Moicano vs Nolan — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Scheduled · 31 Oct 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Moicano vs. Nolan · Lightweight · Main Event · 5 rounds · Las Vegas, Nevada
Renato
Moicano
Record Record: 21-7-1
Wins
21
Losses
7
Draws
1
2KO/TKO
11Sub
8Dec

Red corner

21-7-1
Record
11-1-0
Brazil
Nationality
Australia
37
Age
26
5′11″180 cm
Height — Nolan leads
6′3″191 cm
72″183 cm
Reach — Nolan leads
73″185 cm
4.10
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Nolan leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.84
62%
Finish rateFinish % — Moicano leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
55%
Tom
Nolan
Record Record: 11-1-0
Wins
11
Losses
1
Draws
0
5KO/TKO
1Sub
5Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+10)
21-7-1
Record
11-1-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
2
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Nolan leads
5
11
Wins by submissionSub wins — Moicano leads
1
3.55
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.74
60%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Moicano leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
49%
64%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Moicano leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
58%
09:24
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
07:55
American Top Team
Team
Team Compton Training Centre

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Predictions summary

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Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

MMA Intel
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano

MMA Intel explicitly selects Renato Moicano; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano · Sub · Round 2

Chris Schweppe picks Renato Moicano by second-round submission.

“Moicano by 2nd round submission.”

Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).

View full track record (99 calls)
MMA Data Analytics
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Renato Moicano

MMA Data Analytics names Renato Moicano as its analyst favorite over Tom Nolan.

“Analyst favorite”

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record

No qualifying picks

View full track record
UFC Predict — Logistic Core
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Tom Nolan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

FightIQ's early read selects Tom Nolan (66%); it publishes a winner probability only, with no method or round. The receipt snapshot is marked as of 2026-10-18 18:05 UTC.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks, 59 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
UFC Predict — CatBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Tom Nolan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Main + Market
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Tom Nolan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Combat Edge Model
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

Combat Edge Model's frozen v0.8-2026-10-04 forecast selects Tom Nolan at 71%; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).

View full track record (20 calls)
FightChoice AI ensemble
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

FightChoice explicitly selects Tom Nolan; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (5 calls)
UFC Predict — Ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Tom Nolan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — LightGBM
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Tom Nolan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — XGBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Tom Nolan for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
MMA.SOCIAL
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan · Dec

MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Tom Nolan by decision; no round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

FIGHT//AI selects Tom Nolan; the event forecast states a winner probability but no method or round.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Moirai model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tom Nolan

Moirai explicitly selects Tom Nolan; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record

No qualifying picks

View full track record

Analyst picks: UFC Predict — Logistic Core picks Nolan; FightIQ picks Nolan; UFC Predict — CatBoost picks Nolan; UFC Predict — Main + Market picks Nolan; Combat Edge Model picks Nolan; FightChoice AI ensemble picks Nolan; MMA Intel picks Moicano; UFC Predict — Ensemble picks Nolan; UFC Predict — LightGBM picks Nolan; UFC Predict — XGBoost picks Nolan; MMA.SOCIAL picks Nolan; Chris Schweppe picks Moicano; FIGHT//AI picks Nolan; Moirai model picks Nolan; MMA Data Analytics picks Moicano.

1 of 15 see a finish — 1 by submission, 1 by decision.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Matchup analysis

Analyst-authored matchup analysis; it is not an AI forecast or pick.

No AI forecast is included in this static view; the authored analysis is shown instead.

Case for Moicano

Moicano submitted Chris Duncan with a second-round rear-naked choke in April, and his recent wins also include stoppages of Benoît Saint Denis and Jalin Turner. Eleven of his 21 professional wins have come by submission, and his only defeats since the start of 2024 came against Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush. Can the veteran turn exchanges into grappling sequences and work toward the back against a younger, longer opponent?

Case for Nolan

Nolan, 26, has won five straight since losing his UFC debut to Nikolas Motta, most recently a unanimous decision over Farès Ziam in June; the run includes first-round finishes of Victor Martinez and Charlie Campbell. His UFC profile lists 4.84 significant strikes landed per minute and a 185 cm reach, against Moicano's 183 cm. This is his first five-round fight: can he keep Moicano at the end of his punches and knees into the later rounds?

What to Watch

  • Does Moicano close the distance behind his punches, or does Nolan keep him at range with straight shots and knees?
  • If a scramble gives Moicano the back, as it did against Duncan, can Nolan defend the rear-naked choke?
  • In Nolan's first scheduled five-round fight, how does his output hold up in rounds four and five against a veteran who headlined in April?

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Best available price

Renato Moicano
-115 at BetMGM
Tom Nolan
+114 at BetRivers

Highest American-odds quote among 4 US-licensed sportsbooks, oldest quote Oct 27, 17:25 UTC. Lines move; confirm with the sportsbook. Not betting advice.

Offshore sportsbooks (not licensed in US states)
Renato Moicano
-125 at Bovada
Tom Nolan
+111 at BetOnline.ag

Best price among 3 offshore sportsbooks that quote this fight. Offshore books are not licensed by any US state regulator.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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