UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Matthieu Duclos defeats Luis Felipe Dias by KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:35
Duclos vs Dias · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Dias had the better of the first four minutes with hard body kicks, a knee to the midsection and power punching from both hands, while Duclos worked behind his jab.
As Dias came in, Duclos clipped him with a check left hook that dropped him, then followed with hammerfists to end it.
Duclos followed the knockdown with hammerfists and ended it with 25 seconds remaining in the round.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Paris: Hooker vs Parnasse — Results
- Round-by-round play-by-playUFC Paris 'Hooker vs. Parnasse' play-by-play, results & round scoring
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Duclos
Duclos wins by knockout or not at all: eight of his ten wins are knockouts, none by submission, and he conceded no takedowns at 100% defence in his one Contender Series bout. At 196 cm he holds an 8 cm reach advantage, and fights in front of a French crowd.
Case for Dias
Dias has finished seventeen of his eighteen wins — nine knockouts and eight submissions, one decision in an 18-5 career. He carries a 4.52 takedown average per 15 minutes and a 1.13 submission average into a fight with a man who has zero submission wins.
What We Were Watching For
- Duclos absorbs 6.81 significant strikes a minute — the highest figure on this card — behind 46% defence.
- Dias has one decision win in eighteen. Duclos has two in ten, and no submissions at all.
- Duclos stuffed every takedown attempt in that one Contender Series bout; Dias attempts 4.52 per 15 minutes but has landed 0 of 7 in the UFC.
- Both average under eight minutes a fight: 07:38 for Duclos, 06:39 for Dias.
Records & career stats
- 10-3-0
- Record
- 18-5-0
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- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- France
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 31
- Age
- 31
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 82%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- 06:07
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 05:57
- Woirin Team Elite
- Team
- Vale Top Team
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Matthieu Duclos
Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO
Rates Duclos' reach and counter-striking as the tool to catch a chin-up, square-standing Dias.
“going to go with Duduco to win this one by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO
Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Matthieu Duclos as its pick over Luis Felipe Dias.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO
Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO
Points to Dias never checking kicks as the opening for Duclos' leg kicks and mobility.
“I think that Ducllo is a tricky matchup for Luis Phipe Diaz. And I'm going to pick Ducllo here.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.3% 175 89
- Method Accuracy 58.7% 61 43
- Round Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 12 21
Current pick evidence
Picked: Matthieu Duclos
Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO
Backs Duclos' sharper technical striking to catch a slowing Dias, without settling on finish or decision.
“in terms of a pick, I'll say Dlo gets it done.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO
Impressed by Duclos' power, kicks and clinch work, and expects Dias' cardio to fade as the fight extends.
“Duclo to win by second round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Matthieu Duclos · Sub
Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO
Picks Luis Felipe Dias by submission.
“Give me Louise Phipe Diaz by submission.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.5% (20 hit, 11 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (6 hit, 12 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.5% 20 11
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 6 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Matthieu Duclos
Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO
Prefers Duclos' patient, accurate counter striking to Dias' less disciplined overhand-heavy pressure.
“I don't hate the Tal Duclos. I never would have bet on him like this, but I do think he wins the fight.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO
Points to Duclos' knockout tally against a Dias already finished by strikes twice.
“I'll take uh Ducolos uh by second round knockout to get it done over Diaz.”
Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 61.0% 36 23
- Method Accuracy 45.0% 9 11
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA Husky Hustler Hit; We Want Picks Hit; James Lynch Hit.
8 of 8 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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