UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Islam Makhachev defeats Dustin Poirier by Submission (D'Arce choke)
Round 5 · 2:42
Makhachev vs Poirier — Lightweight Title · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
At a glance
Analysts, AI and market side by side. Open a tab for the detail.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Makhachev put Poirier on the canvas quickly in the first and advanced to his back.
Poirier defended takedowns as the fight became more scrappy and competitive through the later rounds.
Makhachev hurt Poirier in the fifth, switched from a guillotine attempt to a D'Arce choke and drew the tap at 2:42.
- Official UFC resultsUFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Makhachev
Makhachev's route was to make Poirier defend every layer: disciplined entries, fence pressure, mat returns and a submission chain that could appear after four hard rounds.
Case for Poirier
Poirier needed to keep the fight in the pocket long enough for his boxing and body work to punish the champion's entries, while refusing to concede the back or front-headlock positions that end most Makhachev fights.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Poirier's low kicks and boxing could slow Makhachev's entries.
- How often Makhachev could convert fence pressure into sustained control.
- Whether Poirier could survive the championship-round submission sequences.
Records & career stats
- 25-1-0
- Record
- 30-8-0
- 8-0 last 8
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Russia
- Nationality
- United States
- 34
- Age
- —
- 1.78 m
- Height
- —
- 179 cm
- Reach
- —
- Southpaw
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 67%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- 5
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- —
- 13
- Wins by submissionSub wins
- —
- 2.27
- Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- 1.42
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- 61%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 91%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
- Winner Accuracy 76.1% 67 21
- Method Accuracy 51.9% 14 13
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 195 101
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 55 49
- Round Accuracy 34.3% 12 23
- Underdog Accuracy 45.5% 15 18
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls
Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; TheWeasle Hit; The MMA Guru Hit.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMA Lock of the Night
MMA Lock of the NightView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Submission (D'Arce choke) R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only). Track record: winner called in 67 of 88 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TheWeasle
TheWeasleView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Submission (D'Arce choke) R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| TheWeasle transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only). Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA GuruView full track record
How each is counted: Winner called Method called Round called Correct underdog calls | Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Submission (D'Arce choke) R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| The MMA Guru transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only). Track record: winner called in 195 of 296 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
3 of 3 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.
No market odds are available for this fight yet.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.