UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Losene Keita defeats Muhammad Naimov by KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:54
Keita vs Naimov · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Keita hurt Naimov with a left hook in the opening exchanges and never gave the round back, opening a cut near Naimov's left eye.
A jab dropped Naimov; Keita followed with punches on the floor and let him stand.
Naimov was unconscious on the overhand right before he hit the canvas. No follow-up shots were needed.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Paris: Hooker vs Parnasse — Results
- Round-by-round play-by-playUFC Paris 'Hooker vs. Parnasse' play-by-play, results & round scoring
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Keita
Keita is 16-2, a former simultaneous two-division Oktagon champion, and out-works Naimov on the numbers that exist: 3.47 significant strikes a minute to 2.51, and a 62% striking defence to 45%. Before the UFC called he had won five straight, three of them by stoppage.
Case for Naimov
Naimov has the far deeper Octagon record — 227 significant strikes landed from 558 thrown across an 11:17 average, against Keita’s 52 from 119 — and a route Keita has barely been asked about: 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes from 30 attempts. He also beat Nathaniel Wood on the cards in October 2023, the man who beat Keita in March.
What We Were Watching For
- Sample size: every UFC rate for Keita rests on a single fight — a split-decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in March 2026 that went the full 15:00, with 52 significant strikes landed.
- Naimov defends 45% of significant strikes to Keita’s 62%, and absorbs 3.35 a minute.
- Naimov was stopped by punches 21 seconds into the third round by Mairon Santos in December 2025 — the fighter the UFC has since removed from this card’s Nathaniel Wood bout.
- Keita’s 100% takedown defence has been tested across one fight. Naimov has attempted 30 takedowns in the UFC.
Records & career stats
- 3.91 2.48
- 65% 44%
- 3.97 3.44
- 100% 68%
- 65% 62%
- 16-2-0
- Record
- 13-4-0
- Source pending
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Belgium
- Nationality
- Tajikistan
- 28
- Age
- 32
- Source pending
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 08:57
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 10:21
- Lamiro Fight Club
- Team
- ONX Labs
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Expects Keita's power and counter timing to punish an increasingly aggressive Naimov.
“I'm going to say Loik Kietza wins by round two or three KO.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Losene Keita · Dec
Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Losene Keita as its pick over Muhammad Naimov.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Rates Keita's speed and layered striking well above what he calls a generalist in Naimov.
“I'm going with Los Kea.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Backs Keita's power to find the finish against a more technical but less dangerous Naimov.
“Give me Lucen Kada by round two knockout here.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Losene Keita · Dec
Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Expects Keita's forward pressure to exploit a low-volume, back-footed Naimov.
“Keita to win this fight by decision, pressure, land big shots, outwork Naimov, and I'll win this fight on the scorecards.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Picks Losene Keita by knockout without committing to a single round.
“Hit me low san by knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.5% (20 hit, 11 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (6 hit, 12 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Losene Keita
Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Backs Keita's speed and power against striking-defence flaws Naimov already showed.
“So, Lazine Keat is going to be the pick.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
MMA Mania's UFC Paris X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Losene Keita by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
Vreeland expects Keita to keep the fight standing, exploit Naimov’s limitations when takedowns fail, and finish with his power.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (17 hit, 14 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Muhammad Naimov
Fight result: Losene Keita · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Muhammad Naimov.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA Husky Hustler Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Daniel Vreeland Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
9 of 10 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
Favoured: Keita (76%) Called it
Keita defeats Naimov · KO/TKO R1
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