UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Daniil Donchenko defeats Punahele Soriano by unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Donchenko vs Soriano · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Donchenko dropped Soriano in round one with a combination and followed with elbows while Soriano hung on to a single leg.
Soriano spent rounds one and two swinging and missing while Donchenko picked at the body and legs.
Soriano's only sustained success came in round three — several takedowns, brief back control and a slam — and it did not change the outcome.
- Ben Cartlidge30–27
- David Lethaby30–27
- Eric Colon29–28
- Official UFC resultsUFC Paris: Hooker vs Parnasse — Results
- Round-by-round play-by-playUFC Paris 'Hooker vs. Parnasse' play-by-play, results & round scoring
- Official UFC scorecardsUFC Paris — official judges' scorecards
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Donchenko
Donchenko lands 8.07 significant strikes a minute, comfortably the highest rate on this main card, and 62% of what he throws arrives — 210 landed from 337. He adds 2.30 knockdowns per 15 minutes behind a 70% striking defence, and at 24 he is nine years younger than Soriano. His last outing was a second-round stoppage of Theodor Berggren in June.
Case for Soriano
Soriano brings the deeper Octagon sample: 537 significant strikes landed from 1,001 thrown, against Donchenko’s 210, and a 10:08 average that says he is used to still being there in the third. He lands 4.42 a minute and has 31 takedown attempts on his UFC record — a route away from Donchenko’s best work.
What We Were Watching For
- Output gap: 8.07 significant strikes a minute for Donchenko against 4.42 for Soriano.
- Soriano defends 47% of significant strikes against the highest-volume striker on this main card.
- Knockdown average: 2.30 for Donchenko, 0.74 for Soriano.
- Soriano has attempted 31 takedowns in the UFC against a man who defends 75% of them.
Records & career stats
- 14-2-0
- Record
- 13-4-0
- 5-0 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Ukraine
- Nationality
- United States
- 24
- Age
- 33
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- Source pending
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 69%
- —
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- 7
- 10:16
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 10:30
- Syndicate MMA and Tiger Muay Thai
- Team
- Xtreme Couture - Las Vegas, NV
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniil Donchenko · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Daniil Donchenko as its pick over Punahele Soriano.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniil Donchenko · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
Rates Donchenko's varied striking as too dangerous for the more boxing-bound Soriano.
“So, we'll believe in Donchenko to get the job done. And uh I do hope he shows us a bit of the patience, but he's live to knock Sorano out.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniil Donchenko
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
Rates Donchenko's striking a step ahead but stays open between a decision and a body-shot finish.
“but Donenko striking I think is a step ahead and I think he gets this one done”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniil Donchenko · Dec
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
Rates Donchenko's striking volume and body work higher, and doubts Soriano's cardio if the wrestling does not pay off.
“going to go Donchenko here. I'll take him to win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniil Donchenko
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
Expects Donchenko to build an early striking lead that makes Soriano's late wrestling look desperate.
“I am going to pick Denil Donchenko because I think the striking is that much better and I think he'll get ahead in the striking.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniil Donchenko · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
Favours Donchenko's pressure and finishing habit over Soriano's underrated but less tested record.
“I'm going to go with Daniel Donenko Biko in the second round.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.2% 92 56
- Method Accuracy 60.8% 45 29
- Round Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Underdog Accuracy 26.9% 7 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniil Donchenko · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
Cites Donchenko's varied, heavy striking and body work as too much for Soriano.
“Man, I like Denil Donchenko knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 31 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.4% (31 hit, 23 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 68.2% (15 hit, 7 miss, across 22 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 30.8% (4 hit, 9 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.4% 31 23
- Method Accuracy 68.2% 15 7
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Daniil Donchenko
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
Vreeland expects Donchenko to deny Soriano reliable takedowns and have the advantage in a striking fight.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (17 hit, 14 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Punahele Soriano · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
Rates Donchenko's style but reads his defence as too loose against Soriano's straight left and wrestling threat.
“I'm picking Punah Soraniano.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Punahele Soriano · KO/TKO
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
Picks Daniil Donchenko by knockout.
“Give me Dell Don Jenko by Knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.5% (20 hit, 11 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (6 hit, 12 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Punahele Soriano · Dec
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
MMA Mania's UFC Paris X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Punahele Soriano by decision.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Punahele Soriano
Fight result: Daniil Donchenko · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Punahele Soriano.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA Husky Hustler Miss; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Mike Finch Hit; Andrew Richardson Miss; Daniel Vreeland Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
8 of 12 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 7 sportsbooks
Favoured: Donchenko (67%) Called it
Donchenko defeats Soriano · Dec
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