Final · 27 Jun 2026

Magomedov def. Pereira

Dec · Round 3

Magomedov vs Pereira — Middleweight · UFC Baku

Magomedov (16-1-0) vs Pereira (32-14-0)

Middleweight
3 rounds
Co-Main Event
UFC Baku • 27 Jun 2026
Baku, Azerbaijan

What happened

Shara Magomedov left Baku with a hard-earned decision, surviving a knockdown and Michel Pereira's biggest moments in a chaotic, taekwondo-style striking match. As the co-main cooled into long-range kicking, Magomedov adjusted better to the slower pace and banked enough of the fifteen minutes to swing the cards his way.

Judges' scorecards
  • 29–28
  • 29–28
  • 29–28

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Result
Magomedov def. Pereira
Dec R3
Consensus

Caller scorecard: Bedtime MMA perfect call; DFS By The Numbers perfect call; MMA JOEY called it.

3 of 3 nailed it · 2 nailed the finish ★.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Full analyst picks ↓
Bedtime MMA Analyst called 36 of 58 Bedtime MMA: predicted Magomedov · Decision. Actual Magomedov · Dec R3. Result: Perfect call.

Bedtime picks Shara Magomedov by decision, expecting constant movement, kicks and output to drain Pereira after an early danger window.

Hear it — 27:20 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗ Bedtime MMA’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 36 of 58 resolved picks, 18 a perfect call.

DFS By The Numbers Betting deskAnalyst called 32 of 47 DFS By The Numbers: predicted Magomedov · Decision. Actual Magomedov · Dec R3. Result: Perfect call.

DFS takes Shara by decision in his lowest-confidence pick, mostly fading Pereira's current cardio, urgency and recent form.

Hear it — 27:53 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗ DFS By The Numbers’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 32 of 47 resolved picks, 13 a perfect call.

MMA JOEY Analyst called 13 of 16 MMA JOEY: predicted Magomedov · KO/TKO · R3. Actual Magomedov · Dec R3. Result: Hit.

MMA Joey picks Shara by third-round TKO, expecting Pereira to fade badly and get stopped after the early explosiveness is gone.

Hear it — 27:54 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗ MMA JOEY’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 13 of 16 resolved picks, 2 a perfect call.

Archive

Pre-fight material — kept for transparency, folded by default.

Tale of the Tape

Records & career stats — as they entered fight night
Magomedov vs Pereira
Magomedov Pereira
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.55 4.28
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 45% 51%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.62 4.32
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 73% 76%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 71% 72%
16-1-0
Record
32-14-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
1-4 last 5
32
Age
32
1.88 m
Height — Magomedov leads
1.85 m
185 cm
Reach
185 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
71%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
72%
12
Wins by KO/TKOKO/TKO wins — Magomedov leads
11
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Pereira leads
9
5.55
Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / min — Magomedov leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.28
3.62
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / min — Magomedov leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.32
45%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Pereira leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
51%
73%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Pereira leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
76%
13:54
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
10:59
Russia
Nationality
Brazil
GOR MMA
Team
Xtreme Couture / Overcome Academy

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Magomedov

Magomedov is the -395 favourite for a reason. His unorthodox, high-volume striking has consistently out-worked opponents, and Pereira — despite flash moments — has been out-struck in four consecutive UFC outings. Magomedov's wrestling base also gives him a grappling answer if Pereira tries to turn this into a chaos bout, and his 16-1 record reflects a fighter who only lost to Michael 'Venom' Page in his last 17.

Case for Pereira

Pereira's entire argument is his finishing danger in brief windows. The 'Demolidor' has genuine Muay Thai power and acrobatic flair that has floored top-15 opponents, and against a Magomedov who absorbed a clear decision loss to Page, there may be a technical gap Pereira can exploit in the early rounds before his gas tank empties.

What We Were Watching For

  • Pereira's cardio after round one — he historically front-loads his efforts and fades badly in middleweight-length fights; does he have anything left if he doesn't finish early?
  • Magomedov's output volume — can he sustain his typically elite striking pace over three full rounds and smother Pereira's highlight moments with sheer workrate?
  • The knockdown threat from Pereira — he has scored spectacular knockdowns on quality opponents; if he catches Magomedov clean, the math changes instantly.
  • Magomedov's rebound mentality — coming off the Page loss, does he fight conservatively to secure a safe win or bring the same aggressive output that makes him dangerous?

Fighters

Shara Magomedov
16-1-0 · Middleweight · Bullet
View profile →
Michel Pereira
32-14-0 · Middleweight · Demolidor
View profile →

Reader thread

Reader takes

Public fan takes, kept separate from FightCardIQ analysis and held to moderation.

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Privacy · Terms.