UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse  5 Sep 2026 · Accor Arena, Paris, France, FR

Modestas Bukauskas defeats Oumar Sy by KO/TKO

Loss Oumar Sy 12-3-0
Win Modestas Bukauskas 21-7-0
KO/TKO · knee and punches

Round 2 · 3:57

Sy vs Bukauskas · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Sy took a body kick into a single-leg, then mount, back and mount again with elbows and enough ground-and-pound that the referee warned Bukauskas to defend himself.

Bukauskas came out for round two with visible damage under his right eye, reversed one of Sy's takedowns into side control, then took over on the feet as Sy's output dropped.

A knee to the head sat Sy down and Bukauskas swarmed with punches until the referee intervened.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Sy

Sy is 12-2 and the longest fighter on the card at 211 cm of reach. He absorbs 1.87 significant strikes a minute behind 67% defence — the best defensive pairing in this bout — and has never been knocked down in the UFC: 0.00 knockdown average conceded across an 08:34 average.

Case for Bukauskas

Bukauskas is a kickboxer with 20 wins and the volume record here: 411 significant strikes landed to Sy’s 146. His 82% takedown defence meets a man who has attempted 20 takedowns and landed 2, a 10% conversion rate.

What We Were Watching For

  • Sy has attempted 20 takedowns in the UFC and landed 2. Bukauskas defends 82%.
  • Reach: 211 cm for Sy, 198 cm for Bukauskas — a 13 cm gap at light heavyweight.
  • Bukauskas absorbs 3.86 a minute to Sy’s 1.87, and lands 3.14 to Sy’s 3.41.
  • Neither man is a knockdown threat by the numbers: 0.11 for Bukauskas, 0.00 for Sy.
Records & career stats
Sy vs Bukauskas
Sy Bukauskas
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 3.57 3.10
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 64% 50%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 1.97 3.89
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 67% 78%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 75% 71%
12-2-0
Record
20-7-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
France
Nationality
Lithuania
30
Age
32
6′4″193 cm
Height — Sy leads
6′3″191 cm
83″211 cm
Reach — Sy leads
78″198 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
75%
Finish rateFinish % — Sy leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
71%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Bukauskas leads
12
4
Wins by submissionSub wins — Sy leads
3
3.57
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Sy leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.10
1.97
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Sy leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.89
64%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Sy leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
67%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Bukauskas leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
78%
08:38
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:59
Bulgarian Top Team
Team
Gintas Combat

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy · KO/TKO

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

FightIQ's public record lists Oumar Sy as its pick over Modestas Bukauskas.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
AJ Devito
Hear it — 15:48 AJ Devito on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Thinks Sy's reach and wrestling let him out-work Bukauskas across fifteen minutes.

“I'm going to go with Umarci on the judges scorecards to do a little more over the 15 minutes and take it on uh unanimous decision probably.”

Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).

View full track record (264 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 14:29 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Calls both fighters unreliable but gives Sy a slight edge on reach and grappling in an expected split.

“But in terms of a pick, I'll pick Umarci.”

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 6:36 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Expects Sy to simply do more over fifteen minutes than a low-output Bukauskas.

“I'll take Omar Sy to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 20:34 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Rates Sy the bigger, faster, more well-rounded athlete, while declining to back the decision prop.

“I do think Umar Sal wins this fight.”

Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).

View full track record (145 calls)
James Lynch
Source unavailable — 6:39 James Lynch on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Oumar Sy · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Rates Sy's level of opposition and power higher, and expects a close fight scored at home in Paris.

“give me C by decision to have a close fight here with Modesus.”

Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).

View full track record (59 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 8:31 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Distrusts Sy's grappling entries after a prior submission loss and backs Bukauskas' takedown defence and right hand.

“going with Modestas Bukauskas to win this one by round two TKO.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
MMA Husky Hustler
Hear it — 10:16 MMA Husky Hustler on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Modestas Bukauskas · Dec

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Picks Oumar Sy by decision.

“Give me um sigh by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.5% (20 hit, 11 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (6 hit, 12 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).

View full track record (31 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 6:06 HopperMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Modestas Bukauskas

Fight result: Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO

Prefers Bukauskas, while the transcript's method wording is not reliable enough to retain a method.

“I'm going to go with Modestas Bukauskas.”

Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).

View full track record (148 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Miss; AJ Devito Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; MMA Husky Hustler Hit; We Want Picks Miss; HopperMMA Hit; James Lynch Miss.

Only 3 of 9 called the upset.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Bukauskas · KO/TKO · R2

Closest probability Claude put 36% on Bukauskas.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
70% Sy
30% Bukauskas
PickSy · DecisionActualBukauskas · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
64% Sy
36% Bukauskas
PickSy · KO/TKO · R1ActualBukauskas · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
66% Sy
34% Bukauskas
PickSy · KO/TKO · R2ActualBukauskas · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Sy

    Most likely: Sy by decision, about 32 in 100

    Win chance: Sy 70%, Bukauskas 30%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Sy

    Most likely: Sy by KO/TKO, about 30 in 100

    Win chance: Sy 64%, Bukauskas 36%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Sy

    Most likely: Sy by KO/TKO, about 28 in 100

    Win chance: Sy 66%, Bukauskas 34%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

3 of 3 models pick Sy.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 30%.

  • Claude

    Sy: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 36%.

  • Gemini

    Sy: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 34%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy by decision: 32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Claude

    Sy by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Sy by KO/TKO: 28% (about 28 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Sy by decision (32%); 2. Sy by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Bukauskas by decision (15%)

  • Claude

    1. Sy by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Sy by submission (20%); 3. Bukauskas by KO/TKO (18%)

  • Gemini

    1. Sy by KO/TKO (28%); 2. Sy by decision (24%); 3. Bukauskas by decision (18%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Sy's 70% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Sy's 64% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Sy's 66% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 53%. Decision: 47%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 73%. Decision: 27%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 42%.

How does Sy win?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy wins 70%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%, decision 32%.

  • Claude

    Sy wins 64%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 20%, decision 14%.

  • Gemini

    Sy wins 66%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%, decision 24%.

How does Bukauskas win?

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas wins 30%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 15%.

  • Claude

    Bukauskas wins 36%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 5%, decision 13%.

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas wins 34%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%, decision 18%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas's most likely upset: Bukauskas by decision (15%).

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas's most likely upset: Bukauskas by decision (18%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Sy.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by decision (32%).

  • Claude

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by KO/TKO (30%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by KO/TKO (28%).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 37%, submission 16%, decision 47%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 48%, submission 25%, decision 27%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 42%, submission 16%, decision 42%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 38%, against 15% for Bukauskas.

  • Claude

    Sy: 50%, against 23% for Bukauskas.

  • Gemini

    Sy: 42%, against 16% for Bukauskas.

Can Sy get the finish? Can Bukauskas?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 38% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%). Bukauskas: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%).

  • Claude

    Sy: 50% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 20%). Bukauskas: 23% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 5%).

  • Gemini

    Sy: 42% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%). Bukauskas: 16% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 13%.

  • Claude

    Sy is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 5%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 20%.

  • Gemini

    Sy is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 2%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 14%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 36%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Sy by decision: 32%. Bukauskas by decision: 15%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Bukauskas wins 36% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    47%.

  • Claude

    27%.

  • Gemini

    42%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 68%, Bukauskas 32%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 52%, Bukauskas 48%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 57%, Bukauskas 43%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Sy by decision, 32% here against 19% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Sy by decision, 14% here against 28% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Bukauskas by decision, 18% here against 14% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (70%).

  • Claude

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (64%).

  • Gemini

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (66%).

Which model is most confident on Sy, and which on Bukauskas?

  • All models

    On Sy: ChatGPT (70%). On Bukauskas: Claude (36%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • All models

    Sy by decision: from 14% (Claude) to 32% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    James Lynch (Sy by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Sy by decision) and AJ Devito (Sy by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Sy, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    No.

  • Claude

    Yes.

  • Gemini

    No.

ChatGPT

Pick

Sy

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Sy by decision, about 32 in 100

Win chance: Sy 70%, Bukauskas 30%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Sy by decision32%
  2. Sy by KO/TKO25%
  3. Bukauskas by decision15%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Sy 25%, Bukauskas 12%.
  2. Submission: Sy 13%, Bukauskas 3%.
  3. Decision: Sy 32%, Bukauskas 15%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 30%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Sy: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 36%.

  • Gemini

    Sy: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 34%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy by decision: 32% (about 32 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Sy by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Sy by KO/TKO: 28% (about 28 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • ChatGPT

    1. Sy by decision (32%); 2. Sy by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Bukauskas by decision (15%)

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    1. Sy by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Sy by submission (20%); 3. Bukauskas by KO/TKO (18%)

  • Gemini

    1. Sy by KO/TKO (28%); 2. Sy by decision (24%); 3. Bukauskas by decision (18%)

How confident is the model?

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Sy's 70% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Sy's 64% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Sy's 66% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 53%. Decision: 47%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 73%. Decision: 27%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 42%.

How does Sy win?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy wins 70%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%, decision 32%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Sy wins 64%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 20%, decision 14%.

  • Gemini

    Sy wins 66%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%, decision 24%.

How does Bukauskas win?

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas wins 30%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 15%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Bukauskas wins 36%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 5%, decision 13%.

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas wins 34%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%, decision 18%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas's most likely upset: Bukauskas by decision (15%).

Other models' answers

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas's most likely upset: Bukauskas by decision (18%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Sy.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by decision (32%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by KO/TKO (30%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by KO/TKO (28%).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 37%, submission 16%, decision 47%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 48%, submission 25%, decision 27%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 42%, submission 16%, decision 42%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 38%, against 15% for Bukauskas.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Sy: 50%, against 23% for Bukauskas.

  • Gemini

    Sy: 42%, against 16% for Bukauskas.

Can Sy get the finish? Can Bukauskas?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 38% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%). Bukauskas: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Sy: 50% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 20%). Bukauskas: 23% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 5%).

  • Gemini

    Sy: 42% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%). Bukauskas: 16% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 13%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Sy is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 5%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 20%.

  • Gemini

    Sy is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 2%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 14%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 36%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win

  • ChatGPT

    Sy by decision: 32%. Bukauskas by decision: 15%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Bukauskas wins 36% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • ChatGPT

    47%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    27%.

  • Gemini

    42%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 68%, Bukauskas 32%.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 52%, Bukauskas 48%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 57%, Bukauskas 43%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Sy by decision, 32% here against 19% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Sy by decision, 14% here against 28% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Bukauskas by decision, 18% here against 14% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • ChatGPT

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (70%).

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (64%).

  • Gemini

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (66%).

Which model is most confident on Sy, and which on Bukauskas?

  • ChatGPT

    On Sy: ChatGPT (70%). On Bukauskas: Claude (36%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • ChatGPT

    Sy by decision: from 14% (Claude) to 32% (ChatGPT).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?

  • ChatGPT

    James Lynch (Sy by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Sy by decision) and AJ Devito (Sy by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Sy, most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • ChatGPT

    No.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Sy

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Sy by KO/TKO, about 30 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 1.

Win chance: Sy 64%, Bukauskas 36%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Sy by KO/TKO30%
  2. Sy by submission20%
  3. Bukauskas by KO/TKO18%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Sy 30%, Bukauskas 18%.
  2. Submission: Sy 20%, Bukauskas 5%.
  3. Decision: Sy 14%, Bukauskas 13%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Claude

    Sy: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 36%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 30%.

  • Gemini

    Sy: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 34%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Claude

    Sy by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy by decision: 32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Sy by KO/TKO: 28% (about 28 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Claude

    1. Sy by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Sy by submission (20%); 3. Bukauskas by KO/TKO (18%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Sy by decision (32%); 2. Sy by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Bukauskas by decision (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Sy by KO/TKO (28%); 2. Sy by decision (24%); 3. Bukauskas by decision (18%)

How confident is the model?

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Sy's 64% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Sy's 70% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Sy's 66% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 73%. Decision: 27%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 53%. Decision: 47%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 42%.

How does Sy win?

  • Claude

    Sy wins 64%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 20%, decision 14%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy wins 70%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%, decision 32%.

  • Gemini

    Sy wins 66%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%, decision 24%.

How does Bukauskas win?

  • Claude

    Bukauskas wins 36%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 5%, decision 13%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas wins 30%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 15%.

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas wins 34%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%, decision 18%.

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Sy.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Claude

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by KO/TKO (30%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by decision (32%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by KO/TKO (28%).

More questions (17)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 48%, submission 25%, decision 27%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 37%, submission 16%, decision 47%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 42%, submission 16%, decision 42%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Claude

    Sy: 50%, against 23% for Bukauskas.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 38%, against 15% for Bukauskas.

  • Gemini

    Sy: 42%, against 16% for Bukauskas.

Can Sy get the finish? Can Bukauskas?

  • Claude

    Sy: 50% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 20%). Bukauskas: 23% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 5%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 38% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%). Bukauskas: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%).

  • Gemini

    Sy: 42% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%). Bukauskas: 16% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Claude

    Sy is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 5%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 20%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 13%.

  • Gemini

    Sy is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 2%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 14%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 36%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Claude

    Bukauskas wins 36% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Claude

    27%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    47%.

  • Gemini

    42%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 52%, Bukauskas 48%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 68%, Bukauskas 32%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 57%, Bukauskas 43%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Sy by decision, 14% here against 28% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Sy by decision, 32% here against 19% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Bukauskas by decision, 18% here against 14% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Claude

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (64%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (70%).

  • Gemini

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (66%).

Which model is most confident on Sy, and which on Bukauskas?

  • Claude

    On Sy: ChatGPT (70%). On Bukauskas: Claude (36%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Claude

    Sy by decision: from 14% (Claude) to 32% (ChatGPT).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Claude

    Yes.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    No.

  • Gemini

    No.

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Sy

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Sy by KO/TKO, about 28 in 100

The model's predicted finish round: 2.

Win chance: Sy 66%, Bukauskas 34%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Sy by KO/TKO28%
  2. Sy by decision24%
  3. Bukauskas by decision18%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Sy 28%, Bukauskas 14%.
  2. Submission: Sy 14%, Bukauskas 2%.
  3. Decision: Sy 24%, Bukauskas 18%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?

  • Gemini

    Sy: 66% (about 66 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 34%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 30%.

  • Claude

    Sy: 64% (about 64 in 100 fights). Bukauskas: 36%.

What is the single most likely outcome?

  • Gemini

    Sy by KO/TKO: 28% (about 28 in 100).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy by decision: 32% (about 32 in 100).

  • Claude

    Sy by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?

  • Gemini

    1. Sy by KO/TKO (28%); 2. Sy by decision (24%); 3. Bukauskas by decision (18%)

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    1. Sy by decision (32%); 2. Sy by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Bukauskas by decision (15%)

  • Claude

    1. Sy by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Sy by submission (20%); 3. Bukauskas by KO/TKO (18%)

How confident is the model?

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Sy's 66% win chance.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    7 of 10, based on Sy's 70% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Sy's 64% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 58%. Decision: 42%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 53%. Decision: 47%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 73%. Decision: 27%.

How does Sy win?

  • Gemini

    Sy wins 66%: KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%, decision 24%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy wins 70%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%, decision 32%.

  • Claude

    Sy wins 64%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 20%, decision 14%.

How does Bukauskas win?

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas wins 34%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%, decision 18%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas wins 30%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 15%.

  • Claude

    Bukauskas wins 36%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 5%, decision 13%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas's most likely upset: Bukauskas by decision (18%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas's most likely upset: Bukauskas by decision (15%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?

  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Sy.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?

  • Gemini

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by KO/TKO (28%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by decision (32%).

  • Claude

    Result: Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2. Bukauskas by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Sy by KO/TKO (30%).

More questions (17)

The result 6 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 42%, submission 16%, decision 42%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 37%, submission 16%, decision 47%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 48%, submission 25%, decision 27%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?

  • Gemini

    Sy: 42%, against 16% for Bukauskas.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 38%, against 15% for Bukauskas.

  • Claude

    Sy: 50%, against 23% for Bukauskas.

Can Sy get the finish? Can Bukauskas?

  • Gemini

    Sy: 42% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 14%). Bukauskas: 16% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 2%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy: 38% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%). Bukauskas: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%).

  • Claude

    Sy: 50% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 20%). Bukauskas: 23% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 5%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?

  • Gemini

    Sy is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 2%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 28% and submitted in 14%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Sy is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 13%.

  • Claude

    Sy is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 5%. Bukauskas is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 20%.

How lopsided is this fight?

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 66% vs 34%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.

  • Claude

    Lopsided: 64% vs 36%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?

  • Gemini

    Bukauskas wins 34% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Bukauskas wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

  • Claude

    Bukauskas wins 36% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision

  • Gemini

    42%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    47%.

  • Claude

    27%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 57%, Bukauskas 43%.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 68%, Bukauskas 32%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Sy 52%, Bukauskas 48%.

Compared with others 4 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Bukauskas by decision, 18% here against 14% on average for the others.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Sy by decision, 32% here against 19% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Sy by decision, 14% here against 28% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?

  • Gemini

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (66%).

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (70%).

  • Claude

    Of 9 analyst picks, 6 back Sy and 3 back Bukauskas. This model picks Sy (64%).

Which model is most confident on Sy, and which on Bukauskas?

  • Gemini

    On Sy: ChatGPT (70%). On Bukauskas: Claude (36%).

Where do the models disagree most?

  • Gemini

    Sy by decision: from 14% (Claude) to 32% (ChatGPT).

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?

  • Gemini

    On 5 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers

  • ChatGPT

    On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.

  • Claude

    On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

What can't the model know?

  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?

  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?

  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?

  • Gemini

    No.

Other models' answers

  • Claude

    Yes.

Version not reported · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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