Erosa vs Lee — Featherweight · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Red corner
- United States
- Nationality
- South Korea
- 37
- Age
- 30
Lee
- Wins
- 11
- Losses
- 3
- Draws
- 0
Blue corner
View full tale of the tape & radar (+6)
- Southpaw
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 07:45
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 07:54
- Xtreme Couture - Las Vegas, NV
- Team
- Fight Ready
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Predictions summary
Fight details
Analysis has not been published for this scheduled bout.
Fan Picks
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Videos
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Analysts
Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Julian Erosa
FightIQ's early read selects Julian Erosa (51%); it publishes a winner probability only, with no method or round. The receipt snapshot is marked as of 2026-10-18 18:05 UTC.
Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks, 59 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 159 68
- Method Accuracy 39.9% 59 89
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 55.0% 11 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Julian Erosa
MMA Intel explicitly selects Julian Erosa; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Julian Erosa
Moirai explicitly selects Julian Erosa; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record
No qualifying picks
View full track recordCurrent pick evidence
Picked: Julian Erosa
MMA Data Analytics names Julian Erosa as its analyst favorite over Jeong Yeong Lee.
“Analyst favorite”
Track record builds as we verify their past calls.
Analyst track record
No qualifying picks
View full track recordCurrent pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee
UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects JeongYeong Lee for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee
UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects JeongYeong Lee for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.3% 9 5
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee
UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects JeongYeong Lee for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 64.3% 9 5
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee
Combat Edge Model's frozen v0.8-2026-10-04 forecast selects Jeong Yeong Lee at 63%; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 12 8
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee
FightChoice explicitly selects JeongYeong Lee; the source does not state a method or round.
Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Current pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee
UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects JeongYeong Lee for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee
UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects JeongYeong Lee for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee
UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects JeongYeong Lee for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.
Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee · Dec
MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects JeongYeong Lee by decision; no round is stated.
Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
- Method Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee · KO/TKO · Round 1
Chris Schweppe picks JeongYeong Lee by first-round knockout.
“Lee by 1st round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 53.5% 53 46
- Method Accuracy 47.2% 25 28
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 10 20
Current pick evidence
Picked: JeongYeong Lee
FIGHT//AI selects JeongYeong Lee; the event forecast states a winner probability but no method or round.
Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).
- Winner Accuracy 32.0% 49 104
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 20 80
Analyst picks: UFC Predict — Logistic Core picks Lee; FightIQ picks Erosa; UFC Predict — CatBoost picks Lee; UFC Predict — Main + Market picks Lee; Combat Edge Model picks Lee; FightChoice AI ensemble picks Lee; MMA Intel picks Erosa; UFC Predict — Ensemble picks Lee; UFC Predict — LightGBM picks Lee; UFC Predict — XGBoost picks Lee; MMA.SOCIAL picks Lee; Chris Schweppe picks Lee; FIGHT//AI picks Lee; Moirai model picks Erosa; MMA Data Analytics picks Erosa.
1 of 15 see a finish — 1 by KO/TKO, 1 by decision.
Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).
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The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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