Almabayev def. Johnson
Sub · Suloev stretch · Round 3 · 3:33
Almabayev vs Johnson — Flyweight · UFC Baku
What happened
Asu Almabayev stayed a step ahead of Charles Johnson all night, steering the fight toward his grappling and forcing Johnson to react to repeated takedown looks instead of building his volume-striking rhythm. In the third he turned that pressure into a finish, locking up a Suloev stretch at 3:33.
- The fight stayed competitive on the feet early, but Almabayev kept dragging it into the grappling phases he preferred.
- Johnson was made to defend the wrestling repeatedly rather than settle into his boxing, and the Suloev stretch ended it in round three.
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Caller scorecard: Bedtime MMA called it; DFS By The Numbers called it; MMA JOEY called it.
3 of 3 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: predicted Almabayev · Decision. Actual Almabayev · Sub R3. Result: Hit.
Bedtime picks Almabayev by decision, expecting the grappling and control to carry the minutes while acknowledging Johnson's late chaos threat.
Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.
DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Almabayev · Decision. Actual Almabayev · Sub R3. Result: Hit.
DFS is tired of trying to solve Johnson fights and backs Almabayev's wrestling to expose Johnson's grappling hole over three rounds.
Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.
MMA JOEY Analyst called 13 of 16 MMA JOEY: predicted Almabayev · to win. Actual Almabayev · Sub R3. Result: Hit.
MMA Joey picks Almabayev because his chain wrestling and grappling are the clearest repeatable edge against Johnson.
Track record: winner called in 13 of 16 resolved picks, 2 a perfect call.
Archive
Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.
Tale of the Tape
Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
- 2.28 4.54
- 54% 55%
- 1.94 3.88
- 44% 67%
- 58% 58%
- 24-3-0
- Record
- 19-9-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2-3 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 13:03
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:45
- Kazakhstan
- Nationality
- United States
- Dar Team
- Team
- Fusion X-Cel
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Almabayev
Almabayev is the ranked gate-keeper at 125 with a 24-3 record reflecting sustained excellence — 7-1 inside the UFC and a near-complete game. His submission threat from multiple positions and his ability to grind down strikers through wrestling control give him a clear path to a dominant performance against a Johnson who has struggled with grappling-heavy opponents.
Case for Johnson
Johnson's 8-6 UFC record undersells his quality — he's gone the distance with ranked flyweights and carries genuine output and knockout power. His professional experience and striking volume give him a real path to victory if he can dictate the stand-up and avoid takedowns in the early rounds when Almabayev is freshest.
What We Were Watching For
- Almabayev's wrestling entries — the flyweight division lives and dies on grappling control; if he establishes top position early, Johnson's striking threat diminishes rapidly.
- Johnson's early striking volume — his best chance is building a lead on the feet in rounds one and two before Almabayev's cardio advantage compounds.
- Almabayev's submission chains — his grappling is multi-dimensional; a dominant position almost always leads to submission attempts.
- Round three — Almabayev has been into championship rounds; Johnson has a mixed late-fight record at flyweight.
Fighters
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