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View video on X ↗Valesca Machado defeats Melissa Amaya by KO/TKO
Amaya vs Machado — Women's Strawweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(8) 44%
56% (10)
AI Predictions
39%
61%
Market Odds
36%
64%
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Amaya and Machado exchanged measured attacks early, with Machado finding the cleaner openings as the first round developed.
Machado dropped Amaya late in the opening round and carried the pressure into the second.
Machado finished the fight with strikes at 3:19 of round two for the official TKO win.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos main card results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Amaya
Amaya is unbeaten through eight professional fights, five of them finishes — three by knockout or TKO and two by submission — and her last two wins have both come by TKO. Her route against a veteran counter-puncher is to keep pushing that finishing pace early rather than let Machado turn this into the grinding, decision-heavy fight that has defined most of Machado's career.
Case for Machado
Machado brings a 15-4 professional record built mostly on decisions — nine of her fifteen wins have gone the distance — plus a career strike output of 2.40 significant strikes landed per minute by the UFC's own tracking. All four of her losses have also gone to the judges' scorecards, so her test is proving she can out-work Amaya over three rounds rather than get caught by the kind of finish that has closed out five of Amaya's eight wins.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Amaya's finishing rate — five finishes in eight pro wins — catches Machado before the fight reaches deep water.
- Whether Machado's higher volume (2.40 significant strikes landed per minute) grinds out the rounds the way nine of her fifteen career wins have.
- Whether Amaya's unbeaten record survives its first test against a 15-fight veteran.
- Whether the fight ends the way most of Machado's fights have — on the scorecards — or the way most of Amaya's have — with a finish.
Records & career stats
- 8-0-0
- Record
- 15-4-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 31
- Age
- 30
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- Not published
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 77%
- 08:19
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 15:00
- Sik-Jitsu Spokane, WA
- Team
- Team Alpha Male
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
After the fight
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(8) 44%
LAmaya
56% (10)
MachadoW
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Amaya
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Drake Burden picks Melissa Amaya.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Amaya
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Amaya · Dec
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Amaya · Dec
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Greedo Plays MMA picks Melissa Amaya by decision over Valesca Machado.
“Hesitantly I'll go Melissa Amaya. I'll take Melissa Amaya by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Amaya
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Amaya
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
From parlay combination with other confident picks.
“Melissa Amaya Osman Lee and Barcelos all money line plus 785”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Chris Cross
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Amaya · Dec
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Chris Cross picks Melissa Amaya by decision while noting limited information on the matchup.
“I think Amaya will pull this thing out … by decision.”
* Chris Cross notes limited information on the matchup.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 40.0% (8 hit, 12 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 20 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: Melissa Amaya
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: Valesca Machado · Dec
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Picks Valesca Machado by decision.
“I am going to go with Tina Black to win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Valesca Machado
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Angelo picks canonical Valesca Machado; the transcript explicitly explains that Tina Black is Machado's nickname/name variant before selecting her.
“I think Tina Black gets the win. I think it's that simple.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: Valesca Machado · Dec
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Picks Valesca Machado by decision.
“Tina Black wins this one via decision as my official prediction.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Valesca Machado · Dec
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Picks Valesca Machado by decision.
“I think she's going to win this fight and win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: Valesca Machado
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Jon Litterine picks Valesca Machado.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Fight Productions picks Valesca Machado by second-round knockout over Melissa Amaya.
“I'm going to take Tina Black to win this one by round two knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: Valesca Machado
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: Valesca Machado
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Picks Valesca Machado.
“Tina Black, but I think that she should get this one done against Melissa Amayo.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Valesca Machado
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: Valesca Machado
Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO
Picks Valesca Machado.
“I'm going to pick Valisa Machado.”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Analyst picks: DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Drake Burden Miss; James Blissett Hit; Artem MMA Hit; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Productions Hit; Chris Schweppe Miss; Cole Shelton Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; MikesMMAPicks Hit; The MMA Yuda Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Uselyis Miss; Chris Cross Miss; Chris White Miss.
10 of 18 called the winner.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Machado · KO/TKO · R2
Closest probability Gemini put 68% on Machado.
39%
Amaya
61%
Machado
PickMachado · DecisionActualMachado · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
45%
Amaya
55%
Machado
PickMachado · DecisionActualMachado · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
32%
Amaya
68%
Machado
PickMachado · DecisionActualMachado · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite callAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Machado
Most likely: Machado by decision, about 46 in 100
Win chance: Amaya 39%, Machado 61%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Machado
Most likely: Machado by decision, about 25 in 100
Win chance: Amaya 45%, Machado 55%.
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Machado
Most likely: Machado by decision, about 50 in 100
Win chance: Amaya 32%, Machado 68%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
3 of 3 models pick Machado.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Machado: 61% (about 61 in 100 fights). Amaya: 39%.
Claude
Machado: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Amaya: 45%.
Gemini
Machado: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Amaya: 32%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Machado by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Claude
Machado by decision: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Gemini
Machado by decision: 50% (about 50 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Machado by decision (46%); 2. Amaya by decision (21%); 3. Machado by KO/TKO (12%)
Claude
1. Machado by decision (25%); 2. Amaya by KO/TKO (20%); 2. Amaya by decision (20%)
Gemini
1. Machado by decision (50%); 2. Amaya by decision (16%); 3. Machado by KO/TKO (12%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Machado's 61% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Machado's 55% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Machado's 68% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 33%. Decision: 67%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.
How does Amaya win?
ChatGPT
Amaya wins 39%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 10%, decision 21%.
Claude
Amaya wins 45%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Amaya wins 32%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%, decision 16%.
How does Machado win?
ChatGPT
Machado wins 61%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 46%.
Claude
Machado wins 55%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 25%.
Gemini
Machado wins 68%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 6%, decision 50%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Amaya's most likely upset: Amaya by decision (21%).
Gemini
Amaya's most likely upset: Amaya by decision (16%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Machado.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (46%).
Claude
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (25%).
Gemini
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (50%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%, decision 67%.
Claude
KO/TKO 40%, submission 15%, decision 45%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 18%, submission 16%, decision 66%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Amaya: 18%, against 15% for Machado.
Claude
Machado: 30%, against 25% for Amaya.
Gemini
Machado: 18%, against 16% for Amaya.
Can Amaya get the finish? Can Machado?
ChatGPT
Amaya: 18% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 10%). Machado: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%).
Claude
Amaya: 25% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%). Machado: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%).
Gemini
Amaya: 16% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%). Machado: 18% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Amaya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%. Machado is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 10%.
Claude
Amaya is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%. Machado is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Amaya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 6%. Machado is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 61% vs 39%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Amaya by decision: 21%. Machado by decision: 46%.
Gemini
Amaya by decision: 16%. Machado by decision: 50%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Amaya wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Amaya wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Amaya wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
67%.
Claude
45%.
Gemini
66%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 31%, Machado 69%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 44%, Machado 56%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 24%, Machado 76%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 46% here against 38% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 25% here against 48% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 50% here against 36% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (61%).
Claude
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (55%).
Gemini
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (68%).
Which model is most confident on Amaya, and which on Machado?
All models
On Amaya: Claude (45%). On Machado: Gemini (68%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Machado by decision: from 25% (Claude) to 50% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
All models
Artem MMA (Machado by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Machado by decision) and James Blissett (Machado by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Machado, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
Claude
Yes, tied for number 2.
Gemini
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Machado
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Machado by decision, about 46 in 100
Win chance: Amaya 39%, Machado 61%.
Most likely outcomes
- Machado by decision46%
- Amaya by decision21%
- Machado by KO/TKO12%
- KO/TKO: Amaya 8%, Machado 12%.
- Submission: Amaya 10%, Machado 3%.
- Decision: Amaya 21%, Machado 46%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Machado: 61% (about 61 in 100 fights). Amaya: 39%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Machado: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Amaya: 45%.
Gemini
Machado: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Amaya: 32%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Machado by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Machado by decision: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Gemini
Machado by decision: 50% (about 50 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Machado by decision (46%); 2. Amaya by decision (21%); 3. Machado by KO/TKO (12%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Machado by decision (25%); 2. Amaya by KO/TKO (20%); 2. Amaya by decision (20%)
Gemini
1. Machado by decision (50%); 2. Amaya by decision (16%); 3. Machado by KO/TKO (12%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Machado's 61% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
6 of 10, based on Machado's 55% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Machado's 68% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 33%. Decision: 67%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.
How does Amaya win?
ChatGPT
Amaya wins 39%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 10%, decision 21%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Amaya wins 45%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Amaya wins 32%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%, decision 16%.
How does Machado win?
ChatGPT
Machado wins 61%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 46%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Machado wins 55%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 25%.
Gemini
Machado wins 68%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 6%, decision 50%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Amaya's most likely upset: Amaya by decision (21%).
Other models' answers
Gemini
Amaya's most likely upset: Amaya by decision (16%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Machado.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (46%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (25%).
Gemini
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (50%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%, decision 67%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 40%, submission 15%, decision 45%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 18%, submission 16%, decision 66%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Amaya: 18%, against 15% for Machado.
Other models' answers
Claude
Machado: 30%, against 25% for Amaya.
Gemini
Machado: 18%, against 16% for Amaya.
Can Amaya get the finish? Can Machado?
ChatGPT
Amaya: 18% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 10%). Machado: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Amaya: 25% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%). Machado: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%).
Gemini
Amaya: 16% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%). Machado: 18% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Amaya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%. Machado is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 10%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Amaya is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%. Machado is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Amaya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 6%. Machado is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 61% vs 39%.
Other models' answers
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Amaya by decision: 21%. Machado by decision: 46%.
Other models' answers
Gemini
Amaya by decision: 16%. Machado by decision: 50%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Amaya wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Amaya wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Amaya wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
67%.
Other models' answers
Claude
45%.
Gemini
66%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 31%, Machado 69%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 44%, Machado 56%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 24%, Machado 76%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 46% here against 38% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 25% here against 48% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 50% here against 36% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (61%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (55%).
Gemini
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (68%).
Which model is most confident on Amaya, and which on Machado?
ChatGPT
On Amaya: Claude (45%). On Machado: Gemini (68%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Machado by decision: from 25% (Claude) to 50% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Artem MMA (Machado by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Machado by decision) and James Blissett (Machado by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Machado, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
Other models' answers
Claude
Yes, tied for number 2.
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Machado
Confidence 6 of 10 · Medium
Most likely: Machado by decision, about 25 in 100
Win chance: Amaya 45%, Machado 55%.
Most likely outcomes
- Machado by decision25%
- Amaya by KO/TKO, tied for number 220%
- Amaya by decision, tied for number 220%
- KO/TKO: Amaya 20%, Machado 20%.
- Submission: Amaya 5%, Machado 10%.
- Decision: Amaya 20%, Machado 25%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Machado: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Amaya: 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Machado: 61% (about 61 in 100 fights). Amaya: 39%.
Gemini
Machado: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Amaya: 32%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Machado by decision: 25% (about 25 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Machado by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Gemini
Machado by decision: 50% (about 50 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Machado by decision (25%); 2. Amaya by KO/TKO (20%); 2. Amaya by decision (20%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Machado by decision (46%); 2. Amaya by decision (21%); 3. Machado by KO/TKO (12%)
Gemini
1. Machado by decision (50%); 2. Amaya by decision (16%); 3. Machado by KO/TKO (12%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
6 of 10, based on Machado's 55% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Machado's 61% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Machado's 68% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 33%. Decision: 67%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.
How does Amaya win?
Claude
Amaya wins 45%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya wins 39%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 10%, decision 21%.
Gemini
Amaya wins 32%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%, decision 16%.
How does Machado win?
Claude
Machado wins 55%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 25%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Machado wins 61%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 46%.
Gemini
Machado wins 68%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 6%, decision 50%.
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Machado.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (25%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (46%).
Gemini
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (50%).
More questions (18)
The result 6 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 40%, submission 15%, decision 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%, decision 67%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 18%, submission 16%, decision 66%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Machado: 30%, against 25% for Amaya.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya: 18%, against 15% for Machado.
Gemini
Machado: 18%, against 16% for Amaya.
Can Amaya get the finish? Can Machado?
Claude
Amaya: 25% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%). Machado: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya: 18% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 10%). Machado: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%).
Gemini
Amaya: 16% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%). Machado: 18% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 6%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Amaya is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%. Machado is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 5%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%. Machado is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 10%.
Gemini
Amaya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 6%. Machado is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 10%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 61% vs 39%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Amaya wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Gemini
Amaya wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
45%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
67%.
Gemini
66%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 44%, Machado 56%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 31%, Machado 69%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 24%, Machado 76%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 25% here against 48% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 46% here against 38% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 50% here against 36% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (55%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (61%).
Gemini
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (68%).
Which model is most confident on Amaya, and which on Machado?
Claude
On Amaya: Claude (45%). On Machado: Gemini (68%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Machado by decision: from 25% (Claude) to 50% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Claude
Artem MMA (Machado by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Machado by decision) and James Blissett (Machado by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Machado, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes, tied for number 2.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Yes.
Gemini
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Machado
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Machado by decision, about 50 in 100
Win chance: Amaya 32%, Machado 68%.
Most likely outcomes
- Machado by decision50%
- Amaya by decision16%
- Machado by KO/TKO12%
- KO/TKO: Amaya 6%, Machado 12%.
- Submission: Amaya 10%, Machado 6%.
- Decision: Amaya 16%, Machado 50%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Machado: 68% (about 68 in 100 fights). Amaya: 32%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Machado: 61% (about 61 in 100 fights). Amaya: 39%.
Claude
Machado: 55% (about 55 in 100 fights). Amaya: 45%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Machado by decision: 50% (about 50 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Machado by decision: 46% (about 46 in 100).
Claude
Machado by decision: 25% (about 25 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Machado by decision (50%); 2. Amaya by decision (16%); 3. Machado by KO/TKO (12%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Machado by decision (46%); 2. Amaya by decision (21%); 3. Machado by KO/TKO (12%)
Claude
1. Machado by decision (25%); 2. Amaya by KO/TKO (20%); 2. Amaya by decision (20%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Machado's 68% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
6 of 10, based on Machado's 61% win chance.
Claude
6 of 10, based on Machado's 55% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 34%. Decision: 66%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 33%. Decision: 67%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 55%. Decision: 45%.
How does Amaya win?
Gemini
Amaya wins 32%: KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%, decision 16%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya wins 39%: KO/TKO 8%, submission 10%, decision 21%.
Claude
Amaya wins 45%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%, decision 20%.
How does Machado win?
Gemini
Machado wins 68%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 6%, decision 50%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Machado wins 61%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%, decision 46%.
Claude
Machado wins 55%: KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%, decision 25%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Amaya's most likely upset: Amaya by decision (16%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya's most likely upset: Amaya by decision (21%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Machado.
After the fight 1 question
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (50%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's number 3 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (46%).
Claude
Result: Machado by KO/TKO in round 2. Machado by KO/TKO was the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Machado by decision (25%).
More questions (19)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 18%, submission 16%, decision 66%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 20%, submission 13%, decision 67%.
Claude
KO/TKO 40%, submission 15%, decision 45%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Machado: 18%, against 16% for Amaya.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya: 18%, against 15% for Machado.
Claude
Machado: 30%, against 25% for Amaya.
Can Amaya get the finish? Can Machado?
Gemini
Amaya: 16% (KO/TKO 6%, submission 10%). Machado: 18% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 6%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya: 18% (KO/TKO 8%, submission 10%). Machado: 15% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 3%).
Claude
Amaya: 25% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 5%). Machado: 30% (KO/TKO 20%, submission 10%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Amaya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 6%. Machado is knocked out in 6% and submitted in 10%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 3%. Machado is knocked out in 8% and submitted in 10%.
Claude
Amaya is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 10%. Machado is knocked out in 20% and submitted in 5%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 68% vs 32%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
A clear favourite: 61% vs 39%.
Claude
A clear favourite: 55% vs 45%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Amaya by decision: 16%. Machado by decision: 50%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya by decision: 21%. Machado by decision: 46%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Amaya wins 32% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Amaya wins 39% (about 1 in 3 fights): a modest upset.
Claude
Amaya wins 45% (about 1 in 2 fights): a modest upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
66%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
67%.
Claude
45%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 24%, Machado 76%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 31%, Machado 69%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Amaya 44%, Machado 56%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 50% here against 36% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 46% here against 38% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Machado by decision, 25% here against 48% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (68%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (61%).
Claude
Of 18 analyst picks, 8 back Amaya and 10 back Machado. This model picks Machado (55%).
Which model is most confident on Amaya, and which on Machado?
Gemini
On Amaya: Claude (45%). On Machado: Gemini (68%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Machado by decision: from 25% (Claude) to 50% (Gemini).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Artem MMA (Machado by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Machado by decision) and James Blissett (Machado by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Machado, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 1 question
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Other models' answers
Claude
Yes, tied for number 2.
Version not reported · 26 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
Market Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
36%
Melissa Amaya
64%
Valesca Machado
Favoured: Machado (64%) Called it
Machado defeats Amaya · KO/TKO R2
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