UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres  27 Jun 2026 · National Gymnastics Arena, Baku, Azerbaijan, AZ

Abus Magomedov defeats Michal Oleksiejczuk by Submission

Win Abus Magomedov 29-7-1
Loss Michal Oleksiejczuk 17-9-0
Submission · guillotine choke

Round 1 · 3:25

Magomedov vs Oleksiejczuk — Middleweight · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Magomedov hurt Oleksiejczuk on the feet and scored a knockdown.

The knockdown created the opening to attack on the mat.

Magomedov locked the guillotine and forced the tap at 3:25 of round one.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Magomedov

Abusupiyan Magomedov carries a 28-7-1 record built across elite global competition, and his submission grappling — combined with a physical striking game — gives him a multi-threat profile that has troubled opponents at every level. His 4-3 UFC record masks a fighter capable of competing with anyone in the top 15, and a win here with the post-fight Adesanya callout would firmly establish his middleweight ambitions.

Case for Oleksiejczuk

Oleksiejczuk enters on the best form of his UFC career — a three-fight win streak showing that the Polish veteran has found a second wind late in his run. His resilient chin and willingness to engage in striking exchanges have kept him competitive against better-credentialed opponents, and against a Magomedov whose UFC consistency has been mixed, a surging Oleksiejczuk is a genuine danger.

What We Were Watching For

  • Oleksiejczuk's striking distance management versus Magomedov's grappling setups — how quickly does Magomedov attempt his first takedown?
  • Oleksiejczuk's submission defence — his grappling has been tested in the UFC; can he survive if Magomedov establishes top control?
  • Whether Magomedov's 4-3 UFC record reflects a quality plateau or a fighter who simply needs the right opponent.
  • The post-fight story — Magomedov has called out Adesanya; does a statement win here change how the division views him?
Records & career stats
Magomedov vs Oleksiejczuk
Germany
Nationality
Poland
35
Age
31
6′2″188 cm
Height — Magomedov leads
6′0″183 cm
78″198 cm
Reach — Magomedov leads
74″188 cm
Source pending
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
3.06
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Oleksiejczuk leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.73
3.34
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Magomedov leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.45
56%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Oleksiejczuk leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
60%
100%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Magomedov leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
53%
09:46
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
06:23

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 10:15 KennyOkoyeMMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abus Magomedov

Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission

Transcript-verified winner pick from KennyOkoyeMMA UFC Baku full-card prediction.

“So give me Abus Magomedov for the win in a fight against a pretty decent finisher.”

Track record: winner called in 43 of 65 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.2% (43 hit, 22 miss, across 65 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 method-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 65 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 63.6% (7 hit, 4 miss, across 11 underdog calls on 65 resolved calls).

View full track record (65 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 18:36 DFS By The Numbers on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abus Magomedov · Sub

Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission

DFS ultimately picks Abus by submission, seeing his wrestling and grappling as the clearest route even though Oleksiejczuk's pressure makes the under interesting.

“I'm going to pick Abus Magda by submission.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 16:14 MMA JOEY on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Abus Magomedov · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission

MMA Joey takes Abus by early second-round TKO, expecting his speed, power and front-loaded offense to beat Oleksiejczuk before the cardio danger fully arrives.

“I'm going to go Abu Magomedov. I'll say early second round TKO.”

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 18:10 Bedtime MMA on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission

Bedtime fades Magomedov's durability and cardio, expecting Oleksiejczuk's pressure to take over late and produce a second-round TKO.

“I'm going to go with Oleksiejczuk by round two or three TKO.”

Track record: winner called in 132 of 185 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (132 hit, 53 miss, across 185 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.9% (60 hit, 37 miss, across 97 method-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 40.7% (11 hit, 16 miss, across 27 round-scored calls on 185 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 48.7% (19 hit, 20 miss, across 39 underdog calls on 185 resolved calls).

View full track record (185 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Michal Oleksiejczuk · Dec

Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission

FightIQ's public record lists Michal Oleksiejczuk as its pick over Abus Magomedov.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO

Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission

MMA Mania's UFC Baku X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Michal Oleksiejczuk by knockout.

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 73.0% (27 hit, 10 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 10.0% (1 hit, 9 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Michal Oleksiejczuk

Fight result: Abus Magomedov · Submission

FIGHT//AI’s replay record preserves its original live winner selection: Michal Oleksiejczuk.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Miss; FightIQ Miss; KennyOkoyeMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; Andrew Richardson Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss.

3 of 7 called the winner.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions

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Market Odds

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