Alencar vs Rodriguez — Women's Strawweight · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Scheduled · 31 Oct 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Moicano vs. Nolan · Women's Strawweight · Preliminary Card · 3 rounds · Las Vegas, Nevada
Talita
Alencar
Record Record: 8-1-1
Wins
8
Losses
1
Draws
1
0KO/TKO
4Sub
4Dec

Red corner

8-1-1
Record
12-2-0
Brazil
Nationality
Venezuela
Source pending
Age
33
5′1″155 cm
Height — Rodriguez leads
5′3″160 cm
59″149 cm
Reach — Rodriguez leads
63″161 cm
3.09
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Rodriguez leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.04
50%
Finish rateFinish % — Alencar leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
42%
Piera
Rodriguez
Record Record: 12-2-0
Wins
12
Losses
2
Draws
0
5KO/TKO
0Sub
7Dec

Blue corner

View full tale of the tape & radar (+10)
8-1-1
Record
12-2-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
0
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Rodriguez leads
5
4
Wins by submissionSub wins — Alencar leads
0
3.67
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Rodriguez leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.13
51%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Rodriguez leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
54%
67%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Rodriguez leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
82%
14:56
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
13:27
Team Reis & M80 Wrestling
Team
Xtreme Couture - Las Vegas, NV

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect the fighter data snapshot used for this page. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Predictions summary

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Analysts

Independent analyst picks — analysts, fighters and betting desks — on this fight: who they pick, how, and the exact moment they say it. Tap any clip to hear it.

UFC Predict — CatBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Talita Alencar

UFC Predict — CatBoost explicitly selects Talita Alencar for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 42.9% (3 hit, 4 miss, across 7 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Main + Market
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Talita Alencar

UFC Predict — Main + Market explicitly selects Talita Alencar for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 9 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 64.3% (9 hit, 5 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 2 miss, across 2 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Talita Alencar

UFC Predict — Ensemble explicitly selects Talita Alencar for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — LightGBM
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Talita Alencar

UFC Predict — LightGBM explicitly selects Talita Alencar for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — XGBoost
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Talita Alencar

UFC Predict — XGBoost explicitly selects Talita Alencar for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (2 hit, 4 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
UFC Predict — Logistic Core
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Piera Rodriguez

UFC Predict — Logistic Core explicitly selects Piera Rodriguez for this matchup; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 10 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 71.4% (10 hit, 4 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 50.0% (3 hit, 3 miss, across 6 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
FightIQ
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Piera Rodriguez

FightIQ's early read selects Piera Rodriguez (59%); it publishes a winner probability only, with no method or round. The receipt snapshot is marked as of 2026-10-18 18:05 UTC.

Track record: winner called in 159 of 227 resolved picks, 59 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 70.0% (159 hit, 68 miss, across 227 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 39.9% (59 hit, 89 miss, across 148 method-scored calls on 227 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 55.0% (11 hit, 9 miss, across 20 underdog calls on 227 resolved calls).

View full track record (227 calls)
Combat Edge Model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Piera Rodriguez

Combat Edge Model's frozen v0.8-2026-10-04 forecast selects Piera Rodriguez at 66%; no method or round is stated. Recorded from the 2026-10-21 page snapshot because no per-pick publication time is shown.

Track record: winner called in 12 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (12 hit, 8 miss, across 20 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 25.0% (1 hit, 3 miss, across 4 underdog calls on 20 resolved calls).

View full track record (20 calls)
FightChoice AI ensemble
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Piera Rodriguez

FightChoice explicitly selects Piera Rodriguez; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 3 of 5 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 60.0% (3 hit, 2 miss, across 5 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 0.0% (0 hit, 1 miss, across 1 round-scored calls on 5 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy: No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price.

View full track record (5 calls)
MMA Intel
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Piera Rodriguez

MMA Intel explicitly selects Piera Rodriguez; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record: winner called in 8 of 14 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 57.1% (8 hit, 6 miss, across 14 resolved calls). Method Accuracy: No method picks. Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (1 hit, 4 miss, across 5 underdog calls on 14 resolved calls).

View full track record (14 calls)
MMA.SOCIAL
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Piera Rodriguez · Dec

MMA.SOCIAL's UFC forecast selects Piera Rodriguez by decision; no round is stated.

Track record: winner called in 15 of 27 resolved picks, 7 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 55.6% (15 hit, 12 miss, across 27 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 46.7% (7 hit, 8 miss, across 15 method-scored calls on 27 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 37.5% (3 hit, 5 miss, across 8 underdog calls on 27 resolved calls).

View full track record (27 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Piera Rodriguez · Dec

Chris Schweppe picks Piera Rodriguez by decision over Talita Alencar.

“Rodriguez by decision.”

Track record: winner called in 53 of 99 resolved picks, 15 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 53.5% (53 hit, 46 miss, across 99 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 47.2% (25 hit, 28 miss, across 53 method-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Round Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 round-scored calls on 99 resolved calls). Underdog Accuracy 33.3% (10 hit, 20 miss, across 30 underdog calls on 99 resolved calls).

View full track record (99 calls)
FIGHT//AI
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Piera Rodriguez

FIGHT//AI selects Piera Rodriguez; the event forecast states a winner probability but no method or round.

Track record: winner called in 49 of 153 resolved picks, 1 a perfect call. How winner calls are counted · What a perfect call is

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

Winner Accuracy 32.0% (49 hit, 104 miss, across 153 resolved calls). Method Accuracy 50.0% (1 hit, 1 miss, across 2 method-scored calls on 153 resolved calls). Round Accuracy: No round picks. Underdog Accuracy 20.0% (20 hit, 80 miss, across 100 underdog calls on 153 resolved calls).

View full track record (153 calls)
Moirai model
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Piera Rodriguez

Moirai explicitly selects Piera Rodriguez; the source does not state a method or round.

Track record builds as we verify their past calls.

Analyst track record

No qualifying picks

View full track record

Analyst picks: UFC Predict — Logistic Core picks Rodriguez; FightIQ picks Rodriguez; UFC Predict — CatBoost picks Alencar; UFC Predict — Main + Market picks Alencar; Combat Edge Model picks Rodriguez; FightChoice AI ensemble picks Rodriguez; MMA Intel picks Rodriguez; UFC Predict — Ensemble picks Alencar; UFC Predict — LightGBM picks Alencar; UFC Predict — XGBoost picks Alencar; MMA.SOCIAL picks Rodriguez; Chris Schweppe picks Rodriguez; FIGHT//AI picks Rodriguez; Moirai model picks Rodriguez.

2 of 14 see it go the distance.

Chart: selected analyst picks, not a win probability. Pill badge: Winner hit rate (total scored picks before this event).

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Matchup analysis

Analyst-authored matchup analysis; it is not an AI forecast or pick.

No AI forecast is included in this static view; the authored analysis is shown instead.

Case for Alencar

Alencar's UFC profile records an 8-1-1 record and 3.01 takedowns per 15 minutes. That documented grappling rate gives her a defined path if she establishes entries against Rodriguez.

Case for Rodriguez

Rodriguez's UFC profile lists a 12-2 record and 4.04 significant strikes landed per minute. Her striking output gives her a counterpoint if she can keep the exchanges standing.

What to Watch

  • Can Alencar establish takedown entries early?
  • Can Rodriguez keep space to work her striking volume?
  • What happens when the first takedown attempt meets a counter?

Market Odds

No current consensus line is saved on this page.

Best available price

Talita Alencar
+240 at BetMGM, DraftKings
Piera Rodriguez
-290 at FanDuel

Highest American-odds quote among 4 US-licensed sportsbooks, oldest quote Oct 27, 17:25 UTC. Lines move; confirm with the sportsbook. Not betting advice.

Offshore sportsbooks (not licensed in US states)
Talita Alencar
+247 at BetOnline.ag
Piera Rodriguez
-280 at Bovada

Best price among 3 offshore sportsbooks that quote this fight. Offshore books are not licensed by any US state regulator.

Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

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