Ailin Perez now has the second longest win streak in UFC bantamweight history 😤 Her #UFCVegas121 win makes it seventh consecutive wins for @AiluPerezUFC ! (Nunes, 9)
View photo on X ↗Ailin Perez defeats Norma Dumont by unanimous decision
Dumont vs Perez — Women's Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(5) 19%
81% (21)
AI Predictions
45%
55%
Market Odds
40%
60%
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Perez used early takedowns and control to establish her strongest rounds of the fight.
Dumont recovered with her own striking and wrestling sequences as the bout moved into the later rounds.
Perez's early control was enough for the official unanimous decision after three rounds.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos main card results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Dumont
Dumont enters with a measured, technical approach. Her route is to manage range, punish entries and force Perez to work for every exchange.
Case for Perez
Perez brings a pressure-oriented game and a strong athletic profile from Goat Shed Academy. Her route is to close distance, make the fight physical and keep Dumont from dictating a long-range rhythm.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Dumont can keep the fight at her preferred distance.
- How Perez's pressure changes the pace.
- Which fighter wins the clinch and first takedown exchanges.
Records & career stats
- 3.85 2.88
- 64% 57%
- 2.33 1.58
- 72% 73%
- 15% 43%
- 13-3-0
- Record
- 13-2-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- Brazil
- Nationality
- Argentina
- 35
- Age
- 31
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 14:53
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:41
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
After the fight
Before the fight (2)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(5) 19%
LDumont
81% (21)
PerezW
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Norma Dumont
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Angelo picks canonical Norma Dumont after the adjacent Perez breakdown; Deont/Dumont are preserved as caption variants.
“Norman Dumont's going to be the pick.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: Norma Dumont
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Norma Dumont
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
Josh Schonwald
Current pick evidence
Picked: Norma Dumont
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Josh Schonwald picks Norma Dumont.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 15 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (6 hit, 9 miss, across 15 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 14.3% (1 hit, 6 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 15 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 6 9
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: Norma Dumont
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Show Me The Money
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Picks Ailin Perez.
“lean Eileen Perez here”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 100.0% (4 hit, 0 miss, across 4 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 4 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 4
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez · Dec
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists Ailin Perez as its pick over Norma Dumont.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Perez has momentum, superior wrestling and grappling will control Dumont on the ground and win on control time.
“I'm going to go Eileen Perez here I think she's got the momentum on her side and I also like the grappling that she brings to the table.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez · Dec
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Picks Ailin Perez by decision.
“I am going to go Eileen Perez to win this fight and win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Drake Burden picks Ailin Perez.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
Michael Iannone
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez · Dec
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Written pick by Michael Iannone in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 62.5% (15 hit, 9 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 round-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 15 9
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez · Dec
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Picks Ailin Perez by decision.
“I'm picking Perez in this one. I'll say she wins it by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
KingofCrackdown5095
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez · Dec
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Ailin Perez by decision over Norma Dumont.
“In this one I have Eileen Perez via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.7% 37 26
- Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11
- Round Accuracy 42.1% 8 11
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez · Dec
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Picks Ailin Perez by decision over Norma Dumont.
“Perez is going to win by decision over Norma Deont in this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Jon Litterine picks Ailin Perez.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez · Dec
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Fight Productions picks Ailin Perez by decision over Norma Dumont.
“So, Eileen Perez, uh, by decision is going to be my pick.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez · Dec
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Cole Shelton picks Ailin Perez.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Picks Ailin Perez.
“Let's just pick Perez. She's going to get her takedowns on Dumont.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Picks Ailin Perez.
“I'm going to pick Eileen Perez here.”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez · Dec
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Greedo Plays MMA picks Ailin Perez by decision over Norma Dumont.
“Give me Ailin Perez by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
From final parlay combination.
“Next parlay, last but not least is Yasmin money line, Een Perez money line, and Rena all money line at a plus 130.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Ryan Wohl
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Written pick by Ryan Wohl in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 13 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 13 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Rparqs
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
Picks Ailin Perez.
“Give me Eileen Perez. She's more in her prime.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
FIGHT//AI
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ailin Perez
Fight result: Ailin Perez · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s selected value bet names Ailin Perez.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: Show Me The Money Hit; FightIQ Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Miss; Drake Burden Hit; Michael Iannone Hit; James Blissett Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Hit; Artem MMA Hit; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Productions Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Cole Shelton Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; MikesMMAPicks Miss; The MMA Yuda Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Nick Kalikas Hit; Uselyis Hit; Ryan Wohl Hit; Josh Schonwald Miss; Chris White Miss; Rparqs Hit; FIGHT//AI Hit.
21 of 26 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Perez · Decision · R3
Closest probability Gemini put 60% on Perez.
53%
Dumont
47%
Perez
PickDumont · DecisionActualPerez · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook underdogMissSportsbook underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Sportsbook underdog: underdog call, miss
43%
Dumont
57%
Perez
PickPerez · DecisionActualPerez · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
40%
Dumont
60%
Perez
PickPerez · DecisionActualPerez · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite callAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Dumont
Most likely: Dumont by decision, about 46 in 100
Win chance: Dumont 53%, Perez 47%.
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Perez
Most likely: Perez by decision, about 38 in 100
Win chance: Dumont 43%, Perez 57%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Perez
Most likely: Perez by decision, about 49 in 100
Win chance: Dumont 40%, Perez 60%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
1 of 3 models pick Dumont; 2 of 3 models pick Perez.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Dumont: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Perez: 47%.
Claude
Perez: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Dumont: 43%.
Gemini
Perez: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Dumont: 40%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Dumont by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Claude
Perez by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
Gemini
Perez by decision: 49% (about 49 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Dumont by decision (46%); 2. Perez by decision (40%); 3. Dumont by KO/TKO (5%)
Claude
1. Perez by decision (38%); 2. Dumont by decision (30%); 3. Perez by KO/TKO (12%)
Gemini
1. Perez by decision (49%); 2. Dumont by decision (34%); 3. Perez by submission (8%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Dumont's 53% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Perez's 57% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Perez's 60% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 32%. Decision: 68%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 17%. Decision: 83%.
How does Dumont win?
ChatGPT
Dumont wins 53%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 46%.
Claude
Dumont wins 43%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%, decision 30%.
Gemini
Dumont wins 40%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 2%, decision 34%.
How does Perez win?
ChatGPT
Perez wins 47%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
Claude
Perez wins 57%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 7%, decision 38%.
Gemini
Perez wins 60%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 8%, decision 49%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Perez's most likely upset: Perez by decision (40%).
Claude
Dumont's most likely upset: Dumont by decision (30%).
Gemini
Dumont's most likely upset: Dumont by decision (34%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Dumont, Claude: Perez, Gemini: Perez).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Perez by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Dumont by decision (46%).
Claude
Result: Perez by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
Result: Perez by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
40% (about 40 in 100).
Claude
38% (about 38 in 100).
Gemini
49% (about 49 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 86%.
Claude
KO/TKO 20%, submission 12%, decision 68%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 7%, submission 10%, decision 83%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Even: each finishes the other 7% of the time.
Claude
Perez: 19%, against 13% for Dumont.
Gemini
Perez: 11%, against 6% for Dumont.
Can Dumont get the finish? Can Perez?
ChatGPT
Dumont: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%). Perez: 7% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%).
Claude
Dumont: 13% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%). Perez: 19% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 7%).
Gemini
Dumont: 6% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 2%). Perez: 11% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 8%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Dumont is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 4%. Perez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%.
Claude
Dumont is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 7%. Perez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Dumont is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 8%. Perez is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 2%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 43%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Dumont by decision: 46%. Perez by decision: 40%.
Claude
Dumont by decision: 30%. Perez by decision: 38%.
Gemini
Dumont by decision: 34%. Perez by decision: 49%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Perez wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Claude
Dumont wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Dumont wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
86%.
Claude
68%.
Gemini
83%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 54%, Perez 47%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 44%, Perez 56%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 41%, Perez 59%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Dumont by decision, 46% here against 32% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Dumont by decision, 30% here against 40% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Perez by decision, 49% here against 39% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Dumont (53%).
Claude
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Perez (57%).
Gemini
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Perez (60%).
Which model is most confident on Dumont, and which on Perez?
All models
On Dumont: ChatGPT (53%). On Perez: Gemini (60%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Dumont by decision: from 30% (Claude) to 46% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
We Want Picks (Dumont), Josh Schonwald (Dumont), Adam Martin (Dumont), MikesMMAPicks (Dumont) and Chris White (Dumont): the same winner as this model, tied; this model favours Dumont, most likely by decision.
Claude
Chris Schweppe (Perez by decision), Fight Productions (Perez by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Perez by decision), Artem MMA (Perez by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Perez by decision), James Blissett (Perez by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Perez by decision), Michael Iannone (Perez by decision) and FightIQ (Perez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Perez, most likely by decision.
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Perez by decision), Fight Productions (Perez by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Perez by decision), Artem MMA (Perez by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Perez by decision), James Blissett (Perez by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Perez by decision), Michael Iannone (Perez by decision) and FightIQ (Perez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Perez, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
All models
Gemini, which gave the actual result 49%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Dumont
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Dumont by decision, about 46 in 100
Win chance: Dumont 53%, Perez 47%.
Most likely outcomes
- Dumont by decision46%
- Perez by decision40%
- Dumont by KO/TKO5%
- KO/TKO: Dumont 5%, Perez 3%.
- Submission: Dumont 2%, Perez 4%.
- Decision: Dumont 46%, Perez 40%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Dumont: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Perez: 47%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Perez: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Dumont: 43%.
Gemini
Perez: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Dumont: 40%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Dumont by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Perez by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
Gemini
Perez by decision: 49% (about 49 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Dumont by decision (46%); 2. Perez by decision (40%); 3. Dumont by KO/TKO (5%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Perez by decision (38%); 2. Dumont by decision (30%); 3. Perez by KO/TKO (12%)
Gemini
1. Perez by decision (49%); 2. Dumont by decision (34%); 3. Perez by submission (8%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Dumont's 53% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
6 of 10, based on Perez's 57% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Perez's 60% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 32%. Decision: 68%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 17%. Decision: 83%.
How does Dumont win?
ChatGPT
Dumont wins 53%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 46%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Dumont wins 43%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%, decision 30%.
Gemini
Dumont wins 40%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 2%, decision 34%.
How does Perez win?
ChatGPT
Perez wins 47%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Perez wins 57%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 7%, decision 38%.
Gemini
Perez wins 60%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 8%, decision 49%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Perez's most likely upset: Perez by decision (40%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Dumont's most likely upset: Dumont by decision (30%).
Gemini
Dumont's most likely upset: Dumont by decision (34%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Dumont, Claude: Perez, Gemini: Perez).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Perez by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Dumont by decision (46%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Perez by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
Gemini
Result: Perez by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
40% (about 40 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
38% (about 38 in 100).
Gemini
49% (about 49 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 86%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 20%, submission 12%, decision 68%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 7%, submission 10%, decision 83%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Even: each finishes the other 7% of the time.
Other models' answers
Claude
Perez: 19%, against 13% for Dumont.
Gemini
Perez: 11%, against 6% for Dumont.
Can Dumont get the finish? Can Perez?
ChatGPT
Dumont: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%). Perez: 7% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Dumont: 13% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%). Perez: 19% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 7%).
Gemini
Dumont: 6% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 2%). Perez: 11% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 8%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Dumont is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 4%. Perez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Dumont is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 7%. Perez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Dumont is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 8%. Perez is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 2%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Other models' answers
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 43%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Dumont by decision: 46%. Perez by decision: 40%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Dumont by decision: 30%. Perez by decision: 38%.
Gemini
Dumont by decision: 34%. Perez by decision: 49%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Perez wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Dumont wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Dumont wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
86%.
Other models' answers
Claude
68%.
Gemini
83%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 54%, Perez 47%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 44%, Perez 56%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 41%, Perez 59%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Dumont by decision, 46% here against 32% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: Dumont by decision, 30% here against 40% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Perez by decision, 49% here against 39% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Dumont (53%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Perez (57%).
Gemini
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Perez (60%).
Which model is most confident on Dumont, and which on Perez?
ChatGPT
On Dumont: ChatGPT (53%). On Perez: Gemini (60%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Dumont by decision: from 30% (Claude) to 46% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
We Want Picks (Dumont), Josh Schonwald (Dumont), Adam Martin (Dumont), MikesMMAPicks (Dumont) and Chris White (Dumont): the same winner as this model, tied; this model favours Dumont, most likely by decision.
Other models' answers
Claude
Chris Schweppe (Perez by decision), Fight Productions (Perez by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Perez by decision), Artem MMA (Perez by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Perez by decision), James Blissett (Perez by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Perez by decision), Michael Iannone (Perez by decision) and FightIQ (Perez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Perez, most likely by decision.
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Perez by decision), Fight Productions (Perez by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Perez by decision), Artem MMA (Perez by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Perez by decision), James Blissett (Perez by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Perez by decision), Michael Iannone (Perez by decision) and FightIQ (Perez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Perez, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
ChatGPT
Gemini, which gave the actual result 49%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Perez
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Perez by decision, about 38 in 100
Win chance: Dumont 43%, Perez 57%.
Most likely outcomes
- Perez by decision38%
- Dumont by decision30%
- Perez by KO/TKO12%
- KO/TKO: Dumont 8%, Perez 12%.
- Submission: Dumont 5%, Perez 7%.
- Decision: Dumont 30%, Perez 38%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Perez: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Dumont: 43%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Perez: 47%.
Gemini
Perez: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Dumont: 40%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Perez by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Gemini
Perez by decision: 49% (about 49 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Perez by decision (38%); 2. Dumont by decision (30%); 3. Perez by KO/TKO (12%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Dumont by decision (46%); 2. Perez by decision (40%); 3. Dumont by KO/TKO (5%)
Gemini
1. Perez by decision (49%); 2. Dumont by decision (34%); 3. Perez by submission (8%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
6 of 10, based on Perez's 57% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Dumont's 53% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Perez's 60% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 32%. Decision: 68%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 17%. Decision: 83%.
How does Dumont win?
Claude
Dumont wins 43%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%, decision 30%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont wins 53%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 46%.
Gemini
Dumont wins 40%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 2%, decision 34%.
How does Perez win?
Claude
Perez wins 57%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 7%, decision 38%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Perez wins 47%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
Gemini
Perez wins 60%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 8%, decision 49%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Dumont's most likely upset: Dumont by decision (30%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Perez's most likely upset: Perez by decision (40%).
Gemini
Dumont's most likely upset: Dumont by decision (34%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Dumont, Claude: Perez, Gemini: Perez).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Perez by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Perez by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Dumont by decision (46%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Claude
38% (about 38 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
40% (about 40 in 100).
Gemini
49% (about 49 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 20%, submission 12%, decision 68%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 86%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 7%, submission 10%, decision 83%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Perez: 19%, against 13% for Dumont.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Even: each finishes the other 7% of the time.
Gemini
Perez: 11%, against 6% for Dumont.
Can Dumont get the finish? Can Perez?
Claude
Dumont: 13% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%). Perez: 19% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 7%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%). Perez: 7% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%).
Gemini
Dumont: 6% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 2%). Perez: 11% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 8%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Dumont is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 7%. Perez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 5%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 4%. Perez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%.
Gemini
Dumont is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 8%. Perez is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 2%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 43%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Claude
Dumont by decision: 30%. Perez by decision: 38%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont by decision: 46%. Perez by decision: 40%.
Gemini
Dumont by decision: 34%. Perez by decision: 49%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Dumont wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Perez wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Gemini
Dumont wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
68%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
86%.
Gemini
83%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 44%, Perez 56%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 54%, Perez 47%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 41%, Perez 59%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Dumont by decision, 30% here against 40% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Dumont by decision, 46% here against 32% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Perez by decision, 49% here against 39% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Perez (57%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Dumont (53%).
Gemini
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Perez (60%).
Which model is most confident on Dumont, and which on Perez?
Claude
On Dumont: ChatGPT (53%). On Perez: Gemini (60%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Dumont by decision: from 30% (Claude) to 46% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Claude
Chris Schweppe (Perez by decision), Fight Productions (Perez by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Perez by decision), Artem MMA (Perez by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Perez by decision), James Blissett (Perez by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Perez by decision), Michael Iannone (Perez by decision) and FightIQ (Perez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Perez, most likely by decision.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
We Want Picks (Dumont), Josh Schonwald (Dumont), Adam Martin (Dumont), MikesMMAPicks (Dumont) and Chris White (Dumont): the same winner as this model, tied; this model favours Dumont, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Claude
Gemini, which gave the actual result 49%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Perez
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Perez by decision, about 49 in 100
Win chance: Dumont 40%, Perez 60%.
Most likely outcomes
- Perez by decision49%
- Dumont by decision34%
- Perez by submission8%
- KO/TKO: Dumont 4%, Perez 3%.
- Submission: Dumont 2%, Perez 8%.
- Decision: Dumont 34%, Perez 49%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Perez: 60% (about 60 in 100 fights). Dumont: 40%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Perez: 47%.
Claude
Perez: 57% (about 57 in 100 fights). Dumont: 43%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Perez by decision: 49% (about 49 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Claude
Perez by decision: 38% (about 38 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Perez by decision (49%); 2. Dumont by decision (34%); 3. Perez by submission (8%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Dumont by decision (46%); 2. Perez by decision (40%); 3. Dumont by KO/TKO (5%)
Claude
1. Perez by decision (38%); 2. Dumont by decision (30%); 3. Perez by KO/TKO (12%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Perez's 60% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
5 of 10, based on Dumont's 53% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Perez's 57% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 17%. Decision: 83%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 14%. Decision: 86%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 32%. Decision: 68%.
How does Dumont win?
Gemini
Dumont wins 40%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 2%, decision 34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont wins 53%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%, decision 46%.
Claude
Dumont wins 43%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%, decision 30%.
How does Perez win?
Gemini
Perez wins 60%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 8%, decision 49%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Perez wins 47%: KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%, decision 40%.
Claude
Perez wins 57%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 7%, decision 38%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Dumont's most likely upset: Dumont by decision (34%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Perez's most likely upset: Perez by decision (40%).
Claude
Dumont's most likely upset: Dumont by decision (30%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Dumont, Claude: Perez, Gemini: Perez).
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Perez by decision, the model's most likely outcome.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Perez by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Dumont by decision (46%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Gemini
49% (about 49 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
40% (about 40 in 100).
Claude
38% (about 38 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 7%, submission 10%, decision 83%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 8%, submission 6%, decision 86%.
Claude
KO/TKO 20%, submission 12%, decision 68%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Perez: 11%, against 6% for Dumont.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Even: each finishes the other 7% of the time.
Claude
Perez: 19%, against 13% for Dumont.
Can Dumont get the finish? Can Perez?
Gemini
Dumont: 6% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 2%). Perez: 11% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 8%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont: 7% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 2%). Perez: 7% (KO/TKO 3%, submission 4%).
Claude
Dumont: 13% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 5%). Perez: 19% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 7%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Dumont is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 8%. Perez is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 2%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont is knocked out in 3% and submitted in 4%. Perez is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 2%.
Claude
Dumont is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 7%. Perez is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 5%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
A clear favourite: 60% vs 40%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 57% vs 43%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Dumont by decision: 34%. Perez by decision: 49%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Dumont by decision: 46%. Perez by decision: 40%.
Claude
Dumont by decision: 30%. Perez by decision: 38%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Dumont wins 40% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Perez wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Claude
Dumont wins 43% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
83%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
86%.
Claude
68%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 41%, Perez 59%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 54%, Perez 47%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Dumont 44%, Perez 56%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Perez by decision, 49% here against 39% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Dumont by decision, 46% here against 32% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Dumont by decision, 30% here against 40% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Perez (60%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Dumont (53%).
Claude
Of 26 analyst picks, 5 back Dumont and 21 back Perez. This model picks Perez (57%).
Which model is most confident on Dumont, and which on Perez?
Gemini
On Dumont: ChatGPT (53%). On Perez: Gemini (60%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Dumont by decision: from 30% (Claude) to 46% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Perez by decision), Fight Productions (Perez by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Perez by decision), Artem MMA (Perez by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Perez by decision), James Blissett (Perez by decision), KingofCrackdown5095 (Perez by decision), Michael Iannone (Perez by decision) and FightIQ (Perez by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Perez, most likely by decision.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
We Want Picks (Dumont), Josh Schonwald (Dumont), Adam Martin (Dumont), MikesMMAPicks (Dumont) and Chris White (Dumont): the same winner as this model, tied; this model favours Dumont, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Gemini
Gemini, which gave the actual result 49%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 26 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
40%
Norma Dumont
60%
Ailin Perez
Favoured: Perez (60%) Called it
Perez defeats Dumont · Dec
Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.