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View video on X ↗Ilimbek Akylbek defeats Mahammadali Osmanli by DQ
Watch the fight
DQ · illegal knee
Round 1 · 2:19
Osmanli vs Akylbek — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(16) 89%
11% (2)
AI Predictions
71%
29%
Market Odds
73%
27%
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Akylbek Uulu used his wrestling to bring the opening exchange to the mat.
Osmanli created danger with his hands, but an illegal knee changed the result while Akylbek Uulu was grounded.
Akylbek Uulu received the disqualification win at 2:19 of round one.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos main card results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Osmanli
Osmanli has finished seven of his twelve professional wins by submission and is unbeaten in nine straight fights since his only loss, a first-round submission to Feyruz Haydari in August 2022. His route is to close distance, chain takedown attempts and hunt the same guillotine, anaconda and rear-naked choke finishes that have carried most of his career, most recently a second-round guillotine over Bakhtovar Yunusov in November 2025.
Case for Akylbek
Akylbek Uulu has his own finishing identity — five of his nine wins by submission, mostly the rear-naked choke, including each of his last two — but he has been finished by strikes in all three of his career losses, most jarringly a 15-second TKO loss to Dzhokhar Eskiev in August 2024. His route is to get underneath Osmanli and find the choke before Osmanli's hands do the same to him.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Akylbek Uulu can close distance and find his rear-naked choke before absorbing the kind of clean strikes that produced all three of his career losses.
- Whether Osmanli's own submission chaining — seven finishes in twelve wins — controls the fight if it hits the mat first.
- Whether Akylbek Uulu's two-fight submission streak, which snapped back-to-back TKO losses in 2024, continues against a fellow finisher.
- Which fighter's choke game — Osmanli's guillotine-and-anaconda mix or Akylbek Uulu's rear-naked choke — closes the fight if it goes to the floor.
Records & career stats
- 12-1-0
- Record
- 9-3-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Not published
- Azerbaijan
- Nationality
- Kyrgyzstan
- 22
- Age
- 23
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 83%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- Not published
- 50%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- Not published
- 02:19
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 02:19
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(16) 89%
LOsmanli
11% (2)
AkylbekW
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by first-round knockout.
“I am going Os Manley to win this fight by first round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Drake Burden picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · KO/TKO
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by knockout.
“Ashmanley wins via knockout as my official prediction.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · KO/TKO
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by knockout.
“I am going to be picking Muhammad Ali Osmani by knockout over Akbeck in this matchup.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Jon Litterine picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Fight Productions picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by second-round submission over Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu.
“I'm going to go round two sub for Osmanli.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.
“And so, I'm going to pick him to win.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Greedo Plays MMA picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by first-round submission over Ilimbek Akylbek.
“I'm going to take Mehemmedeli Osmanli by first-round submission.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
More dangerous and versatile; looks clean on feet and strong on ground.
“I'm going to go Osman Lee as my fifth most confident pick”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Chris Cross
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Chris Cross picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli without specifying a method or round; the caption name is reconciled to the official UFC Vegas 121 matchup.
“I like Azamat Lee to get the win here.”
Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (8 hit, 12 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Rparqs
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.
“Give me Muhammad Ali Osmani to win by submission.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilimbek Akylbek
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Picks Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu.
“I'm going to pick Ulu to win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: Ilimbek Akylbek
Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Analyst picks: DFS By The Numbers Miss; Drake Burden Miss; James Blissett Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; MikesMMAPicks Miss; The MMA Yuda Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Uselyis Miss; Chris Cross Miss; Chris White Hit; Rparqs Miss.
Only 2 of 18 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Akylbek · DQ · R1
Closest probability ChatGPT put 33% on Akylbek.
67%
Osmanli
33%
Akylbek
PickOsmanli · KO/TKO · R2ActualAkylbek · DQ · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
72%
Osmanli
28%
Akylbek
PickOsmanli · Submission · R2ActualAkylbek · DQ · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
74%
Osmanli
26%
Akylbek
PickOsmanli · Submission · R2ActualAkylbek · DQ · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite callAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Osmanli
Most likely: Osmanli by KO/TKO, about 25 in 100
Win chance: Osmanli 67%, Akylbek 33%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Osmanli
Most likely: Osmanli by submission, about 35 in 100
Win chance: Osmanli 72%, Akylbek 28%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Osmanli
Most likely: Osmanli by submission, about 32 in 100
Win chance: Osmanli 74%, Akylbek 26%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
3 of 3 models pick Osmanli.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 33%.
Claude
Osmanli: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 28%.
Gemini
Osmanli: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 26%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Osmanli by KO/TKO: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Claude
Osmanli by submission: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Gemini
Osmanli by submission: 32% (about 32 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%); 2. Osmanli by submission (24%); 3. Akylbek by decision (19%)
Claude
1. Osmanli by submission (35%); 2. Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Akylbek by decision (15%)
Gemini
1. Osmanli by submission (32%); 2. Osmanli by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Osmanli by decision (20%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 67% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 72% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 74% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 63%. Decision: 37%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 73%. Decision: 27%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
How does Osmanli win?
ChatGPT
Osmanli wins 67%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 24%, decision 18%.
Claude
Osmanli wins 72%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 35%, decision 12%.
Gemini
Osmanli wins 74%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 32%, decision 20%.
How does Akylbek win?
ChatGPT
Akylbek wins 33%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 10%, decision 19%.
Claude
Akylbek wins 28%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%, decision 15%.
Gemini
Akylbek wins 26%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 6%, decision 14%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (19%).
Claude
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (15%).
Gemini
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (14%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Osmanli.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%).
Claude
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by submission (35%).
Gemini
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by submission (32%).
More questions (16)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 29%, submission 34%, decision 37%.
Claude
KO/TKO 30%, submission 43%, decision 27%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 38%, decision 34%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 49%, against 14% for Akylbek.
Claude
Osmanli: 60%, against 13% for Akylbek.
Gemini
Osmanli: 54%, against 12% for Akylbek.
Can Osmanli get the finish? Can Akylbek?
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 49% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 24%). Akylbek: 14% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 10%).
Claude
Osmanli: 60% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 35%). Akylbek: 13% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%).
Gemini
Osmanli: 54% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 32%). Akylbek: 12% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Osmanli is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 10%. Akylbek is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 24%.
Claude
Osmanli is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 8%. Akylbek is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 35%.
Gemini
Osmanli is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 6%. Akylbek is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 32%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Akylbek wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Akylbek wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Akylbek wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
37%.
Claude
27%.
Gemini
34%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 49%, Akylbek 51%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 44%, Akylbek 56%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 59%, Akylbek 41%.
Compared with others 3 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Osmanli by decision, 20% here against 15% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (67%).
Claude
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (72%).
Gemini
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (74%).
Which model is most confident on Osmanli, and which on Akylbek?
All models
On Osmanli: Gemini (74%). On Akylbek: ChatGPT (33%).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
No.
ChatGPT
Pick
Osmanli
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Osmanli by KO/TKO, about 25 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Osmanli 67%, Akylbek 33%.
Most likely outcomes
- Osmanli by KO/TKO25%
- Osmanli by submission24%
- Akylbek by decision19%
- KO/TKO: Osmanli 25%, Akylbek 4%.
- Submission: Osmanli 24%, Akylbek 10%.
- Decision: Osmanli 18%, Akylbek 19%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 33%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Osmanli: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 28%.
Gemini
Osmanli: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 26%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Osmanli by KO/TKO: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Osmanli by submission: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Gemini
Osmanli by submission: 32% (about 32 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%); 2. Osmanli by submission (24%); 3. Akylbek by decision (19%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Osmanli by submission (35%); 2. Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Akylbek by decision (15%)
Gemini
1. Osmanli by submission (32%); 2. Osmanli by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Osmanli by decision (20%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 67% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 72% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 74% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 63%. Decision: 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 73%. Decision: 27%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
How does Osmanli win?
ChatGPT
Osmanli wins 67%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 24%, decision 18%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Osmanli wins 72%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 35%, decision 12%.
Gemini
Osmanli wins 74%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 32%, decision 20%.
How does Akylbek win?
ChatGPT
Akylbek wins 33%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 10%, decision 19%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Akylbek wins 28%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%, decision 15%.
Gemini
Akylbek wins 26%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 6%, decision 14%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (19%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (15%).
Gemini
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (14%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Osmanli.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by submission (35%).
Gemini
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by submission (32%).
More questions (15)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 29%, submission 34%, decision 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 30%, submission 43%, decision 27%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 38%, decision 34%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 49%, against 14% for Akylbek.
Other models' answers
Claude
Osmanli: 60%, against 13% for Akylbek.
Gemini
Osmanli: 54%, against 12% for Akylbek.
Can Osmanli get the finish? Can Akylbek?
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 49% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 24%). Akylbek: 14% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 10%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Osmanli: 60% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 35%). Akylbek: 13% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%).
Gemini
Osmanli: 54% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 32%). Akylbek: 12% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Osmanli is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 10%. Akylbek is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 24%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Osmanli is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 8%. Akylbek is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 35%.
Gemini
Osmanli is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 6%. Akylbek is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 32%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Akylbek wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Akylbek wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Akylbek wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
27%.
Gemini
34%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 49%, Akylbek 51%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 44%, Akylbek 56%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 59%, Akylbek 41%.
Compared with others 2 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (67%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (72%).
Gemini
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (74%).
Which model is most confident on Osmanli, and which on Akylbek?
ChatGPT
On Osmanli: Gemini (74%). On Akylbek: ChatGPT (33%).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Osmanli
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Osmanli by submission, about 35 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Osmanli 72%, Akylbek 28%.
Most likely outcomes
- Osmanli by submission35%
- Osmanli by KO/TKO25%
- Akylbek by decision15%
- KO/TKO: Osmanli 25%, Akylbek 5%.
- Submission: Osmanli 35%, Akylbek 8%.
- Decision: Osmanli 12%, Akylbek 15%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Osmanli: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 33%.
Gemini
Osmanli: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 26%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Osmanli by submission: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli by KO/TKO: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Gemini
Osmanli by submission: 32% (about 32 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Osmanli by submission (35%); 2. Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Akylbek by decision (15%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%); 2. Osmanli by submission (24%); 3. Akylbek by decision (19%)
Gemini
1. Osmanli by submission (32%); 2. Osmanli by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Osmanli by decision (20%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 72% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 67% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 74% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 73%. Decision: 27%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 63%. Decision: 37%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
How does Osmanli win?
Claude
Osmanli wins 72%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 35%, decision 12%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli wins 67%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 24%, decision 18%.
Gemini
Osmanli wins 74%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 32%, decision 20%.
How does Akylbek win?
Claude
Akylbek wins 28%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%, decision 15%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Akylbek wins 33%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 10%, decision 19%.
Gemini
Akylbek wins 26%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 6%, decision 14%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (15%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (19%).
Gemini
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (14%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Osmanli.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by submission (35%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%).
Gemini
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by submission (32%).
More questions (15)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 30%, submission 43%, decision 27%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 29%, submission 34%, decision 37%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 38%, decision 34%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Osmanli: 60%, against 13% for Akylbek.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 49%, against 14% for Akylbek.
Gemini
Osmanli: 54%, against 12% for Akylbek.
Can Osmanli get the finish? Can Akylbek?
Claude
Osmanli: 60% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 35%). Akylbek: 13% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 49% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 24%). Akylbek: 14% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 10%).
Gemini
Osmanli: 54% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 32%). Akylbek: 12% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Osmanli is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 8%. Akylbek is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 35%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 10%. Akylbek is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 24%.
Gemini
Osmanli is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 6%. Akylbek is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 32%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Akylbek wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Akylbek wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Akylbek wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
27%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
37%.
Gemini
34%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 44%, Akylbek 56%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 49%, Akylbek 51%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 59%, Akylbek 41%.
Compared with others 2 questions
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (72%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (67%).
Gemini
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (74%).
Which model is most confident on Osmanli, and which on Akylbek?
Claude
On Osmanli: Gemini (74%). On Akylbek: ChatGPT (33%).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
No.
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Osmanli
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Osmanli by submission, about 32 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Osmanli 74%, Akylbek 26%.
Most likely outcomes
- Osmanli by submission32%
- Osmanli by KO/TKO22%
- Osmanli by decision20%
- KO/TKO: Osmanli 22%, Akylbek 6%.
- Submission: Osmanli 32%, Akylbek 6%.
- Decision: Osmanli 20%, Akylbek 14%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Osmanli: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 33%.
Claude
Osmanli: 72% (about 72 in 100 fights). Akylbek: 28%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Osmanli by submission: 32% (about 32 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli by KO/TKO: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Claude
Osmanli by submission: 35% (about 35 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Osmanli by submission (32%); 2. Osmanli by KO/TKO (22%); 3. Osmanli by decision (20%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%); 2. Osmanli by submission (24%); 3. Akylbek by decision (19%)
Claude
1. Osmanli by submission (35%); 2. Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%); 3. Akylbek by decision (15%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 74% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 67% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on Osmanli's 72% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 63%. Decision: 37%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 73%. Decision: 27%.
How does Osmanli win?
Gemini
Osmanli wins 74%: KO/TKO 22%, submission 32%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli wins 67%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 24%, decision 18%.
Claude
Osmanli wins 72%: KO/TKO 25%, submission 35%, decision 12%.
How does Akylbek win?
Gemini
Akylbek wins 26%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 6%, decision 14%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Akylbek wins 33%: KO/TKO 4%, submission 10%, decision 19%.
Claude
Akylbek wins 28%: KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%, decision 15%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (14%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (19%).
Claude
Akylbek's most likely upset: Akylbek by decision (15%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Osmanli.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 5 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by submission (32%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by KO/TKO (25%).
Claude
Result: Akylbek by KO/TKO in round 1. Akylbek by KO/TKO was the model's number 6 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Osmanli by submission (35%).
More questions (16)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 28%, submission 38%, decision 34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 29%, submission 34%, decision 37%.
Claude
KO/TKO 30%, submission 43%, decision 27%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Osmanli: 54%, against 12% for Akylbek.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 49%, against 14% for Akylbek.
Claude
Osmanli: 60%, against 13% for Akylbek.
Can Osmanli get the finish? Can Akylbek?
Gemini
Osmanli: 54% (KO/TKO 22%, submission 32%). Akylbek: 12% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 6%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli: 49% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 24%). Akylbek: 14% (KO/TKO 4%, submission 10%).
Claude
Osmanli: 60% (KO/TKO 25%, submission 35%). Akylbek: 13% (KO/TKO 5%, submission 8%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Osmanli is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 6%. Akylbek is knocked out in 22% and submitted in 32%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Osmanli is knocked out in 4% and submitted in 10%. Akylbek is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 24%.
Claude
Osmanli is knocked out in 5% and submitted in 8%. Akylbek is knocked out in 25% and submitted in 35%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Claude
Lopsided: 72% vs 28%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Akylbek wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Akylbek wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Akylbek wins 28% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
37%.
Claude
27%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 59%, Akylbek 41%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 49%, Akylbek 51%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Osmanli 44%, Akylbek 56%.
Compared with others 3 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Osmanli by decision, 20% here against 15% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (74%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (67%).
Claude
Of 18 analyst picks, 16 back Osmanli and 2 back Akylbek. This model picks Osmanli (72%).
Which model is most confident on Osmanli, and which on Akylbek?
Gemini
On Osmanli: Gemini (74%). On Akylbek: ChatGPT (33%).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
No.
Version not reported · 26 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
73%
Mahammadali Osmanli
27%
Ilimbek Akylbek
Favoured: Osmanli (73%) Upset
Akylbek defeats Osmanli · DQ R1
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