Max Holloway defeats Justin Gaethje by KO
Round 5 · 4:59
Gaethje vs Holloway — BMF Title · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Holloway used his long punches to pick at Gaethje early and landed the better shots through the first 15 minutes.
Gaethje found more success in the fourth, dropping Holloway and landing low kicks.
When the final 10-second signal sounded, Holloway invited Gaethje to trade and landed the right hand at 4:59 of round five.
- Official UFC resultsUFC 300: Pereira vs Hill — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Gaethje
Gaethje's route was the familiar power-and-leg-kick equation. If he could slow Holloway's movement and force pocket trades, the heavier single shots could make Holloway's volume too dangerous to sustain.
Case for Holloway
Holloway's case was pace, range and composure at lightweight. He needed to out-layer Gaethje without standing still for too long, then keep building damage into the later rounds where his durability and output usually separate him.
What We Were Watching For
- Gaethje's leg kicks against Holloway's stance switches and footwork.
- The spinning kick at the end of round one, which breaks Gaethje's nose and changes the physical terms.
- Holloway's final-second decision to trade in the center instead of coasting to a decision.
Records & career stats
- 25-4-0
- Record
- 25-7-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- USA
- Nationality
- USA
- 37
- Age
- 34
- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Orthodox
- 78%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- Source pending
- 21
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- —
- 12:38
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 16:11
- Genesis Training Center
- Team
- Hawaii Elite MMA - Hawaii
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Justin Gaethje
Fight result: Max Holloway · KO
TheWeasle transcript pick: Justin Gaethje (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 115 of 163 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.6% (115 hit, 48 miss, across 163 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.8% (47 hit, 29 miss, across 76 method-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 36.5% (19 hit, 33 miss, across 52 round-scored calls on 163 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 163 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Max Holloway
Fight result: Max Holloway · KO
MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Max Holloway (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 67.5% 85 41
- Method Accuracy 59.5% 25 17
- Round Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Underdog Accuracy 36.8% 7 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Max Holloway
Fight result: Max Holloway · KO
The MMA Guru transcript pick: Max Holloway (winner only).
Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.1% 213 109
- Method Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.4% 18 20
Analyst picks: TheWeasle Miss; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Hit.
2 of 3 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
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