We Want Picks — UFC Sacramento full-card predictions

Reads it as a mismatch off tape study: Kuse shows a lack of head movement and hesitancy, and relies on physicality rather than technique. Expects Barbosa's aggressive, intent-heavy striking -- coming off the knockout of Dennis Bazooka -- to run through a fighter he does not rate as UFC level. Notes odds had not been posted when he recorded.

“I think he dominates this fight. I can't even see a world where Ryan wins.”

Dismisses the short-turnaround worry -- Wint won on Tuesday's Contender Series in 34 seconds without absorbing a strike -- and takes the former NFL linebacker on power, speed and composure at heavyweight, with real takedowns behind it. Rates Chatman as a clean, well-trained technical striker with a UFC future, just not at heavyweight and not yet, because he is too hittable.

“This fight was clearly set up for Anthony Wint to get a big win, and Anthony Wint will get a big win.”

Expects Dorsainvil to test Young's chin early and to cut him -- predicting a bloody Young by the middle of the first -- but backs Young to work through it on toughness and the option of wrestling. Notes Young's one bad night on the feet came against teammate Evan Elder on short notice, whereas here he has a full camp and was preparing for an aggressive opponent. Explicitly declines to bet it because Young cuts too easily.

“so I'll take Gage to win this fight.”

Picks Douglas on trust in the matchmaking rather than on a proven record, and says so plainly: the odds are far too wide for a fighter who has not been tested and has no quality UFC win. Warns that Emmers is a proven entity whose recent turn to wrestling -- as against Haider Amil -- could put Douglas in a tough spot.

“So I'm going to pick Laren Douglas here.”

Concedes Haqparast is the better and more technical striker with excellent takedown defence, then picks against him on durability and forward pressure, plus the risk he returns from a bad knockout loss hesitant to engage or on a strange game plan. Notes Haqparast has also underperformed against low-level opposition, and that the current odds are about where they should be.

“So, Chris Padilla is going to be the pick.”

Calls it a bad stylistic match-up for Reed rather than a knock on her: Dyer is bigger, more powerful, the better striker, and good enough defensively to stop Reed turning it into a wrestling match. Cannot find a route for Reed on the feet, into a clean takedown, or through the power.

“So, I think Chanel Dyer wins this fight.”

Takes Nzechukwu on power and rangy kicks against a Gaziev coming off back-to-back knockout losses, with the chin now the deciding weakness. Allows that Gaziev can strike and wrestle and could absolutely win, and expects a sloppy or outright boring heavyweight fight either way.

“I'm actually going to pick Kennedy Nzechukwu here.”

Reads Mederos as almost too technical and too athletic for this match-up, and expects Jones's pressure and grit to deny him room to breathe -- Jones will keep walking forward even while eating two strikes to one. Mederos's only path is to stay clean, stay safe and out-athlete him.

“So, I think Mason Jones wins this fight just by being violent and willing to take a beating.”

Reads it as mostly a striking match-up and takes Judice on that edge, while warning she creates her own danger: after having her back taken early in her last fight she chose to grapple in the third and was nearly submitted. If Chaves lands the same kind of well-timed takedowns she used last time out, it gets weird. Notes the odds are far too long to bet.

“Carla is going to be the pick because she's the better striker.”

Grants McVey the size and the clearly better striking, then discounts it on takedown defence: if Schultz shows up as the All-American wrestler rather than pulling guard as he did against Penaaz, he can repeat the success Zac Reese had against McVey. Rates neither man highly and sides with whoever can control where the fight happens.

“So, I'm going to side with the wrestler here. The striking doesn't matter if you can't keep the fight on the feet.”

Takes Spivac as an underdog on grit and heavyweight experience: reads Petrino as an athlete who became a fighter rather than a fighter, and expects Spivac -- ten times the grappler of Petrino's last opponent -- to work in his own takedowns. Flags the one real concern that at heavyweight raw athleticism alone can still win a fight or two.

“So, Sergey Spivak is going to be the pick.”

Picks against his own long-standing preference for Dolidze: the wins that made Dolidze's name are four years old, and de Ridder is the bigger man genuinely suited to 205. Expects de Ridder to manage range, land jumping knees, and for Dolidze to fold mentally as he has before.

“So I absolutely love Reinier de Ridder in this spot.”

Hernandez's grappling volume (six takedowns per 15 minutes) and his ability to absorb head strikes decide it, so long as Rodrigues head-hunts for the knockout instead of attacking the body — the one route Angelo flags as Hernandez's weakness, citing how Kevin Holland and Sean Strickland both beat him. Notes he is surprised Hernandez is as short as -175 rather than -120, but takes him anyway and expects a nail-biter.

“I am going to pick him. Anthony Fluffy Hernandez, it's going to be a nail-biter, guys.”