UFC Fight Night  26 Sep 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Raul Rosas Jr. defeats Raoni Barcelos by KO/TKO

Win Raul Rosas Jr. 14-1-0
Loss Raoni Barcelos 22-6-0
Watch the fight
KO/TKO · slam

Round 5 · 1:38

Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Barcelos used takedowns and clinch control to make the main event competitive through the middle rounds.

Rosas Jr. stayed attached through the late wrestling exchanges and found the decisive opening in the fifth round.

Rosas Jr. finished the fight with a slam at 1:38 of round five for the official knockout win.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Rosas Jr.

Rosas Jr. is on a twelve-fight win streak since his only professional loss, and his last outing was a unanimous decision over Rob Font built on sixteen landed takedowns. His route in his first UFC Fight Night headliner is to repeat that wrestling-heavy formula, but his own 25% takedown defense cuts both ways against a fighter who has stopped 88% of takedowns attempted against him.

Case for Barcelos

Barcelos, a 39-year-old veteran with 22 professional wins, is riding his own five-fight win streak that includes handing Payton Talbott the first loss of his career in January 2025, and his tape shows 88% takedown defense. His route is to keep the fight standing, where he out-lands opponents at a 4.65-to-4.24 significant-strike differential, and make Rosas Jr. fight from range instead of on the mat.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Rosas Jr.'s takedown-heavy formula — sixteen landed against Rob Font in his last fight — works against Barcelos's 88% takedown defense.
  • Whether Barcelos can be kept off his feet, given Rosas Jr.'s own takedown defense sits at just 25%.
  • Whether a 39-year-old Barcelos can sustain five rounds against a 21-year-old opponent in his first UFC main event.
  • Whether Rosas Jr.'s twelve-fight win streak or Barcelos's five-fight streak — which includes handing Payton Talbott his first career loss — survives the night.
Records & career stats
13-1-0
Record
22-5-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
Brazil
21
Age
39
5′9″175 cm
Height — Rosas Jr. leads
5′7″171 cm
67″170 cm
Reach
67″170 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
50%
—
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
8
7
Wins by submissionSub wins — Rosas Jr. leads
3
1.34
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Barcelos leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.65
1.24
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Rosas Jr. leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.24
53%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Barcelos leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
61%
25%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Barcelos leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
88%
10:45
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
13:09
Rosas Brothers MMA
Team
Top Brother

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Show Me The Money

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr.

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Picks Raul Rosas Jr.

“I start to lean perhaps Rosas's way”

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 100.0% (4 hit, 0 miss, across 4 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 4 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (4 calls)
FightIQ

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Dec

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

FightIQ's public record lists Raul Rosas Jr. as its pick over Raoni Barcelos.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
JakeGerberMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr.

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Leans Raul Rosas Jr. because of his youth, athleticism, and speed, expecting striking to set up his grappling rather than a hard grappling pace from the start.

* This is explicitly described as an early lean; JakeGerberMMA says Barcelos could take over if Rosas slows down.

Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).

View full track record (154 calls)
Drake Burden

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr.

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Drake Burden picks Raul Rosas Jr.

Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).

View full track record (98 calls)
Michael Iannone

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Sub

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Written pick by Michael Iannone in the cited pre-event article.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.5% (15 hit, 9 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).

View full track record (24 calls)
Adam Martin

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr.

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Adam Martin gives Raul Rosas Jr. the edge over Raoni Barcelos, citing Rosas Jr.'s 17-year age advantage.

“the fact that Rosas is 17 years younger should give him the edge he needs to win the biggest fight of his career.”

Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).

View full track record (40 calls)
Chris Schweppe

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Written pick by Chris Schweppe.

Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).

View full track record (99 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Dec

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Greedo Plays MMA picks Raul Rosas Jr. by decision over Raoni Barcelos.

“I'm going to go Rosas to win this fight by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).

View full track record (72 calls)
Guy Bruhn

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr.

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Guy Bruhn picks Raul Rosas Jr.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 47.6% (10 hit, 11 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).

View full track record (21 calls)
The Sports Scientist

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

The Sports Scientist picks Raul Rosas Jr. by a late KO/TKO.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 22 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 45.5% (10 hit, 12 miss, across 22 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 83.3% (5 hit, 1 miss, across 6 method-scored calls on 22 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 22 resolved calls).

View full track record (22 calls)
Timothy Wheaton

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Sub

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Timothy Wheaton picks Raul Rosas Jr. by submission, with the article identifying the second or third round as the natural window without making a single round call.

Track record: winner called in 4 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 44.4% (4 hit, 5 miss, across 9 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 33.3% (1 hit, 2 miss, across 3 method-scored calls on 9 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (9 calls)
Chris Cross

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Dec

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Chris Cross leans Raul Rosas Jr. in a close fight, citing his development and expecting him to win a three-rounds-to-two decision over Raoni Barcelos.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 40.0% (8 hit, 12 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).

View full track record (20 calls)
DFS By The Numbers

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision.

“I'm going to go Barcelos to win this fight by decision, pulling off the upset there.”

Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).

View full track record (173 calls)
We Want Picks

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Angelo picks canonical Raoni Barcelos; Hani/Barcelos are the transcript's name rendering for the official main-event fighter.

“Hani Barcelos is the pick, guys. That's the breakdown.”

Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).

View full track record (145 calls)
MMA JOEY

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

MMA Joey's early lean is Barcelos over Rosas Jr.

Track record: winner called in 78 of 125 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 62.4% (78 hit, 47 miss, across 125 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.6% (27 hit, 31 miss, across 58 method-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 28.1% (9 hit, 23 miss, across 32 round-scored calls on 125 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (7 hit, 14 miss, across 21 underdog calls on 125 resolved calls).

View full track record (125 calls)
James Blissett

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision.

“My prediction will be Haney Barcelos to win this fight via decision.”

Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).

View full track record (79 calls)
Danny Howard

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Written pick by Danny Howard in the cited pre-event article.

Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 12 resolved calls).

View full track record (12 calls)
Artem MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision in the main event.

“Barcelos is going to win this fight. Win this fight by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).

View full track record (95 calls)
Jon Litterine

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Jon Litterine picks Raoni Barcelos.

Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).

View full track record (124 calls)
BetSam

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

BetSam picks Raoni Barcelos to win, citing his stronger body of work and experience while acknowledging Raul Rosas Jr.'s grappling threat.

Track record: winner called in 22 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.4% (22 hit, 17 miss, across 39 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (2 hit, 2 miss, across 4 round-scored calls on 39 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 39 resolved calls).

View full track record (39 calls)
Fight Productions

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Sub · Round 4

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Fight Productions picks Raoni Barcelos by fourth-round submission over Raul Rosas Jr.

“Barcelos round four sub is the pick.”

Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).

View full track record (66 calls)
Shakiel Mahjouri

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Shakiel Mahjouri picks Raoni Barcelos by split decision.

Track record: winner called in 25 of 46 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 54.3% (25 hit, 21 miss, across 46 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (10 hit, 10 miss, across 20 method-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 9 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 46 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 46 resolved calls).

View full track record (46 calls)
Cole Shelton

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Cole Shelton picks Raoni Barcelos.

Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).

View full track record (116 calls)
TonyHasDiedMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Picks Raoni Barcelos.

“So honestly, I'm going to pick Ronnie Barcelos here as the underdog.”

Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).

View full track record (53 calls)
MikesMMAPicks

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.

Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).

View full track record (48 calls)
The MMA Yuda

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Picks Raoni Barcelos in the main event.

“I'm picking Ryan Barcelos.”

Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).

View full track record (58 calls)
Nick Kalikas

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.

Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).

View full track record (48 calls)
Uselyis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Experience and IQ advantage over Rosas Jr; resisting trap despite 62% public consensus.

“I'm going to go with Barcelos. I think the IQ and the experience is going to be too much.”

Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).

View full track record (54 calls)
Brandon K

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Brandon K picks Raoni Barcelos by decision over Raul Rosas Jr.

Track record: winner called in 20 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 44.4% (20 hit, 25 miss, across 45 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 42.9% (6 hit, 8 miss, across 14 method-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 5 miss, across 5 round-scored calls on 45 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (3 hit, 9 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 45 resolved calls).

View full track record (45 calls)
Chris White

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.

Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).

View full track record (48 calls)
Rparqs

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

Picks Raoni Barcelos.

“But give me Rayoni Barcel to win this fight by decision. I know I have knockout but I'm going to take him by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).

View full track record (24 calls)
FIGHT//AI

Current pick evidence

Picked: Raoni Barcelos

Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO

FIGHT//AI’s selected value bet names Raoni Barcelos.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)

Analyst picks: Show Me The Money Hit; FightIQ Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Drake Burden Hit; Michael Iannone Hit; MMA JOEY Miss; James Blissett Miss; Danny Howard Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Adam Martin Hit; Jon Litterine Miss; BetSam Miss; Fight Productions Miss; Shakiel Mahjouri Miss; Chris Schweppe Hit; Cole Shelton Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; MikesMMAPicks Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Nick Kalikas Miss; Guy Bruhn Hit; Uselyis Miss; The Sports Scientist Hit; Brandon K Miss; Timothy Wheaton Hit; Chris Cross Hit; Chris White Miss; Rparqs Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss.

12 of 32 called the winner.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO · R5

Closest probability Gemini put 65% on Rosas Jr.

ChatGPTForecast: 63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
56% Rosas Jr.
44% Barcelos
PickRosas Jr. · DecisionActualRosas Jr. · KO/TKO · R5
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
ClaudeForecast: 61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
58% Rosas Jr.
42% Barcelos
PickRosas Jr. · DecisionActualRosas Jr. · KO/TKO · R5
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
GeminiForecast: 68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
65% Rosas Jr.
35% Barcelos
PickRosas Jr. · DecisionActualRosas Jr. · KO/TKO · R5
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — latest pre-fight callsFrozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.

AI Predictions

Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.

  • ChatGPT

    63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Rosas Jr.

    Most likely: Rosas Jr. by decision, about 37 in 100

    Win chance: Rosas Jr. 56%, Barcelos 44%.

    gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Claude

    61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

    Pick Rosas Jr.

    Most likely: Rosas Jr. by decision, about 35 in 100

    Win chance: Rosas Jr. 58%, Barcelos 42%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep

    Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

  • Gemini

    68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

    Pick Rosas Jr.

    Most likely: Rosas Jr. by decision, about 45 in 100

    Win chance: Rosas Jr. 65%, Barcelos 35%.

    Version not reported · 26 Sep

    Confidence 7 of 10 · High

3 of 3 models pick Rosas Jr.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr.: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 44%.

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 42%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
  • ChatGPT

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (37%); 2. Barcelos by decision (25%); 3. Barcelos by KO/TKO (13%)

  • Claude

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (35%); 2. Barcelos by decision (25%); 3. Rosas Jr. by submission (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (45%); 2. Barcelos by decision (21%); 3. Rosas Jr. by submission (12%)

How confident is the model?
  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 56% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 58% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?
  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 40%. Decision: 60%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.

How does Rosas Jr. win?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. wins 56%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 12%, decision 37%.

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. wins 58%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 15%, decision 35%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. wins 65%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 12%, decision 45%.

How does Barcelos win?
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos wins 44%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%, decision 25%.

  • Claude

    Barcelos wins 42%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 25%.

  • Gemini

    Barcelos wins 35%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%, decision 21%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos's most likely upset: Barcelos by decision (25%).

  • Claude

    Barcelos's most likely upset: Barcelos by decision (25%).

  • Gemini

    Barcelos's most likely upset: Barcelos by decision (21%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?
  • All models

    The models agree: all 3 pick Rosas Jr.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?
  • ChatGPT

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (37%).

  • Claude

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (35%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (45%).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 20%, submission 18%, decision 62%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 22%, decision 60%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 16%, decision 66%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?
  • ChatGPT

    Even: each finishes the other 19% of the time.

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 23%, against 17% for Barcelos.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 20%, against 14% for Barcelos.

Can Rosas Jr. get the finish? Can Barcelos?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr.: 19% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 12%). Barcelos: 19% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%).

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 23% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 15%). Barcelos: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 20% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 12%). Barcelos: 14% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 6%. Barcelos is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 12%.

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Barcelos is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 15%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 4%. Barcelos is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 12%.

How lopsided is this fight?
  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 37%. Barcelos by decision: 25%.

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 35%. Barcelos by decision: 25%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 45%. Barcelos by decision: 21%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Barcelos wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Barcelos wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision
  • ChatGPT

    62%.

  • Claude

    60%.

  • Gemini

    66%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?
  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 60%, Barcelos 40%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 58%, Barcelos 42%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 68%, Barcelos 32%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?
  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 37% here against 40% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 35% here against 41% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 45% here against 36% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?
  • ChatGPT

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (56%).

  • Claude

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (58%).

  • Gemini

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (65%).

Which model is most confident on Rosas Jr., and which on Barcelos?
  • All models

    On Rosas Jr.: Gemini (65%). On Barcelos: ChatGPT (44%).

Where do the models disagree most?
  • All models

    Rosas Jr. by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 45% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?
  • All models

    Chris Cross (Rosas Jr. by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Rosas Jr. by decision) and FightIQ (Rosas Jr. by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Rosas Jr., most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
  • ChatGPT

    On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?
  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?
  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
  • All models

    No.

ChatGPT

Pick

Rosas Jr.

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Rosas Jr. by decision, about 37 in 100

Win chance: Rosas Jr. 56%, Barcelos 44%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Rosas Jr. by decision37%
  2. Barcelos by decision25%
  3. Barcelos by KO/TKO13%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Rosas Jr. 7%, Barcelos 13%.
  2. Submission: Rosas Jr. 12%, Barcelos 6%.
  3. Decision: Rosas Jr. 37%, Barcelos 25%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr.: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 44%.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 42%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
  • ChatGPT

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (37%); 2. Barcelos by decision (25%); 3. Barcelos by KO/TKO (13%)

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (35%); 2. Barcelos by decision (25%); 3. Rosas Jr. by submission (15%)

  • Gemini

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (45%); 2. Barcelos by decision (21%); 3. Rosas Jr. by submission (12%)

How confident is the model?
  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 56% win chance.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 58% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?
  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 40%. Decision: 60%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.

How does Rosas Jr. win?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. wins 56%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 12%, decision 37%.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. wins 58%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 15%, decision 35%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. wins 65%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 12%, decision 45%.

How does Barcelos win?
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos wins 44%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%, decision 25%.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Barcelos wins 42%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 25%.

  • Gemini

    Barcelos wins 35%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%, decision 21%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos's most likely upset: Barcelos by decision (25%).

Other models' answers
  • Gemini

    Barcelos's most likely upset: Barcelos by decision (21%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?
  • ChatGPT

    The models agree: all 3 pick Rosas Jr.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?
  • ChatGPT

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (37%).

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (35%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (45%).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 20%, submission 18%, decision 62%.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 22%, decision 60%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 16%, decision 66%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?
  • ChatGPT

    Even: each finishes the other 19% of the time.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 23%, against 17% for Barcelos.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 20%, against 14% for Barcelos.

Can Rosas Jr. get the finish? Can Barcelos?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr.: 19% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 12%). Barcelos: 19% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%).

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 23% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 15%). Barcelos: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 20% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 12%). Barcelos: 14% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 6%. Barcelos is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 12%.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Barcelos is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 15%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 4%. Barcelos is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 12%.

How lopsided is this fight?
  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 37%. Barcelos by decision: 25%.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 35%. Barcelos by decision: 25%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 45%. Barcelos by decision: 21%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Barcelos wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Barcelos wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision
  • ChatGPT

    62%.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    60%.

  • Gemini

    66%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?
  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 60%, Barcelos 40%.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 58%, Barcelos 42%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 68%, Barcelos 32%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?
  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 37% here against 40% on average for the others.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 35% here against 41% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 45% here against 36% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?
  • ChatGPT

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (56%).

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (58%).

  • Gemini

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (65%).

Which model is most confident on Rosas Jr., and which on Barcelos?
  • ChatGPT

    On Rosas Jr.: Gemini (65%). On Barcelos: ChatGPT (44%).

Where do the models disagree most?
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 45% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?
  • ChatGPT

    Chris Cross (Rosas Jr. by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Rosas Jr. by decision) and FightIQ (Rosas Jr. by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Rosas Jr., most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
  • ChatGPT

    On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

Other models' answers
  • Claude

    On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

  • Gemini

    On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?
  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?
  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
  • ChatGPT

    No.

gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Rosas Jr.

Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium

Most likely: Rosas Jr. by decision, about 35 in 100

Win chance: Rosas Jr. 58%, Barcelos 42%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Rosas Jr. by decision35%
  2. Barcelos by decision25%
  3. Rosas Jr. by submission15%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Rosas Jr. 8%, Barcelos 10%.
  2. Submission: Rosas Jr. 15%, Barcelos 7%.
  3. Decision: Rosas Jr. 35%, Barcelos 25%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 42%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr.: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 44%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 35%.

What is the single most likely outcome?
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
  • Claude

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (35%); 2. Barcelos by decision (25%); 3. Rosas Jr. by submission (15%)

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (37%); 2. Barcelos by decision (25%); 3. Barcelos by KO/TKO (13%)

  • Gemini

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (45%); 2. Barcelos by decision (21%); 3. Rosas Jr. by submission (12%)

How confident is the model?
  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 58% win chance.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 56% win chance.

  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 65% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?
  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 40%. Decision: 60%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.

  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.

How does Rosas Jr. win?
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. wins 58%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 15%, decision 35%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. wins 56%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 12%, decision 37%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. wins 65%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 12%, decision 45%.

How does Barcelos win?
  • Claude

    Barcelos wins 42%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 25%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos wins 44%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%, decision 25%.

  • Gemini

    Barcelos wins 35%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%, decision 21%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?
  • Claude

    Barcelos's most likely upset: Barcelos by decision (25%).

Other models' answers
  • Gemini

    Barcelos's most likely upset: Barcelos by decision (21%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?
  • Claude

    The models agree: all 3 pick Rosas Jr.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?
  • Claude

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (35%).

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (37%).

  • Gemini

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (45%).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
  • Claude

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 22%, decision 60%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 20%, submission 18%, decision 62%.

  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 16%, decision 66%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 23%, against 17% for Barcelos.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Even: each finishes the other 19% of the time.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 20%, against 14% for Barcelos.

Can Rosas Jr. get the finish? Can Barcelos?
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 23% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 15%). Barcelos: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr.: 19% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 12%). Barcelos: 19% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%).

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 20% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 12%). Barcelos: 14% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Barcelos is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 15%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 6%. Barcelos is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 12%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 4%. Barcelos is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 12%.

How lopsided is this fight?
  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.

  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 35%. Barcelos by decision: 25%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 37%. Barcelos by decision: 25%.

  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 45%. Barcelos by decision: 21%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
  • Claude

    Barcelos wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Gemini

    Barcelos wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision
  • Claude

    60%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    62%.

  • Gemini

    66%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?
  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 58%, Barcelos 42%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 60%, Barcelos 40%.

  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 68%, Barcelos 32%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?
  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 35% here against 41% on average for the others.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 37% here against 40% on average for the others.

  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 45% here against 36% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?
  • Claude

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (58%).

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (56%).

  • Gemini

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (65%).

Which model is most confident on Rosas Jr., and which on Barcelos?
  • Claude

    On Rosas Jr.: Gemini (65%). On Barcelos: ChatGPT (44%).

Where do the models disagree most?
  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 45% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?
  • Claude

    Chris Cross (Rosas Jr. by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Rosas Jr. by decision) and FightIQ (Rosas Jr. by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Rosas Jr., most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
  • Claude

    On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Gemini

    On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

What can't the model know?
  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?
  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
  • Claude

    No.

claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Rosas Jr.

Confidence 7 of 10 · High

Most likely: Rosas Jr. by decision, about 45 in 100

Win chance: Rosas Jr. 65%, Barcelos 35%.

Most likely outcomes

  1. Rosas Jr. by decision45%
  2. Barcelos by decision21%
  3. Rosas Jr. by submission12%
How it ends
  1. KO/TKO: Rosas Jr. 8%, Barcelos 10%.
  2. Submission: Rosas Jr. 12%, Barcelos 4%.
  3. Decision: Rosas Jr. 45%, Barcelos 21%.

Questions

The result 7 questions

Who wins, and how likely?
  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 35%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr.: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 44%.

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 58% (about 58 in 100 fights). Barcelos: 42%.

What is the single most likely outcome?
  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 45% (about 45 in 100).

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 37% (about 37 in 100).

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 35% (about 35 in 100).

What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
  • Gemini

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (45%); 2. Barcelos by decision (21%); 3. Rosas Jr. by submission (12%)

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (37%); 2. Barcelos by decision (25%); 3. Barcelos by KO/TKO (13%)

  • Claude

    1. Rosas Jr. by decision (35%); 2. Barcelos by decision (25%); 3. Rosas Jr. by submission (15%)

How confident is the model?
  • Gemini

    7 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 65% win chance.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    6 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 56% win chance.

  • Claude

    6 of 10, based on Rosas Jr.'s 58% win chance.

Does it end early or go to the judges?
  • Gemini

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.

  • Claude

    Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 40%. Decision: 60%.

How does Rosas Jr. win?
  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. wins 65%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 12%, decision 45%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. wins 56%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 12%, decision 37%.

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. wins 58%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 15%, decision 35%.

How does Barcelos win?
  • Gemini

    Barcelos wins 35%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%, decision 21%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos wins 44%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%, decision 25%.

  • Claude

    Barcelos wins 42%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%, decision 25%.

What if 1 question

What is the upset path?
  • Gemini

    Barcelos's most likely upset: Barcelos by decision (21%).

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos's most likely upset: Barcelos by decision (25%).

  • Claude

    Barcelos's most likely upset: Barcelos by decision (25%).

Compared with others 1 question

Do the models agree?
  • Gemini

    The models agree: all 3 pick Rosas Jr.

After the fight 1 question

What happened vs what the model said?
  • Gemini

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (45%).

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (37%).

  • Claude

    Result: Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO in round 5. Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Rosas Jr. by decision (35%).

More questions (19)

The result 7 questions

KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
  • Gemini

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 16%, decision 66%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    KO/TKO 20%, submission 18%, decision 62%.

  • Claude

    KO/TKO 18%, submission 22%, decision 60%.

Who is more likely to finish the other?
  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 20%, against 14% for Barcelos.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Even: each finishes the other 19% of the time.

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 23%, against 17% for Barcelos.

Can Rosas Jr. get the finish? Can Barcelos?
  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr.: 20% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 12%). Barcelos: 14% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 4%).

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr.: 19% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 12%). Barcelos: 19% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 6%).

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr.: 23% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 15%). Barcelos: 17% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 7%).

Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 4%. Barcelos is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 12%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 6%. Barcelos is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 12%.

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 7%. Barcelos is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 15%.

How lopsided is this fight?
  • Gemini

    Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.

  • Claude

    A clear favourite: 58% vs 42%.

Each fighter's single most likely way to win
  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 45%. Barcelos by decision: 21%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 37%. Barcelos by decision: 25%.

  • Claude

    Rosas Jr. by decision: 35%. Barcelos by decision: 25%.

How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
  • Gemini

    Barcelos wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Barcelos wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

  • Claude

    Barcelos wins 42% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.

Timing 1 question

Chance it goes to a decision
  • Gemini

    66%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    62%.

  • Claude

    60%.

What if 1 question

If it goes to the judges, who wins?
  • Gemini

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 68%, Barcelos 32%.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 60%, Barcelos 40%.

  • Claude

    If it goes to the judges: Rosas Jr. 58%, Barcelos 42%.

Compared with others 5 questions

Where does this model differ from the others?
  • Gemini

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 45% here against 36% on average for the others.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 37% here against 40% on average for the others.

  • Claude

    Biggest difference: Rosas Jr. by decision, 35% here against 41% on average for the others.

How does it compare with analyst picks?
  • Gemini

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (65%).

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (56%).

  • Claude

    Of 32 analyst picks, 12 back Rosas Jr. and 20 back Barcelos. This model picks Rosas Jr. (58%).

Which model is most confident on Rosas Jr., and which on Barcelos?
  • Gemini

    On Rosas Jr.: Gemini (65%). On Barcelos: ChatGPT (44%).

Where do the models disagree most?
  • Gemini

    Rosas Jr. by decision: from 35% (Claude) to 45% (Gemini).

Which analyst agrees most with this model?
  • Gemini

    Chris Cross (Rosas Jr. by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Rosas Jr. by decision) and FightIQ (Rosas Jr. by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Rosas Jr., most likely by decision.

How sure 4 questions

When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
  • Gemini

    On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.

Other models' answers
  • ChatGPT

    On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.

  • Claude

    On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.

What can't the model know?
  • FightCard

    Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.

How is "confidence" worked out?
  • FightCard

    Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.

What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
  • FightCard

    KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.

After the fight 1 question

Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
  • Gemini

    No.

Version not reported · 26 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Market Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 6 sportsbooks

57% Raul Rosas Jr.
43% Raoni Barcelos

Favoured: Rosas Jr. (57%) Called it

Rosas Jr. defeats Barcelos · KO/TKO R5

Final pre-fight line · as of 26 Sep 21:29 UTC · 6 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET