Brown vs Smith — Welterweight · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Scheduled · 31 Oct 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Moicano vs. Nolan · Welterweight · Co-Main Event · 3 rounds · Las Vegas, Nevada
Randy
Brown
Record Record: 20-8-0
Wins
20
Losses
8
Draws
0
8KO/TKO
5Sub
7Dec

Red corner

20-8-0
Record
13-0-0
Jamaica
Nationality
United States
36
Age
30
6′3″191 cm
Height — Brown leads
5′10″178 cm
78″198 cm
Reach — Brown leads
72″183 cm
4.39
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Smith leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.91
65%
Finish rateFinish % — Smith leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
85%
Jacobe
Smith
Record Record: 13-0-0
Wins
13
Losses
0
Draws
0
10KO/TKO
1Sub
2Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+10)
20-8-0
Record
13-0-0
2-3 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5-0 last 5
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Southpaw
8
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Smith leads
10
5
Wins by submissionSub wins — Brown leads
1
3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Smith leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.77
54%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Brown leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
75%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Smith leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
100%
10:31
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
04:33
Budokan Martial Arts
Team
The Academy Fight Club

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Predictions summary

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Analysts

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Matchup analysis

Analyst-authored matchup analysis; it is not an AI forecast or pick.

No AI forecast is included in this static view; the authored analysis is shown instead.

Case for Brown

Brown won eight of 10 UFC fights from April 2021 to April 2025, including knockouts of Muslim Salikhov and Nicolas Dalby, but arrives on back-to-back losses to Gabriel Bonfim and Kevin Holland. At 1.91 m, his 198 cm reach is 15 cm longer than Smith's, and his UFC profile lists 75% takedown defence. Can he keep a wrestler at the end of his strikes and drag Smith into deeper water than his recent fights have reached?

Case for Smith

Smith is 13-0 with 10 knockout wins, and the former Oklahoma State wrestler and three-time All-American has finished all four of his UFC opponents. He steps in on less than two weeks' notice after a first-round ground-and-pound stoppage of Bruce Whitehead at UFC 332 on October 3, and his previous win, over Josiah Harrell, also came from strikes on the mat. Can he get Brown down early and land ground strikes before the reach gap becomes a factor?

What to Watch

  • Does Smith shoot early, as in his last two finishes, and can Brown's takedown defence keep the fight standing?
  • Can Brown use his 15 cm reach advantage to land first at range before Smith closes the distance?
  • On short notice, how does Smith respond if Brown survives the early pressure and takes the fight past the first round?

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Best available price

Randy Brown
+225 at DraftKings
Jacobe Smith
-265 at FanDuel

Highest American-odds quote among 4 US-licensed sportsbooks, oldest quote Oct 27, 17:25 UTC. Lines move; confirm with the sportsbook. Not betting advice.

Offshore sportsbooks (not licensed in US states)
Randy Brown
+220 at Bovada
Jacobe Smith
-260 at BetOnline.ag, BetUS

Best price among 3 offshore sportsbooks that quote this fight. Offshore books are not licensed by any US state regulator.

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