UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy  18 Jan 2020 · T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Conor McGregor defeats Donald Cerrone by KO/TKO

Win Conor McGregor 22-4-0
Loss Donald Cerrone 36-14-0
Watch the fight
KO/TKO · head kick

Round 1 · 0:40

McGregor vs Cerrone — Welterweight main event · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

McGregor missed an opening left, then bloodied Cerrone with shoulder strikes after the fighters tied up.

Cerrone tried to reset at range, but McGregor's left kick to the head put him in trouble.

McGregor followed with punches as Cerrone covered along the fence, and Herb Dean stopped the fight at 0:40 of round one.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for McGregor

McGregor arrived at UFC 246 after more than a year away from MMA, moving back to welterweight after the Khabib Nurmagomedov loss. His danger was still built around fast southpaw entries, a sharp left hand, and the ability to turn one clean opening into a finish before an opponent could settle.

Case for Cerrone

Cerrone was the taller veteran and one of the UFC's most experienced finishers, with a Muay Thai base and a long record of wins across lightweight and welterweight. His path was to survive the early McGregor speed, make the fight longer, and pull the returning star into kickboxing exchanges where his volume and clinch craft could matter.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether McGregor could restart quickly after the long layoff and immediately own the first exchange.
  • Cerrone's ability to keep range and avoid letting McGregor turn the opening clinch into damage.
  • How McGregor's welterweight speed and timing looked without a prolonged feeling-out process.
Records & career stats
McGregor vs Cerrone
McGregor Cerrone
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.27 4.41
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 54% 53%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 4.71 4.48
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 67% 74%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 91% 75%
21-4-0
Record
36-13-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
0-4, 1 NC last 5
Ireland
Nationality
USA
37
Age
43
5′9″175 cm
Height — Cerrone leads
6′1″185 cm
74″188 cm
Reach — McGregor leads
73″185 cm
Southpaw
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
91%
Finish rateFinish % — McGregor leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
75%
19
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — McGregor leads
10
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Cerrone leads
17
5.27
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — McGregor leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.41
4.71
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Cerrone leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.48
54%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
53%
67%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Cerrone leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
74%
07:35
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:40
SBG Ireland
Team
BMF Ranch

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 55:54 MMA Lock of the Night on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Conor McGregor

Fight result: Conor McGregor · KO/TKO

MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Conor McGregor (winner only).

Track record: winner called in 85 of 126 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 67.5% (85 hit, 41 miss, across 126 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 59.5% (25 hit, 17 miss, across 42 method-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 55.6% (5 hit, 4 miss, across 9 round-scored calls on 126 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 36.8% (7 hit, 12 miss, across 19 underdog calls on 126 resolved calls).

View full track record (126 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 14:23 The MMA Guru on YouTube ↗

Current pick evidence

Picked: Conor McGregor

Fight result: Conor McGregor · KO/TKO

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Conor McGregor (winner only).

Track record: winner called in 213 of 322 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 66.1% (213 hit, 109 miss, across 322 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 53.4% (62 hit, 54 miss, across 116 method-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 35.9% (14 hit, 25 miss, across 39 round-scored calls on 322 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 47.4% (18 hit, 20 miss, across 38 underdog calls on 322 resolved calls).

View full track record (322 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; The MMA Guru Hit.

2 of 2 nailed it.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

AI Predictions

This fight is settled. Eligible pre-fight AI forecasts load when this page is online.

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

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