Szabova vs Lisboa — Women's Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Scheduled · 31 Oct 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Moicano vs. Nolan · Women's Flyweight · Preliminary Card · 3 rounds · Las Vegas, Nevada
Lucia
Szabova
Record Record: 12-0-0
Wins
12
Losses
0
Draws
0

Red corner

12-0-0
Record
7-4-0
Slovakia
Nationality
Source pending
28
Age
35
5′8″172 cm
Height — Szabova leads
5′7″170 cm
Not published
Reach
67″170 cm
Not published
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.01
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
86%
Tainara
Lisboa
Record Record: 7-4-0
Wins
7
Losses
4
Draws
0
3KO/TKO
3Sub
1Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+9)
12-0-0
Record
7-4-0
Source pending
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
Source pending
Source pending
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Source pending
—
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
3
—
Wins by submissionSub wins
3
Source pending
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.88
Source pending
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
Source pending
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
53%
Source pending
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
13:28

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Predictions summary

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Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

UFC Predict — Logistic Core
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Lucia Szabova for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — CatBoost
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Lucia Szabova for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Main + Market
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Lucia Szabova for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
Combat Edge Model
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

Combat Edge Model's frozen v0.8-2026-10-04 forecast selects Lucia Szabová at 74%; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).

View full track record (20 calls)
FightChoice AI ensemble
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

FightChoice explicitly selects Lucia Szabova; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (5 calls)
MMA Intel
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

MMA Intel explicitly selects Lucia Szabova; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Ensemble
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Lucia Szabova for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — LightGBM
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Lucia Szabova for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — XGBoost
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Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Lucia Szabova for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
MMA.SOCIAL
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova · Dec

MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Lucia Szabova by decision; no round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova · KO/TKO · Round 2

Chris Schweppe picks Lucia Szabova by second-round knockout.

“Szabova by 2nd round knockout.”

Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).

View full track record (99 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

FIGHT//AI selects Lucia Szabova; the event forecast states a winner probability but no method or round.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Moirai model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

Moirai explicitly selects Lucia Szabova; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record

No qualifying picks

View full track record
MMA Data Analytics
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Lucia Szabova

MMA Data Analytics names Lucia Szabova as its analyst favorite over Tainara Lisboa.

“Analyst favorite”

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record

No qualifying picks

View full track record

Analyst picks: UFC Predict — Logistic Core picks Szabova; UFC Predict — CatBoost picks Szabova; UFC Predict — Main + Market picks Szabova; Combat Edge Model picks Szabova; FightChoice AI ensemble picks Szabova; MMA Intel picks Szabova; UFC Predict — Ensemble picks Szabova; UFC Predict — LightGBM picks Szabova; UFC Predict — XGBoost picks Szabova; MMA.SOCIAL picks Szabova; Chris Schweppe picks Szabova; FIGHT//AI picks Szabova; Moirai model picks Szabova; MMA Data Analytics picks Szabova.

1 of 14 see a finish — 1 by KO/TKO, 1 by decision.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Matchup analysis

Analyst-authored matchup analysis; it is not an AI forecast or pick.

No AI forecast is included in this static view; the authored analysis is shown instead.

Case for Szabova

The captured UFC athlete-page header displays 0-0-0 (W-L-D), but the page has no named previous-result row, so the header is not treated as her complete professional record or as a latest-opponent claim. Her separately qualified professional record is 12-0-0; prior opponent, date, and method details remain omitted from this UFC-history comparison. With no UFC previous-result card or rate to compare, the sourced matchup contrast here is limited to Lisboa’s profile figures.

Case for Lisboa

UFC lists Tainara Lisboa at 7-4-0 (W-L-D); its latest athlete-page result is a loss to Croden on October 19, 2025. The retained fighter profile records 2.01 significant strikes landed per minute and 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes. Lisboa's 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes are a measurable entry route in this pairing.

What to Watch

  • Can Szabova establish her preferred pace before Lisboa looks for entries?
  • Can Lisboa's 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes produce control time?
  • Which fighter dictates the first clinch or reset?

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Best available price

Lucia Szabova
-620 at FanDuel
Tainara Lisboa
+500 at DraftKings

Highest American-odds quote among 3 US-licensed sportsbooks, oldest quote Oct 27, 17:25 UTC. Lines move; confirm with the sportsbook. Not betting advice.

Offshore sportsbooks (not licensed in US states)
Lucia Szabova
-640 at BetUS
Tainara Lisboa
+482 at BetOnline.ag

Best price among 3 offshore sportsbooks that quote this fight. Offshore books are not licensed by any US state regulator.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Independent fan-made fight preview. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.