UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
Islam Makhachev defeats Charles Oliveira by Submission (arm-triangle choke)
Round 2 · 3:16
Makhachev vs Oliveira — Lightweight Title · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
At a glance
Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Makhachev's first-round control limited Oliveira's attempts to create a submission scramble.
A right hand dropped Oliveira in round two and sent the fight to the mat.
Makhachev advanced to the arm-triangle choke, which ended the fight at 3:17 of the second round.
- Official UFC resultsUFC 280: Oliveira vs Makhachev — Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Makhachev
Makhachev's championship route was to survive Oliveira's front-foot submission danger, win the first wrestling exchanges and turn top control into a layered choke attack.
Case for Oliveira
Oliveira needed chaos: long-range pressure into clinches, opportunistic submissions and enough threat from every position to make Makhachev hesitate before settling into control.
What We Were Watching For
- Who won the first serious grappling exchange.
- Whether Oliveira could force Makhachev to defend submissions from top.
- How quickly Makhachev advanced from control to the arm-triangle finish.
Records & career stats
- 2.27 3.23
- 61% 49%
- 1.42 3.05
- 91% 55%
- 67% 84%
- 22-1-0
- Record
- 33-8-1
- 8-0 last 8
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- Russia
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 34
- Age
- 36
- Southpaw
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 07:58
- American Kickboxing Academy · San Jose
- Team
- Chute Boxe Diego Lima · Sao Paulo
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
- Winner Accuracy 76.1% 67 21
- Method Accuracy 51.9% 14 13
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49
- Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23
- Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; TheWeasle Miss; The MMA Guru Miss.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMA Lock of the Night
MMA Lock of the NightView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only). Track record: winner called in 67 of 88 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TheWeasle
TheWeasleView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Oliveira · to win | Makhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| TheWeasle transcript pick: Charles Oliveira (winner only). Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA GuruView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Oliveira · to win | Makhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| The MMA Guru transcript pick: Charles Oliveira (winner only). Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Only 1 of 3 called the upset.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.
No market odds are available for this fight yet.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
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