UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Round 1 · 2:35
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
A Parnasse kick to the body doubled Hooker over and sent him retreating to the fence.
Parnasse followed him in with a punching flurry, a clean left hook inside it, and the referee stepped in. There was no knockdown-and-recovery phase — body kick to stoppage in one sequence.
The card's only scheduled five-rounder was over inside one, with no knockdown-and-recovery phase in between.
Hooker is the only man in this fight with Octagon tape: 1,171 significant strikes landed from 2,405 thrown since his June 2014 debut, at 4.82 a minute, behind 77% takedown defence. He brings 38 professional fights to Parnasse’s 25, and a main event is territory he has occupied before against the division’s best.
Parnasse is 23-2 and arrives on a five-fight winning streak in which every single result was a finish — four TKOs and a head-kick KO — including three defences of the KSW lightweight title and a first-round stoppage of Kenneth Cross in May. He is eight years younger, he has won in Paris twice, and Hooker has not finished anyone since November 2022.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Picked: Dan Hooker · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Believes the line undersells Hooker's chin, cardio and full camp, and expects him to weather an early Parnasse push and finish late.
“I think Dan Hooker is going to win by a third round TKO.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
Picked: Dan Hooker · KO/TKO
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
MMA Mania's UFC Paris preview has Jesse Holland picking Dan Hooker by technical knockout.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 49.1% (27 hit, 28 miss, across 55 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 method-scored calls on 55 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 27.8% (5 hit, 13 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 55 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Salahdine Parnasse to land a big shot and knock out Dan Hooker; no single round is committed.
“Pernal ends up landing a big shot and then ends up knocking Dan Hooker out.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 78.6% (11 hit, 3 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 30.0% (3 hit, 7 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 14 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 round-scored calls on 14 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 100.0% (2 hit, 0 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Salahdine Parnasse inside the distance without selecting a specific finish method.
“I'm going to go with Parnasse here inside the distance.”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 72.7% (8 hit, 3 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 11 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Salahdine Parnasse as its pick over Dan Hooker.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Believes Parnasse's rounded striking and grappling exploit Hooker's declining defence.
“So, we're going Parnas in the main event with just simply too many weapons, much athleticism, too much precision.”
Track record: winner called in 175 of 264 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 66.3% (175 hit, 89 miss, across 264 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.7% (61 hit, 43 miss, across 104 method-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 77.8% (7 hit, 2 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 264 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (12 hit, 21 miss, across 33 underdog calls on 264 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Salahdine Parnasse's speed, straight left hand, and all-around game to stop Dan Hooker within the first three rounds.
“I think Salahdine Parnasse is able to TKO Dan Hooker inside the first three rounds.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Sees Parnasse as the complete package in his athletic prime against an ageing, frequently finished Hooker.
“Give me Give me Saladin Parnasse to win this fight. I'll take him this to win this fight by third round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · Dec
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Salahdine Parnasse by decision in the UFC Paris main event.
“Give me Saladine Pis by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 20 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.5% (20 hit, 11 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (6 hit, 12 miss, across 18 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Parnasse as the cleaner technical striker provided he manages the range rather than brawling.
“Now, I am picking Saldeen Parnasse because I think he's just more technical, he's cleaner, and the French typically have no issue with slowing a fight down and touching at range.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Salahdine Parnasse by knockout; the transcript does not commit to a single round.
“Salahdine Parnasse via KO.”
Track record: winner called in 10 of 16 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (10 hit, 6 miss, across 16 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 16 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 16 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · Dec
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Sees Parnasse as the clearly superior striker in his prime against a faded, one-dimensional Hooker.
“But I'm going to go Saladine Parnsi by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 92 of 148 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 62.2% (92 hit, 56 miss, across 148 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.8% (45 hit, 29 miss, across 74 method-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 48.8% (20 hit, 21 miss, across 41 round-scored calls on 148 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 26.9% (7 hit, 19 miss, across 26 underdog calls on 148 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Salahdine Parnasse to finish Dan Hooker with a body-shot TKO in round two.
“round two body shot TKO. Saladine Parnas gets the win.”
Track record: winner called in 11 of 18 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 61.1% (11 hit, 7 miss, across 18 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.0% (3 hit, 1 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 18 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 18 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 18 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Salahdine Parnasse to stop Dan Hooker in round three, citing Hooker's inactivity, accumulated punishment, and Parnasse's youth and speed.
“So yeah, Paress third round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 36 of 59 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 61.0% (36 hit, 23 miss, across 59 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 45.0% (9 hit, 11 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 59 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 59 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Salahdine Parnasse and expects the UFC Paris main event to go the full distance.
“I'm going to pick Saladine Parnas. I think it's going to go the full distance.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Salahdine Parnasse by knockout; the transcript mentions a range of rounds rather than one committed round.
“I'm going to go with Salahdine. Give me Salahdine by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
Picked: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Fight result: Salahdine Parnasse · KO/TKO
Picks Salahdine Parnasse by knockout.
“The prediction is going to be Parnasse by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 5 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Winner Accuracy 33.3% (5 hit, 10 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 15 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 3 miss, across 3 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
Analyst picks: TheWagerZone ™ Hit; Dissection Of Violence Hit; Bedtime MMA Miss; FightIQ Hit; AJ Devito Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA Husky Hustler Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Fight IQ with Von Hit; HopperMMA Hit; Leftlane MMA Hit; James Lynch Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; Jesse Holland Miss; Uselyis Hit; FunkyBunch MMA Hit.
15 of 17 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Parnasse · KO/TKO · R1
Closest probability ChatGPT put 78% on Parnasse.
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Parnasse
Most likely: Parnasse by KO/TKO, about 40 in 100
Win chance: Hooker 22%, Parnasse 78%.
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Parnasse
Most likely: Parnasse by KO/TKO, about 34 in 100
Win chance: Hooker 28%, Parnasse 72%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Parnasse
Most likely: Parnasse by decision, about 37 in 100
Win chance: Hooker 37%, Parnasse 63%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
3 of 3 models pick Parnasse.
ChatGPT
Parnasse: 78% (about 78 in 100 fights). Hooker: 22%.
Claude
Parnasse: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Hooker: 28%.
Gemini
Parnasse: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Hooker: 37%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Claude
Parnasse by KO/TKO: 34% (about 34 in 100).
Gemini
Parnasse by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Parnasse by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Parnasse by decision (25%); 3. Parnasse by submission (13%)
Claude
1. Parnasse by KO/TKO (34%); 2. Parnasse by submission (26%); 3. Hooker by KO/TKO (13%)
Gemini
1. Parnasse by decision (37%); 2. Parnasse by KO/TKO (18%); 3. Hooker by decision (17%)
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Parnasse's 78% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on Parnasse's 72% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Parnasse's 63% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 78%. Decision: 22%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 46%. Decision: 54%.
ChatGPT
Hooker wins 22%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 3%, decision 9%.
Claude
Hooker wins 28%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 10%.
Gemini
Hooker wins 37%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 4%, decision 17%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse wins 78%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 13%, decision 25%.
Claude
Parnasse wins 72%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%, decision 12%.
Gemini
Parnasse wins 63%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 37%.
Gemini
Hooker's most likely upset: Hooker by decision (17%).
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Parnasse.
ChatGPT
Result: Parnasse by KO/TKO in round 1. Parnasse by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Claude
Result: Parnasse by KO/TKO in round 1. Parnasse by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
Result: Parnasse by KO/TKO in round 1. Parnasse by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Parnasse by decision (37%).
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 50%, submission 16%, decision 34%.
Claude
KO/TKO 47%, submission 31%, decision 22%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 34%, submission 12%, decision 54%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse: 53%, against 13% for Hooker.
Claude
Parnasse: 60%, against 18% for Hooker.
Gemini
Parnasse: 26%, against 20% for Hooker.
ChatGPT
Hooker: 13% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 3%). Parnasse: 53% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 13%).
Claude
Hooker: 18% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%). Parnasse: 60% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%).
Gemini
Hooker: 20% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 4%). Parnasse: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%).
ChatGPT
Hooker is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 13%. Parnasse is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 3%.
Claude
Hooker is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 26%. Parnasse is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Hooker is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%. Parnasse is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 4%.
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 78% vs 22%.
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Gemini
Hooker by decision: 17%. Parnasse by decision: 37%.
ChatGPT
Hooker wins 22% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Hooker wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Hooker wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
ChatGPT
34%.
Claude
22%.
Gemini
54%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 27%, Parnasse 74%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 46%, Parnasse 55%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 32%, Parnasse 69%.
Claude
Biggest difference: Parnasse by decision, 12% here against 31% on average for the others.
ChatGPT
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (78%).
Claude
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (72%).
Gemini
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (63%).
All models
On Hooker: Gemini (37%). On Parnasse: ChatGPT (78%).
All models
Parnasse by decision: from 12% (Claude) to 37% (Gemini).
Gemini
MMA Husky Hustler (Parnasse by decision) and HopperMMA (Parnasse by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Parnasse, most likely by decision.
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by gemini-web-flash.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
All models
Yes.
Pick
Confidence 8 of 10 · High
Most likely: Parnasse by KO/TKO, about 40 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 3.
Win chance: Hooker 22%, Parnasse 78%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse: 78% (about 78 in 100 fights). Hooker: 22%.
Claude
Parnasse: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Hooker: 28%.
Gemini
Parnasse: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Hooker: 37%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Claude
Parnasse by KO/TKO: 34% (about 34 in 100).
Gemini
Parnasse by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
ChatGPT
1. Parnasse by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Parnasse by decision (25%); 3. Parnasse by submission (13%)
Claude
1. Parnasse by KO/TKO (34%); 2. Parnasse by submission (26%); 3. Hooker by KO/TKO (13%)
Gemini
1. Parnasse by decision (37%); 2. Parnasse by KO/TKO (18%); 3. Hooker by decision (17%)
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Parnasse's 78% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on Parnasse's 72% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Parnasse's 63% win chance.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 78%. Decision: 22%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 46%. Decision: 54%.
ChatGPT
Hooker wins 22%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 3%, decision 9%.
Claude
Hooker wins 28%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 10%.
Gemini
Hooker wins 37%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 4%, decision 17%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse wins 78%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 13%, decision 25%.
Claude
Parnasse wins 72%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%, decision 12%.
Gemini
Parnasse wins 63%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 37%.
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Parnasse.
ChatGPT
Result: Parnasse by KO/TKO in round 1. Parnasse by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
Result: Parnasse by KO/TKO in round 1. Parnasse by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Parnasse by decision (37%).
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 50%, submission 16%, decision 34%.
Claude
KO/TKO 47%, submission 31%, decision 22%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 34%, submission 12%, decision 54%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse: 53%, against 13% for Hooker.
Claude
Parnasse: 60%, against 18% for Hooker.
Gemini
Parnasse: 26%, against 20% for Hooker.
ChatGPT
Hooker: 13% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 3%). Parnasse: 53% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 13%).
Claude
Hooker: 18% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%). Parnasse: 60% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%).
Gemini
Hooker: 20% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 4%). Parnasse: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%).
ChatGPT
Hooker is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 13%. Parnasse is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 3%.
Claude
Hooker is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 26%. Parnasse is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Hooker is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%. Parnasse is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 4%.
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 78% vs 22%.
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
ChatGPT
Hooker wins 22% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Hooker wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Hooker wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
ChatGPT
34%.
Claude
22%.
Gemini
54%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 27%, Parnasse 74%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 46%, Parnasse 55%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 32%, Parnasse 69%.
ChatGPT
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (78%).
Claude
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (72%).
Gemini
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (63%).
ChatGPT
On Hooker: Gemini (37%). On Parnasse: ChatGPT (78%).
ChatGPT
Parnasse by decision: from 12% (Claude) to 37% (Gemini).
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by gemini-web-flash.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Parnasse by KO/TKO, about 34 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 3.
Win chance: Hooker 28%, Parnasse 72%.
Claude
Parnasse: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Hooker: 28%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse: 78% (about 78 in 100 fights). Hooker: 22%.
Gemini
Parnasse: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Hooker: 37%.
Claude
Parnasse by KO/TKO: 34% (about 34 in 100).
ChatGPT
Parnasse by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Gemini
Parnasse by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
Claude
1. Parnasse by KO/TKO (34%); 2. Parnasse by submission (26%); 3. Hooker by KO/TKO (13%)
ChatGPT
1. Parnasse by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Parnasse by decision (25%); 3. Parnasse by submission (13%)
Gemini
1. Parnasse by decision (37%); 2. Parnasse by KO/TKO (18%); 3. Hooker by decision (17%)
Claude
7 of 10, based on Parnasse's 72% win chance.
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Parnasse's 78% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Parnasse's 63% win chance.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 78%. Decision: 22%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 46%. Decision: 54%.
Claude
Hooker wins 28%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 10%.
ChatGPT
Hooker wins 22%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 3%, decision 9%.
Gemini
Hooker wins 37%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 4%, decision 17%.
Claude
Parnasse wins 72%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%, decision 12%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse wins 78%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 13%, decision 25%.
Gemini
Parnasse wins 63%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 37%.
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Parnasse.
Claude
Result: Parnasse by KO/TKO in round 1. Parnasse by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
Result: Parnasse by KO/TKO in round 1. Parnasse by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Parnasse by decision (37%).
Claude
KO/TKO 47%, submission 31%, decision 22%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 50%, submission 16%, decision 34%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 34%, submission 12%, decision 54%.
Claude
Parnasse: 60%, against 18% for Hooker.
ChatGPT
Parnasse: 53%, against 13% for Hooker.
Gemini
Parnasse: 26%, against 20% for Hooker.
Claude
Hooker: 18% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%). Parnasse: 60% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%).
ChatGPT
Hooker: 13% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 3%). Parnasse: 53% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 13%).
Gemini
Hooker: 20% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 4%). Parnasse: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%).
Claude
Hooker is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 26%. Parnasse is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%.
ChatGPT
Hooker is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 13%. Parnasse is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 3%.
Gemini
Hooker is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%. Parnasse is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 4%.
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 78% vs 22%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Claude
Hooker wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
ChatGPT
Hooker wins 22% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Hooker wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
22%.
ChatGPT
34%.
Gemini
54%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 46%, Parnasse 55%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 27%, Parnasse 74%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 32%, Parnasse 69%.
Claude
Biggest difference: Parnasse by decision, 12% here against 31% on average for the others.
Claude
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (72%).
ChatGPT
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (78%).
Gemini
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (63%).
Claude
On Hooker: Gemini (37%). On Parnasse: ChatGPT (78%).
Claude
Parnasse by decision: from 12% (Claude) to 37% (Gemini).
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by gemini-web-flash.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Parnasse by decision, about 37 in 100
Win chance: Hooker 37%, Parnasse 63%.
Gemini
Parnasse: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Hooker: 37%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse: 78% (about 78 in 100 fights). Hooker: 22%.
Claude
Parnasse: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Hooker: 28%.
Gemini
Parnasse by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).
ChatGPT
Parnasse by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Claude
Parnasse by KO/TKO: 34% (about 34 in 100).
Gemini
1. Parnasse by decision (37%); 2. Parnasse by KO/TKO (18%); 3. Hooker by decision (17%)
ChatGPT
1. Parnasse by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Parnasse by decision (25%); 3. Parnasse by submission (13%)
Claude
1. Parnasse by KO/TKO (34%); 2. Parnasse by submission (26%); 3. Hooker by KO/TKO (13%)
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Parnasse's 63% win chance.
ChatGPT
8 of 10, based on Parnasse's 78% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on Parnasse's 72% win chance.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 46%. Decision: 54%.
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 78%. Decision: 22%.
Gemini
Hooker wins 37%: KO/TKO 16%, submission 4%, decision 17%.
ChatGPT
Hooker wins 22%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 3%, decision 9%.
Claude
Hooker wins 28%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 10%.
Gemini
Parnasse wins 63%: KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%, decision 37%.
ChatGPT
Parnasse wins 78%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 13%, decision 25%.
Claude
Parnasse wins 72%: KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%, decision 12%.
Gemini
Hooker's most likely upset: Hooker by decision (17%).
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Parnasse.
Gemini
Result: Parnasse by KO/TKO in round 1. Parnasse by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Parnasse by decision (37%).
ChatGPT
Result: Parnasse by KO/TKO in round 1. Parnasse by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Claude
Result: Parnasse by KO/TKO in round 1. Parnasse by KO/TKO was the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
KO/TKO 34%, submission 12%, decision 54%.
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 50%, submission 16%, decision 34%.
Claude
KO/TKO 47%, submission 31%, decision 22%.
Gemini
Parnasse: 26%, against 20% for Hooker.
ChatGPT
Parnasse: 53%, against 13% for Hooker.
Claude
Parnasse: 60%, against 18% for Hooker.
Gemini
Hooker: 20% (KO/TKO 16%, submission 4%). Parnasse: 26% (KO/TKO 18%, submission 8%).
ChatGPT
Hooker: 13% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 3%). Parnasse: 53% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 13%).
Claude
Hooker: 18% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%). Parnasse: 60% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 26%).
Gemini
Hooker is knocked out in 18% and submitted in 8%. Parnasse is knocked out in 16% and submitted in 4%.
ChatGPT
Hooker is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 13%. Parnasse is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 3%.
Claude
Hooker is knocked out in 34% and submitted in 26%. Parnasse is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 78% vs 22%.
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
Gemini
Hooker by decision: 17%. Parnasse by decision: 37%.
Gemini
Hooker wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
ChatGPT
Hooker wins 22% (about 1 in 5 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Hooker wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
54%.
ChatGPT
34%.
Claude
22%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 32%, Parnasse 69%.
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 27%, Parnasse 74%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Hooker 46%, Parnasse 55%.
Gemini
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (63%).
ChatGPT
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (78%).
Claude
Of 17 analyst picks, 2 back Hooker and 15 back Parnasse. This model picks Parnasse (72%).
Gemini
On Hooker: Gemini (37%). On Parnasse: ChatGPT (78%).
Gemini
Parnasse by decision: from 12% (Claude) to 37% (Gemini).
Gemini
MMA Husky Hustler (Parnasse by decision) and HopperMMA (Parnasse by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Parnasse, most likely by decision.
Gemini
On 5 Sep 2026, by gemini-web-flash.
ChatGPT
On 5 Sep 2026, by gpt-5.6-sol.
Claude
On 5 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
Gemini
Yes.
gemini-web-flash · 5 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Favoured: Parnasse (81%) Called it
Parnasse defeats Hooker · KO/TKO R1
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.