Duncan def. Cannonier
Dec · unanimous · 5:00
Cannonier vs Duncan — Middleweight · UFC Fight Night
What happened
Duncan passed the biggest test of his career by simply being the sharper man for longer. He was the quicker, more effective striker through the first two rounds and mixed in wrestling to keep Cannonier from setting his feet. The veteran refused to wilt and had his moments late, but Duncan's volume and variety carried two cards clean for a 30-27, 30-27, 29-28 unanimous decision.
- Duncan controlled the range early, beating Cannonier to the punch with faster, more varied striking.
- Wrestling entries kept Cannonier from planting his feet and loading up the power he is known for.
- Cannonier stayed dangerous into the third but never found the single exchange that would flip the fight.
- 30-27
- 30-27
- 29-28
Play-by-play source: UFC.com · UFC Oklahoma City results
Watch
More from this fight.
More videos · 10 clips
Signature moments
Signature moments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Caller scorecard: Adam Martin called it; Marcel Dorff called it; Ben Duffy perfect call; Keith Shillan perfect call; AJ called it; Mike Finch called it; Half The Battle called it; DFS By The Numbers called it; JakeGerberMMA called it; James Lynch called it.
10 of 10 nailed it · 2 nailed the finish ★.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Adam Martin AnalystBetting desk called 8 of 9 Adam Martin: predicted Duncan · KO/TKO. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Hit.
Backs Duncan's youth and athleticism to overwhelm Cannonier and produce a knockout.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 9 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
Marcel Dorff Analyst called 7 of 9 Marcel Dorff: predicted Duncan · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Hit.
Picks Duncan to stop Cannonier in the second round.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 9 resolved picks, 5 a perfect call.
Ben Duffy Analyst called 9 of 10 Ben Duffy: predicted Duncan · Decision. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Sees Duncan's youth, size and durability making him a bad stylistic matchup for Cannonier over three rounds.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 10 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
Keith Shillan Analyst called 8 of 10 Keith Shillan: predicted Duncan · Decision. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Perfect call.
Expects Duncan's speed to pick Cannonier apart while Cannonier remains tough enough to reach a decision.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks, 6 a perfect call.
AJ Betting deskAnalyst called 24 of 30 AJ: predicted Duncan · KO/TKO. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Hit.
Picks Duncan by knockout, expecting his speed and elbows to create the explosive finish against Cannonier.
Track record: winner called in 24 of 30 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call.
Mike Finch Betting deskAnalyst called 19 of 31 Mike Finch: predicted Duncan · KO/TKO. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Hit.
Calls Duncan by knockout, rating the younger fighter's finishing tools and momentum above Cannonier's current form.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 31 resolved picks, 8 a perfect call.
Half The Battle Analyst called 12 of 19 Half The Battle: predicted Duncan · KO/TKO. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Duncan to knock Cannonier out, contrasting Duncan's durability with Cannonier's age and recent decline.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 19 resolved picks, 2 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Duncan · to win. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Duncan on durability and finishing upside against the accumulated damage on Cannonier.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 8 of 10 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Duncan · to win. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Duncan's speed, movement and improving game against an aging Cannonier.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 10 resolved picks.
James Lynch Analyst called 9 of 10 James Lynch: predicted Duncan · to win. Actual Duncan · Dec. Result: Hit.
Takes Duncan to win a decision, pointing to the age gap and Duncan's physical advantages.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 10 resolved picks.
Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 7 sportsbooks
Favoured: Duncan (75%) Called it
Duncan def. Cannonier · Dec
Archive
Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.
Tale of the Tape
Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
- 18-9-0
- Record
- 14-2-0
- 2-3 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
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- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- United States
- Nationality
- United Kingdom
- ABJJ + Gracie Barra Alaska
- Team
- Range Martial Arts Academy
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Cannonier
Cannonier is the harder, more proven hitter, and one-shot power ages more slowly than footwork — 11 of his wins are knockouts. If he can plant Duncan on the fence and turn this into a phone-booth fight, his championship-round miles against Vettori, Strickland and Brunson are a level Duncan hasn't touched.
Case for Duncan
Duncan wins if the fight stays long and at range. He is 12 years younger, riding a 4-1 run built on length, stance switches and spinning offense, and a 42-year-old Cannonier has been stopped by Imavov and out-moved by Michael Page in exactly the kind of track meet Duncan wants.
What We Were Watching For
- Cannonier's power window: at 42 his best chance is early and heavy — does he load up before the pace turns against him?
- Range vs pressure: Duncan's switch-stance, spinning offense against Cannonier trying to close distance and rip the body.
- Duncan's chin under real power: Cannonier hits harder than anyone Duncan has stopped — can CLD eat a clean one and stay composed?
- Miles on the tires: Cannonier is 2-3 in his last five with two knockout losses — is the durability there for a full 15?
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