By Unanimous Decision - Rodolfo Vieira is taking home a #UFCVegas121 victory! [ LIVE NOW on @ParamountPlus ]
View video on X ↗Rodolfo Vieira defeats Robert Bryczek by unanimous decision
Unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Vieira vs Bryczek — Middleweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(11) 48%
52% (12)
AI Predictions
58%
42%
Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right nowBook prices available in Market
Checking latest live market odds.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Vieira repeatedly brought the fight to the mat and used mount and back control to dictate the first two rounds.
Bryczek found more striking success in the third, but Vieira answered with clinch control and another body-lock sequence.
Vieira's control earned the official unanimous decision after three rounds.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos prelim results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Vieira
Vieira has finished nine of his eleven career wins by submission, mostly the arm-triangle choke, but he has lost two straight — a decision to Eric McConico in April and a third-round head-kick knockout to Bo Nickal in November — and his own tape shows just 49% significant-strike defense. His route is to close the distance fast, avoid the six-centimeter reach gap on the feet and get the fight to the mat before Bryczek's hands find him.
Case for Bryczek
Bryczek has scored twelve of his eighteen career wins by knockout, almost all by punches, and carries a six-centimeter reach edge over Vieira. He is coming off his own decision loss to Cameron Rowston in May, so the question is whether he can keep the fight standing and land first against a fighter who has finished nine of his eleven wins by submission.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Vieira's 49% significant-strike defense holds up against Bryczek's twelve career knockouts.
- Whether Vieira can close distance and get underneath Bryczek before absorbing more of the kind of strikes that ended his last fight.
- Whether either fighter snaps their current losing streak — both come in off a defeat.
- Whether the fight is decided on the feet, where Bryczek's knockouts and reach edge apply, or on the mat, where Vieira's nine submissions do.
Records & career stats
- 3.43 2.80
- 49% 54%
- 4.28 4.51
- 60% 79%
- 83% 72%
- 11-5-0
- Record
- 18-7-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Brazil
- Nationality
- Poland
- 36
- Age
- 36
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 10:26
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 14:11
- Fight Sports Deerfield Beach
- Team
- Uniq Fight Club
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(11) 48%
WVieira
52% (12)
BryczekL
Show Me The Money
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira · Dec
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Picks Rodolfo Vieira.
“Rafa Vier by decision at plus 350 is an insane price”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 100.0% (4 hit, 0 miss, across 4 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 4 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 4
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Rodolfo Vieira as its pick over Robert Bryczek.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Picks Rual Vieira by first-round submission.
“I am going to take Vieira to win this fight by first round sub.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Drake Burden picks Rodolfo Vieira.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira · Sub
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Picks Rual Vieira by submission.
“I am going to pick Ralfo Vieira to win this fight via submission.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Fight Productions picks Rodolfo Vieira by first-round submission over Robert Bryczek.
“I'll go round one sub for Vieira.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira · Dec
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Chris Cross
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Vieira
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Chris Cross picks Rodolfo Vieira without specifying a method or round.
“I like the Brazilian to get the win.”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (8 hit, 12 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Bryczek survives Vieira's early grappling threat, escapes submissions, then outstrikes and finishes slowing Vieira.
“Vieta will start to gas and then Brit can put him away. So, I'll say it happens in round two. Give me Robert here.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
Tony Sink
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Tony Sink picks Robert Bryczek.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (11 hit, 6 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 11 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Angelo picks canonical Robert Bryczek; the adjacent Vieira breakdown renders Bryczek as Robert Burch/Burk in the captions.
“I think Robert Burch wins this fight. And I'm honestly somewhat confident in that.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Danny Howard
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Danny Howard picks Robert Bryczek, citing Bryczek's boxing and striking advantage over Rodolfo Vieira's takedown entries.
Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.3% (7 hit, 5 miss, across 12 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 12 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 12 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek · KO/TKO
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Picks Robert Bryczek by knockout.
“I am going to pick Robert Berick to knock out Riddle Vieira in this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Jon Litterine picks Robert Bryczek.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek · KO/TKO
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Picks Robert Bryczek.
“Britechek, he's a super explosive striker. I think he should be able to get this one done.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Picks Robert Bryczek.
“I'm going to pick Robert Brightick to win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Greedo Plays MMA picks Robert Bryczek by first-round KO/TKO over Rodolfo Vieira.
“Give me Robert Bryczek first-round knockout victory over Rodolfo Vieira.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Rparqs
Current pick evidence
Picked: Robert Bryczek
Fight result: Rodolfo Vieira · Decision
Picks Robert Bryczek.
“I'm going to take Bright.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Analyst picks: Show Me The Money Hit; FightIQ Hit; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Tony Sink Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Drake Burden Hit; James Blissett Hit; Danny Howard Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Cole Shelton Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; MikesMMAPicks Hit; The MMA Yuda Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; Nick Kalikas Hit; Chris Cross Hit; Chris White Miss; Rparqs Miss.
11 of 23 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Vieira · Decision · R3
Closest probability Gemini put 60% on Vieira.
59%
Vieira
41%
Bryczek
PickVieira · Submission · R1ActualVieira · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing round
56%
Vieira
44%
Bryczek
PickVieira · Submission · R2ActualVieira · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing round
60%
Vieira
40%
Bryczek
PickVieira · Submission · R1ActualVieira · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Vieira
Most likely: Vieira by submission, about 43 in 100
Win chance: Vieira 59%, Bryczek 41%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Vieira
Most likely: Vieira by submission, about 28 in 100
Win chance: Vieira 56%, Bryczek 44%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Vieira
Most likely: Vieira by submission, about 46 in 100
Win chance: Vieira 60%, Bryczek 40%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
3 of 3 models pick Vieira.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Vieira: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 41%.
Claude
Vieira: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 44%.
Gemini
Vieira: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 40%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Vieira by submission: 43% (about 43 in 100).
Claude
Vieira by submission: 28% (about 28 in 100).
Gemini
Vieira by submission: 46% (about 46 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Vieira by submission (43%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (24%); 3. Bryczek by decision (16%)
Claude
1. Vieira by submission (28%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Vieira by decision (16%)
Gemini
1. Vieira by submission (46%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (24%); 3. Bryczek by decision (14%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 59% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 56% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 60% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 71%. Decision: 29%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 71%. Decision: 29%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 76%. Decision: 24%.
How does Vieira win?
ChatGPT
Vieira wins 59%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 43%, decision 13%.
Claude
Vieira wins 56%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 28%, decision 16%.
Gemini
Vieira wins 60%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 46%, decision 10%.
How does Bryczek win?
ChatGPT
Bryczek wins 41%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 1%, decision 16%.
Claude
Bryczek wins 44%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 4%, decision 13%.
Gemini
Bryczek wins 40%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 2%, decision 14%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Vieira.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (43%).
Claude
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (28%).
Gemini
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (46%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
13% (about 13 in 100).
Claude
16% (about 16 in 100).
Gemini
10% (about 10 in 100).
More questions (16)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 27%, submission 44%, decision 29%.
Claude
KO/TKO 39%, submission 32%, decision 29%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 48%, decision 24%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Vieira: 46%, against 25% for Bryczek.
Claude
Vieira: 40%, against 31% for Bryczek.
Gemini
Vieira: 50%, against 26% for Bryczek.
Can Vieira get the finish? Can Bryczek?
ChatGPT
Vieira: 46% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 43%). Bryczek: 25% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 1%).
Claude
Vieira: 40% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 28%). Bryczek: 31% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 4%).
Gemini
Vieira: 50% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 46%). Bryczek: 26% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Vieira is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 1%. Bryczek is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 43%.
Claude
Vieira is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 4%. Bryczek is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 28%.
Gemini
Vieira is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 2%. Bryczek is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 46%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 59% vs 41%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Bryczek wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Bryczek wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Bryczek wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
29%.
Claude
29%.
Gemini
24%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 45%, Bryczek 55%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 55%, Bryczek 45%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 42%, Bryczek 58%.
Compared with others 2 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (59%).
Claude
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (56%).
Gemini
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (60%).
Which model is most confident on Vieira, and which on Bryczek?
All models
On Vieira: Gemini (60%). On Bryczek: Claude (44%).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
All models
Claude, which gave the actual result 16%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
Claude
Yes.
Gemini
No.
ChatGPT
Pick
Vieira
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Vieira by submission, about 43 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 1.
Win chance: Vieira 59%, Bryczek 41%.
Most likely outcomes
- Vieira by submission43%
- Bryczek by KO/TKO24%
- Bryczek by decision16%
- KO/TKO: Vieira 3%, Bryczek 24%.
- Submission: Vieira 43%, Bryczek 1%.
- Decision: Vieira 13%, Bryczek 16%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Vieira: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 41%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Vieira: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 44%.
Gemini
Vieira: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 40%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Vieira by submission: 43% (about 43 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Vieira by submission: 28% (about 28 in 100).
Gemini
Vieira by submission: 46% (about 46 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Vieira by submission (43%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (24%); 3. Bryczek by decision (16%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Vieira by submission (28%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Vieira by decision (16%)
Gemini
1. Vieira by submission (46%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (24%); 3. Bryczek by decision (14%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 59% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 56% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 60% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 71%. Decision: 29%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 76%. Decision: 24%.
How does Vieira win?
ChatGPT
Vieira wins 59%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 43%, decision 13%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Vieira wins 56%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 28%, decision 16%.
Gemini
Vieira wins 60%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 46%, decision 10%.
How does Bryczek win?
ChatGPT
Bryczek wins 41%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 1%, decision 16%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Bryczek wins 44%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 4%, decision 13%.
Gemini
Bryczek wins 40%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 2%, decision 14%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Vieira.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (43%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (28%).
Gemini
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (46%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
13% (about 13 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
16% (about 16 in 100).
Gemini
10% (about 10 in 100).
More questions (16)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 27%, submission 44%, decision 29%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 39%, submission 32%, decision 29%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 48%, decision 24%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Vieira: 46%, against 25% for Bryczek.
Other models' answers
Claude
Vieira: 40%, against 31% for Bryczek.
Gemini
Vieira: 50%, against 26% for Bryczek.
Can Vieira get the finish? Can Bryczek?
ChatGPT
Vieira: 46% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 43%). Bryczek: 25% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 1%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Vieira: 40% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 28%). Bryczek: 31% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 4%).
Gemini
Vieira: 50% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 46%). Bryczek: 26% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Vieira is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 1%. Bryczek is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 43%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Vieira is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 4%. Bryczek is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 28%.
Gemini
Vieira is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 2%. Bryczek is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 46%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 59% vs 41%.
Other models' answers
Claude
A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Bryczek wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Bryczek wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Bryczek wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
29%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
24%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 45%, Bryczek 55%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 55%, Bryczek 45%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 42%, Bryczek 58%.
Compared with others 2 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (59%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (56%).
Gemini
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (60%).
Which model is most confident on Vieira, and which on Bryczek?
ChatGPT
On Vieira: Gemini (60%). On Bryczek: Claude (44%).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
ChatGPT
Claude, which gave the actual result 16%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
Other models' answers
Claude
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Vieira
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Vieira by submission, about 28 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Vieira 56%, Bryczek 44%.
Most likely outcomes
- Vieira by submission28%
- Bryczek by KO/TKO27%
- Vieira by decision16%
- KO/TKO: Vieira 12%, Bryczek 27%.
- Submission: Vieira 28%, Bryczek 4%.
- Decision: Vieira 16%, Bryczek 13%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Vieira: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 44%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 41%.
Gemini
Vieira: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 40%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Vieira by submission: 28% (about 28 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira by submission: 43% (about 43 in 100).
Gemini
Vieira by submission: 46% (about 46 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Vieira by submission (28%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Vieira by decision (16%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Vieira by submission (43%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (24%); 3. Bryczek by decision (16%)
Gemini
1. Vieira by submission (46%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (24%); 3. Bryczek by decision (14%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 56% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 59% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 60% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 71%. Decision: 29%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 76%. Decision: 24%.
How does Vieira win?
Claude
Vieira wins 56%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 28%, decision 16%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira wins 59%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 43%, decision 13%.
Gemini
Vieira wins 60%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 46%, decision 10%.
How does Bryczek win?
Claude
Bryczek wins 44%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 4%, decision 13%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bryczek wins 41%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 1%, decision 16%.
Gemini
Bryczek wins 40%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 2%, decision 14%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Vieira.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (28%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (43%).
Gemini
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (46%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Claude
16% (about 16 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
13% (about 13 in 100).
Gemini
10% (about 10 in 100).
More questions (16)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 39%, submission 32%, decision 29%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 27%, submission 44%, decision 29%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 48%, decision 24%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Vieira: 40%, against 31% for Bryczek.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira: 46%, against 25% for Bryczek.
Gemini
Vieira: 50%, against 26% for Bryczek.
Can Vieira get the finish? Can Bryczek?
Claude
Vieira: 40% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 28%). Bryczek: 31% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 4%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira: 46% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 43%). Bryczek: 25% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 1%).
Gemini
Vieira: 50% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 46%). Bryczek: 26% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Vieira is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 4%. Bryczek is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 1%. Bryczek is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 43%.
Gemini
Vieira is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 2%. Bryczek is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 46%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 59% vs 41%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Bryczek wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bryczek wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Bryczek wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
29%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
24%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 55%, Bryczek 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 45%, Bryczek 55%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 42%, Bryczek 58%.
Compared with others 2 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (56%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (59%).
Gemini
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (60%).
Which model is most confident on Vieira, and which on Bryczek?
Claude
On Vieira: Gemini (60%). On Bryczek: Claude (44%).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Claude
Claude, which gave the actual result 16%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
No.
Gemini
No.
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Vieira
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Vieira by submission, about 46 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 1.
Win chance: Vieira 60%, Bryczek 40%.
Most likely outcomes
- Vieira by submission46%
- Bryczek by KO/TKO24%
- Bryczek by decision14%
- KO/TKO: Vieira 4%, Bryczek 24%.
- Submission: Vieira 46%, Bryczek 2%.
- Decision: Vieira 10%, Bryczek 14%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Vieira: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 40%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira: 59% (about 59 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 41%.
Claude
Vieira: 56% (about 56 in 100 fights). Bryczek: 44%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Vieira by submission: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira by submission: 43% (about 43 in 100).
Claude
Vieira by submission: 28% (about 28 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Vieira by submission (46%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (24%); 3. Bryczek by decision (14%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Vieira by submission (43%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (24%); 3. Bryczek by decision (16%)
Claude
1. Vieira by submission (28%); 2. Bryczek by KO/TKO (27%); 3. Vieira by decision (16%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 60% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 59% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Vieira's 56% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 76%. Decision: 24%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 71%. Decision: 29%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 71%. Decision: 29%.
How does Vieira win?
Gemini
Vieira wins 60%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 46%, decision 10%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira wins 59%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 43%, decision 13%.
Claude
Vieira wins 56%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 28%, decision 16%.
How does Bryczek win?
Gemini
Bryczek wins 40%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 2%, decision 14%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bryczek wins 41%: KO/TKO 24%, submission 1%, decision 16%.
Claude
Bryczek wins 44%: KO/TKO 27%, submission 4%, decision 13%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Vieira.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (46%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (43%).
Claude
Result: Vieira by decision, the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Vieira by submission (28%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Gemini
10% (about 10 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
13% (about 13 in 100).
Claude
16% (about 16 in 100).
More questions (16)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 48%, decision 24%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 27%, submission 44%, decision 29%.
Claude
KO/TKO 39%, submission 32%, decision 29%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Vieira: 50%, against 26% for Bryczek.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira: 46%, against 25% for Bryczek.
Claude
Vieira: 40%, against 31% for Bryczek.
Can Vieira get the finish? Can Bryczek?
Gemini
Vieira: 50% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 46%). Bryczek: 26% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 2%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira: 46% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 43%). Bryczek: 25% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 1%).
Claude
Vieira: 40% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 28%). Bryczek: 31% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 4%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Vieira is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 2%. Bryczek is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 46%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Vieira is knocked out in 24% and submitted in 1%. Bryczek is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 43%.
Claude
Vieira is knocked out in 27% and submitted in 4%. Bryczek is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 28%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 59% vs 41%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 56% vs 44%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Bryczek wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bryczek wins 41% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Bryczek wins 44% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
24%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
29%.
Claude
29%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 42%, Bryczek 58%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 45%, Bryczek 55%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Vieira 55%, Bryczek 45%.
Compared with others 2 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (60%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (59%).
Claude
Of 23 analyst picks, 11 back Vieira and 12 back Bryczek. This model picks Vieira (56%).
Which model is most confident on Vieira, and which on Bryczek?
Gemini
On Vieira: Gemini (60%). On Bryczek: Claude (44%).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Gemini
Claude, which gave the actual result 16%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
No.
Other models' answers
Claude
Yes.
Version not reported · 26 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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