UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Rafael Fiziev defeats Manuel Torres by KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:15
Fiziev vs Torres — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
The opening round was competitive, with Fiziev mixing takedowns and counters while Torres pressed forward.
Fiziev spun through a wheel kick 15 seconds into round two and dropped Torres.
He followed with ground strikes as Torres tried to rise, forcing the stoppage.
- Official UFC main-card resultsUFC · UFC Baku main-card results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Fiziev
Fiziev is the counter-striking genius fighting on home soil in Baku, and his spinning technique library — wheel kicks, back kicks, spinning heel kicks — is uniquely suited to punish Torres's aggressive, forward-pressure style. Despite a rough 1-4 run, Fiziev's technical ceiling is undeniable, and against a fighter who attacks on a straight line, his defensive IQ and timing are decisive weapons.
Case for Torres
Torres is the most dangerous first-round finisher in the division — five UFC wins, all by first-round knockout, with 16 of 17 career wins by stoppage. At 6'0" with a 73" reach, he carries size advantages and a genuine 66% model win probability. If he can get inside Fiziev's range before the crowd-fuelled counter-striker finds his rhythm, the finish could come before any home-crowd factor kicks in.
What We Were Watching For
- The opening two minutes — Torres's entire gameplan is destroying opponents early; every extra minute Fiziev stays upright is time for his timing to develop and for the home crowd to lift him.
- Fiziev's spinning techniques — his wheel kicks and back kicks have ended UFC fights, and Torres's straight-line aggression creates the exact angles Fiziev has always exploited.
- Fiziev's composure — 1-4 in his last five going in, fighting in front of a home crowd that expects a win; can he suppress that pressure and execute a disciplined gameplan?
- Torres's ground game — virtually untested in MMA; if Fiziev clinches to slow Torres's pace, can Torres respond with anything other than striking?
Records & career stats
- 13-5-0
- Record
- 17-3-0
- 2-3 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Azerbaijan
- Nationality
- Mexico
- 33
- Age
- 31
- Switch
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Switch
- Source pending
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 94%
- —
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- 9
- 11:32
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 02:50
- Tiger Muay Thai - Phuket, Thailand
- Team
- Aldama's Muay Thai Gym · Tijuana
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rafael Fiziev
Fight result: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
Transcript-verified winner pick from KennyOkoyeMMA UFC Baku full-card prediction.
“So I'm going to go Rafael Fiziev for the win. I think he's going to beat Manuel Torres.”
Track record: winner called in 43 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.2% (43 hit, 22 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.2% 43 22
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
MMA Joey goes against the Torres momentum and picks Fiziev by second-round TKO, trusting his technical striking, counters and late-fight edge if he survives the early onslaught.
“I'm going to go Fiziev.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
Fight result: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
Lucrative James picks Rafael Fiziev by knockout in the UFC Baku main event.
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
Fight result: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
MMA Mania's UFC Baku preview has Jesse Holland picking Rafael Fiziev by technical knockout.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 49.1% (27 hit, 28 miss, across 55 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 method-scored calls on 55 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 27.8% (5 hit, 13 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 55 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Manuel Torres · KO/TKO
Fight result: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
Bedtime takes Torres by knockout, arguing his size, reach, forward boxing and finishing instinct can break through Fiziev's kicking range before the later rounds.
“I'm going to go with Manel Torres to win this one.”
Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 132 53
- Method Accuracy 61.9% 60 37
- Round Accuracy 40.7% 11 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.7% 19 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: Manuel Torres · KO/TKO
Fight result: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Manuel Torres as its pick over Rafael Fiziev.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Manuel Torres · KO/TKO
Fight result: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
DFS picks Torres, reading the career trajectories in opposite directions and expecting Torres to land the bigger shot while Fiziev is still vulnerable from recent damage.
“I'm going to go Torres.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Manuel Torres
Fight result: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Manuel Torres.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; FightIQ Miss; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Miss; MMA JOEY Hit; James Blissett Hit; Jesse Holland Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
4 of 8 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
AI Predictions
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