Analyst study · data through 24 October 2026 · dates vary by board

How accurate are MMA analysts?

Analyst majority vs. favourite: On the same 236 priced fights with at least 3 resolved analyst picks and a non-tied analyst majority, the analyst majority was right 156 times; the favourite, 163. On those 35 fights where their picks differed, no reliable difference is shown; the gap is within what chance alone would produce (sign test, p = 0.311). See the counts and method

See the latest card breakdown

Who would have paid off? $100 on every Bedtime MMA pick across 13 of the 15 cards in the study (June to October 2026) would have made +$2,102 on 101 picks ($10,100 staked, +21%). Backing the favourite in those same fights made +$179. Nine of the 42 analysts with at least 20 priced picks finished in profit, and Bedtime MMA is the top earner of those 42. Strong record: likely ahead of simply backing the favourite on the same fights, though not yet proven beyond luck across all 42 analysts checked.

A record of past public picks, not betting advice. Picks are scored at prices stored before each card; it is not a forecast or a tip.

259 analysts tracked
7,432 resolved picks scored
487 fights on 56 cards, the whole record
+$150 backing every favourite, $100 a fight, on the 138 priced fights

Key findings

Different analysts, different strengths. Highest hit rate (50+ picks): Bedtime MMA, 132 of 185 (71%).
Most money at real prices: Bedtime MMA, +$2,102 on 101 picks.
Best at calling how fights end (50+ calls): Bedtime MMA 44%, TheWeasle 43%, Fight Productions 43%, against 37% for the average analyst.
None of these is Proven yet; two have a Strong record.
Where analysts add value: calling how fights end. Across 252 fights with a known favourite, analysts got the winner and the method both right 37.2% of the time, against 29.8% for simply taking the favourite by KO/TKO, the best of three simple rules (gap +7.5 points, 95% range +1.5 to +13.4). That is against a simple rule, not against method betting odds, which are not stored.
On picking winners alone, none of the 43 analysts on the hit-rate board has yet shown they beat backing the favourite on the same fights (7 are ahead on the raw count, inside the range luck allows).
AJ Devito is likely ahead of the market: +7.5 wins per 100 picks above what the market expected (121 picks). Strong record: likely ahead of the market, though not yet proven beyond luck across all 65 analysts checked.

Who leads where

The analyst ranked first on each board, against that board’s baseline. Leading is a ranking, not proof; the badge says how sure the lead is.

Money, against the favourite

Bedtime MMA

+19.0 per $100

ahead of backing the favourite on the same fights; +$2,102 on 101 picks ($10,100 staked)

95% range −1.1 to +41.1

Strong record
Underdog picks

Bedtime MMA

+83.6 per $100

ahead of backing the favourite on the same fights; +$1,174 on 23 underdog picks

95% range −5.3 to +171.4

Too early to tell
Picking winners

KennyOkoyeMMA

43 of 65

right; +3.1 points ahead of the favourite on the same 64 fights

95% range −6.3 to +12.5

Too early to tell
Calling how fights end

Fight Productions

28 of 65

winner and method right; +11.6 points ahead of other analysts on the same fights

95% range +1.5 to +21.8

Strong record
Beating the market

AJ Devito

+7.5 wins

per 100 picks above what the market expected, on 121 picks

95% range −0.5 to +14.8

Strong record

The boards

Every money board opens with the Baseline rows: what you would have got without any analyst. Tables scroll sideways on a phone.

If you followed them: $100 on every pick

How much would $100 on each of this analyst’s picks have made or lost, at a price you could actually have bet?

Window: 15 cards with a stored sportsbook price, 14 June 2026 to 24 October 2026 (138 fights).
Price: the last sportsbook consensus captured before the card (at least 3 books); each pick is settled at the median book’s odds for the fighter it backed, bookmaker margin included. No individual book or price is shown.
Who is listed: analysts with at least 20 priced picks on this board (42 of 232). A badge needs at least 50 picks and compares the analyst with backing the favourite on the same fights, not with zero.
Starts sorted by: profit, high to low. With JavaScript, select Analyst to sort A to Z; built rank numbers disappear after sorting. Leading #1–#3 rank the top 3 by their worst case against the baseline (the low end of their 95% range), not by this column.

How far ahead of backing the favourite on the same fights, per $100 bet. Dot: best estimate. Line: 95% range. Right of the favourite rule is ahead. Top 10 by their worst case (the low end of the range), the same order as Leading; every row is in the table below.

Bedtime MMA Leading #1+19.0−1.1 to +41.1
KennyOkoyeMMA Leading #2+8.1−8.3 to +28.5
MMA Lock of the Night Leading #3+21.0−9.5 to +54.2
The MMA Guru+2.1−14.7 to +19.8
TheWeasle+4.3−16.0 to +28.0
Michael Bisping−5.6−16.8 to 0.0
Jimbo Ortega MMA+18.5−17.0 to +59.0
JakeGerberMMA−6.1−18.6 to +6.6
DFS By The Numbers−7.2−19.5 to +5.1
James Blissett+12.5−19.7 to +50.1

If you followed them: $100 on every pick: baselines first, followed by listed analysts
Analyst	Profit on $100 a pick	Favourite on the same fights	Ahead of the favourite, per $100 (95% range)	Badge (against the favourite, same fights)	Record	Return per $100 (ROI)	95% range of ROI	Polymarket check	Cards
Back the favourite in every fight	+$150on 138 fights	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline	101 of 138	+1.1%	−9.5% to +11.4%	not applicable	not applicable
Back the underdog in every fight	−$1,753on 138 fights	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline	37 of 138	−12.7%	−39.2% to +18.9%	not applicable	not applicable
Average analyst232 analysts, each fight counted once	not applicable	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline	3,107 pickson 138 fights	−3.5%	−10.0% to +2.6%	not applicable	not applicable
1 Bedtime MMA Leading #1	+$2,102on 101 picks	+$179	+19.0−1.1 to +41.1	Strong record	77 of 101	+20.8%	+4.8% to +37.3%	+$2,392on 94 picks	13
2 MMA Lock of the Night Leading #3	+$734on 37 picks	−$43	+21.0−9.5 to +54.2	Too early to tell	28 of 37	+19.8%	−6.0% to +46.3%	+$770on 35 picks	4
3 James Blissett	+$393on 31 picks	+$6	+12.5−19.7 to +50.1	Too early to tell	22 of 31	+12.7%	−16.3% to +43.6%	+$262on 22 picks	9
4 Jimbo Ortega MMA	+$249on 20 picks	−$122	+18.5−17.0 to +59.0	Too early to tell	15 of 20	+12.4%	−20.5% to +47.3%	+$207on 17 picks	4
5 AJ Devito	+$232on 80 picks	+$370	−1.7−20.4 to +18.8	Too early to tell	55 of 80	+2.9%	−14.5% to +20.4%	+$498on 77 picks	11
6 TheWeasle	+$204on 57 picks	−$42	+4.3−16.0 to +28.0	Too early to tell	40 of 57	+3.6%	−16.5% to +25.1%	+$444on 53 picks	8
7 The MMA Guru	+$204on 97 picks	−$2	+2.1−14.7 to +19.8	Too early to tell	67 of 97	+2.1%	−13.3% to +17.4%	+$473on 91 picks	12
8 138 MMA	+$86on 29 picks	+$107	−0.8−39.6 to +40.0	Too early to tell	19 of 29	+2.9%	−27.7% to +34.0%	+$266on 28 picks	4
9 Kunath	+$17on 26 picks	+$9	+0.3−34.9 to +42.2	Too early to tell	17 of 26	+0.7%	−32.2% to +34.5%	−$34on 23 picks	6
10 Michael Bisping	−$35on 22 picks	+$88	−5.6−16.8 to 0.0	Too early to tell	15 of 22	−1.6%	−32.0% to +26.6%	−$88on 19 picks	6
11 HopperMMA	−$85on 87 picks	+$315	−4.6−22.5 to +14.5	Too early to tell	59 of 87	−1.0%	−16.6% to +15.0%	+$95on 82 picks	12
12 KennyOkoyeMMA Leading #2	−$92on 39 picks	−$407	+8.1−8.3 to +28.5	Too early to tell	27 of 39	−2.3%	−24.9% to +19.1%	+$36on 38 picks	8
13 MMA Husky Hustler	−$158on 30 picks	−$83	−2.5−32.8 to +32.6	Too early to tell	19 of 30	−5.3%	−33.7% to +24.6%	−$41on 29 picks	3
14 BetSam	−$200on 23 picks	+$72	−11.8−42.3 to +18.7	Too early to tell	14 of 23	−8.7%	−40.2% to +21.8%	−$42on 22 picks	4
15 Adam Martin	−$210on 26 picks	+$115	−12.5−43.2 to +24.0	Too early to tell	16 of 26	−8.1%	−39.1% to +23.2%	+$162on 16 picks	3
16 Pure Picks	−$244on 27 picks	−$116	−4.8−33.1 to +26.7	Too early to tell	16 of 27	−9.1%	−38.7% to +21.8%	−$151on 27 picks	3
17 James Lynch	−$255on 24 picks	−$270	+0.6−22.9 to +24.8	Too early to tell	15 of 24	−10.6%	−39.3% to +17.4%	−$275on 21 picks	5
18 Jon Litterine	−$282on 21 picks	+$51	−15.9−52.8 to +26.4	Too early to tell	12 of 21	−13.4%	−47.2% to +22.7%	−$22on 11 picks	5
19 MikesMMAPicks	−$344on 21 picks	−$112	−11.0−47.4 to +26.2	Too early to tell	12 of 21	−16.4%	−48.4% to +18.5%	−$118on 12 picks	2
20 Fight Productions	−$345on 21 picks	+$14	−17.1−53.4 to +22.3	Too early to tell	12 of 21	−16.4%	−49.4% to +16.5%	−$56on 10 picks	6
21 TonyHasDiedMMA	−$380on 23 picks	−$40	−14.8−46.4 to +20.2	Too early to tell	13 of 23	−16.5%	−48.3% to +14.7%	−$419on 14 picks	5
22 Lucas Tracy	−$407on 26 picks	+$248	−25.2−58.4 to +9.4	Too early to tell	15 of 26	−15.7%	−45.7% to +14.0%	−$397on 25 picks	5
23 Michael Chiesa	−$440on 51 picks	+$264	−13.8−33.5 to +8.2	Too early to tell	33 of 51	−8.6%	−29.3% to +12.4%	−$326on 47 picks	8
24 DFS By The Numbers	−$461on 108 picks	+$314	−7.2−19.5 to +5.1	Too early to tell	73 of 108	−4.3%	−17.4% to +8.3%	−$203on 95 picks	13
25 Cole Shelton	−$466on 28 picks	+$22	−17.4−39.7 to 0.0	Too early to tell	17 of 28	−16.6%	−42.3% to +9.6%	−$417on 18 picks	4
26 Half The Battle	−$501on 74 picks	−$116	−5.2−22.3 to +13.5	Too early to tell	48 of 74	−6.8%	−24.1% to +11.1%	−$224on 71 picks	10
27 We Want Picks	−$515on 104 picks	+$531	−10.1−26.1 to +6.3	Too early to tell	69 of 104	−4.9%	−19.1% to +9.6%	−$22on 91 picks	13
28 MMA JOEY	−$556on 60 picks	−$376	−3.0−20.8 to +15.8	Too early to tell	38 of 60	−9.3%	−28.2% to +10.7%	−$335on 55 picks	11
29 Jesse Holland	−$563on 24 picks	−$330	−9.7−43.6 to +28.5	Too early to tell	12 of 24	−23.4%	−54.7% to +7.9%	−$514on 24 picks	9
30 Nick Kalikas	−$573on 21 picks	−$112	−22.0−57.4 to +17.3	Too early to tell	10 of 21	−27.3%	−60.7% to +6.7%	−$223on 12 picks	2
31 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)	−$630on 43 picks	−$211	−9.8−33.7 to +16.8	Too early to tell	25 of 43	−14.7%	−39.3% to +10.0%	−$357on 42 picks	6
32 Greedo Plays MMA	−$635on 24 picks	−$20	−25.6−50.8 to −5.8	Too early to tell	13 of 24	−26.5%	−53.6% to +0.1%	−$506on 13 picks	9
33 Andrew Richardson	−$637on 36 picks	−$208	−11.9−26.9 to 0.0	Too early to tell	22 of 36	−17.7%	−39.9% to +4.2%	−$491on 34 picks	11
34 Rparqs	−$725on 20 picks	−$277	−22.4−64.5 to +25.6	Too early to tell	8 of 20	−36.3%	−71.6% to +5.1%	−$403on 13 picks	3
35 Chris Schweppe	−$745on 48 picks	+$46	−16.5−48.5 to +20.3	Too early to tell	25 of 48	−15.5%	−42.6% to +13.9%	−$279on 37 picks	7
36 Bookie Beatdown	−$745on 26 picks	−$38	−27.2−58.1 to +3.0	Too early to tell	13 of 26	−28.6%	−56.8% to −1.6%	−$715on 25 picks	4
37 JakeGerberMMA	−$798on 91 picks	−$239	−6.1−18.6 to +6.6	Too early to tell	60 of 91	−8.8%	−23.0% to +5.4%	−$693on 78 picks	13
38 Uselyis	−$865on 26 picks	−$93	−29.7−56.3 to −6.3	Too early to tell	13 of 26	−33.3%	−59.2% to −7.5%	−$529on 19 picks	5
39 Artem MMA	−$902on 29 picks	+$67	−33.4−59.6 to −11.1	Too early to tell	15 of 29	−31.1%	−55.1% to −6.8%	−$746on 18 picks	6
40 Chris White	−$915on 21 picks	−$112	−38.2−69.2 to −14.1	Too early to tell	9 of 21	−43.5%	−73.1% to −14.7%	−$378on 12 picks	2
41 The MMA Yuda	−$1,052on 21 picks	−$271	−37.2−67.7 to −13.6	Too early to tell	8 of 21	−50.1%	−76.2% to −21.1%	−$714on 11 picks	5
42 FIGHT//AI	−$3,012on 88 picks	+$964	−45.2−80.8 to −6.6	Behind so far	21 of 88	−34.2%	−60.3% to −2.3%	−$2,310on 80 picks	15

The average analyst row counts each fight once: on every fight, the average return of the analysts who picked it, then the average over fights. All 3,107 picks added together return −12.0%, because a few big upsets that most analysts missed weigh on every pick that missed them.

Strict check. 69 of the 138 fights are on the main card, or on a card that lists a separate main-card start, so their price is provably from before the fight. The other 69 are prelims on cards with one listed start time: their price was captured before the card began but cannot be shown to precede that particular fight. On those 69 fights alone, Bedtime MMA made +$1,509 on 55 picks and the favourite on the same fights +$600.

Prices are snapshots. Each is the consensus shortly before the card, not the price when the analyst posted, and real bets carry fees and limits.

Favourite picks only

When this analyst backs the favourite, does choosing which favourites to back pay?

Window: 15 cards with a stored sportsbook price, 14 June 2026 to 24 October 2026 (138 fights).
Price: the last sportsbook consensus captured before the card (at least 3 books); each pick is settled at the median book’s odds for the fighter it backed, bookmaker margin included. No individual book or price is shown.
Who is listed: analysts with at least 20 priced picks on this board (28 of 222). A badge needs at least 50 picks and compares the analyst with backing every favourite, not with zero.
Starts sorted by: profit, high to low. With JavaScript, select Analyst to sort A to Z; built rank numbers disappear after sorting. Leading #1–#3 rank the top 3 by their worst case against the baseline (the low end of their 95% range), not by this column.

Favourite picks only: baselines first, followed by listed analysts
Analyst	Profit on $100 a pick	Ahead of backing every favourite, per $100 (95% range)	Badge (against backing every favourite)	Record	Return per $100 (ROI)	95% range of ROI	Polymarket check	Cards
Back the favourite in every fight	+$150on 138 fights	not applicable	Baseline	101 of 138	+1.1%	−9.5% to +11.4%	not applicable	not applicable
Average analyst222 analysts, each fight counted once	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline	2,486 pickson 136 fights	+1.8%	−9.2% to +12.0%	not applicable	not applicable
1 Bedtime MMA Leading #1	+$928on 78 picks	+10.8−2.2 to +22.6	Strong record	64 of 78	+11.9%	−0.9% to +23.7%	+$1,131on 72 picks	12
2 AJ Devito Leading #2	+$478on 62 picks	+6.6−8.6 to +20.2	Too early to tell	49 of 62	+7.7%	−7.5% to +21.5%	+$687on 59 picks	11
3 MMA Lock of the Night	+$294on 29 picks	+9.0−13.4 to +29.7	Too early to tell	23 of 29	+10.1%	−12.6% to +30.5%	+$335on 28 picks	4
4 The MMA Guru	+$283on 78 picks	+2.5−11.4 to +16.5	Too early to tell	59 of 78	+3.6%	−10.4% to +17.3%	+$448on 72 picks	12
5 We Want Picks Leading #3	+$272on 82 picks	+2.2−11.3 to +15.1	Too early to tell	63 of 82	+3.3%	−9.8% to +15.7%	+$549on 75 picks	13
6 HopperMMA	+$247on 69 picks	+2.5−11.9 to +15.8	Too early to tell	53 of 69	+3.6%	−10.6% to +16.8%	+$419on 65 picks	12
7 James Blissett	+$154on 25 picks	+5.0−20.6 to +27.9	Too early to tell	19 of 25	+6.1%	−19.6% to +29.0%	+$47on 18 picks	9
8 138 MMA	+$91on 21 picks	+3.3−22.8 to +28.4	Too early to tell	16 of 21	+4.4%	−25.3% to +29.6%	+$158on 21 picks	3
9 DFS By The Numbers	+$82on 94 picks	−0.2−13.5 to +12.2	Too early to tell	69 of 94	+0.9%	−12.1% to +13.0%	+$322on 83 picks	13
10 Michael Bisping	+$65on 21 picks	+2.0−28.5 to +30.3	Too early to tell	15 of 21	+3.1%	−28.3% to +31.7%	+$12on 18 picks	6
11 Kunath	+$31on 20 picks	+0.5−27.7 to +26.4	Too early to tell	15 of 20	+1.6%	−26.0% to +26.3%	−$32on 17 picks	5
12 TheWeasle	−$7on 50 picks	−1.2−18.9 to +14.9	Too early to tell	37 of 50	−0.1%	−18.2% to +16.7%	+$152on 46 picks	8
13 Michael Chiesa	−$20on 43 picks	−1.5−20.4 to +16.0	Too early to tell	32 of 43	−0.5%	−18.6% to +16.8%	+$97on 39 picks	8
14 Adam Martin	−$26on 21 picks	−2.3−30.9 to +23.1	Too early to tell	15 of 21	−1.2%	−29.3% to +24.7%	+$29on 14 picks	3
15 Pure Picks	−$82on 21 picks	−5.0−35.6 to +25.5	Too early to tell	14 of 21	−3.9%	−34.7% to +26.1%	−$1on 21 picks	3
16 MMA Husky Hustler	−$88on 24 picks	−4.7−31.7 to +18.9	Too early to tell	17 of 24	−3.6%	−30.3% to +21.9%	−$27on 23 picks	3
17 Cole Shelton	−$166on 25 picks	−7.7−32.6 to +17.4	Too early to tell	17 of 25	−6.6%	−32.7% to +18.5%	−$217on 16 picks	4
18 Greedo Plays MMA	−$235on 20 picks	−12.8−42.3 to +15.6	Too early to tell	13 of 20	−11.8%	−41.6% to +16.3%	−$306on 11 picks	8
19 James Lynch	−$253on 22 picks	−12.6−41.8 to +16.0	Too early to tell	14 of 22	−11.5%	−41.6% to +16.3%	−$290on 19 picks	5
20 Half The Battle	−$265on 63 picks	−5.3−20.8 to +9.5	Too early to tell	45 of 63	−4.2%	−19.8% to +10.9%	−$70on 60 picks	10
21 KennyOkoyeMMA	−$268on 36 picks	−8.5−29.5 to +10.6	Too early to tell	25 of 36	−7.4%	−28.7% to +12.5%	−$191on 35 picks	8
22 Chris Schweppe	−$292on 33 picks	−9.9−32.7 to +12.2	Too early to tell	22 of 33	−8.8%	−32.5% to +13.1%	−$301on 25 picks	6
23 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)	−$293on 34 picks	−9.7−30.9 to +10.8	Too early to tell	23 of 34	−8.6%	−30.9% to +12.2%	−$90on 33 picks	6
24 Artem MMA	−$302on 23 picks	−14.2−41.2 to +10.9	Too early to tell	15 of 23	−13.1%	−39.8% to +12.4%	−$346on 14 picks	6
25 Andrew Richardson	−$337on 33 picks	−11.3−33.5 to +10.4	Too early to tell	22 of 33	−10.2%	−32.4% to +10.5%	−$191on 31 picks	11
26 MMA JOEY	−$361on 51 picks	−8.2−26.5 to +8.4	Too early to tell	35 of 51	−7.1%	−25.2% to +10.7%	−$179on 48 picks	10
27 Uselyis	−$365on 21 picks	−18.5−47.9 to +8.9	Too early to tell	13 of 21	−17.4%	−45.6% to +10.3%	−$229on 16 picks	4
28 JakeGerberMMA	−$375on 80 picks	−5.8−19.4 to +8.2	Too early to tell	57 of 80	−4.7%	−18.6% to +8.5%	−$316on 69 picks	13

The average analyst row counts each fight once: on every fight, the average return of the analysts who picked it, then the average over fights. All 2,486 picks added together return −8.9%, because a few big upsets that most analysts missed weigh on every pick that missed them.

No favourite-on-the-same-fights column here: on these picks the analyst is already on the favourite. Badges compare each row with backing every favourite in the study period instead; that baseline is taken as a fixed average, so its own luck is not in the range.

Underdog picks only

When this analyst backs the underdog, do the upsets pay for the misses?

Window: 15 cards with a stored sportsbook price, 14 June 2026 to 24 October 2026 (138 fights).
Price: the last sportsbook consensus captured before the card (at least 3 books); each pick is settled at the median book’s odds for the fighter it backed, bookmaker margin included. No individual book or price is shown.
Who is listed: analysts with at least 10 priced picks on this board (10 of 162). A badge needs at least 50 picks and compares the analyst with backing the favourite on the same fights, not with zero.
Starts sorted by: profit, high to low. With JavaScript, select Analyst to sort A to Z; built rank numbers disappear after sorting. Leading #1–#3 rank the top 3 by their worst case against the baseline (the low end of their 95% range), not by this column.

How far ahead of backing the favourite on the same fights, per $100 bet. Dot: best estimate. Line: 95% range. Right of the favourite rule is ahead. Top 10 by their worst case (the low end of the range), the same order as Leading; every row is in the table below.

Bedtime MMA Leading #1+83.6−5.3 to +171.4
The MMA Guru Leading #2+10.8−68.8 to +95.5
FIGHT//AI−51.6−93.6 to −5.8
AJ Devito−7.7−93.8 to +82.6
HopperMMA−22.2−106.1 to +67.4
We Want Picks−47.5−117.4 to +30.0
DFS By The Numbers−55.4−138.3 to +30.3
JakeGerberMMA−50.8−149.6 to +56.8
Chris Schweppe−52.7−149.7 to +61.2
Half The Battle−35.0−153.3 to +95.7

Underdog picks only: baselines first, followed by listed analysts
Analyst	Profit on $100 a pick	Favourite on the same fights	Ahead of the favourite, per $100 (95% range)	Badge (against the favourite, same fights)	Record	Return per $100 (ROI)	95% range of ROI	Polymarket check	Cards
Back the favourite in every fight	+$150on 138 fights	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline	101 of 138	+1.1%	−9.5% to +11.4%	not applicable	not applicable
Back the underdog in every fight	−$1,753on 138 fights	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline	37 of 138	−12.7%	−39.2% to +18.9%	not applicable	not applicable
Average analyst162 analysts, each fight counted once	not applicable	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline	621 pickson 126 fights	−14.3%	−42.8% to +18.4%	not applicable	not applicable
1 Bedtime MMA Leading #1	+$1,174on 23 picks	−$749	+83.6−5.3 to +171.4	Too early to tell	13 of 23	+51.0%	−6.3% to +108.2%	+$1,262on 22 picks	10
2 The MMA Guru Leading #2	−$79on 19 picks	−$284	+10.8−68.8 to +95.5	Too early to tell	8 of 19	−4.2%	−54.1% to +48.4%	+$26on 19 picks	10
3 Half The Battle	−$236on 11 picks	+$150	−35.0−153.3 to +95.7	Too early to tell	3 of 11	−21.5%	−100.0% to +64.9%	−$153on 11 picks	7
4 AJ Devito	−$246on 18 picks	−$108	−7.7−93.8 to +82.6	Too early to tell	6 of 18	−13.7%	−67.3% to +46.6%	−$189on 18 picks	7
5 HopperMMA	−$332on 18 picks	+$68	−22.2−106.1 to +67.4	Too early to tell	6 of 18	−18.4%	−67.4% to +37.9%	−$325on 17 picks	8
6 JakeGerberMMA	−$423on 11 picks	+$136	−50.8−149.6 to +56.8	Too early to tell	3 of 11	−38.5%	−100.0% to +26.2%	−$377on 9 picks	8
7 Chris Schweppe	−$453on 15 picks	+$338	−52.7−149.7 to +61.2	Too early to tell	3 of 15	−30.2%	−100.0% to +58.4%	+$22on 12 picks	5
8 DFS By The Numbers	−$543on 14 picks	+$232	−55.4−138.3 to +30.3	Too early to tell	4 of 14	−38.8%	−84.7% to +10.4%	−$525on 12 picks	10
9 We Want Picks	−$787on 22 picks	+$259	−47.5−117.4 to +30.0	Too early to tell	6 of 22	−35.8%	−78.0% to +9.7%	−$571on 16 picks	9
10 FIGHT//AI	−$3,121on 77 picks	+$854	−51.6−93.6 to −5.8	Behind so far	13 of 77	−40.5%	−70.2% to −6.6%	−$2,327on 71 picks	13

The average analyst row counts each fight once: on every fight, the average return of the analysts who picked it, then the average over fights. All 621 picks added together return −24.2%, because a few big upsets that most analysts missed weigh on every pick that missed them.

Who picks the most winners

How often is this analyst right, and how does that compare with backing the favourite in the same fights?

Window: every resolved pick from 259 analysts on 56 cards, 20 April 2019 to 24 October 2026.
Favourite: named by the sportsbook consensus where one qualifies (138 fights), otherwise by the reconstructed Polymarket price (136 fights). Only who was favoured is used here, never a price.
Who is listed: analysts with at least 50 resolved picks (43). A badge rests on the same-fights comparison and needs at least 50 of those fights.
Sorted by: hit rate, high to low. Leading #1–#3 rank the top 3 by their worst case against the baseline (the low end of their 95% range), not by this column.

How far ahead of the favourite on the same fights, in percentage points of picks right. Dot: best estimate. Line: 95% range. Right of the favourite rule is ahead. Top 10 by their worst case (the low end of the range), the same order as Leading; every row is in the table below.

KennyOkoyeMMA Leading #1+3.1−6.3 to +12.5
KingofCrackdown5095 Leading #2+6.7−6.7 to +20.0
Angelo Bodetti Leading #3+3.8−7.7 to +15.4
TheWeasle0.0−7.9 to +7.9
Bedtime MMA−1.4−9.5 to +6.8
Jimbo Ortega MMA+5.0−10.0 to +20.0
Livid Larry MMA+5.0−10.0 to +20.0
DFS By The Numbers−4.9−10.6 to +1.4
The MMA Guru−2.7−10.7 to +5.3
JakeGerberMMA−5.3−11.5 to +0.9

Who picks the most winners: baselines first, then every listed analyst by hit rate
Analyst	Record	Hit rate	Same fights with odds: analyst vs favourite	Ahead of the favourite, points (95% range)	Upset calls landed	Cards	Badge
Back the favourite in every fight	195 of 274 fights with odds	71.2%	not applicable	–	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline
Average analysteach fight counted once, same fights	274 fights	62.4%	not applicable	–	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline
All picks, all analysts	4,238 of 7,432 picks	57.0%	not applicable	–	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline
1 Bedtime MMA	132 of 185 picks	71.4%	101 vs 103of 147 fights	−1.4 (−9.5 to +6.8)	16 of 34	19	Too early to tell
2 TheWeasle	115 of 163 picks	70.6%	68 vs 68of 101 fights	0.0 (−7.9 to +7.9)	9 of 18	23	Too early to tell
3 Jimbo Ortega MMA	38 of 56 picks	67.9%	15 vs 14of 20 fights	+5.0 (−10.0 to +20.0)	2 of 3	5	Too early to tell
4 Lucas Tracy	44 of 65 picks	67.7%	26 vs 30of 43 fights	−9.3 (−25.6 to +7.0)	5 of 14	9	Too early to tell
5 MMA Lock of the Night	85 of 126 picks	67.5%	34 vs 33of 49 fights	+2.0 (−12.2 to +16.3)	7 of 13	20	Too early to tell
6 Michael Chiesa	50 of 75 picks	66.7%	33 vs 39of 51 fights	−11.8 (−21.6 to −2.0)	1 of 8	8	Behind so far
7 AJ Devito	175 of 264 picks	66.3%	89 vs 94of 124 fights	−4.0 (−12.1 to +4.0)	11 of 27	29	Too early to tell
8 KennyOkoyeMMA Leading #1	43 of 65 picks	66.2%	42 vs 40of 64 fights	+3.1 (−6.3 to +12.5)	6 of 10	12	Too early to tell
9 The MMA Guru	213 of 322 picks	66.1%	101 vs 105of 150 fights	−2.7 (−10.7 to +5.3)	16 of 36	46	Too early to tell
10 JakeGerberMMA	101 of 154 picks	65.6%	73 vs 79of 113 fights	−5.3 (−11.5 to +0.9)	4 of 14	16	Too early to tell
11 DFS By The Numbers	112 of 173 picks	64.7%	93 vs 100of 142 fights	−4.9 (−10.6 to +1.4)	6 of 19	19	Too early to tell
12 We Want Picks	93 of 145 picks	64.1%	90 vs 102of 140 fights	−8.6 (−16.4 to 0.0)	11 of 34	17	Too early to tell
13 138 MMA	42 of 66 picks	63.6%	25 vs 28of 40 fights	−7.5 (−25.0 to +10.0)	5 of 13	7	Too early to tell
14 Mate Bersenadze	33 of 52 picks	63.5%	10 vs 10of 15 fights	0.0 (−20.0 to +20.0)	1 of 2	5	Too early to tell
15 Drake Burden	62 of 98 picks	63.3%	41 vs 42of 62 fights	−1.6 (−12.9 to +8.1)	5 of 11	17	Too early to tell
16 Livid Larry MMA	34 of 54 picks	63.0%	16 vs 15of 20 fights	+5.0 (−10.0 to +20.0)	2 of 3	12	Too early to tell
17 MMA JOEY	78 of 125 picks	62.4%	57 vs 62of 92 fights	−5.4 (−14.1 to +3.3)	6 of 17	17	Too early to tell
18 HopperMMA	92 of 148 picks	62.2%	72 vs 82of 113 fights	−8.8 (−16.8 to −0.9)	6 of 22	17	Behind so far
19 James Lynch	36 of 59 picks	61.0%	20 vs 21of 35 fights	−2.9 (−14.3 to +5.7)	1 of 3	7	Too early to tell
20 Jake Letarski	42 of 69 picks	60.9%	27 vs 31of 45 fights	−8.9 (−22.2 to +4.4)	3 of 10	15	Too early to tell
21 James Blissett	48 of 79 picks	60.8%	35 vs 34of 52 fights	+1.9 (−11.5 to +15.4)	6 of 11	13	Too early to tell
22 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)	41 of 69 picks	59.4%	33 vs 38of 57 fights	−8.8 (−21.1 to +3.5)	4 of 13	8	Too early to tell
23 MMA Mathletes	32 of 54 picks	59.3%	15 vs 16of 25 fights	−4.0 (−20.0 to +8.0)	1 of 3	5	Too early to tell
24 KingofCrackdown5095 Leading #2	37 of 63 picks	58.7%	21 vs 19of 30 fights	+6.7 (−6.7 to +20.0)	3 of 4	7	Too early to tell
25 Kunath	38 of 65 picks	58.5%	19 vs 22of 30 fights	−10.0 (−26.7 to +6.7)	2 of 7	8	Too early to tell
26 Angelo Bodetti Leading #3	29 of 50 picks	58.0%	17 vs 16of 26 fights	+3.8 (−7.7 to +15.4)	2 of 3	5	Too early to tell
27 Artem MMA	55 of 95 picks	57.9%	32 vs 40of 57 fights	−14.0 (−26.3 to −3.5)	2 of 12	11	Behind so far
28 Mike Finch	31 of 54 picks	57.4%	24 vs 27of 41 fights	−7.3 (−22.0 to +9.8)	4 of 11	9	Too early to tell
29 Jon Litterine	70 of 124 picks	56.5%	32 vs 44of 65 fights	−18.5 (−30.8 to −6.2)	4 of 20	19	Behind so far
30 Fight Productions	37 of 66 picks	56.1%	17 vs 22of 33 fights	−15.2 (−30.3 to 0.0)	1 of 7	9	Too early to tell
31 Andrew Richardson	37 of 66 picks	56.1%	35 vs 40of 57 fights	−8.8 (−17.5 to 0.0)	1 of 7	16	Too early to tell
32 Chris Schweppe	53 of 99 picks	53.5%	31 vs 42of 61 fights	−18.0 (−31.1 to −4.9)	5 of 21	9	Behind so far
33 Cole Shelton	62 of 116 picks	53.4%	37 vs 49of 72 fights	−16.7 (−27.8 to −6.9)	2 of 16	19	Behind so far
34 Half The Battle	58 of 109 picks	53.2%	56 vs 68of 98 fights	−12.2 (−21.4 to −3.1)	5 of 22	12	Behind so far
35 Joe SunTszu	34 of 64 picks	53.1%	21 vs 30of 44 fights	−20.5 (−36.4 to −4.5)	3 of 15	14	Too early to tell
36 TonyHasDiedMMA	28 of 53 picks	52.8%	15 vs 19of 27 fights	−14.8 (−33.3 to 0.0)	1 of 6	7	Too early to tell
37 The MMA Yuda	30 of 58 picks	51.7%	13 vs 19of 32 fights	−18.8 (−34.4 to −3.1)	1 of 8	7	Too early to tell
38 Greedo Plays MMA	37 of 72 picks	51.4%	18 vs 24of 36 fights	−16.7 (−30.6 to −2.8)	1 of 8	12	Too early to tell
39 Walk The Line MMA	27 of 54 picks	50.0%	13 vs 15of 24 fights	−8.3 (−25.0 to +8.3)	1 of 4	7	Too early to tell
40 Jesse Holland	27 of 55 picks	49.1%	27 vs 35of 54 fights	−14.8 (−29.6 to 0.0)	5 of 18	17	Too early to tell
41 Uselyis	25 of 54 picks	46.3%	19 vs 25of 38 fights	−15.8 (−28.9 to −5.3)	0 of 6	7	Too early to tell
42 Chris Olson	32 of 71 picks	45.1%	23 vs 32of 50 fights	−18.0 (−34.0 to −2.0)	5 of 19	16	Behind so far
43 FIGHT//AI	49 of 153 picks	32.0%	33 vs 92of 120 fights	−49.2 (−62.5 to −35.0)	20 of 99	19	Behind so far

Backing the favourite every time picks the most winners. Analysts give up some hit rate to call upsets, which is where any profit has to come from, so read this board next to the money boards.

Who calls how fights end

When this analyst names the method, how often are the winner and the method both right?

Window: 3,440 picks that named a method, from 168 analysts on 368 fights, 26 October 2024 to 24 October 2026. Methods are grouped as KO/TKO, submission and decision; 7 picks on fights that ended another way (such as a disqualification) are left out.
Who is listed: analysts with at least 20 method calls (51). A badge rests on the comparison with other analysts on the same fights and needs at least 50 of those fights.
Sorted by: rate, high to low. Leading #1–#3 rank the top 3 by their worst case against the baseline (the low end of their 95% range), not by this column.
No money column: no method betting odds are stored, so this board compares analysts with each other and with simple rules, not with a market.

How far ahead of other analysts on the same fights, in percentage points of winner-and-method calls right. Dot: best estimate. Line: 95% range. Right of the other analysts rule is ahead. Top 10 by their worst case (the low end of the range), the same order as Leading; every row is in the table below.

Fight Productions Leading #1+11.6+1.5 to +21.8
Artem MMA Leading #2+5.5−1.6 to +13.3
Jimbo Ortega MMA Leading #3+7.9−2.0 to +18.2
Brian Campbell+10.7−2.1 to +23.8
TheWeasle+5.0−3.0 to +12.9
Mike Finch+7.8−3.3 to +18.9
DFS By The Numbers+2.4−3.6 to +8.3
JakeGerberMMA+2.4−3.9 to +9.0
Bedtime MMA+3.7−4.2 to +11.5
James Blissett+3.3−4.4 to +11.0

Who calls how fights end: baselines first, then every listed analyst by rate
Analyst	Winner and method right	Rate	Winner right	Finish calls landed	Ahead of other analysts on the same fights, points (95% range)	Badge
Average analysteach fight counted once	368 fights	36.5%	not applicable	not applicable	–	Baseline
Favourite by KO/TKO	75 of 252 fights	29.8%	not applicable	not applicable	–	Baseline
Favourite by submission	41 of 252 fights	16.3%	not applicable	not applicable	–	Baseline
Favourite by decision	63 of 252 fights	25.0%	not applicable	not applicable	–	Baseline
1 Jimbo Ortega MMA Leading #3	18 of 38 picks	47.4%	76.3%	11 of 21	+7.9 (−2.0 to +18.2)	Too early to tell
2 Livid Larry MMA	19 of 41 picks	46.3%	58.5%	16 of 24	+7.2 (−5.4 to +19.6)	Too early to tell
3 mmadbm	12 of 26 picks	46.2%	53.8%	10 of 16	+0.4 (−16.2 to +17.2)	Too early to tell
4 Bedtime MMA	60 of 137 picks	43.8%	70.8%	33 of 64	+3.7 (−4.2 to +11.5)	Too early to tell
5 Tom Feely	14 of 32 picks	43.8%	65.6%	6 of 15	+8.9 (−5.1 to +23.6)	Too early to tell
6 TheWeasle	47 of 109 picks	43.1%	69.7%	32 of 72	+5.0 (−3.0 to +12.9)	Too early to tell
7 Fight Productions Leading #1	28 of 65 picks	43.1%	56.9%	21 of 44	+11.6 (+1.5 to +21.8)	Strong record
8 AJ Devito	61 of 148 picks	41.2%	70.3%	38 of 88	−0.9 (−9.0 to +7.3)	Too early to tell
9 Andrew Richardson	27 of 66 picks	40.9%	56.1%	13 of 26	+3.2 (−6.2 to +13.1)	Too early to tell
10 Fite Feed	14 of 35 picks	40.0%	65.7%	9 of 22	+3.0 (−7.6 to +14.2)	Too early to tell
11 Aniki MMA	10 of 25 picks	40.0%	56.0%	7 of 16	−1.2 (−14.7 to +12.4)	Too early to tell
12 DFS By The Numbers	61 of 153 picks	39.9%	65.4%	36 of 82	+2.4 (−3.6 to +8.3)	Too early to tell
13 KingofCrackdown5095	21 of 54 picks	38.9%	59.3%	15 of 29	+2.2 (−7.1 to +12.0)	Too early to tell
14 JakeGerberMMA	39 of 101 picks	38.6%	64.4%	29 of 52	+2.4 (−3.9 to +9.0)	Too early to tell
15 HopperMMA	45 of 117 picks	38.5%	63.2%	26 of 58	+1.1 (−6.2 to +8.2)	Too early to tell
16 Mike Finch	15 of 39 picks	38.5%	56.4%	8 of 24	+7.8 (−3.3 to +18.9)	Too early to tell
17 MMA Lock of the Night	25 of 66 picks	37.9%	63.6%	18 of 48	+2.5 (−7.0 to +12.4)	Too early to tell
18 Brian Campbell	13 of 35 picks	37.1%	57.1%	7 of 25	+10.7 (−2.1 to +23.8)	Too early to tell
19 Lucas Tracy	10 of 27 picks	37.0%	59.3%	10 of 22	+0.8 (−13.8 to +15.3)	Too early to tell
20 Artem MMA Leading #2	30 of 82 picks	36.6%	57.3%	20 of 49	+5.5 (−1.6 to +13.3)	Strong record
21 The MMA Guru	62 of 175 picks	35.4%	66.3%	47 of 126	+0.9 (−6.7 to +8.1)	Too early to tell
22 MMA Mathletes	7 of 20 picks	35.0%	55.0%	4 of 10	−0.2 (−15.4 to +13.5)	Too early to tell
23 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)	15 of 43 picks	34.9%	60.5%	8 of 22	+0.3 (−10.6 to +11.6)	Too early to tell
24 Kasper MMA	11 of 32 picks	34.4%	56.3%	8 of 16	+2.3 (−8.7 to +13.2)	Too early to tell
25 Kunath	17 of 50 picks	34.0%	60.0%	10 of 36	−2.9 (−13.4 to +7.5)	Too early to tell
26 James Blissett	26 of 78 picks	33.3%	61.5%	16 of 44	+3.3 (−4.4 to +11.0)	Too early to tell
27 Half The Battle	10 of 30 picks	33.3%	46.7%	7 of 22	−10.8 (−25.5 to +2.5)	Too early to tell
28 FightStudy	8 of 24 picks	33.3%	45.8%	7 of 15	+6.1 (−6.1 to +18.6)	Too early to tell
29 Mate Bersenadze	17 of 52 picks	32.7%	63.5%	11 of 26	−6.0 (−15.3 to +3.7)	Too early to tell
30 Greedo Plays MMA	19 of 59 picks	32.2%	50.8%	11 of 32	−1.3 (−10.3 to +7.6)	Too early to tell
31 Anatoly Pimentel	7 of 22 picks	31.8%	54.5%	6 of 14	+3.0 (−8.8 to +16.4)	Too early to tell
32 Fight Genie (GPT)	8 of 27 picks	29.6%	55.6%	3 of 11	−2.7 (−11.7 to +5.3)	Too early to tell
33 Fight Genie (Claude)	8 of 27 picks	29.6%	59.3%	3 of 8	−2.7 (−11.3 to +5.4)	Too early to tell
34 James Lynch	9 of 31 picks	29.0%	64.5%	5 of 9	−7.8 (−20.4 to +4.9)	Too early to tell
35 MMA JOEY	27 of 98 picks	27.6%	59.2%	18 of 54	−3.8 (−10.8 to +3.6)	Too early to tell
36 Jesse Holland	15 of 55 picks	27.3%	49.1%	9 of 34	−1.9 (−12.6 to +9.2)	Too early to tell
37 MMA JAWN	6 of 22 picks	27.3%	45.5%	5 of 12	−1.1 (−13.4 to +11.7)	Too early to tell
38 BetSam	7 of 26 picks	26.9%	57.7%	7 of 21	−2.7 (−15.2 to +9.1)	Too early to tell
39 Walk The Line MMA	11 of 41 picks	26.8%	46.3%	10 of 26	+0.2 (−8.4 to +8.7)	Too early to tell
40 Shakiel Mahjouri	10 of 38 picks	26.3%	52.6%	5 of 19	0.0 (−12.5 to +12.9)	Too early to tell
41 MMA.SOCIAL	7 of 27 picks	25.9%	55.6%	2 of 6	−6.5 (−19.5 to +6.4)	Too early to tell
42 Chris Schweppe	25 of 98 picks	25.5%	54.1%	17 of 51	−7.3 (−15.4 to +0.8)	Too early to tell
43 Uselyis	9 of 37 picks	24.3%	45.9%	8 of 24	−3.2 (−10.7 to +4.1)	Too early to tell
44 Michael Mormile	7 of 30 picks	23.3%	50.0%	3 of 15	−2.2 (−15.5 to +11.0)	Too early to tell
45 Brent Brookhouse	8 of 35 picks	22.9%	62.9%	2 of 17	−4.8 (−17.0 to +7.5)	Too early to tell
46 TonyHasDiedMMA	8 of 35 picks	22.9%	48.6%	6 of 24	+0.2 (−11.5 to +12.7)	Too early to tell
47 MMA Husky Hustler	6 of 28 picks	21.4%	64.3%	4 of 17	−14.6 (−25.6 to −4.8)	Too early to tell
48 Garrett Kerman	5 of 24 picks	20.8%	58.3%	2 of 6	−9.4 (−24.3 to +3.8)	Too early to tell
49 Bert MMA	5 of 24 picks	20.8%	37.5%	2 of 9	−7.3 (−24.7 to +11.1)	Too early to tell
50 Brandon K	6 of 30 picks	20.0%	46.7%	4 of 13	−7.6 (−18.6 to +3.4)	Too early to tell
51 Brandon Wise	6 of 35 picks	17.1%	42.9%	3 of 18	−10.9 (−24.9 to +3.0)	Too early to tell

Beat the market?

Does this analyst win more often than the betting market expected for the fighters they picked?

AJ Devito is likely ahead of the market: +7.5 wins per 100 picks above what the market expected (121 picks). Strong record: likely ahead of the market, though not yet proven beyond luck across all 65 analysts checked.

Measure: for each pick, the market’s chance that the picked fighter wins, with the market’s margin removed, is what the market expected. Wins minus that, per 100 picks. Zero means exactly what the market expected.
Price: the reconstructed Polymarket price for each fight, taken a set time before that fight’s own market resolved: 256 fights on 23 cards, 15 November 2025 to 10 October 2026. The sportsbook consensus is a separate cross-check column, never added in. No price is shown.
Who is listed: analysts with at least 20 Polymarket-priced picks (65 of 219). A badge needs at least 50 picks; a Strong record here also needs the sportsbook cross-check above zero over at least 20 picks.
Sorted by: wins above expected, high to low. Select a column heading to sort by it; the group rows stay on top. Leading #1–#3 rank the top 3 by their worst case against the baseline (the low end of their 95% range), not by this column.

Wins above what the market expected, per 100 picks. Dot: best estimate. Line: 95% range. Right of the market rule is ahead. Top 10 by their worst case (the low end of the range), the same order as Leading; every row is in the table below.

AJ Devito Leading #1+7.5−0.5 to +14.8
Bedtime MMA Leading #2+4.4−3.1 to +12.1
The MMA Guru Leading #3+3.7−4.2 to +11.0
TheWeasle+2.4−6.9 to +11.6
MMA Lock of the Night+5.7−7.7 to +18.4
We Want Picks+0.1−7.8 to +8.1
Drake Burden+4.6−8.8 to +17.2
DFS By The Numbers−2.0−10.1 to +5.9
HopperMMA−2.2−10.6 to +6.0
James Blissett+2.6−12.8 to +17.4

Beat the market: group rows first, then every listed analyst by wins above what the market expected
Analyst	Record	Market expected	Wins above expected, per 100 picks	95% range	Sportsbook cross-check, per 100 picks	Cards	Badge
All analystseach fight counted once	4,328 picks on 256 fights	2,721.5 wins	+0.4	−3.3 to +4.0	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline
All picks added together219 analysts	2,426 of 4,328 picks	2,721.5 wins	−6.8	–	not applicable	not applicable	Baseline
1 AJ Devito Leading #1	87 of 121 picks	78.0 wins	+7.5	−0.5 to +14.8	+5.6on 80 picks	14	Strong record
2 MMA Lock of the Night	32 of 47 picks	29.3 wins	+5.7	−7.7 to +18.4	+12.0on 37 picks	4	Too early to tell
3 Drake Burden	36 of 54 picks	33.5 wins	+4.6	−8.8 to +17.2	−8.2on 19 picks	10	Too early to tell
4 Bedtime MMA Leading #2	95 of 140 picks	88.8 wins	+4.4	−3.1 to +12.1	+12.6on 101 picks	16	Too early to tell
5 The MMA Guru Leading #3	96 of 144 picks	90.7 wins	+3.7	−4.2 to +11.0	+4.7on 97 picks	16	Too early to tell
6 KingofCrackdown5095	16 of 24 picks	15.3 wins	+2.9	−19.3 to +23.2	+1.1on 19 picks	3	Too early to tell
7 138 MMA	25 of 39 picks	23.9 wins	+2.8	−13.0 to +17.5	+2.8on 29 picks	5	Too early to tell
8 James Blissett	28 of 43 picks	26.9 wins	+2.6	−12.8 to +17.4	+7.2on 31 picks	10	Too early to tell
9 TheWeasle	65 of 97 picks	62.7 wins	+2.4	−6.9 to +11.6	+3.1on 57 picks	12	Too early to tell
10 Adam Martin	18 of 27 picks	17.6 wins	+1.5	−18.0 to +20.1	−2.7on 26 picks	3	Too early to tell
11 BetSam	16 of 25 picks	15.7 wins	+1.1	−17.1 to +18.9	−2.0on 23 picks	4	Too early to tell
12 We Want Picks	83 of 127 picks	82.8 wins	+0.1	−7.8 to +8.1	+1.5on 104 picks	16	Too early to tell
13 Daniel Vreeland	15 of 25 picks	15.1 wins	−0.3	−18.4 to +17.1	+14.3on 12 picks	11	Too early to tell
14 Angelo Bodetti	15 of 23 picks	15.2 wins	−0.8	−23.2 to +20.6	−0.9on 15 picks	2	Too early to tell
15 Lucas Tracy	25 of 42 picks	25.5 wins	−1.1	−15.3 to +13.3	−4.0on 26 picks	7	Too early to tell
16 MMA Husky Hustler	19 of 30 picks	19.5 wins	−1.6	−19.1 to +14.3	−0.6on 30 picks	3	Too early to tell
17 DFS By The Numbers	84 of 129 picks	86.6 wins	−2.0	−10.1 to +5.9	+1.2on 108 picks	16	Too early to tell
18 KennyOkoyeMMA	41 of 63 picks	42.4 wins	−2.2	−14.8 to +9.8	−1.5on 39 picks	11	Too early to tell
19 Kunath	16 of 27 picks	16.6 wins	−2.2	−20.5 to +15.6	+2.5on 26 picks	5	Too early to tell
20 HopperMMA	68 of 108 picks	70.4 wins	−2.2	−10.6 to +6.0	+3.3on 87 picks	14	Too early to tell
21 Brent Brookhouse	20 of 33 picks	20.8 wins	−2.4	−19.7 to +14.6	+4.0on 13 picks	7	Too early to tell
22 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)	33 of 56 picks	34.4 wins	−2.4	−14.6 to +9.4	−4.5on 43 picks	7	Too early to tell
23 Michael Chiesa	30 of 47 picks	31.3 wins	−2.7	−15.9 to +9.2	−1.2on 51 picks	6	Too early to tell
24 Pure Picks	17 of 29 picks	18.0 wins	−3.4	−20.6 to +14.5	−3.1on 27 picks	3	Too early to tell
25 Mike Finch	21 of 38 picks	22.4 wins	−3.6	−18.6 to +11.7	−1.2on 18 picks	8	Too early to tell
26 MMA JOEY	54 of 87 picks	57.3 wins	−3.8	−14.0 to +6.3	−3.1on 60 picks	11	Too early to tell
27 Jake Letarski	26 of 44 picks	27.7 wins	−3.8	−18.4 to +10.2	−16.7on 12 picks	9	Too early to tell
28 Andrew Richardson	34 of 55 picks	36.2 wins	−4.0	−15.5 to +7.5	−5.5on 36 picks	13	Too early to tell
29 JakeGerberMMA	63 of 100 picks	68.2 wins	−5.2	−14.4 to +3.8	−1.5on 91 picks	12	Too early to tell
30 Bert MMA	13 of 23 picks	14.2 wins	−5.4	−27.3 to +15.7	−2.2on 12 picks	2	Too early to tell
31 FIGHT//AI	30 of 112 picks	36.6 wins	−5.9	−13.4 to +2.0	−8.3on 88 picks	15	Too early to tell
32 Matthew Petela	11 of 23 picks	12.4 wins	−6.2	−27.8 to +15.6	−3.1on 13 picks	2	Too early to tell
33 Brian Campbell	18 of 33 picks	20.4 wins	−7.2	−24.1 to +9.7	−9.2on 13 picks	7	Too early to tell
34 PickemMMA	12 of 21 picks	13.5 wins	−7.2	−31.7 to +15.3	−9.1on 10 picks	3	Too early to tell
35 Half The Battle	54 of 95 picks	61.2 wins	−7.6	−16.6 to +1.8	−1.6on 74 picks	11	Too early to tell
36 Jesse Holland	27 of 54 picks	31.3 wins	−8.0	−20.5 to +5.2	−9.3on 24 picks	17	Too early to tell
37 Artem MMA	25 of 46 picks	28.8 wins	−8.2	−22.1 to +6.3	−14.1on 29 picks	7	Too early to tell
38 Shakiel Mahjouri	18 of 34 picks	20.8 wins	−8.4	−25.8 to +8.2	−15.9on 14 picks	8	Too early to tell
39 Chris Schweppe	25 of 50 picks	29.2 wins	−8.5	−22.0 to +4.6	−7.9on 48 picks	5	Too early to tell
40 Clenbat	13 of 24 picks	15.1 wins	−8.6	−29.3 to +11.3	−14.9on 14 picks	3	Too early to tell
41 Michael Mormile	17 of 33 picks	19.9 wins	−8.9	−26.2 to +7.8	−29.1on 11 picks	7	Too early to tell
42 Marcel Dorff	16 of 28 picks	18.5 wins	−8.9	−27.3 to +9.1	−1.0on 18 picks	4	Too early to tell
43 MikesMMAPicks	13 of 23 picks	15.0 wins	−8.9	−29.9 to +12.3	−8.7on 21 picks	2	Too early to tell
44 Zain Bando	12 of 23 picks	14.4 wins	−10.6	−32.9 to +9.3	−11.3on 12 picks	2	Too early to tell
45 Bookie Beatdown	18 of 35 picks	21.7 wins	−10.7	−27.9 to +6.0	−12.7on 26 picks	5	Too early to tell
46 Nick Kalikas	12 of 23 picks	14.5 wins	−10.9	−32.8 to +9.8	−12.5on 21 picks	2	Too early to tell
47 Michael Bisping	16 of 30 picks	19.3 wins	−11.1	−28.0 to +6.8	+0.9on 22 picks	6	Too early to tell
48 Chris Olson	23 of 50 picks	28.8 wins	−11.6	−25.4 to +2.2	−9.5on 11 picks	10	Too early to tell
49 Joe SunTszu	21 of 44 picks	26.3 wins	−12.0	−26.3 to +2.8	−21.8on 11 picks	9	Too early to tell
50 MMA Mathletes	12 of 22 picks	14.6 wins	−12.0	−33.5 to +9.0	−1.7on 15 picks	2	Too early to tell
51 James Lynch	17 of 32 picks	21.0 wins	−12.4	−30.0 to +5.1	−4.7on 24 picks	4	Too early to tell
52 Jon Litterine	26 of 55 picks	32.9 wins	−12.5	−25.1 to +0.2	−6.9on 21 picks	10	Too early to tell
53 Cole Shelton	30 of 62 picks	38.0 wins	−12.9	−24.8 to −1.3	−7.4on 28 picks	10	Behind so far
54 Walk The Line MMA	10 of 21 picks	12.9 wins	−13.6	−36.0 to +9.3	−10.0on 12 picks	4	Too early to tell
55 Andrew Sumian	11 of 23 picks	14.2 wins	−13.8	−35.8 to +6.9	−2.6on 13 picks	2	Too early to tell
56 Uselyis	16 of 31 picks	20.3 wins	−13.8	−30.8 to +3.0	−15.8on 26 picks	5	Too early to tell
57 Ground"N"Pound (Aaran)	10 of 20 picks	12.9 wins	−14.6	−38.2 to +8.0	−22.8on 9 picks	3	Too early to tell
58 Fight Productions	11 of 22 picks	14.2 wins	−14.6	−35.4 to +6.8	−7.1on 21 picks	5	Too early to tell
59 Brandon K	9 of 21 picks	12.4 wins	−16.1	−37.7 to +5.7	−34.4on 12 picks	3	Too early to tell
60 Alexander K. Lee	10 of 23 picks	14.0 wins	−17.5	−38.3 to +3.9	−18.5on 11 picks	2	Too early to tell
61 Brandon Wise	14 of 33 picks	20.0 wins	−18.1	−33.7 to −2.4	−11.6on 13 picks	7	Too early to tell
62 MMA JAWN	10 of 21 picks	14.1 wins	−19.4	−40.5 to +2.6	−21.8on 10 picks	3	Too early to tell
63 Greedo Plays MMA	11 of 25 picks	16.0 wins	−19.8	−39.0 to −0.7	−12.1on 24 picks	8	Too early to tell
64 The MMA Yuda	8 of 22 picks	13.9 wins	−26.8	−46.7 to −6.1	−26.7on 21 picks	4	Too early to tell
65 Chris White	8 of 23 picks	15.0 wins	−30.5	−48.0 to −11.8	−21.9on 21 picks	2	Too early to tell

The group row counts each fight once, so one heavily picked card cannot dominate it; adding every pick together instead gives −6.8 per 100 picks. The market price is a snapshot before the fight, not the price when each analyst posted.

The latest card: UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Who got the latest card right? One card is never evidence of skill, so this board has no badges: it shows everyone who picked at least half of it, top and bottom.

Card: UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, 24 October 2026: 14 fights picked.
Who is listed: analysts who picked at least 7 of the 14 (54).
No favourite row yet: a stored price names the favourite on 1 of the 14 fights; the row appears once at least half the card is priced.

How to read it: each numbered column is one fight, in card order, named in this key. right, wrong, no pick. Sorted by share of picks right.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov
Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston
Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev
Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov
Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun
Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos
Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon
Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari

The latest card: each listed analyst's record and a mark for every fight in card order
Analyst	Record on the card	Fight 1: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev	Fight 2: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili	Fight 3: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita	Fight 4: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes	Fight 5: Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov	Fight 6: Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	Fight 7: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev	Fight 8: Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston	Fight 9: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev	Fight 10: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov	Fight 11: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun	Fight 12: Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos	Fight 13: Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon	Fight 14: Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari
The Oracle (Blueprint MMA)	11 of 14 picks	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	right
Bedtime MMA	11 of 14 picks	right	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	right
JakeGerberMMA	11 of 14 picks	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	right	right	right
DFS By The Numbers	11 of 14 picks	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	right	right	right
Jimbo Ortega MMA	11 of 14 picks	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	right
Fight Genie (Claude)	11 of 14 picks	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	right
MMA Mathletes	7 of 9 picks	right	right	wrong	no pick	right	right	right	wrong	right	no pick	right	no pick	no pick	no pick
Steve Garcia	6 of 8 picks	right	right	right	wrong	no pick	right	no pick	no pick	right	wrong	right	no pick	no pick	no pick
The Cage Doctor	6 of 8 picks	right	right	no pick	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	right	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick
Fight Productions	8 of 11 picks	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	no pick	no pick	no pick
HopperMMA	10 of 14 picks	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right
Chris Schweppe	10 of 14 picks	right	wrong	right	right	right	right	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	right
The MMA Guru	10 of 14 picks	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	right
Tom Feely	10 of 14 picks	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right
Fight Genie (GPT)	10 of 14 picks	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	right
FightIQ	10 of 14 picks	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right
Fite Feed	10 of 14 picks	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	right
UFC Predict — Logistic Core	10 of 14 picks	right	right	right	right	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right
138 MMA	10 of 14 picks	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	right	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right
James Blissett	9 of 13 picks	right	right	no pick	wrong	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	right	right	right	right
Lucas Tracy	8 of 12 picks	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	no pick	no pick	wrong
UFC Predict — Main + Market	9 of 14 picks	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right
UFC Predict — CatBoost	9 of 14 picks	right	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right
MMA.SOCIAL	9 of 14 picks	right	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	right	wrong	right
Greedo Plays MMA	7 of 11 picks	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	no pick	no pick	no pick
Next Fight model	5 of 8 picks	wrong	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick	right	right	no pick	right	wrong	right	no pick	wrong	right
Michael Chiesa	8 of 13 picks	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	right	no pick	right	right	right	right
MMA Intel	8 of 14 picks	right	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	right
UFC Predict — LightGBM	8 of 14 picks	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right
UFC Predict — XGBoost	8 of 14 picks	wrong	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	right
UFC Predict — Ensemble	8 of 14 picks	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	right
FIGHT//AI	8 of 14 picks	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	right	right	right
Jon Litterine	8 of 14 picks	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	right
Mike Finch	8 of 14 picks	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	right
Fight Society	4 of 7 picks	right	right	no pick	wrong	wrong	right	right	wrong	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick
Artem MMA	6 of 11 picks	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	no pick	no pick	no pick
TonyHasDiedMMA	6 of 11 picks	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	no pick	no pick	no pick
KingofCrackdown5095	7 of 14 picks	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right
Mate Bersenadze	7 of 14 picks	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right
MMA Lock of the Night	7 of 14 picks	right	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	wrong	wrong	right
Livid Larry MMA	7 of 14 picks	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right
Kunath	7 of 14 picks	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	wrong	right	right
Tim Edwards	6 of 12 picks	wrong	wrong	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	no pick	right	right	right	no pick
DON SMOKE MMA	4 of 8 picks	right	right	no pick	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	right	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick
Andy Lang	6 of 13 picks	no pick	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	wrong	right
Aniki MMA	5 of 11 picks	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	no pick	no pick	no pick
Voice of MMA	5 of 11 picks	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	no pick	no pick	no pick
Kasper MMA	5 of 11 picks	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	no pick	no pick	no pick
Brandon K	4 of 9 picks	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	right	right	wrong	no pick	right	wrong	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick
The Lab Analytics	6 of 14 picks	wrong	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	right	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	right	wrong	right
AJ Devito	6 of 14 picks	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	right	right
Combat Edge Model	3 of 7 picks	wrong	wrong	no pick	no pick	wrong	right	right	wrong	right	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick	no pick
Half The Battle	3 of 11 picks	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	wrong	right	no pick	no pick	no pick
Walk The Line MMA	2 of 8 picks	wrong	right	wrong	wrong	wrong	no pick	right	no pick	wrong	no pick	wrong	no pick	no pick	no pick

What the badges mean

One written rule, applied the same way on every board. Each badge is a word, never only a colour.

Proven
Ahead of the board’s baseline and still ahead after allowing for how many analysts are on the board (Holm’s correction across every listed row, adjusted p below 0.05), with at least 50 picks. Very unlikely to be luck. On the boards today: 0 rows.
Strong record
At least 50 picks and ahead of the board’s baseline in about 9 of 10 re-runs of the analyst’s own picks: likely real, not yet proven beyond luck. The money boards also need a profit at Polymarket prices (at least 20 picks); Beat the market also needs the sportsbook check above zero (at least 20 picks). On the boards today: 5 rows.
Too early to tell
Everything else, including every row under 50 picks. Could easily be luck either way. On the boards today: 222 rows.
Behind so far
At least 50 picks and the whole 95% range below the board’s baseline. Never used in a headline. On the boards today: 12 rows.
Leading
The top 3 on each board, ranked by how far ahead of its baseline they are at the low end of their 95% range, so a long record counts for more than a short streak. A ranking, not proof: someone always leads, and the badge beside them says how sure that lead is. On the boards today: 17 rows.
Baseline
What you would have got without any analyst: backing the favourite (or the underdog) in every fight, or the average analyst. An analyst adds value only by beating these rows.

How to read the boards

The same rules for every row.

Every pick counts as a $100 bet on the fighter the analyst named, at the median sportsbook price stored shortly before the card. At decimal odds of 3.00 a winner makes $200; at 1.40 it makes $40; a loser always costs $100.

Profit and return always come with the number of picks. +$500 on 20 picks means much less than +$500 on 200.

The Baseline rows are what you would have got without any analyst: backing the favourite in every fight, and the average analyst. An analyst adds value only by beating those. “Favourite on the same fights” asks what backing the favourite would have made in just the fights that analyst picked, which takes out the luck of picking easy cards.

A 95% range is how far the result could plausibly move with different luck on the same kind of fights; the bar marks zero, and the numbers are printed beside it. Badges: today no row is Proven and 5 rows have a Strong record, across 239 listed rows.

The Polymarket check repeats the analyst’s money record on a different price: one reconstructed from Polymarket’s public trading history, which is a prediction market, not a sportsbook. It re-prices the same picks the row shows, wherever that fight also has a Polymarket price, so its pick count can be lower than the row’s; it is never added to the sportsbook figure.

“Beat the market?” asks a different question from the money boards: did the analyst’s picks win more often than the betting market expected? For each pick, the market’s chance for the picked fighter, with its margin removed, is what it expected; the board shows wins minus that, per 100 picks, on the Polymarket price, with the sportsbook price as a separate cross-check. Its group row counts each fight once.

There is no “hot form” board. A short run of recent picks swings on one or two upsets, and this study has no test yet showing that an analyst’s recent form predicts their next card, so it stays out until one does. One card is never evidence of skill.

Prices are snapshots from shortly before the card, not the price when the analyst posted, and real bets carry fees and limits. This is a record of the past, not betting advice.

The whole record

As of 24 October 2026, 259 analysts had made 7,432 resolved winner picks across 56 events and 487 fights. 4,238 were right — 57.0%.

Resolved winner picks, and the logged picks that were not counted, by reason
Picks logged	Count
Resolved winner picks (the denominator above)	7,432
Not counted: draws and no-contests	72
Not counted: analyst did not commit to a side	13
Not counted: fight cancelled	57
Not counted: fight not yet settled	366
Not counted: source not shown to predate the fight	201

No margin of error is quoted for this rate. Many analysts pick the same fights, so the picks are not independent, and a conventional interval would look more certain than the data is. Picks are pooled across analysts, so an analyst who logs more picks counts for more; this is the record of the picks, not an average of the analysts.

That rate is not a verdict on its own. Only the 6,016 picks on fights with a known pre-fight price can be set against the favourite. Those picks were right 3,320 times (55.2%). Picking the favourite on every one of those same picks would have been right 3,841 times (63.8%). Individual picks trail the favourite on these fights; 1,423 of them backed the underdog, and those were right 31.7% of the time. Whether the analyst majority does better than the favourite is a separate question, answered below.

Does the analyst majority beat the favourite?

Measured on the same fights, so the two rows are directly comparable.

The two methods picked the same fighter on 201 of the 236 compared fights, so they could only differ on the other 35: the fights where most analysts backed the underdog. On those, the analyst majority was right 14 times and the favourite 21. That is well within what chance alone would produce, so this data does not show either method is better (sign test, p = 0.311).

The analyst majority and the pre-fight favourite, scored on the same fights
Method, on the same 236 fights	Right	Share
Pick whichever side most analysts picked	156 of 236	66.1%
Pick the pre-fight favourite	163 of 236	69.1%

Included: fights with a known pre-fight price where at least 3 analysts made a resolved pick and the split was not exactly even. Left out, and counted: 10 exactly split fights and 40 with fewer than 3 priced picks.

Favourite picks and underdog picks

Only picks on fights with a known pre-fight price.

Picks that backed the favourite and picks that backed the underdog, with how often each was right
Pick	Right	Share
Picked the favourite	2,869 of 4,593	62.5%
Picked the underdog	451 of 1,423	31.7%

6,016 of 7,432 resolved picks carry a known pre-fight price; the other 1,416 are left out of this table because a favourite cannot be named for them. A favourite pick being right more often than an underdog pick says how the fights went, not which analysts are better.

How this was measured

So you can check it.

A pick counts once its fight has a winner, and it is right when it named that winner. It uses the same definition as every analyst’s track record; nothing here is scored separately. Every pick is logged with its source and the way it was verified, shown on the analyst’s own page. See the full methodology.

Every counted pick was on record before its fight. A pick counts only when its source is dated before the fight began: 6,628 dated by the article or video they came from; 169 dated by the upload date of their registered video; 635 dated by the day a prediction-tracker screenshot recorded them. A source dated only by its day is read as the end of that day, so a same-day source never counts as earlier than a fight it might have followed.

Where the prices come from. The favourite is whichever fighter the market gave the better chance before the fight. The comparison covers 236 of the 487 fights that have resolved picks. Of those 236, 48 use a sportsbook consensus that passes the site’s stricter pre-event freshness rule and 188 use a price reconstructed afterwards from Polymarket’s public trading history. The boards above accept the last sportsbook consensus captured before the card, so they name a sportsbook favourite on more fights than this section does. A reconstructed price is not a sportsbook line and is not presented as one. In this section it is used only to say which fighter was the favourite; no individual odds are shown anywhere on the page. Either price is taken shortly before the event or the fight begins, so it can reflect news such as weigh-ins or injuries that an earlier pick could not have known, and any fight the market saw as close to even still counts as having a favourite.

The sign test. On a fight where the two methods disagree, exactly one of them is right. The sign test asks how often a split at least as lopsided as the one observed would appear if each method were equally likely to be the one that was right.

What this cannot tell you. The analysts are the ones this site tracks, not a random sample of MMA analysts. The record covers only the fights they chose to pick, and the comparison only those with a known price; fights with a price may differ from fights without one, and nothing here tests that. This section is not a ranking of analysts; the boards above are, under the badge rule. None of it is betting advice: it says how the logged picks turned out, not whether any future pick is a good bet.