UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Shara Magomedov defeats Michel Pereira by unanimous decision
Round 3
Magomedov vs Pereira — Middleweight · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Pereira made the early fight messy and scored a knockdown that Magomedov survived.
As the contest continued, it settled into low-output, long-range kicking.
Magomedov adjusted better to that slower pace and took the decision.
- Official UFC main-card resultsUFC · UFC Baku main-card results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Magomedov
Magomedov is the -395 favourite for a reason. His unorthodox, high-volume striking has consistently out-worked opponents, and Pereira — despite flash moments — has been out-struck in four consecutive UFC outings. Magomedov's wrestling base also gives him a grappling answer if Pereira tries to turn this into a chaos bout, and his 16-1 record reflects a fighter who only lost to Michael 'Venom' Page in his last 17.
Case for Pereira
Pereira's entire argument is his finishing danger in brief windows. The 'Demolidor' has genuine Muay Thai power and acrobatic flair that has floored top-15 opponents, and against a Magomedov who absorbed a clear decision loss to Page, there may be a technical gap Pereira can exploit in the early rounds before his gas tank empties.
What We Were Watching For
- Pereira's cardio after round one — he historically front-loads his efforts and fades badly in middleweight-length fights; does he have anything left if he doesn't finish early?
- Magomedov's output volume — can he sustain his typically elite striking pace over three full rounds and smother Pereira's highlight moments with sheer workrate?
- The knockdown threat from Pereira — he has scored spectacular knockdowns on quality opponents; if he catches Magomedov clean, the math changes instantly.
- Magomedov's rebound mentality — coming off the Page loss, does he fight conservatively to secure a safe win or bring the same aggressive output that makes him dangerous?
Records & career stats
- 5.55 4.28
- 45% 51%
- 3.62 4.32
- 73% 76%
- 71% 72%
- 16-1-0
- Record
- 32-14-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1-4 last 5
- Russia
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 32
- Age
- 32
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 13:54
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 10:59
- GOR MMA
- Team
- Xtreme Couture / Overcome Academy
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Shara Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Shara Magomedov · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Shara Magomedov as its pick over Michel Pereira.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Shara Magomedov
Fight result: Shara Magomedov · Decision
Transcript-verified winner pick from KennyOkoyeMMA UFC Baku full-card prediction.
“I'm going to go Shara Bullet for the win.”
Track record: winner called in 43 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 66.2% (43 hit, 22 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 66.2% 43 22
- Method Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Shara Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Shara Magomedov · Decision
DFS takes Shara by decision in his lowest-confidence pick, mostly fading Pereira's current cardio, urgency and recent form.
“but give me Sha Magame by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Shara Magomedov · KO/TKO · Round 3
Fight result: Shara Magomedov · Decision
MMA Joey picks Shara by third-round TKO, expecting Pereira to fade badly and get stopped after the early explosiveness is gone.
“I'll say third round TKO for Shirabulat Magomedov.”
Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.4% 78 47
- Method Accuracy 46.6% 27 31
- Round Accuracy 28.1% 9 23
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 7 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Shara Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Shara Magomedov · Decision
Lucrative James picks Shara Magomedov by decision; a later third-round finish is speculative, so the recorded method remains decision.
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Current pick evidence
Picked: Shara Magomedov · KO/TKO
Fight result: Shara Magomedov · Decision
MMA Mania's UFC Baku X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Shara Magomedov by knockout.
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 73.0% 27 10
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 10.0% 1 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Shara Magomedov · Dec
Fight result: Shara Magomedov · Decision
MMA Mania's UFC Baku preview has Jesse Holland picking Shara Magomedov by unanimous decision.
Track record: winner called in 27 of 55 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 49.1% (27 hit, 28 miss, across 55 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 method-scored calls on 55 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 27.8% (5 hit, 13 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 55 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Michel Pereira
Fight result: Shara Magomedov · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Michel Pereira.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: FightIQ Hit; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; James Blissett Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit; Jesse Holland Hit; FIGHT//AI Miss.
7 of 8 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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