70%
Sy
30%
Bukauskas
PickSy · DecisionActualBukauskas · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedModestas Bukauskas defeats Oumar Sy by KO/TKO
Sy vs Bukauskas · Hooker vs. Parnasse
Watch
More from this fight.
Signature moments
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Sy took a body kick into a single-leg, then mount, back and mount again with elbows and enough ground-and-pound that the referee warned Bukauskas to defend himself.
Bukauskas came out for round two with visible damage under his right eye, reversed one of Sy's takedowns into side control, then took over on the feet as Sy's output dropped.
A knee to the head sat Sy down and Bukauskas swarmed with punches until the referee intervened.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Paris: Hooker vs Parnasse — Results
- Round-by-round play-by-playUFC Paris 'Hooker vs. Parnasse' play-by-play, results & round scoring
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
5
LSy
2
BukauskasW
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; HopperoMMA Hit; James Lynch Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; AJ Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss.
All 7 analyst scorecardsWinner, method and round results7 scored · 2 hits · 5 misses
| Predicted by | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukauskas · KO/TKO · R2 | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
| Distrusts Sy's grappling entries after a prior submission loss and backs Bukauskas' takedown defence and right hand. “going with Modestas Bukauskas to win this one by round two TKO.” Track record: winner called in 83 of 126 resolved picks. | |||||
| Bukauskas · Dec | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Doubts Sy's record against real competition and prefers Bukauskas' steadier UFC form. “I'm going to go Modest Picowskis by decision.” Track record: winner called in 58 of 92 resolved picks. | |||||
| Sy · Dec | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Rates Sy's level of opposition and power higher, and expects a close fight scored at home in Paris. “give me C by decision to have a close fight here with Modesus.” Track record: winner called in 26 of 36 resolved picks. | |||||
| Sy · Dec | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Expects Sy to simply do more over fifteen minutes than a low-output Bukauskas. “I'll take Omar Sy to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by decision.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 112 resolved picks. | |||||
| Sy · to win | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Rates Sy the bigger, faster, more well-rounded athlete, while declining to back the decision prop. “I do think Umar Sal wins this fight.” Track record: winner called in 79 of 121 resolved picks. | |||||
| Sy · Dec | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Thinks Sy's reach and wrestling let him out-work Bukauskas across fifteen minutes. “I'm going to go with Umarci on the judges scorecards to do a little more over the 15 minutes and take it on uh unanimous decision probably.” Track record: winner called in 75 of 109 resolved picks. | |||||
| Sy · Dec | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Calls both fighters unreliable but gives Sy a slight edge on reach and grappling in an expected split. “But in terms of a pick, I'll pick Umarci.” Track record: winner called in 60 of 90 resolved picks. | |||||
Only 2 of 7 called the upset.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions — Results
Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result. Winner, method and round are scored separately; market context names whether it comes from a qualified sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Bukauskas · KO/TKO · R2
Closest probability Claude put 36% on Bukauskas.
64%
Sy
36%
Bukauskas
PickSy · KO/TKO · R1ActualBukauskas · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
66%
Sy
34%
Bukauskas
PickSy · KO/TKO · R2ActualBukauskas · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedArchive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 12-2-0
- Record
- 20-7-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- —
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- France
- Nationality
- Lithuania
- Bulgarian Top Team
- Team
- Gintas Combat
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Sy
Sy is 12-2 and the longest fighter on the card at 211 cm of reach. He absorbs 1.87 significant strikes a minute behind 67% defence — the best defensive pairing in this bout — and has never been knocked down in the UFC: 0.00 knockdown average conceded across an 08:34 average.
Case for Bukauskas
Bukauskas is a kickboxer with 20 wins and the volume record here: 411 significant strikes landed to Sy’s 146. His 82% takedown defence meets a man who has attempted 20 takedowns and landed 2, a 10% conversion rate.
What We Were Watching For
- Sy has attempted 20 takedowns in the UFC and landed 2. Bukauskas defends 82%.
- Reach: 211 cm for Sy, 198 cm for Bukauskas — a 13 cm gap at light heavyweight.
- Bukauskas absorbs 3.86 a minute to Sy’s 1.87, and lands 3.14 to Sy’s 3.41.
- Neither man is a knockdown threat by the numbers: 0.11 for Bukauskas, 0.00 for Sy.
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot
AI Predictions
Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.
The Read
Latest snapshot · T-1
Providers research independently. FightCard retains only their final forecasts, not their research.
ChatGPT
70%
30%
Claude
64%
36%
Gemini
66%
34%
3 of 3 models favour Sy. The combined forecast puts 42% on KO/TKO as the likeliest finish.
Where the models differ
The models differ on finish method, round timing, confidence. The full model calls are below.
- ChatGPTSy · Decision · high confidence
- ClaudeSy · KO/TKO · Round 1 · medium confidence
- GeminiSy · KO/TKO · Round 2 · medium confidence
Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Sy.
Method outlook KO/TKO 42% · Submission 19% · Decision 39%.
Model spread 64%–70% Sy · 30%–36% Bukauskas.
Record status ChatGPT: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent · Claude: 11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent · Gemini: 13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
ChatGPT
gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
70%
Sy
30%
Bukauskas
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
25%
12%
37% · KO/TKO: Sy 25%, Bukauskas 12%
13%
3%
16% · Submission: Sy 13%, Bukauskas 3%
32%
15%
47% · Decision: Sy 32%, Bukauskas 15%
Pick
Oumar Sy
Forecast
Sy is the pick at 70%, with Decision as the forecast result.
KO/TKO 37%Submission 16%Decision 47%
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
Claude
claude-sonnet-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
64%
Sy
36%
Bukauskas
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
30%
18%
48% · KO/TKO: Sy 30%, Bukauskas 18%
20%
5%
25% · Submission: Sy 20%, Bukauskas 5%
14%
13%
27% · Decision: Sy 14%, Bukauskas 13%
Pick
Oumar Sy
Forecast
Sy is the pick at 64%, with KO/TKO · Round 1 as the forecast result.
KO/TKO 48%Submission 25%Decision 27%
11 of 17 correct · 3 settled events · 17 covered · 6 absent
Gemini
provider-default-unreported · via AGY CLI · 2026-09-05
Overall win probability
66%
Sy
34%
Bukauskas
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
28%
14%
42% · KO/TKO: Sy 28%, Bukauskas 14%
14%
2%
16% · Submission: Sy 14%, Bukauskas 2%
24%
18%
42% · Decision: Sy 24%, Bukauskas 18%
Pick
Oumar Sy
Forecast
Sy is the pick at 66%, with KO/TKO · Round 2 as the forecast result.
KO/TKO 42%Submission 16%Decision 42%
13 of 23 correct · 3 settled events · 23 covered · 0 absent
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
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