Santos vs Santos — Women's Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Scheduled · 31 Oct 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Moicano vs. Nolan · Women's Bantamweight · Main Card · 3 rounds · Las Vegas, Nevada
Yana
Santos
Record Record: 17-8-0
Wins
17
Losses
8
Draws
0
7KO/TKO
1Sub
9Dec

Red corner

17-8-0
Record
11-2-0
Russia
Nationality
Brazil
36
Age
26
5′6″168 cm
Height
5′6″168 cm
69″174 cm
Reach — Santos leads
67″170 cm
4.41
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Santos leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.53
47%
Finish rateFinish % — Santos leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
55%
Luana
Santos
Record Record: 11-2-0
Wins
11
Losses
2
Draws
0
1KO/TKO
5Sub
5Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+9)
17-8-0
Record
11-2-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
7
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Santos leads
1
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Santos leads
5
3.12
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Santos leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.45
53%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Santos leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
64%
52%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Santos leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
86%
12:48
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
11:01

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Predictions summary

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Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Yana Santos · Dec

Chris Schweppe picks Yana Santos by decision over Luana Santos.

“Yana Santos by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).

View full track record (99 calls)
UFC Predict — Logistic Core
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Luana Santos for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

FightIQ's early read selects Luana Santos (74%); it publishes a winner probability only, with no method or round. The receipt snapshot is marked as of 2026-10-18 18:05 UTC.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks, 59 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
UFC Predict — CatBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Luana Santos for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Main + Market
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Luana Santos for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Combat Edge Model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

Combat Edge Model's frozen v0.8-2026-10-04 forecast selects Luana Santos at 73%; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).

View full track record (20 calls)
FightChoice AI ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

FightChoice explicitly selects Luana Santos; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (5 calls)
MMA Intel
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

MMA Intel explicitly selects Luana Santos; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Luana Santos for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — LightGBM
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Luana Santos for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — XGBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Luana Santos for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
MMA.SOCIAL
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos · Dec

MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Luana Santos by decision; no round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

FIGHT//AI selects Luana Santos; the event forecast states a winner probability but no method or round.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Moirai model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

Moirai explicitly selects Luana Santos; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record

No qualifying picks

View full track record
MMA Data Analytics
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Luana Santos

MMA Data Analytics names Luana Santos as its analyst favorite over Yana Santos.

“Analyst favorite”

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record

No qualifying picks

View full track record

Analyst picks: UFC Predict — Logistic Core picks Santos; FightIQ picks Santos; UFC Predict — CatBoost picks Santos; UFC Predict — Main + Market picks Santos; Combat Edge Model picks Santos; FightChoice AI ensemble picks Santos; MMA Intel picks Santos; UFC Predict — Ensemble picks Santos; UFC Predict — LightGBM picks Santos; UFC Predict — XGBoost picks Santos; MMA.SOCIAL picks Santos; Chris Schweppe picks Santos; FIGHT//AI picks Santos; Moirai model picks Santos; MMA Data Analytics picks Santos.

2 of 15 see it go the distance.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Matchup analysis

Analyst-authored matchup analysis; it is not an AI forecast or pick.

No AI forecast is included in this static view; the authored analysis is shown instead.

Case for Santos

Yana Santos has won three straight by unanimous decision, over Chelsea Chandler, Miesha Tate and Macy Chiasson, and nine of her 17 wins have gone the distance. Her UFC profile lists 4.41 significant strikes landed per minute at 58% accuracy. Can the 36-year-old American Top Team fighter keep this at range and win the volume battle over 15 minutes again?

Case for Santos

Luana Santos is also on a three-fight streak: a second-round keylock of Tainara Lisboa, then decisions over Melissa Croden and Karol Rosa. Her only UFC loss came against Casey O'Neill in 2024, five of her 11 wins are submissions, and her profile lists 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes. Can her judo-based grappling turn clinch entries into top position against an opponent whose profile lists 52% takedown defence?

What to Watch

  • Does Yana Santos keep the exchanges at range with volume, or does Luana Santos close into the clinch?
  • If Luana Santos gets on top, can she threaten the kind of arm attack that finished Lisboa?
  • Five of the six wins in their combined streaks went to the judges; who controls the middle round if this one goes long too?

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Best available price

Yana Santos
+220 at BetMGM, BetRivers
Luana Santos
-258 at DraftKings

Highest American-odds quote among 4 US-licensed sportsbooks, oldest quote Oct 27, 17:25 UTC. Lines move; confirm with the sportsbook. Not betting advice.

Offshore sportsbooks (not licensed in US states)
Yana Santos
+217 at BetOnline.ag
Luana Santos
-260 at BetUS, Bovada

Best price among 3 offshore sportsbooks that quote this fight. Offshore books are not licensed by any US state regulator.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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