“I wanted to prove to myself I could come away with the W.” Level-headed determination provided a path to a hard-fought victory for Alatengheili at #UFCVegas121 Complete Prelim Results ➡️ https://t.co/PrGJB0jNWF Complete Scorecards ➡️ https://t.co/5t667X4q4Q
View video on X ↗Alatengheili defeats John Castaneda by split decision
Split decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Castaneda vs Alatengheili — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(22) 100%
0% (0)
AI Predictions
70%
30%
Market OddsComing soonNo forecast publishedUnavailable right nowBook prices available in Market
Checking latest live market odds.
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Castaneda controlled the early striking exchanges and made the first two rounds a high-volume fight.
Alateng changed the rhythm in the third with takedowns and fence control.
The late adjustment was enough for Alateng to take the official split decision.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos prelim results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Castaneda
Castaneda brings a complete MMA profile and a measurable striking base into this bantamweight matchup. His route is to make the fight multi-phase and punish predictable entries.
Case for Alatengheili
Alateng Heili represents the opposing pressure test. His route is to close space, force physical exchanges and deny Castaneda a comfortable technical rhythm.
What We Were Watching For
- Which bantamweight controls the range.
- How the first clinch exchange changes the pace.
- Whether Castaneda can keep the bout in multiple phases.
Records & career stats
- 4.95 2.82
- 54% 57%
- 5.07 5.12
- 76% 75%
- 67% 44%
- 21-8-1
- Record
- 17-10-2
- 1-3-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- China
- 34
- Age
- 33
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 13:05
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 13:25
- The Academy
- Team
- Red Hawk Academy
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
(22) 100%
LCastaneda
0% (0)
AlatengheiliW
FightIQ
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
FightIQ's public record lists John Castaneda as its pick over Alatengheili.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Castaneda's superior footwork, leg kicks, and movement give him output advantage over Alateng Heili.
“I'm going to go John Castanady here. I think he's going to be a little bit busier.”
Track record: winner called in 101 of 154 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 65.6% (101 hit, 53 miss, across 154 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 60.0% (39 hit, 26 miss, across 65 method-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.7% (5 hit, 9 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 154 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (4 hit, 8 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 154 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 65.6% 101 53
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 39 26
- Round Accuracy 35.7% 5 9
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda by decision.
“I'll pick him to win this fight and win this fight by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 112 of 173 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.7% (112 hit, 61 miss, across 173 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 61.0% (61 hit, 39 miss, across 100 method-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 38.3% (18 hit, 29 miss, across 47 round-scored calls on 173 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.4% (8 hit, 14 miss, across 22 underdog calls on 173 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.7% 112 61
- Method Accuracy 61.0% 61 39
- Round Accuracy 38.3% 18 29
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 8 14
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Angelo picks canonical John Castaneda; the transcript's Castanada/sexy Mexi caption variants are reconciled to the official card.
“I love John Castanada as a fighter. I've picked him many times before and I'm going to pick him here.”
Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.1% (93 hit, 52 miss, across 145 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 method-scored calls on 145 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 34.5% (10 hit, 19 miss, across 29 underdog calls on 145 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Drake Burden picks John Castaneda.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 63.3% (62 hit, 36 miss, across 98 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 46.2% (6 hit, 7 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 98 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 63.3% 62 36
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 6 7
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda by decision.
“I am going to go with him to get the win via decision.”
Track record: winner called in 48 of 79 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.8% (48 hit, 31 miss, across 79 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 54.2% (26 hit, 22 miss, across 48 method-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 round-scored calls on 79 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 41.2% (7 hit, 10 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 79 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.8% 48 31
- Method Accuracy 54.2% 26 22
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog Accuracy 41.2% 7 10
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda by decision.
“So give me Castinator to win by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 95 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.9% (55 hit, 40 miss, across 95 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.8% (30 hit, 17 miss, across 47 method-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 60.0% (6 hit, 4 miss, across 10 round-scored calls on 95 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.5% (4 hit, 13 miss, across 17 underdog calls on 95 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.9% 55 40
- Method Accuracy 63.8% 30 17
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Underdog Accuracy 23.5% 4 13
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.5% (23 hit, 17 miss, across 40 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 method-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 40 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (2 hit, 3 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 40 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Jon Litterine picks John Castaneda.
Track record: winner called in 70 of 124 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.5% (70 hit, 54 miss, across 124 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.0% (7 hit, 18 miss, across 25 underdog calls on 124 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.5% 70 54
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.0% 7 18
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Fight Productions picks John Castaneda by decision over Alateng Heili.
“I'm going to take Castanada to win this one by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 66 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 56.1% (37 hit, 29 miss, across 66 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 75.7% (28 hit, 9 miss, across 37 method-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 41.7% (10 hit, 14 miss, across 24 round-scored calls on 66 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (2 hit, 6 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 66 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 37 29
- Method Accuracy 75.7% 28 9
- Round Accuracy 41.7% 10 14
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 2 6
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Cole Shelton picks John Castaneda.
Track record: winner called in 62 of 116 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 87.5% (7 hit, 1 miss, across 8 method-scored calls on 116 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (3 hit, 15 miss, across 18 underdog calls on 116 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.4% 62 54
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 3 15
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda.
“I'm going to go with John Castanada to get this one done by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 28 of 53 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.8% (28 hit, 25 miss, across 53 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.1% (8 hit, 9 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 71.4% (5 hit, 2 miss, across 7 round-scored calls on 53 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (2 hit, 8 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 53 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 28 25
- Method Accuracy 47.1% 8 9
- Round Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 25 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 52.1% (25 hit, 23 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (3 hit, 6 miss, across 9 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 52.1% 25 23
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda.
“I'm picking John Castanada to win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 30 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.7% (30 hit, 28 miss, across 58 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 method-scored calls on 58 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 40.0% (4 hit, 6 miss, across 10 underdog calls on 58 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 30 28
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Greedo Plays MMA picks John Castaneda by decision over Alateng Heili.
“I'm going to go John Castaneda by decision.”
Track record: winner called in 37 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 51.4% (37 hit, 35 miss, across 72 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 63.3% (19 hit, 11 miss, across 30 method-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 round-scored calls on 72 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 23.1% (3 hit, 10 miss, across 13 underdog calls on 72 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 51.4% 37 35
- Method Accuracy 63.3% 19 11
- Round Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Underdog Accuracy 23.1% 3 10
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 23 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.9% (23 hit, 25 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 28.6% (2 hit, 5 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.9% 23 25
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Guy Bruhn
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Guy Bruhn picks John Castaneda.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 47.6% (10 hit, 11 miss, across 21 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 21 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 47.6% 10 11
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Can mix grappling with pressure and takedowns; opponent is primarily a striker.
“So, give me John Castano money line. I do have them by decision on tapology, but the play, the confident play as the first most confident pick of the week is going to be money line for John Castanada.”
Track record: winner called in 25 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 46.3% (25 hit, 29 miss, across 54 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 52.9% (9 hit, 8 miss, across 17 method-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 100.0% (1 hit, 0 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 54 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 7 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 54 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 46.3% 25 29
- Method Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 7
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Track record: winner called in 19 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 39.6% (19 hit, 29 miss, across 48 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 16.7% (2 hit, 10 miss, across 12 underdog calls on 48 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 39.6% 19 29
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 16.7% 2 10
Rparqs
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda.
“So, I'm taking John Castanada. I like the reach advantage for him.”
Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 37.5% (9 hit, 15 miss, across 24 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 method-scored calls on 24 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No qualifying picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 24 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
FIGHT//AI
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
FIGHT//AI’s selected value bet names John Castaneda.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: FightIQ Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Drake Burden Miss; James Blissett Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; MikesMMAPicks Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Guy Bruhn Miss; Uselyis Miss; Chris White Miss; Rparqs Miss; FIGHT//AI Miss.
Only 0 of 22 called the upset.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
| Expand row |
|---|
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Each agent’s latest pre-fight call vs result; forecast dates may differ. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Alatengheili · Decision · R3
Closest probability Claude put 35% on Alatengheili.
70%
Castaneda
30%
Alatengheili
PickCastaneda · DecisionActualAlatengheili · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
65%
Castaneda
35%
Alatengheili
PickCastaneda · DecisionActualAlatengheili · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
74%
Castaneda
26%
Alatengheili
PickCastaneda · DecisionActualAlatengheili · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedAI Predictions — latest pre-fight calls
Frozen final publication identity; the calls below retain each agent’s own publication.AI Predictions
Each agent’s latest pre-fight forecast. Dates are shown per agent.
ChatGPT
63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Castaneda
Most likely: Castaneda by decision, about 53 in 100
Win chance: Castaneda 70%, Alatengheili 30%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Claude
61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Pick Castaneda
Most likely: Castaneda by decision, about 42 in 100
Win chance: Castaneda 65%, Alatengheili 35%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Gemini
68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
Pick Castaneda
Most likely: Castaneda by decision, about 52 in 100
Win chance: Castaneda 74%, Alatengheili 26%.
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
3 of 3 models pick Castaneda.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 30%.
Claude
Castaneda: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 35%.
Gemini
Castaneda: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 26%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Castaneda by decision: 53% (about 53 in 100).
Claude
Castaneda by decision: 42% (about 42 in 100).
Gemini
Castaneda by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Castaneda by decision (53%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (20%); 3. Castaneda by KO/TKO (12%)
Claude
1. Castaneda by decision (42%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (20%); 3. Castaneda by KO/TKO (15%)
Gemini
1. Castaneda by decision (52%); 2. Castaneda by KO/TKO (17%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (17%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 70% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 65% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 74% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 27%. Decision: 73%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 31%. Decision: 69%.
How does Castaneda win?
ChatGPT
Castaneda wins 70%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 53%.
Claude
Castaneda wins 65%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 8%, decision 42%.
Gemini
Castaneda wins 74%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 5%, decision 52%.
How does Alatengheili win?
ChatGPT
Alatengheili wins 30%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%, decision 20%.
Claude
Alatengheili wins 35%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 5%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Alatengheili wins 26%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 17%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Alatengheili's most likely upset: Alatengheili by decision (20%).
Claude
Alatengheili's most likely upset: Alatengheili by decision (20%).
Gemini
Alatengheili's most likely upset: Alatengheili by decision (17%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
All models
The models agree: all 3 pick Castaneda.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (53%).
Claude
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (42%).
Gemini
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (52%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
20% (about 20 in 100).
Claude
20% (about 20 in 100).
Gemini
17% (about 17 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 21%, submission 6%, decision 73%.
Claude
KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%, decision 62%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 24%, submission 7%, decision 69%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 17%, against 10% for Alatengheili.
Claude
Castaneda: 23%, against 15% for Alatengheili.
Gemini
Castaneda: 22%, against 9% for Alatengheili.
Can Castaneda get the finish? Can Alatengheili?
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Alatengheili: 10% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%).
Claude
Castaneda: 23% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 8%). Alatengheili: 15% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Castaneda: 22% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 5%). Alatengheili: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Castaneda is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 1%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.
Claude
Castaneda is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 5%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 8%.
Gemini
Castaneda is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 5%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.
Claude
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Castaneda by decision: 53%. Alatengheili by decision: 20%.
Claude
Castaneda by decision: 42%. Alatengheili by decision: 20%.
Gemini
Castaneda by decision: 52%. Alatengheili by decision: 17%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Alatengheili wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Alatengheili wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Alatengheili wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
73%.
Claude
62%.
Gemini
69%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 73%, Alatengheili 27%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 68%, Alatengheili 32%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 75%, Alatengheili 25%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 53% here against 47% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 42% here against 53% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 52% here against 48% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (70%).
Claude
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (65%).
Gemini
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (74%).
Which model is most confident on Castaneda, and which on Alatengheili?
All models
On Castaneda: Gemini (74%). On Alatengheili: Claude (35%).
Where do the models disagree most?
All models
Castaneda by decision: from 42% (Claude) to 53% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
All models
Chris Schweppe (Castaneda by decision), Fight Productions (Castaneda by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Castaneda by decision), Artem MMA (Castaneda by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Castaneda by decision), James Blissett (Castaneda by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (Castaneda by decision) and FightIQ (Castaneda by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Castaneda, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
All models
ChatGPT and Claude, tied: each gave the actual result 20%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
All models
Yes.
ChatGPT
Pick
Castaneda
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Castaneda by decision, about 53 in 100
Win chance: Castaneda 70%, Alatengheili 30%.
Most likely outcomes
- Castaneda by decision53%
- Alatengheili by decision20%
- Castaneda by KO/TKO12%
- KO/TKO: Castaneda 12%, Alatengheili 9%.
- Submission: Castaneda 5%, Alatengheili 1%.
- Decision: Castaneda 53%, Alatengheili 20%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 30%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Castaneda: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 35%.
Gemini
Castaneda: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 26%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
ChatGPT
Castaneda by decision: 53% (about 53 in 100).
Other models' answers
Claude
Castaneda by decision: 42% (about 42 in 100).
Gemini
Castaneda by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
ChatGPT
1. Castaneda by decision (53%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (20%); 3. Castaneda by KO/TKO (12%)
Other models' answers
Claude
1. Castaneda by decision (42%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (20%); 3. Castaneda by KO/TKO (15%)
Gemini
1. Castaneda by decision (52%); 2. Castaneda by KO/TKO (17%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (17%)
How confident is the model?
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 70% win chance.
Other models' answers
Claude
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 65% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 74% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 27%. Decision: 73%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 31%. Decision: 69%.
How does Castaneda win?
ChatGPT
Castaneda wins 70%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 53%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Castaneda wins 65%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 8%, decision 42%.
Gemini
Castaneda wins 74%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 5%, decision 52%.
How does Alatengheili win?
ChatGPT
Alatengheili wins 30%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Alatengheili wins 35%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 5%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Alatengheili wins 26%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 17%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
ChatGPT
Alatengheili's most likely upset: Alatengheili by decision (20%).
Other models' answers
Gemini
Alatengheili's most likely upset: Alatengheili by decision (17%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
ChatGPT
The models agree: all 3 pick Castaneda.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
ChatGPT
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (53%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (42%).
Gemini
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (52%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
ChatGPT
20% (about 20 in 100).
Other models' answers
Gemini
17% (about 17 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 21%, submission 6%, decision 73%.
Other models' answers
Claude
KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%, decision 62%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 24%, submission 7%, decision 69%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 17%, against 10% for Alatengheili.
Other models' answers
Claude
Castaneda: 23%, against 15% for Alatengheili.
Gemini
Castaneda: 22%, against 9% for Alatengheili.
Can Castaneda get the finish? Can Alatengheili?
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Alatengheili: 10% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Castaneda: 23% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 8%). Alatengheili: 15% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 5%).
Gemini
Castaneda: 22% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 5%). Alatengheili: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
ChatGPT
Castaneda is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 1%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Castaneda is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 5%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 8%.
Gemini
Castaneda is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 5%.
How lopsided is this fight?
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
ChatGPT
Castaneda by decision: 53%. Alatengheili by decision: 20%.
Other models' answers
Claude
Castaneda by decision: 42%. Alatengheili by decision: 20%.
Gemini
Castaneda by decision: 52%. Alatengheili by decision: 17%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
ChatGPT
Alatengheili wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
Claude
Alatengheili wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Alatengheili wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
ChatGPT
73%.
Other models' answers
Claude
62%.
Gemini
69%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 73%, Alatengheili 27%.
Other models' answers
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 68%, Alatengheili 32%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 75%, Alatengheili 25%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 53% here against 47% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
Claude
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 42% here against 53% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 52% here against 48% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
ChatGPT
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (70%).
Other models' answers
Claude
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (65%).
Gemini
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (74%).
Which model is most confident on Castaneda, and which on Alatengheili?
ChatGPT
On Castaneda: Gemini (74%). On Alatengheili: Claude (35%).
Where do the models disagree most?
ChatGPT
Castaneda by decision: from 42% (Claude) to 53% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
ChatGPT
Chris Schweppe (Castaneda by decision), Fight Productions (Castaneda by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Castaneda by decision), Artem MMA (Castaneda by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Castaneda by decision), James Blissett (Castaneda by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (Castaneda by decision) and FightIQ (Castaneda by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Castaneda, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Other models' answers
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
ChatGPT
ChatGPT and Claude, tied: each gave the actual result 20%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
ChatGPT
Yes.
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep63 of 108 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Castaneda
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Castaneda by decision, about 42 in 100
Win chance: Castaneda 65%, Alatengheili 35%.
Most likely outcomes
- Castaneda by decision42%
- Alatengheili by decision20%
- Castaneda by KO/TKO15%
- KO/TKO: Castaneda 15%, Alatengheili 10%.
- Submission: Castaneda 8%, Alatengheili 5%.
- Decision: Castaneda 42%, Alatengheili 20%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Claude
Castaneda: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 35%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 30%.
Gemini
Castaneda: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 26%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Claude
Castaneda by decision: 42% (about 42 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda by decision: 53% (about 53 in 100).
Gemini
Castaneda by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Claude
1. Castaneda by decision (42%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (20%); 3. Castaneda by KO/TKO (15%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Castaneda by decision (53%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (20%); 3. Castaneda by KO/TKO (12%)
Gemini
1. Castaneda by decision (52%); 2. Castaneda by KO/TKO (17%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (17%)
How confident is the model?
Claude
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 65% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 70% win chance.
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 74% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 27%. Decision: 73%.
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 31%. Decision: 69%.
How does Castaneda win?
Claude
Castaneda wins 65%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 8%, decision 42%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda wins 70%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 53%.
Gemini
Castaneda wins 74%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 5%, decision 52%.
How does Alatengheili win?
Claude
Alatengheili wins 35%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 5%, decision 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Alatengheili wins 30%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%, decision 20%.
Gemini
Alatengheili wins 26%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 17%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Claude
Alatengheili's most likely upset: Alatengheili by decision (20%).
Other models' answers
Gemini
Alatengheili's most likely upset: Alatengheili by decision (17%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Claude
The models agree: all 3 pick Castaneda.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Claude
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (42%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (53%).
Gemini
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (52%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Claude
20% (about 20 in 100).
Other models' answers
Gemini
17% (about 17 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Claude
KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%, decision 62%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 21%, submission 6%, decision 73%.
Gemini
KO/TKO 24%, submission 7%, decision 69%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Claude
Castaneda: 23%, against 15% for Alatengheili.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 17%, against 10% for Alatengheili.
Gemini
Castaneda: 22%, against 9% for Alatengheili.
Can Castaneda get the finish? Can Alatengheili?
Claude
Castaneda: 23% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 8%). Alatengheili: 15% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 5%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Alatengheili: 10% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%).
Gemini
Castaneda: 22% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 5%). Alatengheili: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Claude
Castaneda is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 5%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 8%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 1%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.
Gemini
Castaneda is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 5%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Claude
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Claude
Castaneda by decision: 42%. Alatengheili by decision: 20%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda by decision: 53%. Alatengheili by decision: 20%.
Gemini
Castaneda by decision: 52%. Alatengheili by decision: 17%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Claude
Alatengheili wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Alatengheili wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Gemini
Alatengheili wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Claude
62%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
73%.
Gemini
69%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 68%, Alatengheili 32%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 73%, Alatengheili 27%.
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 75%, Alatengheili 25%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Claude
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 42% here against 53% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 53% here against 47% on average for the others.
Gemini
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 52% here against 48% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Claude
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (65%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (70%).
Gemini
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (74%).
Which model is most confident on Castaneda, and which on Alatengheili?
Claude
On Castaneda: Gemini (74%). On Alatengheili: Claude (35%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Claude
Castaneda by decision: from 42% (Claude) to 53% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Claude
Chris Schweppe (Castaneda by decision), Fight Productions (Castaneda by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Castaneda by decision), Artem MMA (Castaneda by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Castaneda by decision), James Blissett (Castaneda by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (Castaneda by decision) and FightIQ (Castaneda by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Castaneda, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Claude
ChatGPT and Claude, tied: each gave the actual result 20%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Claude
Yes.
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep61 of 101 winner picks correct · 60% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Castaneda
Confidence 7 of 10 · High
Most likely: Castaneda by decision, about 52 in 100
Win chance: Castaneda 74%, Alatengheili 26%.
Most likely outcomes
- Castaneda by decision52%
- Castaneda by KO/TKO, tied for number 217%
- Alatengheili by decision, tied for number 217%
- KO/TKO: Castaneda 17%, Alatengheili 7%.
- Submission: Castaneda 5%, Alatengheili 2%.
- Decision: Castaneda 52%, Alatengheili 17%.
Questions
The result 7 questions
Who wins, and how likely?
Gemini
Castaneda: 74% (about 74 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 70% (about 70 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 30%.
Claude
Castaneda: 65% (about 65 in 100 fights). Alatengheili: 35%.
What is the single most likely outcome?
Gemini
Castaneda by decision: 52% (about 52 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda by decision: 53% (about 53 in 100).
Claude
Castaneda by decision: 42% (about 42 in 100).
What are the three most likely outcomes, and why?
Gemini
1. Castaneda by decision (52%); 2. Castaneda by KO/TKO (17%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (17%)
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
1. Castaneda by decision (53%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (20%); 3. Castaneda by KO/TKO (12%)
Claude
1. Castaneda by decision (42%); 2. Alatengheili by decision (20%); 3. Castaneda by KO/TKO (15%)
How confident is the model?
Gemini
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 74% win chance.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 70% win chance.
Claude
7 of 10, based on Castaneda's 65% win chance.
Does it end early or go to the judges?
Gemini
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 31%. Decision: 69%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 27%. Decision: 73%.
Claude
Finish (KO/TKO or submission): 38%. Decision: 62%.
How does Castaneda win?
Gemini
Castaneda wins 74%: KO/TKO 17%, submission 5%, decision 52%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda wins 70%: KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%, decision 53%.
Claude
Castaneda wins 65%: KO/TKO 15%, submission 8%, decision 42%.
How does Alatengheili win?
Gemini
Alatengheili wins 26%: KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%, decision 17%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Alatengheili wins 30%: KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%, decision 20%.
Claude
Alatengheili wins 35%: KO/TKO 10%, submission 5%, decision 20%.
What if 1 question
What is the upset path?
Gemini
Alatengheili's most likely upset: Alatengheili by decision (17%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Alatengheili's most likely upset: Alatengheili by decision (20%).
Claude
Alatengheili's most likely upset: Alatengheili by decision (20%).
Compared with others 1 question
Do the models agree?
Gemini
The models agree: all 3 pick Castaneda.
After the fight 2 questions
What happened vs what the model said?
Gemini
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's joint number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (52%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (53%).
Claude
Result: Alatengheili by decision, the model's number 2 outcome. Its most likely outcome was Castaneda by decision (42%).
How much chance did it give the actual result?
Gemini
17% (about 17 in 100).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
20% (about 20 in 100).
Claude
20% (about 20 in 100).
More questions (20)
The result 7 questions
KO/TKO vs submission vs decision overall
Gemini
KO/TKO 24%, submission 7%, decision 69%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
KO/TKO 21%, submission 6%, decision 73%.
Claude
KO/TKO 25%, submission 13%, decision 62%.
Who is more likely to finish the other?
Gemini
Castaneda: 22%, against 9% for Alatengheili.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 17%, against 10% for Alatengheili.
Claude
Castaneda: 23%, against 15% for Alatengheili.
Can Castaneda get the finish? Can Alatengheili?
Gemini
Castaneda: 22% (KO/TKO 17%, submission 5%). Alatengheili: 9% (KO/TKO 7%, submission 2%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda: 17% (KO/TKO 12%, submission 5%). Alatengheili: 10% (KO/TKO 9%, submission 1%).
Claude
Castaneda: 23% (KO/TKO 15%, submission 8%). Alatengheili: 15% (KO/TKO 10%, submission 5%).
Who is more likely to be knocked out, and who to be submitted?
Gemini
Castaneda is knocked out in 7% and submitted in 2%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 17% and submitted in 5%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda is knocked out in 9% and submitted in 1%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 12% and submitted in 5%.
Claude
Castaneda is knocked out in 10% and submitted in 5%. Alatengheili is knocked out in 15% and submitted in 8%.
How lopsided is this fight?
Gemini
Lopsided: 74% vs 26%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Lopsided: 70% vs 30%.
Claude
Lopsided: 65% vs 35%.
Each fighter's single most likely way to win
Gemini
Castaneda by decision: 52%. Alatengheili by decision: 17%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Castaneda by decision: 53%. Alatengheili by decision: 20%.
Claude
Castaneda by decision: 42%. Alatengheili by decision: 20%.
How big an upset would it be if the underdog wins?
Gemini
Alatengheili wins 26% (about 1 in 4 fights): a big upset.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Alatengheili wins 30% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Claude
Alatengheili wins 35% (about 1 in 3 fights): a big upset.
Timing 1 question
Chance it goes to a decision
Gemini
69%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
73%.
Claude
62%.
What if 1 question
If it goes to the judges, who wins?
Gemini
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 75%, Alatengheili 25%.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 73%, Alatengheili 27%.
Claude
If it goes to the judges: Castaneda 68%, Alatengheili 32%.
Compared with others 5 questions
Where does this model differ from the others?
Gemini
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 52% here against 48% on average for the others.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 53% here against 47% on average for the others.
Claude
Biggest difference: Castaneda by decision, 42% here against 53% on average for the others.
How does it compare with analyst picks?
Gemini
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (74%).
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (70%).
Claude
Of 22 analyst picks, 22 back Castaneda and 0 back Alatengheili. This model picks Castaneda (65%).
Which model is most confident on Castaneda, and which on Alatengheili?
Gemini
On Castaneda: Gemini (74%). On Alatengheili: Claude (35%).
Where do the models disagree most?
Gemini
Castaneda by decision: from 42% (Claude) to 53% (ChatGPT).
Which analyst agrees most with this model?
Gemini
Chris Schweppe (Castaneda by decision), Fight Productions (Castaneda by decision), Greedo Plays MMA (Castaneda by decision), Artem MMA (Castaneda by decision), DFS By The Numbers (Castaneda by decision), James Blissett (Castaneda by decision), TonyHasDiedMMA (Castaneda by decision) and FightIQ (Castaneda by decision): the same winner and method as this model, tied; this model favours Castaneda, most likely by decision.
How sure 4 questions
When was this forecast made, and by which model version?
Gemini
On 26 Sep 2026, by a model version the provider did not report.
Other models' answers
ChatGPT
On 25 Sep 2026, by gpt-6-astra.
Claude
On 25 Sep 2026, by claude-sonnet-5.
What can't the model know?
FightCard
Models research public information before the fight, such as records, styles, recent results and coverage. They cannot see inside training camps, injuries nobody has reported, or what happens on the night. A small chance is not no chance: outcomes the model rates at a few percent still happen, and big favourites lose sometimes.
How is "confidence" worked out?
FightCard
Confidence restates the favourite's win chance on a 10-step scale: the win chance in tens, rounded, so 55% is 6 of 10 and 95% or more is 10 of 10. 1 to 3 reads Low, 4 to 6 Medium and 7 to 10 High. A favourite usually has at least half the chance, so most picks show 5 or more. When the model has the fighters exactly even, there is no pick and no confidence level. It is not a separate judgement by the model.
What counts as a KO, a decision or a draw?
FightCard
KO/TKO includes referee, doctor and corner stoppages, and disqualifications. A decision includes a fight stopped early and scored on the judges' cards. A stoppage between rounds counts as a finish in the round that just ended. A draw and a no contest share one outcome.
After the fight 2 questions
Which model was closest?
Gemini
ChatGPT and Claude, tied: each gave the actual result 20%.
Was the actual result in this model's top 3?
Gemini
Yes.
Version not reported · 26 Sep68 of 108 winner picks correct · 63% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET
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