed and elbows to create the explosive finish against Cannonier.
“stopped. So, we'll go Leroy Duncan by knockout as the pick in the co-main”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
Takes Duncan's youth, activity and more varied striking to land more than Cannonier.
“way. Um, but I am going to go Christian Lee Roy Duncan here. I”
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
Takes Duncan's speed, movement and improving game against an aging Cannonier.
“just don't know that Jared is still that guy uh in this fight. If he was, I'd”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
Takes Duncan on durability and finishing upside against the accumulated damage on Cannonier.
“Larry Duncan to win. I'll take him to win by second round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
Picks Duncan to stop Cannonier in the second round.
“Do I pick him by finish? Yeah, I I would say second round TKO for uh for Christian.”
Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.6% (17 hit, 12 miss, across 29 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.5% (6 hit, 5 miss, across 11 method-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 29 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 29 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
- Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
Calls Duncan by knockout, rating the younger fighter's finishing tools and momentum above Cannonier's current form.
“Duncan's gonna look the most dominant on this entire card. Christian Leroy Duncan”
Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.4% 31 23
- Method Accuracy 68.2% 15 7
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · Dec
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
MMA Mania's UFC Oklahoma City X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Christian Leroy Duncan by decision.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO
Fight result: Christian Leroy Duncan · Decision
Takes Duncan to knock Cannonier out, contrasting Duncan's durability with Cannonier's age and recent decline.
“Holloway. I'm going to go CLD to come out here and”
Track record: winner called in 58 of 109 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.2% (58 hit, 51 miss, across 109 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 66.7% (2 hit, 1 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 109 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 21.4% (6 hit, 22 miss, across 28 underdog calls on 109 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.2% 58 51
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog Accuracy 21.4% 6 22
Analyst picks: FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Marcel Dorff Hit; Mike Finch Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Half The Battle Hit; Jesse Holland Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss.
9 of 11 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 7 sportsbooks
Favoured: Duncan (75%) Called it
Duncan defeats Cannonier · Dec
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