UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres  27 Jun 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku, Azerbaijan, AZ

Asu Almabayev defeats Charles Johnson by Submission

Win Asu Almabayev 24-3-0
Loss Charles Johnson 19-9-0
Submission · Suloev stretch

Round 3 · 3:33

Almabayev vs Johnson — Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The fight was competitive on the feet early, but Almabayev repeatedly moved it into grappling phases.

Johnson had to defend the wrestling instead of settling into his boxing rhythm.

Almabayev secured the Suloev stretch at 3:33 of round three.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Almabayev

Almabayev is the ranked gate-keeper at 125 with a 24-3 record reflecting sustained excellence — 7-1 inside the UFC and a near-complete game. His submission threat from multiple positions and his ability to grind down strikers through wrestling control give him a clear path to a dominant performance against a Johnson who has struggled with grappling-heavy opponents.

Case for Johnson

Johnson's 8-6 UFC record undersells his quality — he's gone the distance with ranked flyweights and carries genuine output and knockout power. His professional experience and striking volume give him a real path to victory if he can dictate the stand-up and avoid takedowns in the early rounds when Almabayev is freshest.

What We Were Watching For

  • Almabayev's wrestling entries — the flyweight division lives and dies on grappling control; if he establishes top position early, Johnson's striking threat diminishes rapidly.
  • Johnson's early striking volume — his best chance is building a lead on the feet in rounds one and two before Almabayev's cardio advantage compounds.
  • Almabayev's submission chains — his grappling is multi-dimensional; a dominant position almost always leads to submission attempts.
  • Round three — Almabayev has been into championship rounds; Johnson has a mixed late-fight record at flyweight.
Records & career stats
Almabayev vs Johnson
23-3-0
Record
19-8-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-3 last 5
Kazakhstan
Nationality
United States
32
Age
35
5′4″163 cm
Height — Johnson leads
5′9″175 cm
65″165 cm
Reach — Johnson leads
70″178 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Johnson leads
8
—
Wins by submissionSub wins
—
2.28
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Johnson leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.60
1.94
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Almabayev leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.93
54%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
56%
44%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Johnson leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
67%
13:03
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:41
Dar Team
Team
Fusion X-Cel

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 22:22 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev · Dec

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

Bedtime picks Almabayev by decision, expecting the grappling and control to carry the minutes while acknowledging Johnson's late chaos threat.

“I'm going to go with Almabayev by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev · Dec

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

FightIQ's public record lists Asu Almabayev as its pick over Charles Johnson.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 20:42 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

MMA Joey picks Almabayev because his chain wrestling and grappling are the clearest repeatable edge against Johnson.

“I'm going to go Asu Almabayev.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 27:59 James Blissett on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev · Dec

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev by decision.

Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).

View full track record (79 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Asu Almabayev · Dec

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

MMA Mania's UFC Baku X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Asu Almabayev by decision.

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 13:45 KennyOkoyeMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Charles Johnson

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

Transcript-verified winner pick from KennyOkoyeMMA UFC Baku full-card prediction.

“I'm going to go Charles Johnson for this one.”

Track record: winner called in 43 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.2% (43 hit, 22 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Charles Johnson

Fight result: Asu Almabayev · Submission

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Charles Johnson.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; FightIQ Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Miss; MMA JOEY Hit; James Blissett Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.

5 of 7 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions

This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

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