"It solidifies what I always knew to be true — that I belong here." En route to his first UFC win, Christian Edwards earned more than just a victory at #UFCVegas121 Prelim Results ➡️ https://t.co/PrGJB0jNWF Scorecards ➡️ https://t.co/5t667X4q4Q
View video on X ↗Christian Edwards defeats Rodolfo Bellato by KO/TKO
KO/TKO · left hook
Round 3 · 1:47
Bellato vs Edwards — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(18) 82%
18% (4)
AI Predictions
64%
36%
Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right nowBook prices available in Market
Checking latest live market odds.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Bellato used pressure and clinch work early, including a knockdown that gave him the first-round advantage.
Edwards adjusted with kicks and cleaner distance attacks, then continued to make Bellato work in the clinch.
Edwards landed the decisive jab and left hook in the third round and finished at 1:47.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos prelim results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Bellato
Bellato brings a broad MMA game into this light heavyweight matchup. His route is to combine pressure with varied attacks and make Edwards defend across more than one phase.
Case for Edwards
Edwards has a Jackson-Wink MMA background and a long light heavyweight frame. His route is to use distance and straight attacks to keep Bellato from building sustained pressure.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Bellato can turn pressure into control.
- How Edwards uses range against Bellato's entries.
- Which fighter wins the first extended exchange.
Records & career stats
- 13-3-1
- Record
- 8-5-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- Brazil
- Nationality
- United States
- 30
- Age
- 27
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 92%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- 94%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 09:20
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 15:00
- Kioshi Jiu-Jitsu
- Team
- Jackson Wink MMA Academy - NM
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(18) 82%
LBellato
18% (4)
EdwardsW
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · Dec
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
FightIQ's public record lists Rodolfo Bellato as its pick over Christian Edwards.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Bellato's durability and proven striking will outlast Edwards despite Edwards' sharpness on the feet.
“So, I'm going to go Bolato here.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · Dec
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Picks Rodolfo Bellato by decision.
“Bolato probably by a greasy greasy decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Drake Burden picks Rodolfo Bellato.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
KingofCrackdown5095
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · Sub · Round 2
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
KingofCrackdown5095 picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round submission over Christian Edwards.
“So in this one, I got Rafal Bolato via second round submission.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 63 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 58.7% (37 hit, 26 miss, across 63 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 65.6% (21 hit, 11 miss, across 32 method-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 42.1% (8 hit, 11 miss, across 19 round-scored calls on 63 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 63 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 58.7% 37 26
- Method Accuracy 65.6% 21 11
- Round Accuracy 42.1% 8 11
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Picks Rodolfo Bellato by knockout.
“Give me Bato to win by KO relatively early.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Jon Litterine picks Rodolfo Bellato.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Fight Productions picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round knockout over Christian Edwards.
“I'm gonna go with Bellato to win this one by round two knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · Dec
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Picks Rodolfo Bellato.
“I'm going to pick Rodalo Bato to win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Greedo Plays MMA picks Rodolfo Bellato by first-round KO/TKO over Christian Edwards.
“I'm gonna go with Bellato here. First-round knockout victory over Christian Edwards.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Real knockout power and durability; opponent gets hit frequently.
“Give me Bellato money line as the third most confident pick. But on topology, I'm going to go Bato by KO. And I did put Belatoto by KO in the parlay section.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Rparqs
Current pick evidence
Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO · Round 1
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Picks Rodolfo Bellato.
“give me the tractor to win this fight uh by knockout in the first round.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Edwards · Dec
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Angelo picks Christian Edwards by decision; the adjacent six-foot-five Edwards breakdown identifies the transcript's bigger-dude selection despite Bellato name variants.
“I expect this probably to go to a decision. Maybe that's the worst call in the world. I'll take the bigger dude who I haven't seen pretend to be hurt to get out of a fight. I'll take him. He'll be the pick here.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Edwards · Dec
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Picks Christian Edwards by decision.
“Christian Edwards v decision will be my official prediction.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Edwards
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Picks Christian Edwards.
“I'm actually going to go with Christian Edwards here against Ralpho Bolato.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
Guy Bruhn
Current pick evidence
Picked: Christian Edwards
Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO
Guy Bruhn picks Christian Edwards.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.6% (10 hit, 11 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.6% 10 11
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Analyst picks: FightIQ Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Hit; Drake Burden Miss; James Blissett Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; MikesMMAPicks Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Guy Bruhn Hit; Uselyis Miss; Chris White Miss; Rparqs Miss.
Only 4 of 22 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Edwards · KO/TKO · R3
Closest probability ChatGPT and Gemini put 37% on Edwards.
63%
Bellato
37%
Edwards
PickBellato · KO/TKO · R2ActualEdwards · KO/TKO · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
67%
Bellato
33%
Edwards
PickBellato · KO/TKO · R2ActualEdwards · KO/TKO · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
63%
Bellato
37%
Edwards
PickBellato · KO/TKO · R2ActualEdwards · KO/TKO · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Bellato
Most likely: Bellato by KO/TKO, about 30 in 100
Win chance: Bellato 63%, Edwards 37%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Bellato
Most likely: Bellato by KO/TKO, about 35 in 100
Win chance: Bellato 67%, Edwards 33%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Bellato
Most likely: Bellato by KO/TKO, about 40 in 100
Win chance: Bellato 63%, Edwards 37%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
3 of 3 models pick Bellato.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Bellato: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Edwards: 37%.
Claude
Bellato: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Edwards: 33%.
Gemini
Bellato: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Edwards: 37%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Bellato by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Claude
Bellato by KO/TKO: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Gemini
Bellato by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Bellato by decision (25%); 3. Edwards by decision (20%)
Claude
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (35%); 2. Bellato by decision (19%); 3. Edwards by decision (15%)
Gemini
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Edwards by decision (20%); 3. Bellato by decision (14%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Bellato's 63% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on Bellato's 67% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Bellato's 63% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
How does Bellato win?
ChatGPT
Bellato wins 63%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 8%, decision 25%.
Claude
Bellato wins 67%: KO/TKO 35%, submission 13%, decision 19%.
Gemini
Bellato wins 63%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 9%, decision 14%.
How does Edwards win?
ChatGPT
Edwards wins 37%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%, decision 20%.
Claude
Edwards wins 33%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 15%.
Gemini
Edwards wins 37%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 6%, decision 20%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Edwards's most likely upset: Edwards by decision (20%).
Claude
Edwards's most likely upset: Edwards by decision (15%).
Gemini
Edwards's most likely upset: Edwards by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Bellato.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (30%).
Claude
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (35%).
Gemini
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (40%).
More questions (17)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 44%, submission 11%, decision 45%.
Claude
KO/TKO 48%, submission 18%, decision 34%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 51%, submission 15%, decision 34%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Bellato: 38%, against 17% for Edwards.
Claude
Bellato: 48%, against 18% for Edwards.
Gemini
Bellato: 49%, against 17% for Edwards.
Can Bellato get the finish? Can Edwards?
ChatGPT
Bellato: 38% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 8%). Edwards: 17% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%).
Claude
Bellato: 48% (KO/TKO 35%, submission 13%). Edwards: 18% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Bellato: 49% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 9%). Edwards: 17% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Bellato is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 3%. Edwards is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 8%.
Claude
Bellato is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%. Edwards is knocked out in 35% and submitted in 13%.
Gemini
Bellato is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 6%. Edwards is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 9%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Claude
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Edwards wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Edwards wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Edwards wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
45%.
Claude
34%.
Gemini
34%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Bellato 56%, Edwards 44%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Bellato 56%, Edwards 44%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Bellato 41%, Edwards 59%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Bellato by decision, 25% here against 17% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Edwards by decision, 15% here against 20% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Bellato by decision, 14% here against 22% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 22 analyst picks, 18 back Bellato and 4 back Edwards. This model picks Bellato (63%).
Claude
Of 22 analyst picks, 18 back Bellato and 4 back Edwards. This model picks Bellato (67%).
Gemini
Of 22 analyst picks, 18 back Bellato and 4 back Edwards. This model picks Bellato (63%).
Which model is most confident on Bellato, and which on Edwards?
All models
On Bellato: Claude (67%). On Edwards: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Bellato by decision: from 14% (Gemini) to 25% (ChatGPT).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
No.
ChatGPT
Pick
Bellato
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Bellato by KO/TKO, about 30 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Bellato 63%, Edwards 37%.
Most likely outcomes
- Bellato by KO/TKO30%
- Bellato by decision25%
- Edwards by decision20%
- KO/TKO: Bellato 30%, Edwards 14%.
- Submission: Bellato 8%, Edwards 3%.
- Decision: Bellato 25%, Edwards 20%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Bellato: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Edwards: 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Bellato: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Edwards: 33%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Bellato by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Bellato by KO/TKO: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Gemini
Bellato by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Bellato by decision (25%); 3. Edwards by decision (20%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (35%); 2. Bellato by decision (19%); 3. Edwards by decision (15%)
Gemini
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Edwards by decision (20%); 3. Bellato by decision (14%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Bellato's 63% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
7 of 10, based on Bellato's 67% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
How does Bellato win?
ChatGPT
Bellato wins 63%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 8%, decision 25%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Bellato wins 67%: KO/TKO 35%, submission 13%, decision 19%.
Gemini
Bellato wins 63%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 9%, decision 14%.
How does Edwards win?
ChatGPT
Edwards wins 37%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Edwards wins 33%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 15%.
Gemini
Edwards wins 37%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 6%, decision 20%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Edwards's most likely upset: Edwards by decision (20%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Edwards's most likely upset: Edwards by decision (15%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Bellato.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (30%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (35%).
Gemini
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (40%).
More questions (17)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 44%, submission 11%, decision 45%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 48%, submission 18%, decision 34%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 51%, submission 15%, decision 34%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Bellato: 38%, against 17% for Edwards.
Other models' answers
Claude
Bellato: 48%, against 18% for Edwards.
Gemini
Bellato: 49%, against 17% for Edwards.
Can Bellato get the finish? Can Edwards?
ChatGPT
Bellato: 38% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 8%). Edwards: 17% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Bellato: 48% (KO/TKO 35%, submission 13%). Edwards: 18% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Bellato: 49% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 9%). Edwards: 17% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Bellato is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 3%. Edwards is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 8%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Bellato is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%. Edwards is knocked out in 35% and submitted in 13%.
Gemini
Bellato is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 6%. Edwards is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 9%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Edwards wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Edwards wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
45%.
Other models' answers
Claude
34%.
Gemini
34%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Bellato 56%, Edwards 44%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Bellato 41%, Edwards 59%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Bellato by decision, 25% here against 17% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: Edwards by decision, 15% here against 20% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Bellato by decision, 14% here against 22% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 22 analyst picks, 18 back Bellato and 4 back Edwards. This model picks Bellato (63%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 22 analyst picks, 18 back Bellato and 4 back Edwards. This model picks Bellato (67%).
Which model is most confident on Bellato, and which on Edwards?
ChatGPT
On Bellato: Claude (67%). On Edwards: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Bellato by decision: from 14% (Gemini) to 25% (ChatGPT).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
No.
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Bellato
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Bellato by KO/TKO, about 35 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Bellato 67%, Edwards 33%.
Most likely outcomes
- Bellato by KO/TKO35%
- Bellato by decision19%
- Edwards by decision15%
- KO/TKO: Bellato 35%, Edwards 13%.
- Submission: Bellato 13%, Edwards 5%.
- Decision: Bellato 19%, Edwards 15%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Bellato: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Edwards: 33%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Edwards: 37%.
Gemini
Bellato: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Edwards: 37%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Bellato by KO/TKO: 35% (about 35 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Gemini
Bellato by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (35%); 2. Bellato by decision (19%); 3. Edwards by decision (15%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Bellato by decision (25%); 3. Edwards by decision (20%)
Gemini
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Edwards by decision (20%); 3. Bellato by decision (14%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
7 of 10, based on Bellato's 67% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Bellato's 63% win chance.
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Bellato's 63% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
How does Bellato win?
Claude
Bellato wins 67%: KO/TKO 35%, submission 13%, decision 19%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato wins 63%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 8%, decision 25%.
Gemini
Bellato wins 63%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 9%, decision 14%.
How does Edwards win?
Claude
Edwards wins 33%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 15%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Edwards wins 37%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Edwards wins 37%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 6%, decision 20%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Edwards's most likely upset: Edwards by decision (15%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Edwards's most likely upset: Edwards by decision (20%).
Gemini
Edwards's most likely upset: Edwards by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Bellato.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (35%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (30%).
Gemini
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (40%).
More questions (17)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 48%, submission 18%, decision 34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 44%, submission 11%, decision 45%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 51%, submission 15%, decision 34%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Bellato: 48%, against 18% for Edwards.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato: 38%, against 17% for Edwards.
Gemini
Bellato: 49%, against 17% for Edwards.
Can Bellato get the finish? Can Edwards?
Claude
Bellato: 48% (KO/TKO 35%, submission 13%). Edwards: 18% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato: 38% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 8%). Edwards: 17% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%).
Gemini
Bellato: 49% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 9%). Edwards: 17% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Bellato is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%. Edwards is knocked out in 35% and submitted in 13%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 3%. Edwards is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 8%.
Gemini
Bellato is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 6%. Edwards is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 9%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Edwards wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Edwards wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Edwards wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
45%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Bellato 56%, Edwards 44%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Bellato 41%, Edwards 59%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Edwards by decision, 15% here against 20% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Bellato by decision, 25% here against 17% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Bellato by decision, 14% here against 22% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 22 analyst picks, 18 back Bellato and 4 back Edwards. This model picks Bellato (67%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 22 analyst picks, 18 back Bellato and 4 back Edwards. This model picks Bellato (63%).
Gemini
Of 22 analyst picks, 18 back Bellato and 4 back Edwards. This model picks Bellato (63%).
Which model is most confident on Bellato, and which on Edwards?
Claude
On Bellato: Claude (67%). On Edwards: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Bellato by decision: from 14% (Gemini) to 25% (ChatGPT).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
No.
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Bellato
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Bellato by KO/TKO, about 40 in 100
The model's predicted finish round: 2.
Win chance: Bellato 63%, Edwards 37%.
Most likely outcomes
- Bellato by KO/TKO40%
- Edwards by decision20%
- Bellato by decision14%
- KO/TKO: Bellato 40%, Edwards 11%.
- Submission: Bellato 9%, Edwards 6%.
- Decision: Bellato 14%, Edwards 20%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Bellato: 63% (about 63 in 100 fights). Edwards: 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Bellato: 67% (about 67 in 100 fights). Edwards: 33%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Bellato by KO/TKO: 40% (about 40 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato by KO/TKO: 30% (about 30 in 100).
Claude
Bellato by KO/TKO: 35% (about 35 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (40%); 2. Edwards by decision (20%); 3. Bellato by decision (14%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (30%); 2. Bellato by decision (25%); 3. Edwards by decision (20%)
Claude
1. Bellato by KO/TKO (35%); 2. Bellato by decision (19%); 3. Edwards by decision (15%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
6 of 10, based on Bellato's 63% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
7 of 10, based on Bellato's 67% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 66%. Decision: 34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
How does Bellato win?
Gemini
Bellato wins 63%: KO/TKO 40%, submission 9%, decision 14%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato wins 63%: KO/TKO 30%, submission 8%, decision 25%.
Claude
Bellato wins 67%: KO/TKO 35%, submission 13%, decision 19%.
How does Edwards win?
Gemini
Edwards wins 37%: KO/TKO 11%, submission 6%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Edwards wins 37%: KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%, decision 20%.
Claude
Edwards wins 33%: KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%, decision 15%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Edwards's most likely upset: Edwards by decision (20%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Edwards's most likely upset: Edwards by decision (15%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Bellato.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (40%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (30%).
Claude
Result: Edwards by KO/TKO in round 3. Edwards by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 4 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Bellato by KO/TKO (35%).
More questions (17)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 51%, submission 15%, decision 34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 44%, submission 11%, decision 45%.
Claude
KO/TKO 48%, submission 18%, decision 34%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Bellato: 49%, against 17% for Edwards.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato: 38%, against 17% for Edwards.
Claude
Bellato: 48%, against 18% for Edwards.
Can Bellato get the finish? Can Edwards?
Gemini
Bellato: 49% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 9%). Edwards: 17% (KO/TKO 11%, submission 6%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato: 38% (KO/TKO 30%, submission 8%). Edwards: 17% (KO/TKO 14%, submission 3%).
Claude
Bellato: 48% (KO/TKO 35%, submission 13%). Edwards: 18% (KO/TKO 13%, submission 5%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Bellato is knocked out in 11% and submitted in 6%. Edwards is knocked out in 40% and submitted in 9%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Bellato is knocked out in 14% and submitted in 3%. Edwards is knocked out in 30% and submitted in 8%.
Claude
Bellato is knocked out in 13% and submitted in 5%. Edwards is knocked out in 35% and submitted in 13%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 63% vs 37%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Lopsided: 67% vs 33%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Edwards wins 37% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Edwards wins 33% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
34%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
45%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Bellato 41%, Edwards 59%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Bellato 56%, Edwards 44%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Bellato 56%, Edwards 44%.
Compared with others 4 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Bellato by decision, 14% here against 22% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Bellato by decision, 25% here against 17% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Edwards by decision, 15% here against 20% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 22 analyst picks, 18 back Bellato and 4 back Edwards. This model picks Bellato (63%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 22 analyst picks, 18 back Bellato and 4 back Edwards. This model picks Bellato (67%).
Which model is most confident on Bellato, and which on Edwards?
Gemini
On Bellato: Claude (67%). On Edwards: ChatGPT and Gemini, tied (37%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Bellato by decision: from 14% (Gemini) to 25% (ChatGPT).
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
No.
Version not reported · 26 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
Market Odds
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