“I had a lot to show to myself, my family, my team. This is the start of a new journey.”@ElvesBrener came away with a big win, in memory of his teammate Allan Nascimento at #UFCVegas121 Prelim Results ➡️ https://t.co/PrGJB0jNWF Scorecards ➡️ https://t.co/5t667X4q4Q
View video on X ↗Elves Brener defeats Josiah Harrell by KO/TKO
KO/TKO · strikes
Round 1 · 4:14
Harrell vs Brener — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(7) 29%
71% (17)
AI Predictions
46%
54%
Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right nowBook prices available in Market
Checking latest live market odds.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Harrell used early takedowns to try to establish his grappling game.
Brener defended the next entry and created the decisive counter opportunity in the striking exchange.
Brener landed the finishing right hand and follow-up strikes at 4:14 of round one.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos prelim results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Harrell
Harrell was unbeaten through his first eleven professional fights before a first-round knockout loss to Jacobe Smith in his UFC debut this February, and ten of those eleven wins came by finish — six by knockout, four by submission. His route is to use his Grove City BJJ base to get the fight to the mat and avoid another firefight on the feet, where his UFC tape shows him absorbing far more strikes than he lands.
Case for Brener
Brener is fighting to snap a three-fight skid — a decision and a TKO loss across his last three appearances — despite eleven of his sixteen career wins coming by submission. His route is to keep the pace high, he averages 4.76 significant strikes landed per minute, and turn the fight into the kind of firefight that has produced finishes for him before, rather than extend the streak.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Harrell can bounce back from the first-round knockout that ended his unbeaten start, or the same lopsided striking exposure repeats.
- Whether Brener's submission game — eleven of his sixteen wins — finds an opening before his three-fight losing streak becomes four.
- Whether Harrell's Grove City BJJ base or Brener's own submission-heavy résumé controls the fight if it goes to the mat.
- Whether Brener's 4.76-per-minute striking pace or Harrell's power — ten finishes in eleven wins — decides the fight standing.
Records & career stats
- 11-1-0
- Record
- 16-6-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2-3 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 27
- Age
- 27
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 76%
- 03:01
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:39
- Grove City BJJ
- Team
- Chute Boxe
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(7) 29%
LHarrell
71% (17)
BrenerW
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Josiah Harrell · Dec
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Josiah Harrell as its pick over Elves Brener.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: Josiah Harrell
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Josiah Harrell · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Fight Productions picks Josiah Harrell by second-round knockout over Elves Brener.
“I'm going to back Harold in this matchup, though. I'm going to take Harold by a round two knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Daniel Vreeland
Current pick evidence
Picked: Josiah Harrell
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Vreeland favors Harrell's punching power and physical wrestling against Brener, whose recent losses he attributes partly to difficulty handling stronger opposition.
Track record: winner called in 17 of 31 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.8% (17 hit, 14 miss, across 31 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 31 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 31 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Josiah Harrell
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Picks Josiah Harrell.
“I'm picking Josiah Harold to win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Josiah Harrell
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Rparqs
Current pick evidence
Picked: Josiah Harrell · Dec
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Picks Josiah Harrell.
“I'm going to take Josiah Harold here. I'm going to take him by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener · Dec
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Brener's experience and output on the feet will take rounds two and three over Harrell despite his wrestling threat.
“I'll go Elves Brener here by a decision. I just think he's going to be able to be a little bit busier as the fight plays out.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener · Dec
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Picks Elvis Brener by decision.
“I am going to go Brener to win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Tony Sink
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Tony Sink picks Elves Brener.
Track record: winner called in 11 of 17 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (11 hit, 6 miss, across 17 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 17 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 11 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Angelo picks Elves Brener in the adjacent Harrell breakdown; the transcript's Elvis/Ellis forms are caption variants.
“But I am going to pick Elves Brener because I do think just the general dog in him.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Drake Burden picks Elves Brener.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Picks Elvis Brener by knockout.
“Brener KO will be my official prediction.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Picks Elvis Brener by knockout.
“I'm picking Brena by KO.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Jon Litterine picks Elves Brener.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Lou Finocchiaro
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Written pick by Lou Finocchiaro in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 6 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 54.5% (6 hit, 5 miss, across 11 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 11 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 11 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Picks Elves Brener.
“give me Elves Briner to get this one done by knockout round one.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Greedo Plays MMA picks Elves Brener by second-round KO/TKO over Josiah Harrell.
“I'm gonna go second round knockout here for Elves Brener.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
From parlay section standalone pick.
“Elvis Burner money line at a plus 102.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Chris Cross
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Chris Cross picks Elves Brener without specifying a method or round.
“So, I like Brener to get the win.”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (8 hit, 12 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: Elves Brener
Fight result: Elves Brener · KO/TKO
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Analyst picks: FightIQ Miss; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Tony Sink Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Drake Burden Hit; James Blissett Hit; Artem MMA Hit; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Productions Miss; Daniel Vreeland Miss; Lou Finocchiaro Hit; Chris Schweppe Hit; Cole Shelton Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; MikesMMAPicks Hit; The MMA Yuda Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Nick Kalikas Miss; Uselyis Hit; Chris Cross Hit; Chris White Hit; Rparqs Miss.
17 of 24 nailed it.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Brener · KO/TKO · R1
Closest probability ChatGPT put 62% on Brener.
38%
Harrell
62%
Brener
PickBrener · DecisionActualBrener · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
47%
Harrell
53%
Brener
PickBrener · DecisionActualBrener · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot called
53%
Harrell
47%
Brener
PickHarrell · KO/TKO · R2ActualBrener · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Brener
Most likely: Brener by decision, about 30 in 100
Win chance: Harrell 38%, Brener 62%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Brener
Most likely: Brener by decision, about 29 in 100
Win chance: Harrell 47%, Brener 53%.
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Harrell
Most likely: Harrell by KO/TKO, about 25 in 100
Win chance: Harrell 53%, Brener 47%.
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
1 of 3 models pick Harrell; 2 of 3 models pick Brener.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Brener: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Harrell: 38%.
Claude
Brener: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Harrell: 47%.
Gemini
Harrell: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Brener: 47%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Brener by decision: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Claude
Brener by decision: 29% (about 29 in 100).
Gemini
Harrell by KO/TKO: 25% (about 25 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Brener by decision (30%); 2. Brener by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Harrell by decision (21%)
Claude
1. Brener by decision (29%); 2. Harrell by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Brener by KO/TKO (19%)
Gemini
1. Harrell by KO/TKO (25%); 2. Harrell by decision (21%); 3. Brener by decision (20%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Brener's 62% win chance.
Claude
5 of 10, based on Brener's 53% win chance.
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Harrell's 53% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 49%. Decision: 51%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.
How does Harrell win?
ChatGPT
Harrell wins 38%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 21%.
Claude
Harrell wins 47%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%, decision 16%.
Gemini
Harrell wins 53%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 7%, decision 21%.
How does Brener win?
ChatGPT
Brener wins 62%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 9%, decision 30%.
Claude
Brener wins 53%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%, decision 29%.
Gemini
Brener wins 47%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 16%, decision 20%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Harrell's most likely upset: Harrell by decision (21%).
Gemini
Brener's most likely upset: Brener by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Brener, Claude: Brener, Gemini: Harrell).
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Brener by decision (30%).
Claude
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Brener by decision (29%).
Gemini
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Harrell by KO/TKO (25%).
More questions (17)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 35%, submission 14%, decision 51%.
Claude
KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%, decision 45%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 36%, submission 23%, decision 41%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Brener: 32%, against 17% for Harrell.
Claude
Harrell: 31%, against 24% for Brener.
Gemini
Harrell: 32%, against 27% for Brener.
Can Harrell get the finish? Can Brener?
ChatGPT
Harrell: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Brener: 32% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 9%).
Claude
Harrell: 31% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%). Brener: 24% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Harrell: 32% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 7%). Brener: 27% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 16%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Harrell is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 9%. Brener is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.
Claude
Harrell is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 5%. Brener is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Harrell is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 16%. Brener is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 7%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Harrell by decision: 21%. Brener by decision: 30%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Harrell wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Harrell wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Gemini
Brener wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
51%.
Claude
45%.
Gemini
41%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 41%, Brener 59%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 36%, Brener 64%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 51%, Brener 49%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Brener (62%).
Claude
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Brener (53%).
Gemini
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Harrell (53%).
Which model is most confident on Harrell, and which on Brener?
All models
On Harrell: Gemini (53%). On Brener: ChatGPT (62%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
DFS By The Numbers (Brener by decision) and JakeGerberMMA (Brener by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Brener, most likely by decision.
Claude
DFS By The Numbers (Brener by decision) and JakeGerberMMA (Brener by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Brener, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
Claude
Yes.
Gemini
No.
ChatGPT
Pick
Brener
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Brener by decision, about 30 in 100
Win chance: Harrell 38%, Brener 62%.
Most likely outcomes
- Brener by decision30%
- Brener by KO/TKO23%
- Harrell by decision21%
- KO/TKO: Harrell 12%, Brener 23%.
- Submission: Harrell 5%, Brener 9%.
- Decision: Harrell 21%, Brener 30%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Brener: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Harrell: 38%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Brener: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Harrell: 47%.
Gemini
Harrell: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Brener: 47%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Brener by decision: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Brener by decision: 29% (about 29 in 100).
Gemini
Harrell by KO/TKO: 25% (about 25 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Brener by decision (30%); 2. Brener by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Harrell by decision (21%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Brener by decision (29%); 2. Harrell by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Brener by KO/TKO (19%)
Gemini
1. Harrell by KO/TKO (25%); 2. Harrell by decision (21%); 3. Brener by decision (20%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Brener's 62% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
5 of 10, based on Brener's 53% win chance.
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Harrell's 53% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 49%. Decision: 51%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.
How does Harrell win?
ChatGPT
Harrell wins 38%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 21%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Harrell wins 47%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%, decision 16%.
Gemini
Harrell wins 53%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 7%, decision 21%.
How does Brener win?
ChatGPT
Brener wins 62%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 9%, decision 30%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Brener wins 53%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%, decision 29%.
Gemini
Brener wins 47%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 16%, decision 20%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Harrell's most likely upset: Harrell by decision (21%).
Other models' answers
Gemini
Brener's most likely upset: Brener by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Brener, Claude: Brener, Gemini: Harrell).
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Brener by decision (30%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Brener by decision (29%).
Gemini
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Harrell by KO/TKO (25%).
More questions (17)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 35%, submission 14%, decision 51%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%, decision 45%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 36%, submission 23%, decision 41%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Brener: 32%, against 17% for Harrell.
Other models' answers
Claude
Harrell: 31%, against 24% for Brener.
Gemini
Harrell: 32%, against 27% for Brener.
Can Harrell get the finish? Can Brener?
ChatGPT
Harrell: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Brener: 32% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 9%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Harrell: 31% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%). Brener: 24% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Harrell: 32% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 7%). Brener: 27% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 16%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Harrell is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 9%. Brener is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Harrell is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 5%. Brener is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Harrell is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 16%. Brener is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 7%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Harrell by decision: 21%. Brener by decision: 30%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Harrell wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Harrell wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Gemini
Brener wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
51%.
Other models' answers
Claude
45%.
Gemini
41%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 41%, Brener 59%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 36%, Brener 64%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 51%, Brener 49%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Brener (62%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Brener (53%).
Gemini
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Harrell (53%).
Which model is most confident on Harrell, and which on Brener?
ChatGPT
On Harrell: Gemini (53%). On Brener: ChatGPT (62%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
DFS By The Numbers (Brener by decision) and JakeGerberMMA (Brener by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Brener, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
Other models' answers
Gemini
No.
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Brener
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Brener by decision, about 29 in 100
Win chance: Harrell 47%, Brener 53%.
Most likely outcomes
- Brener by decision29%
- Harrell by KO/TKO26%
- Brener by KO/TKO19%
- KO/TKO: Harrell 26%, Brener 19%.
- Submission: Harrell 5%, Brener 5%.
- Decision: Harrell 16%, Brener 29%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Brener: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Harrell: 47%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Brener: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Harrell: 38%.
Gemini
Harrell: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Brener: 47%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Brener by decision: 29% (about 29 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Brener by decision: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Gemini
Harrell by KO/TKO: 25% (about 25 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Brener by decision (29%); 2. Harrell by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Brener by KO/TKO (19%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Brener by decision (30%); 2. Brener by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Harrell by decision (21%)
Gemini
1. Harrell by KO/TKO (25%); 2. Harrell by decision (21%); 3. Brener by decision (20%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
5 of 10, based on Brener's 53% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Brener's 62% win chance.
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Harrell's 53% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 49%. Decision: 51%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.
How does Harrell win?
Claude
Harrell wins 47%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%, decision 16%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Harrell wins 38%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 21%.
Gemini
Harrell wins 53%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 7%, decision 21%.
How does Brener win?
Claude
Brener wins 53%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%, decision 29%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Brener wins 62%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 9%, decision 30%.
Gemini
Brener wins 47%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 16%, decision 20%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Brener, Claude: Brener, Gemini: Harrell).
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Brener by decision (29%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Brener by decision (30%).
Gemini
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Harrell by KO/TKO (25%).
More questions (16)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%, decision 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 35%, submission 14%, decision 51%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 36%, submission 23%, decision 41%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Harrell: 31%, against 24% for Brener.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Brener: 32%, against 17% for Harrell.
Gemini
Harrell: 32%, against 27% for Brener.
Can Harrell get the finish? Can Brener?
Claude
Harrell: 31% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%). Brener: 24% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Harrell: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Brener: 32% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 9%).
Gemini
Harrell: 32% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 7%). Brener: 27% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 16%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Harrell is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 5%. Brener is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 5%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Harrell is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 9%. Brener is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Harrell is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 16%. Brener is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 7%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Harrell wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Harrell wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Brener wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
51%.
Gemini
41%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 36%, Brener 64%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 41%, Brener 59%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 51%, Brener 49%.
Compared with others 3 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Brener (53%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Brener (62%).
Gemini
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Harrell (53%).
Which model is most confident on Harrell, and which on Brener?
Claude
On Harrell: Gemini (53%). On Brener: ChatGPT (62%).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Claude
DFS By The Numbers (Brener by decision) and JakeGerberMMA (Brener by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Brener, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
Other models' answers
Gemini
No.
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Harrell
Confidence 5 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Harrell by KO/TKO, about 25 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Harrell 53%, Brener 47%.
Most likely outcomes
- Harrell by KO/TKO25%
- Harrell by decision21%
- Brener by decision20%
- KO/TKO: Harrell 25%, Brener 11%.
- Submission: Harrell 7%, Brener 16%.
- Decision: Harrell 21%, Brener 20%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Harrell: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Brener: 47%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Brener: 62% (about 62 in 100 fights). Harrell: 38%.
Claude
Brener: 53% (about 53 in 100 fights). Harrell: 47%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Harrell by KO/TKO: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Brener by decision: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Claude
Brener by decision: 29% (about 29 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Harrell by KO/TKO (25%); 2. Harrell by decision (21%); 3. Brener by decision (20%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Brener by decision (30%); 2. Brener by KO/TKO (23%); 3. Harrell by decision (21%)
Claude
1. Brener by decision (29%); 2. Harrell by KO/TKO (26%); 3. Brener by KO/TKO (19%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
5 of 10, based on Harrell's 53% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Brener's 62% win chance.
Claude
5 of 10, based on Brener's 53% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 59%. Decision: 41%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 49%. Decision: 51%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
How does Harrell win?
Gemini
Harrell wins 53%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 7%, decision 21%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Harrell wins 38%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 21%.
Claude
Harrell wins 47%: KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%, decision 16%.
How does Brener win?
Gemini
Brener wins 47%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 16%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Brener wins 62%: KO/TKO 23%, submission 9%, decision 30%.
Claude
Brener wins 53%: KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%, decision 29%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Brener's most likely upset: Brener by decision (20%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Harrell's most likely upset: Harrell by decision (21%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models split 2–1 (ChatGPT: Brener, Claude: Brener, Gemini: Harrell).
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Harrell by KO/TKO (25%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Brener by decision (30%).
Claude
Result: Brener by KO/TKO in round 1. Brener by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Brener by decision (29%).
More questions (15)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 36%, submission 23%, decision 41%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 35%, submission 14%, decision 51%.
Claude
KO/TKO 45%, submission 10%, decision 45%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Harrell: 32%, against 27% for Brener.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Brener: 32%, against 17% for Harrell.
Claude
Harrell: 31%, against 24% for Brener.
Can Harrell get the finish? Can Brener?
Gemini
Harrell: 32% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 7%). Brener: 27% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 16%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Harrell: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Brener: 32% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 9%).
Claude
Harrell: 31% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 5%). Brener: 24% (KO/TKO 19%, submission 5%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Harrell is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 16%. Brener is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 7%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Harrell is knocked out in 23% and submitted in 9%. Brener is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.
Claude
Harrell is knocked out in 19% and submitted in 5%. Brener is knocked out in 26% and submitted in 5%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Close to a coin flip: 53% vs 47%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 62% vs 38%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Brener wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Harrell wins 38% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Harrell wins 47% (about 1 in 2 fights): close to a coin flip, not an upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
41%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
51%.
Claude
45%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 51%, Brener 49%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 41%, Brener 59%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Harrell 36%, Brener 64%.
Compared with others 2 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Harrell (53%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Brener (62%).
Claude
Of 24 analyst picks, 7 back Harrell and 17 back Brener. This model picks Brener (53%).
Which model is most confident on Harrell, and which on Brener?
Gemini
On Harrell: Gemini (53%). On Brener: ChatGPT (62%).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
No.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Yes.
Claude
Yes.
Version not reported · 26 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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